Marquette Poll, WI: Sanders 49, HRC 45

The likely Democratic voters are split very much along age, Sanders leads 83-12 in the 18-29 demo, but trails 31-63 in the over 60+ demo.

Sanders trails with non-white voters, 42-58, but nonetheless leads Milwaukee City/County by 49-45. He leads the "Madison Media Market" 52-42, but his greatest regional lead is in the north and west of the state (much of which is rural): 54-42.

The bottom line is that the only way HRC takes Wisconsin is if there's a significant effect from voter suppression. A lot of those 18-29 year-olds may not have taken care of getting the ID they need, and Madison has had numerous problems with insufficient ballots and long lines over the last several elections.

Other notable numbers are that Sanders beats Cruz, Trump and Kasich, 52-39, 54-35, and 46-44. Interestingly, in the poll of likely republican primary voters, Cruz, Trump and Kasich polled 40/30/21.

The most significant number in the entire poll might be this one: Clinton 39, Kasich 48. Can we finally chuck the electability argument in the dumpster? Clinton ties Cruz, 44-44. The only Republican she beats is Trump, 47-37. Ugh.

It's pretty clear that Kasich is still mostly unknown, and is successfully projecting his "I'm a reasonable guy" image. When asked about their comfort level with the idea of the various candidates actually being President, Kasich rated only 10% as "Very Uncomfortable". The next best was Sanders, with 36% Very Uncomfortable. Even among Democrats, only 17% rated Kasich as VU.

Very disturbingly, Ron Johnson has closed the gap in the Senate race, and trails Feingold 47-42 -- 5 weeks ago, it was 49-37.

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The thing about Kasich is he is still unknown. If you look at his favorables he still has 40% undecideds or something. So he numbers can break any way.

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Lady Libertine's picture

I think a GE between Bernie and Kasich would be, lets say interesting. (civil war in many families, lol)

really hope Feingold pulls it off.

REALLY hope Bernie takes WI.

thanks for this post.

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unfavorable numbers are REALLY troubling for Clinton.

For the GOP this poll and the California poll over the weekend suggest that Trump has finally started his descent.

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pfiore8's picture

and don't hate me, but i'd take trump over kasich or cruz.

cruz is deluded. and kasich is the real deal: he's not crazy and he is committed. he's the one who unnerves me the most.

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“There are moments which are not calculable, and cannot be assessed in words; they live on in the solution of memory… ”
― Lawrence Durrell, "Justine"

detroitmechworks's picture

Preferably a Ficus.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

pfiore8's picture

but you did have me going there for one half of a second

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“There are moments which are not calculable, and cannot be assessed in words; they live on in the solution of memory… ”
― Lawrence Durrell, "Justine"

detroitmechworks's picture

But I for one would bet my Tush...
On seeing one that is a Bush.

(Apologies to Mad Magazine in the 80's. Back when it was still GOOD.)

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

A ficus is a tree, not a bush.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

Unabashed Liberal's picture

that keeps me up the most at night, too.

IMO, he makes Trump look like a piker, in some respects.

If somehow, Repubs manage to nominate him, I'll spend the next 4 plus months doing nothing but posting on his ultra fiscal conservative history, and his proposals to 'save' Social Security and Medicare.

Whew!

Thanks for this essay, UR.

Mollie


"I believe in the redemptive powers of a dog’s love. It is in recognition of each dog’s potential to lift the human spirit, and, therefore, to change society for the better, that I fight to make sure every street dog has its day.”
--Stasha Wong, Secretary, Save Our Street Dogs (SOSD)

National Mill Dog Rescue (NMDR) - Dogs Available For Adoption

Misty May - NMDR

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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.

Gerrit's picture

got a superPAC and doesn't sound the same as he used to. I sure hope I heard wrong. He'll lose if he doesn't run as Feingold 101.

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

causes during his time in the wilderness. However, the PAC suspended operations when he announced his Senate candidacy. It wasn't a particularly successfully organization.

Last June he proposed a "badger pledge" to control superPAC spending in the race. I don't know what the status is of that:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/12/russ-feingold-super-pac_n_75733...

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.