Stopping the spread of the Coronavirus
The New England Journal of Medicine just published a paper on the stability of SARS-CoV-2 (the cause of COVID-19) outside the human body.
aerosols > 3 hours
plastic > 72 hours
stainless steel > 72 hours
copper 4 hours
cardboard 24 hours
After a bit more than an hour the amount of virus in an aerosol decreases by about half. The amount of virus on plastic and stainless steel decreases by half about every 6 hours. The temperature, humidity and type of plastic would be expected to affect the results.
Doremalen, Bushmaker, and Morris (2020) NEJM (DOI: 10.1056/NEJMc2004973)
UV light, alcohol, heat, or soap and water can be used to inactivate the virus. Wiping the grocery cart with alcohol wipes is clearly a good idea. Discarding plastic packaging and then washing hands with soap and warm water is also wise.
One inexpensive way to slow down the spread of the virus is to hang our laundry out to dry in the sunlight. UV light does destroy pathogenic viruses and other types of germs. Some towns and cities will have to rescind ordinances about clotheslines, but exposing laundry to sunlight would help disinfect things for people who have a place to hang it out.
Laundromats worry me as a source of viral spread. Soap and hot water can inactivate the virus but the clothes could still get contaminated again in the laundry carts and on the folding tables. Sometimes laundromats can be crowded. Sick people will still need to have clean clothes and people spread the virus even before they have any symptoms.
Sunlight will fade expensive clothes and the bright colors of the guest towels, but it would be great if everyone could hang out blue jeans, family towels, T-shirts and used face masks.
https://iiif.wellcomecollection.org/image/L0016623.jpg/full/full/0/defau...
Wilson "The plague...": people fleeing from plague. Credit: Wellcome Collection. Attribution 4.0
Pandemics are nothing new. During the early modern period bubonic plague had a high mortality rate and no real cure. People did not know about the involvement of fleas in spreading plague. When the plague struck England many of the nobility and wealthy would flee to the countryside carrying the plague with them. Middle class people were commonly quarantined in their houses for 40 days after the last death in the household. Poorer families could be taken to pesthouses on the outskirts of town until they died or recovered. If a servant to a better-off family fell ill they could be sent to the pesthouse outside town to decrease the risk to the rest of the household. Food and financial support were supposed to be provided, but quarantine could be financially devastating to middle class families.
According to the conclusion of a paper by Kira Newman on the 1636 Plague quarantines in England:
Government implementation of quarantine was remarkably effective. Despite a lack of early preparations, economic stress, and public opposition, parishes managed thousands of infected and exposed individuals in a system that, for many, helped ensure compliance. Pesthouses gave parishes a secure place to put individuals for the full duration of quarantine and insured that they would receive care. The coordination of parish officials provided daily support to the needy. To save money, the parish devised strategies to minimize expenses and to bring in some returns. Policies like having watchmen assigned to areas rather than individual houses had little public opposition. Others, like giving aid in the form of loans, may have been less popular.
However, quarantine could never be uncontroversial. The flight of the wealthiest from London and Westminster left only the more socially vulnerable to be quarantined. Plague policy was financially sensitive to the poorest but costly in the short and long term to the middling sort. Most significantly, government implementation of quarantine was not always as fair and equal as official public documents purported it to be.
The government used quarantine directly as a punishment to control individuals found breaking other parts of the books of orders. Though this was not publicized, popular narratives continually included grievances about the cruelty and inequity of quarantine and the militaristic nature of its implementation. Quarantine was depicted as uncharitable and unchristian because it prevented family and friends from supporting the ill by conventional means. In response to the perceived inequity of quarantine, individuals, most often the middling sort, broke out of their houses, hid the sick, bribed parish officials, and violated the books of orders in other ways.
Similar public arguments against quarantine continued to arise throughout the rest of the seventeenth century. During 1665, the last great outbreak of plague in London, individuals printed dozens of pamphlets and published numerous books meticulously detailing the points against shutting up the infirm and exposed. In the end, opposition to plague policy died out only when plague itself did.
Shutt Up: Bubonic Plague and Quarantine in Early Modern England
Kira L. S. Newman Journal of Social History (Vol. 45, No. 3)
https://academic.oup.com/jsh/article/45/3/809/1746067
The government response to plagues looked good on paper, but popular literature describes quite a few failures to apply Plague laws properly. The playwright Thomas Dekker described incidents from the outbreak of plague in 1603:
I could draw forth a Catalogue of many poore wretches, that in fieldes, in ditches, in common Cages, and under stalls (being either thrust by cruell maisters out of doores, or wanting all worldly succour but the common benefit of earth and aire have most miserably perished. . . . .
Neither will I speake a word of a poore boy (servant to a Chandler) dwelling thereabouts, who being struck to the heart by sicknes, was first caryed away by water, to be left any where, but landing being denyed by an army of browne bill-men that kept the shore, back againe was he brought, and left in an out-celler, where lying groveling and groning on his face (amongst fagots, but not one of the set on fire to comfort him (there continued all night, and dyed miserably for want of succor.
Nor of another poore wetch in the Parish of Saint Mary Overeyes, who being in the morning throwne, as the fashion is, into a grave upon a heape of carcases, that kayd for their complement, was found in the afternoone, gasping and gaping for life:
Dekker The Wonderfull Yeare 1604
http://www.luminarium.org/renascence-editions/yeare.html
According to the CDC plague had a mortality rate of 66% before antibiotics became available in 1941. The mortality rate is around 10% now. Testing and isolation of the patients can effectively stop human to human transmission.
The data from South Korea suggest a mortality rate of less than 1% for the current epidemic of COVID-19. As epidemics progress the mortality rates tend to decrease. Strains of the pathogen that cause severe symptoms are less likely to be passed on since an infected person who is bedridden has fewer opportunities to infect others (especially if they have an adequate supply of masks and other protective equipment).
Comments
The other issue about S Korea's mortality rate
is their testing rate. The more people you ID with COVID the lower the rate of death.
And in all cases, current test do not ID people who were asymptomatic and now immune. We need that antibody test to really tell.
Dr John was informative about lag times today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-4iQd9O3PQ (16 min)
Thanks for the essay.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Korea has developed an antigen test as has China
The American government wants old people to die
So they can raid SS and Medicare.
EDIT:
I'm cantankerous enough to stay alive just because they want me dead!
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
My credo
When all else fails...SPITE!
As the world sinks beneath you, keep your middle finger raised to the heavens all the way down!
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
Greater than ">" is kinda' open ended,eh? n/t
"Democracy is technique and the ability of power not to be understood as oppressor. Capitalism is the boss and democracy is its spokesperson." Peace - FN
@fakenews The authors of the
The authors of the article published graphs showing a great decrease in the amount of active virus, but there was still a small amount of virus at three days. The tests were conducted at room temperature so heat or washing should take care of any problems.
I rinse the top of food cans before opening them to remove any dust. If the can has been in the pantry for less than a week that would be a good idea.
We do need to wipe off the handles of shopping carts. If the cart has been out in the sun for more than 15-30 minutes it may be OK but why take a chance? I usually carry a small packet of baby wipes in my purse anyway so I will at least use those if the store does not have wipes.
Oral-fecal transmission has been reported so if I do use a public restroom I plan to use a paper towel to turn off the sink if it is not the kind that turns itself off. I usually just use the hand dryer. If there is a door handle it would be a good idea to open the door with a paper towel. There is really probably not that much risk, but if we eliminate even the smaller risks this epidemic will taper off sooner.
We need to convince people that the best way to stop the spread is to stay home as much as possible and wear masks outside. The government websites telling people that we do not need to wear masks have made this epidemic much worse. People wearing masks are much less likely to contaminate surfaces in the first place. Workers in food service and delivery definitely need to be wearing masks not only for their own protection but also for the protection of others. People here know this but when I tried to encourage mask use on Reddit last week I got kicked off.
Masks
The government directive telling people not to wear masks is to cover up the fact that the US doesn't manufacture them and is hard-pressed to procure even a fraction of the number needed just for healthcare workers and first responders. Also, there'd be huge panic and civil unrest if we were informed we needed them but couldn't get them.
That is crazy.
Asian countries have been able to step up production of masks within a week or so. The US manufacturers have fallen so far down they cannot tool an assembly line for a very simple product in less than a month. I personally remember the state of US manufacturing in the 60's and 70's, I was part of it. Then the bean counters took control. The shop floor was too dirty for their expensive suits so they never truly understood who and what created the money they gambled with. American factories gradually became distribution warehouses for foreign manufacturers. Chinese workers are now experiencing the economic gain American workers reaped in the 40's and 50's.
China produces hundreds of millions of masks per day. The state owned oil refinery, Sinopec, even ramped up it's production of polypropylene and built a new factory within 12 days to meet global demand for the melt blown fabric that is used in the masks.
The real lessons to be drawn have nothing to
with the capabilities of US vs Chinese industry. They have to do with the slack attitudes of the cheerful bean counters who have been allowed to run their businesses without any thought or concern about externalities. This quote says it all:
Cool. So, uh ... why hadn't it been done before? The answer is simple: When there is too little cost associated with discarding an otherwise reusable item, the item will be discarded and replaced with a new one. There are 3 primary elements to that "too little cost" function, the first two of which represent "externalities" that the bean counters are allowed to not count:
A. The grotesque underpricing of raw materials (mainly petroleum), which are sold at "market prices" determined, not according to any fundamental long-term intrinsic value, but according to the cost of extracting them plus whatever production controls can be enacted by cartels.
B. The grotesque underpricing of environmental degradation at every step of production: the destruction of ecosystems, and pollution of the earth, the water and the air.
C. The use of financialism to create labor arbitrage, making it cheaper in the wealthy nations to pay someone somewhere else to make a new item, rather than pay someone at home to repair/refurbish an old one. Even with this cool new tech, under "normal" conditions, it's probably going to be more "expensive" for a hospital in NYC to pay the cost of cleaning used masks, than to buy brand new Chinese or Indonesian or Mexican masks produced by people whose wages wouldn't buy enough calories (nevermind any other necessities of life) in NYC to support one human being.
The industrialists almost always claim that progress is too expensive. The car companies bleated that requiring safety gear like seatbelts would cost jobs and price consumers out of the car market. The refrigerator manufacturers bleated that the R&D and retooling necessary to produce refrigerators that wouldn't kill children would cost jobs and price consumers out of the car market. The beverage companies bleat that requiring a deposit on beverage containers will cost jobs and drive prices up. Millions of tons of plastics get tossed into landfills, because it's too expensive to figure out how to recycle them. And so on.
Mind you, there is one kind of "progress" industrialists can be relied upon to glom onto: The kind that replaces a human being with a gadget, or replaces a paid human being (cashier) with an unpaid human being (grocery customer).
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Cutting to the chase,
in a time of need, the US has lost, given away or sold it's ability to be a major manufacturing center for itself, let alone the world. No average citizen of a second or third world country could afford an American made product produced with American workers paid American wages. In fact few Americans could afford them.
The market for these masks is obviously the home purchaser in China. Out of necessity/custom, the Chinese wear face masks on a daily basis when they go out in crowded public spaces. There are 1.4 billion people in China with the majority located in 15 mega-cities, two of which are more than twice the size of NYC. For these people, the labor required to clean them IS very cost effective and the fact that this non-biodegradable product is recycled is a great bonus to the environment.
The people that make our goods in foreign countries DO get paid enough to enjoy a full meal and then some in their countries of origin. The Chinese (and Japanese) eat street/restaurant food at a much greater rate than their American counterparts and I would argue that a considerably smaller percentage go to bed hungry compared to the US.
America’s dirty little secret: 42 million people are suffering from hunger
The Chinese obviously earn more than enough to eat the occasional meal in NYC. They have been visiting the city at an ever increasing rate for more than a decade. The US, with services comprising 80% of the GDP, is going to take a massive hit. The coronavirus pandemic has shutdown tourism completely.
I sense that you think you are arguing with me, but we agree.
This is exactly my point. By financial chicanery, the Masters of the Universe have created this bizarre system of labor arbitrage, in which Americans can't afford to pay Americans to do anything very useful. Why, exactly, are American dollars "worth" so much more in China than in the US? It certainly isn't because China as a nation has a shortage of the damned things -- they're holding onto gazillions of 'em. And it isn't because American workers are busy doing such super-high-value work that it wouldn't make sense to have them making clothes and shoes and hand tools. Chinese workers don't need us and American workers don't need them. It is the capitalists in both countries -- Jack Ma and Jeff Bezos and friends -- who need the current set-up -- but because it is utterly unsustainable (the mathematics is pretty straightforward), the big question is, what are we all gonna do when it hits the wall of its own geometric-growth inevitability?
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
How do we level the playing field around the world?
In China the government owns the major corporations and tells them what to do. In America the corporations own the government and tell them what to do.
I think the Chinese government is a lot more scared of it's 1.4 billion people than the US government is of it's 330 million. Just look at the handling of the Hong Kong riots by the police. Compare to how Obama handled Occupy Wall St. There were a hell of a lot more wood shampoos given out by the police in NYC.
The result is that both situations are identical
Govt. control of the corporations is exactly the same as corporate control of the Govt. Fascism and Communism are ultimately the same coin.
Only when the workers control the means of production do we break that cycle.
BTW, the existence of a growing
middle class in China -- one that can afford to travel the world, for example -- doesn't mean that the average Chinese worker can do so. The average Chinese factory worker earns about $10k a year, and the Chinese minimum wage is under $5k per year. Numbers like that aren't going to fund a trip to london or NYC.
But of course there's a rapidly enwealthened bourgeoisie sitting pretty on the surplus value produced by those guys making $5k per year -- and when you have a population of 1.4 billion people, the 1% is 14 million. That's a lot of tourists -- or for that matter, college students wandering the campuses of top tier American universities wearing $1000 Canada Goose parkas, the ludicrously overpriced status clothing item du jour. (mind you, chinese knockoffs are abundant. buyer beware.)
Indeed, China is experiencing regional "boom economy inflation" comparable to what has happened in places like San Francisco, LA and NYC. I've heard Chinese colleagues talk about how they won't take relatively lucrative jobs back home, because their American houses haven't appreciated in value fast enough for them to be able to afford to buy homes in Beijing and elsewhere. Many of them are regretting their decision to come here (typically as grad students), because they feel priced out of ever going back.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
@edg I am sure you are
I am sure you are absolutely right about covering up the shortage. I was shocked to learn that Homeland Security, et. al. had not replenished the stockpiles of medical supplies. Our Dear Leaders are just kicking the can down the road though. I am in Florida and people are starting to stay in and look worried.
Homemade masks from T-shirts, bandannas, coffee filters and quilting by talented seamstresses will all make a big difference. The Fearless Leaders could have been slightly more honest and recommended homemade cloth masks. Cloth masks are also a great opportunity for Mom and Pop home businesses for the next few weeks.
There is going to be a lot of anger as the death toll mounts. Blaming China is not likely to fly on this one since too many people know someone who works in health care.
It’s impossible to obtain face masks
Doctors and nurses working in ERs and ICUs can’t even get an adequate supply of them.
I’m convinced — we all need to use them, starting immediately if not sooner.
Now what? We still can’t get them.
I keep seeing stuff on FB
that there are plenty of masks but that Donald Trump is playing favorites about sending them to places where they voted for him. True? Not true?
The ruling classes need an extra party to make the rest of us feel as if we participate in democracy. That's what the Democrats are for. They make the US more durable than the Soviet Union was.
Don't know about plenty --
but WaPo has apparently reported that supplies in the strategic reserve are being doled out to Trump's favorites.
There is likely some truth to that
I have also seen mention that the strategic reserve of masks was largely drawn-down a decade ago for the H1N1 swine flu pandemic and over intervening years there was never money budgeted to get that stockpile back to necessary levels. Hooray for austerity.
It’s also impossible to know what supplies are being sent where
Reportedly, the state of Arizona (with a trump friendly republican governor) has so far received one shipment of medical supplies from the federal stockpile and is expecting one more shipment at the end of the month. These together will be 1/4 of AZ’s “share” of the national stockpile. The state had to formally request these supplies and is responsible for dolling them out to hospitals and other medical facilities. It is not clear who is getting them, if anyone. People I know who work in healthcare are all saying they are in short supply still.
From what I’ve been able to find, the actual inventory of the national stockpile is secret — no one knows where these warehouses are or what is in them. Well, not “no one” — there is a government department that is responsible for maintaining them and presumably they know. But no one else. So we can’t really know if “there are plenty” but I seriously doubt it. There are *some* still in stockpile. This is probably good since the increasing load on the medical system has barely begun.
Although I have no doubt that Trump is a monster who would happily withhold emergency supplies for political retribution, I don’t really believe that the lack of adequate supplies overall is due to red-versus-blue partisan politics. I think the so-called stockpile is probably dangerously under stocked, and there will be severe shortages everywhere until production ramps up considerably.
What few masks are available will go to medical personnel and first responders.
“We the people” will not get them, until and unless we start making our own. Which some people are doing, despite their probable ineffectiveness, because for most of us it’s home-made masks or nothing.
Stockpile
As of February 25: Secretary of HHS said there are "30 million surgical masks and 12 million of the more protective N95 masks. He said there were an additional 5 million N95 masks that may have passed their expiration date". CDC tested a sampling of the expired masks and found they're still usable.
Over 100 million were sent out for the H1N1 pandemic in 2009-2010 but the stockpile was not replenished despite multiple requests to the Obama Administration by health authorities.
Thanks edg
I don’t necessarily believe the statement from HHS, but if those numbers are correct then it’s nowhere near enough.
On this part:
I’ve seen that accusation numerous times, but I cannot find any source for this information. I will say it seems unlikely to me. But not impossible. Do you know where and how this was reported and verified?
LA Times, Bloomberg, WaPo, The Atlantic
From The Atlantic:
From The Daily Signal:
Personally, I'd say most of the blame falls on the Obama Admin. They used 'em, they should have replaced 'em.
Anybody able to access the below referenced WaPo article?
This bit sure looks like "high crimes and misdemeanors." If so, a shame DC Democrats squandered their impeachment tool and a nothingburger.
Hey, I'm sure
Nadler and Schiff will be looking into it. They just need the usual 6-8 months to investigate the charges until they report back. No problem.
It's horrible if true
and I distrust Trump, of course, and guess that probably he is motivated by exactly the impulses you describe. But maybe they are being directed where the epidemic is worst. Let me have a look:
This is from CNN. I'm assuming they're reporting the numbers factually, but who knows.
Cases …per 100K Deaths
New York 59,313 305 965
New Jersey 13,386 151 161
Michigan 4,659 47 111
California 4,643 12 101
Washington 4,310 57 189
Massachusetts 4,257 62 44
Florida 4,238 20 55
Louisiana 3,540 76 151
Illinois 3,491 28 47
Pennsylvania 3,394 27 38
This is the top ten states, according to CNN. So not sending supplies to MA is very bad. We'll see how he does in re: the rest of the top ten. Florida is #7 in the country, so it's not especially bad to send supplies here. But not sending supplies to MA looks very bad. Could well be what you're suggesting.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Not true.
Then it's fine that NYC health workers have
resorted to trash bags and shower caps for PPE.
However, how shortsighted not to have replenished the stockpile over the past decade. Guess HHS has better things to do with its time and budget.
I don't know why you do that.
You draw sweeping, unsupportable conclusions from outside material people quote in their comments.
"Its fine that NYC health workers have resorted to trash bags and shower caps for PPE," said nobody, ever.
Deleted it.
[Yes, I deleted the whole comment. I was totally off base after misreading the thread. Apologies to edg. and thanks to UntimelyRippd for pointing out my error.]
Edg wasn't denying that hospital workers were
wearing trash bags for PPE, he was denying that he (or anyone else) had said that situation was okay.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Mea culpa
Thanks, UntimelyRippd. I had misread the thread. In fact, I deleted the comment as it was totally off the mark.
He needs Florida
and he'll never get Illinois or Massachusetts.
IL Republicans are still campaigning on "no abortion ever" and "guns for everyone, even convicted felons" and "no extra tax on Millionaires (aka "job creaters"). It ain't gonna fly except in Southern Illinois, aka, West Kentucky.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
... good idea to open the door with a paper towel
I usually use my elbow. I like the "no door" restrooms at Walmart and some airports where you just walk a little maze going in and out without touching anything.
I hate their hand dryers. It's impossible to put big hands in them without touching the sides so I usually walk out with wet hands. works great in Winter when the air is bone dry. Up here anyway. In January I was astonished to see the water literally evaporating off my skin in seconds (about 20).
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
No comment:
Florida Lupus patients can't get their meds after Trump touts drug to fight coronavirus
no comment
I am afraid we are entering Thomas Dekker's world
Some tweet I read noted that we are being divided into three classe of quarantiners: the rich have retreated to the their summer homes; the middle classes are stuck in their homes; and the poor are just shit out luck. If the pandemic continues, the middle class fall in with the poor.
Adam Johnston is looking at the class and race divide on who is suffering the most. You know, Madonna said the virus has made us all equal. Which is a crock of shit.
I wonder if Madonna is onboard.
Hmm. This reminds me of an unkind joke that was
current in UK in the early 80s.
Q: What's white and flies across the ocean?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
A: Lord Mountbatten's tennis shoes.
Look it up, kids.
David Geffen is the guy who once sued Neil Young for making records that didn't sound like Neil Young records.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Had to look it up. Blown up at sea by IRA?
Where are some Somali pirates when you need them.
Hope a rogue wave hits him
and his crappy, polluting, oversized boat. Good riddance. Rec'd!!
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.