2019 Pandemic Exercise "Crimson Contagion" Highlighted Response Weaknesses
Last year, the Dept. of Health and Human Services ran a 7 month long exercise code named "Crimson Contagion," a dry run response to a global pandemic which started in China and expected more than 100 million Americans to become ill.
The simulation highlighted several failures in our preparedness for such a catastrophe.
DONALD TRUMP: Nobody knew there'd be a pandemic or an epidemic of this proportion.
The New York Times broke this story yesterday, but as it's behind a paywall I won't link to it. But there's a good interview with one of the authors conducted by NPR.
Trump is like the kid who played video games when he should have been doing his homework, then failed miserably on the test and tried to bullshit his way through the essay questions.
As you are probably aware, a handful of elected leaders were selling their stock while assuaging the public about the dangers of the pandemic. We've gone from incompetence, to negligence, to outright profiteering. It's just about time to sharpen your pitchforks and soak your torches in kerosene.
Comments
It seems as if on every level
the failures keep mounting. Trump and the republicans started day one dismantling government offices they didn't like, cutting staffing, selling surplus equipment and shredding files. Meanwhile, in response, democrats couldn't stop mourning Clintons defeat and continuing the purge of those party dis-loyalists.
There's another Huffpost article that highlights another failure of leadership.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nancy-pelosi-joe-biden-coronavirus-respon...
This almost guarantees another Trump term, because in the general election Biden, Schumer and Pelosi will run to the center, become centrist, incrementalist republicans, to try to woo a few moderate republicans and undecideds. Since Clinton it's what they do.
@Snode What we have is
What we have is dereliction of duty from both Democrats and Republicans. I was just wondering this morning what laws are in place? Are we under a national emergency directive that suspends the constitution? Cities, counties and states are effectively shut down, many business are shut down. Is the bill of rights still in place? What actual law applies?
Neither party is actually "leading", both are playing at "politics" while people are dying and this pandemic is spreading, especially in those states that kept their primaries going when it was not in the public's interest to be out of their houses.
Heck, if Trump can "recognized" Juan Guaido as the "legitimate" president of Venezuela, why the fuck can't we "recognize" Bernie Sanders as our legitimate president? I mean, if all we have to do is just say it is so, like Trump and others did, why the fuck not? (yeah I know, but...I think you get my point)
These fuckers are looking at "means testing" any financial help. I swear, if I wind up sick, I'm gonna find #VoteBlueNoMatterWho democrats, and become the new Typhoid Mary, shake their hands and congratulate them on pushing a shithead upon us.
I was able to get Spectrum business to postpone my internet bill for 60 days during the crisis, but, my bill keeps accruing, so in sixty days it will be triple. (I'm already a month behind) Which means, if I only wind up with the current proposed "means tested" help of $600, it will barely cover my past due internet bill, and that's it. The only thing they will not charge me is late fee's after the 13th of March. Gee, thanks...
Our "gubberment" fucked this up, people are dying and no one will held responsible or accountable. When a government can no longer be held accountable, it truly is time to overthrow said government. Our judiciary is so beholden to corporate interests that corporations have more "rights & privileges" than ordinary citizens. How can we rely on judges that have been bought and sold for 30 pieces of silver?
No one can file a law suite because oh gee they don't have "standing". Gee the financial crisis of 07/08, the bail out cost every American 70 thousand in life time earnings, I would say that is standing enough! Could you use that 70 thousand at the moment? I sure could.
But hey, we have to bail out the 1% and their lackies...
C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote
The 1%
always have standing. I am so disgusted. They fiddle around with little adjustments for the truly poor, ignoring the huge amount of people just over that dividing line, the near poor, the $400 emergency away from poor. All while fluffing for the rich.
Of all the times to continue business as usual. If the dems can't get relief to the Americans that need it, they just handed the election to Trump.
Hell yeah.
Heck, if Trump can "recognized" Juan Guaido as the "legitimate" president of Venezuela, why the fuck can't we "recognize" Bernie Sanders as our legitimate president?
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
That only works top-down, not bottom-up
Sure as hell a tempting thought, though.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Can't hurt to try.
Though the problem is that, strictly speaking, Bernie hasn't beaten Trump yet, because he's never been allowed to try. That means I'm not entirely on secure moral ground in declaring him president--just declaring him the nominee.
If I knew for certain Trump had cheated to get into office, it would be different. But I don't have evidence (at least not evidence I trust) that Trump cheated at the 2016 election. I just assume he must have, because how else could he have beaten Clinton, who *was* cheating?
You don't beat a cheater by playing fair. Not unless you have a community to back you up which has authority and power and is not corrupt. I'm pretty sure Trump met fire with fire. But I don't have solid evidence of that. Whatever evidence there might have been got drowned in goddamned Russiagate nonsense.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
To be fair...
BUT!!! OBAMA DID, TOO!!! (As did Dubya)
What did the GWB and Obama Administrations
have against the large and presumably highly skilled public health agencies under HHS? If they had flubbed, then they should have been ordered to fix the problem; reorganize and/or replace the incompetents so that such flubs don't happen again. The Asst Secretary for Public Health, a physician, oversees those agencies and reports to the HHS Secretary who in turn reports to the POTUS.
Why set up a WH office overseen by a person with no public health expertise or experience to report to the NSC director?
Probably patronage
Quite a few Federal positions exist only for rewarding friends and donors that helped win the election. When not needed, they're jettisoned until the next friend or donor who wants a job comes along.
I agree. Seriously not good.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Yes
One big clusterfuck isn't it.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
"Nobody could foresee airliners used as missiles." But, who
remembers that, too?
Bush got away with that excuse. He even got several glorious wars out of it. Why shouldn't Trump?
@leveymg well gee, nobody seems to
well gee, nobody seems to remember that a B-25 smashed into the Empire State building, but by golly, it didn't collapse!
C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote
A much smaller airplane
Crashing into a building that wasn't constructed in the same way.
" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "
@boriscleto Never in the history
Never in the history of human kind has a concrete and steel building disintegrated into dust, from "fire". The three WTC towers were no different. Anyone that "believes" otherwise, would be wise to re-visit high school physics.
Just consider tower one, the plane struck the building between floors 93 through 99. The "mass" of floors 93 and above (object A) were not greater than the "mass" of floors 92 through 0 (object B). Gravity plus the mass of object A, assuming the "pancake theory", was not enough "force" to disintegrate into dust, object B, especially considering the straight, near perfect, downward motion of object A, through object B.
That's Newton's 3rd law is it not? Object A would have to be exerting a force so much greater than just gravity, to disintegrate object B, a vastly greater mass than object A, into dust. Is that not so?
C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote
No, it is not so.
And that is all I'm going to say on the matter.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Here's the thing.
Regardless of which version of history one believes, I think we can all agree that the President's actions and inaction on that occasion were perfidious.
But hey, apparently he's a nice guy to have a beer with at a ball game.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
You are correct.
Israel brought the towers down including the infamous tower 7. Engineers have proven the buildings were imploded on purpose. It’s not CT. It’s FACT.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
This. Is. Not. Helpful.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Dominoes, Rooster. Dominoes.
Your interpretation of Newton would make "falling dominoes" impossible - but the dominoes fall anyway.
As to the Empire State Building vs. the Twin Towers: ESB was built like a brick, lots of interior structure, lots of internal support - overengineered, as we now say, because people didn't believe that a building that tall could stand up under its own weight. By the time the Twin Towers went up, engineers had long since learned how to maximize the height and floor space of a building while minimizing the internal structure - thus they were more like balloons.
When a needle hits a brick, nothing happens. When a needle hits a balloon....
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Sometimes...
Sometimes I wish we had a rule about conspiracy theories here. I'm ashamed of some of the crap posted here. It keeps me from recommending the site to others.
That would make it an authoritarian website
we've all seen how the phrase "conspiracy theory" has been used, and misused, over the past twenty years. I'm not sure such rules could be compatible with creating a space for free and rational discourse.
The way to deal with an unfounded hypothesis is to counter it with evidence and reasoned argument. If there's enough evidence and logic on one side, then that view prevails. If there are a few people who choose not to recognize the truth, well, so they don't recognize it. If the community is dedicated to reason, the majority will recognize it. If they're not dedicated to reason, will a bunch of rules make them so? Or will it just present an acceptable facade to the rest of the world?
Of course, I believe that this community is, for the most part, quite dedicated to reason. But the price of that dedication, in my book, is free and open discourse. I don't go to sites that have arbitrary limits on which views of history can and cannot be expressed. Ultimately, such limits operate against reason, not for it, no matter what it looks like in the short term.
As for the question of 9/11, I agree with Maven that this is not the place to debate it.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
I agree with you.
I don't want a dictatorship on c99. That's why I wrote "Sometimes". I remember the bad old days on Daily Kos when bannable CT included anything that contradicted official propaganda. I don't want that here. But I am still troubled by wacko proclamations and it does keep me from recommending the site to others.
Oh. OK. Misunderstood you.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Not to mention that if such a pulverization process were a real
thing the top section would be pulverized at approximately the same rate as the bottom section. And when the top section was "consumed" into dust the process would stop, leaving much of the lower floors intact.
completely incorrect in every way.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Naturally.
physics is physics
I don't make the rules.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Just ignore them then?
Wow.
Dust is merely a change of state in a material. Consumption doesn't occur. One ton of concrete pulverized into dust still weighs one ton. One ton of pulverized steel still weighs one ton.
Word games don't count as engineering. Have someone whip
a handful of baby powder at your face, then the same mass of gravel. See which one hurts more.
A better comparison...
Put a pound of baby powder into a plastic bag and whip it at your face. Do the same with a pound of gravel. The effect will be similar, as a pound is a pound, although the jagged edges of gravel may cause more scratches.
I don't have a bag strong enough or big enough for the falling
debris from the 3 towers that fell after 2 planes hit them. But C99 is too important to me to do this anymore. So get in the last word and let's be done with it now.
A simple question.
Where were the huge clouds of over a million tons of pulverized dust that you posit? Dust wouldn't just disappear in a few minutes. That much dust in the air would spread 50 miles or more and cause blackout conditions over an area from Trenton NJ to Stamford CT. Kinda like an erupting volcano's dust and ash cloud.
Yeah. But the warmongers didn't need another Pearl Harbor back
then. They had just had the real one only 4 years prior.
Which of the Pearl Harbors was the real one?
All I can say is it was very fortunate that many of the vessels caught in the harbor were not exactly the best of the Pacific Fleet.
What's old is new again. Good point. When the neocons said
'another Pearl Harbor' they were really blowing the dog whistle hard for their deep state simpaticos.
Right...
Because a plane that's twice as fast and ten times as heavy and carrying twenty times as much fuel hitting a building constructed using different materials and construction techniques will cause exactly the same damage. Exactly. Right.
/snark
It's hard to foresee things when you're busy
clearing brush instead of reading intelligence reports.
Or perhaps they didn't "foresee" it because they already knew it.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Whoops.
Apparently my mouse finger gets really heavy when I'm angry.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Profiteering
That goes all the way to the White House, no doubt.
riding the white horse
to victory!
whee bennies
Don't forget our congressritters
who make profits as well. I cannot remember exactly when insider trading for them became legal but it should be no surprise to anyone paying the slightest bit of attention that they're ALL doing it. That is one reason, at least in my semi-educated opinion, they did not go after Trump for emoluments during Shampeachment, because THEY ALL DO IT.
Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur
Looks as if the crisis profiteers were on top of it:
I. Hate. Them.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
So, plenty of USG resources to run
pandemic war games but no money to implement the most basic stockpiles (thermometers, face masks, gloves) that would be very helpful in containing a virus. The larger serious shortcomings in the US are mostly intractable due to the "best" health care system that money can buy.
good point Marie
dropping bombs and sanctioning free commerce
in other countries is the american way of protecting
the proceeds of the sociopaths
not such a good way to stop pandemics
not in my name congress
We do have a weird definition of national security.
Fifty-six years dumping an untold number of dollars into "keeping us safe" from a foreign invader and the one time it happened, not any of the resources were worth a damn.
The problem isn't so much that the real threats are unknown, at least not in broad outline form, but they're not "sexy." Not amenable to what the military and cloak and dagger spy guys are into. And the perpetual USG budgets for the sexy stuff is far more profitable. And is better suited to hiding all the graft and corruption (and employing the surplus and unskilled labor that elite universities crank out) that upset ordinary people fearful that some undeserving person would get something for free from the USG.
100% nailed it. They love behemoth expenditures that can
hide graft.
They hate small expenditures to many individuals like troop pay raises or benefits to individuals that can be accurately tracked and are not conducive to extortion and kickbacks.
Apparently medical supplies don't count as military
supplies, either. Well, given how the govt likely views our soldiers, I guess that's not surprising.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Trump is doing another infomercial on the TV
right now. Hyping companies in his beloved “private sector”. He keeps using “loving it.” I doubt McDonalds will complain. Well unless the prez doesn’t give them a plug.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
FEMA has been put in charge of COVID-19
NHS will report to them.
"US has 55 million masks" "we should sanitize and reuse them"
China makes N35 masks at the rate of tens of millions per day. They are shipping millions to other countries around the world. Sinopec even constructed a brand new factory with 12 production lines from scratch in 10 days to manufacture the PP material over a month ago.
Trump bragging about how prescient he was in handling this pandemic.
Lying about China not telling world what was happening for two to three months despite WHO reports from early January.
He keeps repeating how he acted very early.
Scapegoating China again. What a fucking lying fuckwit.
Still don't know how many or when test kits will come out.
Blaming all problems on previous administration - inherited the deficiencies.
One reporter catches him out on when he knew about China from his public statement on Jan 24.
Watch the following video. Trump knew about the virus at least by Jan 3 (the day it's genome was published)
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm0lcZ4RsjI]
Confirmed cases in the US now 19,459 w/ 263 deaths. It is right on the heals of Iran and German. I expect the country to become #4 (from #6) in the world within 24 hours. Trump always says the US is number one in the world for EVERYTHING.
Excuse me. I have to go and take a long hot shower. Listening to that ignorant blowhard makes me feel dirty.
The problem now with test kits is that we are running
out of the reagents to run the tests. So samples can be collected, but may not be processed. There will be more cover-ups when this becomes generally known. Attention! Forward fail!
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
Most of the reagents come from China
as do most of the precursors for the various drugs that are made in the US.
Here's a video of how China ramped up mask production within days of learning about the COVID-19 infection.
Someone should have the Trumpeter watch this video. He might discover why masks can't be cleaned and reused.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZYVaokFBzc]
Since this time, China has made billions of masks and is now exporting them all around the world.
Edit: added another interesting video showing Chinese fast innovation. It will take US companies weeks to match this.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYyxAbHNDkE]
You can use this YouTube link to get up-date information on how China is working on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Germany is confirming a high number of
COVID-19 infections, but an incredibly low number of deaths and patients in serious condition. The numbers may be valid but if so, there's an element of luck in Germany's favor.
I would say that Germany's testing is far superior
to the US. They test a far larger number of people and don't have the restriction of having to show symptoms before one can get tested. This gives them a larger base of infected so it shows a lower ratio for deaths/confirmed. Earlier detection will also greatly improve outcomes. The slope of their new infections is also starting to flatten - unlike the US where it is getting steeper with each passing day.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-cases-covid-19?country=USA+DEU+IRN
These factors are actually a really, really bad warning sign for the evolution of the virus outbreak within the US. The US, as a fist world country should not have outcomes like a second world country.
Haven't seen any data on testing in Germany
The only country I've seen that has been releasing daily figures on testing is South Korea and they've been doing it since their first case on 20 Jan 2020. Update 21 Jan 2021. First confirmed case in Germany was on 28 Jan.
As of 21 Mar:
Germany: confirmed cases 21,854. (population 83 million)
South Korea: confirmed cases 8,799. (population 51 million) Total tests administered 327,599.
So, SK has better contained the internal spread than Germany and has released more complete information on the imported cases.
At this time, I'm not going to speculate as to why SK's deaths are so much higher than Germany's. But do note that if Germany's health care for a virus with no cure is so far superior to SK's, why are there also so few recoveries in Germany - 180 compared to SK's 2,612.
btw:
Confirmed cases - Germany:
19 Mar - 17,372
20 Mar - 19,848
21 Mar - 21,854
Confirmed cases - South Korea
19 Mar - 8,565
20 Mar - 8,652
21 Mar - 8,799
The higher number of confirmed cases
and lower death rate means that Germany was doing more effective testing earlier on.
First?
Japan had a test sometime between 11 and 14 Jan when it confirmed its first COVID-19 case. And SK confirmed its first case on 20 Jan using a test developed in China.
Was Germany's test more reliable than China's? If so, why didn't the US CDC access it in January? Who developed the one that WHO has been distributing to poorer countries?
Until Germany releases its information on the number of tests administered and negative results, it's only a guessing game as to how many tests Germany has actually conducted.
The latest US CDC advice (being followed by at least two large cities) is only to test health care workers, presumably to move them from hospitals to isolation/quarantine. The CDC advice conforms to the fact that treatment for severely ill patients is the same for COVID-19 and any of the other forms of influenza, and therefore, no need to discriminate among the various forms. What this tell the public is that contact tracing is not being done and public health officials are relying on the lockdowns to control the virus. They'll guesstimate the actual infections from the hospitalizations and physicians assessments and the data from other countries.
wish I weren't so cynical
we remember, don't we?, when the US staged their usual war games exercises in 1990....wearing gear for the desert when we weren't in any war situation with anyone in the Middle East. Yet it wasn't much longer when we were.
And now you're saying the US ran an exercise involving a pandemic? Why oh why do I think they knew it was coming? And if they knew it was coming....
My sister went to the
National Training Center at Fort Irwin, Mojave desert, in 1986, and that was hardly a rarity even back then. My ex husband went in late 1989 I believe, or early 1990. So yes, all that desert training when "we" were still solely focused on the Warsaw Pact nations, but hey, that's just CT, right? And then behold, Gulf One in 1990 just happened out of the blue? Yeah, sure.
As for stupid ass Americans I overheard some conversation this week about how saying the US created the virus is fake news and is how one gets shot in America.... The stupid is simply too pervasive in this country and sadly, it'll prove fatal for many here in the land of the free. We'll be number 1 alright, just not in the way most sheep like Americans think we are.
Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur
If they did..........
It has spectacularly backfired on them.
China put the country on a war footing and immediately responded by pulling out all the stops in an extremely effective way.
Unless their aim was to reduce the population, here and abroad, of non-productive individuals?
I figure, from the manner the US is handling this situation, the game is to defeat the virus in the US using herd immunity.
Herd immunity in the US would leave countries like China vulnerable to successive infections until a vaccination is developed. Then what if mutations occur?
That would be a two-fer. Just say'n......
Lots here for a great movie. Any screenwriters in the crowd?
Population Reduction was my first thought
Almost every politician says we must cut Social Security and Medicare, but they are all scared to do it. So maybe the next best solution is to reduce demand...
Kill off the elderly
Kill off the homeless
Kill off the prisoners
Kill off the half a million dialysis patients
Etc
“He may not have gotten the words out but the thoughts were great.”
If that was accomplished
they could lower the effective tax rate for the wealthy by a further 30%. Maybe even give the fuckers a tax holiday?
Discussion of 9/11 is threadjacking and sabotage.
We need to stay focused on the current crisis.
If you want to talk 9/11, please start your own thread.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Exactly.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
Seconded.
@TheOtherMaven Good point since a
Good point since a properly titled thread makes it easy to do "social isolation"!!!
Plague of the bean counters
The just-in-time approach to life is killing our society. It sounds like a leading edge mathematical and technical approach to achieving maximum efficiency but when a more strategic analysis is done the dogma reveals itself to be a glorified version of Neuman's "What, me worry?". Thus our "systemc" is so short sighted that anything mildly out of the ordinary devices into crisis and COVID19 is many sigmas away from the mean.
Cutting things really close all the time is bound to bow up spectacularly all to often. We see this in more mundane situations where the private iniquity firms suck companies dry of fiscal and human assets leaving the emaciated corpse to stagger on to an eventual death a few years later.