US "Healthcare" is making Covid-19 Worse.

First_Aid_Kit

That's neither my cynicism nor hyperbole. It comes from a column or article by Kat Eschner that Popular Science dropped into my inbox yesterday: The American healthcare system is only making COVID-19 worse “We don’t really have a system.”. It's pretty short and you can read it here: https://www.popsci.com/story/science/healthcare-paid-sick-leave-coronavi... Some highlights:

Researchers say that the American healthcare system could make the outbreak much worse. In fact, “We don’t really have a system,” says Lynn Blewett, a professor of health policy and management at the University of Minnesota who studies access to care. The term “system” implies a unified plan, she says, and the patchwork of public and private care providers and millions of uninsured people that currently characterize American medicine isn’t that.

Speaking about the lack of nationwide sick leave requirements, the author notes that:

And it’s part of a broader picture of lax health-related national policy, says Nicolas Ziebarth, a Cornell University professor of policy analysis and Management. Ziebarth is the author of several studies on paid sick leave that confirm White’s findings. In two recent papers, he says, “we find clear evidence… that infection rates decrease significantly when cities and states pass these mandates.”

The United States is at greater risk than other industrialized countries from the COVID-19 outbreak, he says. Why? “We have a really bad social safety network.” Things like universal access to healthcare and paid sick leave mandates are just two of the things that could improve it, he says.

The really bad news, per the author and Ms. Blewett, is that things are unlikely to change despite what should be a wake up call. That has be be the understatement of the year; Joe Biden is the insurance companies' insurance against the institution of anything resembling a real healthcare system and the bosses protection against any sort of sick leave legislation and you know that Trump sure isn't going to do anything that might improve things either.

Give it a read, it's worth it.

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Steven D's picture

Lack of sick leave, fear of job loss, inadequate public health infrastructure at all levels -local, state and federal - and inability to afford medical care are all issues that make a spread of the virus more likely.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

mimi's picture

@Steven D
one measure they tried to put through in Germany is to make money available for companies, who ask their employees to work less hours than before, before they end up to make them unemployed totally. (Companies who lose so much business they can't afford to make their payroll for their fulltime employees) So, for the lack of income through having to work less hours, the government offered money to compensate siad loss of income of the enforced part-time workforce.

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enhydra lutris's picture

@mimi

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

@Steven D
in the article, the cost minimizing Just-In-Time inventory management fetish makes it a real struggle to ramp up readiness in a hurry, the whole supply chain has to ramp up all the way back to the first sub-component or raw material supplier.

have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Bisbonian's picture

@enhydra lutris "the whole supply chain has to ramp up all the way back to the first sub-component or raw material supplier."

...which is in China.

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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

enhydra lutris's picture

@Bisbonian

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Raggedy Ann's picture

homeless population. I envision dead bodies lying all over America. This is what we've come to.

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

Steven D's picture

@Raggedy Ann isn't as deadly for younger people and kids.

But if you have an underlying medical condition or compromised immune system (as I do, and my wife) the odds of getting a serious, life-threatening case increases dramatically, as it does for people the older they are. Homeless ppl undoubtedly have weaker immune systems as a group.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

CB's picture

@Steven D
is that many people under 20 can be asymptomatic carriers of the disease. Children tend to have greater physical contact with other children in school, sporting events and in their interpersonal relationships. That is why closing schools and keeping children home is of prime importance. But this will be problematic. Low income families obtain meals and other social benefits from their schools and they definitely cannot afford to miss work to stay home and look after the children.

Children need to be tested at the first sign of an outbreak in any particular community. Unfortunately, CDC only shipped 75,000 test kits to be used in the following week. This comes to only 1,500 per state so the CDC is (again) advising tests only for people who are symptomatic. The country will only remain behind the curve if it continues this plan.

The US should look to China and Korea and listen to the advice given them by the WHO.

From a previous post of mine:

According to the CDC total tests done from Jan 18 to Mar 10, 4PM was 11,079 nation wide. There are 330 million people in the country. The CDC has just announced it sent out 75,000 tests for all 50 states to be used for the next week. They will have to restrict testing to those who are symptomatic. Therefore, we can expect a very large percentage of those to test positive. Test results are within 24 hrs.

South Korea is testing people at the rate of 20,000/day with staff working 24/7. The population is 51 million. Their fatality rate is currently 0.7% but that low number may be a function of early diagnosis in combination with testing a very large number of people. Test results are given within 6 hours.

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enhydra lutris's picture

@CB
cranking out over a million test kits per day. Somehow I don't see the US doing that unless there is big money in it for somebody.

have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

edg's picture

@CB

That happens when a country eviscerates its manufacturing capability. US companies shed domestic manufacturing while nurturing manufacturing in China and South Korea. It's no surprise they're able to produce test kits at a much faster rate.

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enhydra lutris's picture

@edg
have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

@Raggedy Ann
with a major hepatitis outbreak that swept through homeless populations.

have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

snoopydawg's picture

@Raggedy Ann

who test positive for the virus and don't need medical attention.

San Francisco to use RVs to quarantine people exposed to coronavirus

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (BCN) - As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in San Francisco reaches 14, the city announced Tuesday it's identifying quarantine locations for those who don't need hospitalization and can't self-isolate.

According to the office of Mayor London Breed, people who've tested positive for the virus, or who've been exposed to it and need to be quarantined but either live in shared spaces like SROs or are homeless, will be provided with temporary isolation housing consisting of RVs.

The RVs are being staged in the Presidio and will be placed at various locations throughout the city as needed, Breed's office said.

"Our top priority is public health and slowing the spread of COVID-19 in our community," the mayor said in a statement.

"Not everyone in our city has access to housing where they can go if they are infected or exposed to the virus, and it's important that we take measures like this to care for our most vulnerable residents, including people who are homeless," she said.

In addition to the RVs, the city is also looking for sites for auxiliary quarantine housing, including at unoccupied residential properties. The city is also asking hotels to identify vacant rooms that can be used.

This is a great start. The ramifications of the virus is going to be huge. In addition to what has been written here there is going to be people who need food brought to them. And if mass transit is shut down how will some people get to hospital if others don't want to be exposed to the sick?

This country has not set up the things it needs to take care of people in times of needs. FEMA has been gutted and right now they aren't in charge. But then we know how intentionally incompetent they can be. Bush/Katrina was a deliberate act to ignore the poor and minorities. I think that this will be Trump's Katrina but it is not all his fault. Many presidents before him have decimated the agencies we need in place right now. Reagan for one.

Lucky timing for democrats since I am betting the convention will not happen. This is great news for Joe Biden and the DNC. You can bet they are all smiling right now.

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There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?

Raggedy Ann's picture

@snoopydawg
I hope other states have compassion in the coming days.

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

Lookout's picture

...for profit.

Tom Hanks and his wife have the virus. Hanks wrote on Instagram: "We felt a bit tired, like we had colds, and some body aches. Rita had some chills that came and went. Slight fevers too."

About 80% of infected folks experience the virus like that. Most of us who will get the virus will have a similar experience. About 5% have serious illness and pneumonia. Mainly older folks (like many of us) and those with other conditions. So some of the fear factor is hype. Getting COVID-19 is not a guaranteed death sentence. Right now I think the big goal is to slow the spread so the system isn't overwhelmed.

Off topic...I saw where Chelsea tried to kill herself last night. What a brutal society we have become. https://heavy.com/news/2020/03/chelsea-manning-suicide-attempt/

Perhaps one outcome will be the call for medicare for all.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

TheOtherMaven's picture

@Lookout

right into fascist dictatorship. What else are all the cries to end the primaries "NOW" and crown Joe Biden, but a demand that we the scum of the earth submit to the "better" judgment of our "superiors" and give up any idea of thinking or acting for ourselves?

If there even are any more "primaries", they will be hollowed-out jokes with no debates, no audiences, and little to no choice - while the "Pandemic Panic" is being pushed to drive down voter turnout and allow the puppetmasters to do their thing in full public view.

So yeah, there's a new and somewhat nastier bug around. But there have always been bugs - some of them much, much more serious than this one - and never before have we allowed everyday life, especially important political activities, to come to a screeching halt because of them.

Only now, when mass media saturation makes mass panic so easy and so tempting, are we being told to "Run Away, Run Away!"

In the simple words of the Hitchhiker's Guide:

DON'T PANIC!

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

boriscleto's picture

@TheOtherMaven Was Mostly Harmless

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" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "

enhydra lutris's picture

@boriscleto

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

polkageist's picture

@TheOtherMaven
I'm 84 and my ailments are a list of Covid 19 weaknesses. My wife wears a mask when she shops, we wash our hands, use sanitizer, and we stay home and self isolate. If I was 40 or 50 years younger, I would not be worried about catching a variety of flu which seems to be what Covid 19 is and what young, healthy people seem to be catching. But I'm not, so into semi-isolation I go.

I remember as a boy not being able to go to the swimming pool because of polio and the awareness of the prevalence of TB in the community. There was a large TB sanitarium just a few miles from where we lived. Despite this, no one panicked. We were just as sensible as we could be and got on with our lives. That still seems to be the most intelligent thing to do.

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-Greed is not a virtue.
-Socialism: the radical idea of sharing.
-Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
John F. Kennedy, In a speech at the White House, 1962

Anja Geitz's picture

@TheOtherMaven

And yet to watch people shop at the store, you'd be convinced it's "end of times". These days it's Sunday, everyday, at Trader Joe's. We did 40% more business on one of the "slowest" days of the week yesterday than we did last year. And it's been like that everyday for the last two weeks. Shelves are cleaned out everyday. And not just the can goods, the water, the toilet paper, and the hand-sanitizers, but everything. I rang up someone for $800 yesterday, and none of it was liquor.

We had all the registers open at 7:00pm last night. On a Wednesday Eve!!! It was madness. At least during the holiday season, the craziness is finite. We know there's an end in site. But this is different. We've never planned for this before. And things are changing every day.

Yesterday we cut off the self-serve complimentary coffee service. If you want a cup of complimentary Trader Joe's coffee, you have to ask for it at the Demo Station. So now we have two people running the Demo Station.

We've sold so much toilet paper in the last week that the warehouse will soon be TOS. I've had to stock up just to make sure I have some on hand because I don't know how long it will be until we get more.

The same goes for can goods, rice, and pasta.

Hand sanitizers disappear in hours after we put them on the shelf, so we've had to limit 2 to a customer.

Our orders are twice what they usually are, so the back room where the deliveries come in every morning and every night, is stuffed to capacity.

And many of the customers are still surprised when they come in for something and we've sold out of it.

"YOU HAVE NO PASTA!!!"

We have daily "huddles" where managers update us on the situation as it unfolds, encourage us, thank us, commiserate with us, but frankly, we are all exhausted.

My only remedy is to get a lot of sleep and rest. To double up on my vitamins. Eat well. And meditate before I go to work. I am not panicking, but this is taking a toll.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

QMS's picture

@Anja Geitz

Here in the northeast, anytime the weather forecast is for snow, consumables disappear from grocery stores: bread, milk and dog food -- bought out. Within hours. Our supply chain being 'just-in-time' pretty much guaranties shortages. And most of the big chains are owned by the Dutch and Swedes.

Please see cross post on Airborne.

https://caucus99percent.com/comment/476981#comment-476981

good luck

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Anja Geitz's picture

@QMS

Taking care of myself is all I have control of, really.

Be Well, my friend.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

edg's picture

@QMS

The threat of a snowstorm that would hinder shopping trips for a couple days always led to runs on milk and toilet paper. I always wondered why those people thought they were going to generate so much extra poop during those 2 days. Perhaps all the extra milk consumption?

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@QMS It was always: milk, bread, eggs and smokes. I guess people were going to subsist on French Toast and Marlboro Light.

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Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.

CB's picture

@Anja Geitz
You should stock up for at least two weeks. It took about that amount of time for people in communities to get organized and start looking after their own needs. DO NOT expect the government agencies to help. They are going to be completely swamped.

I'm not sure how this will play out in the US. In China most people listened and obeyed instructions from their government. The National Guard has already been called out to ensure lock down is being complied with. There is no way in the world that the National Guard can perform these duties nation wide. Being told to stay put and follow orders by the state authorities is anathema in "The Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave".

National Guard Arrives In New Rochelle Containment Area

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@CB the other day showing a sharp downward curve in China for infections/deaths, while in the rest of the world the curve is sharply upward. Them commies really seem to have done a good job in containing the virus.

Here, it's been a triple whammy -- dangerous fast-spreading virus + lousy and expensive healthcare system with few test kits available + Idiot-in-Chief Donald J. Trump assigning duties to political hack and religious nut Mike "Half" Pence. I can understand why people would panic.

I was ahead of the curve in buying a year's worth of quality hand sanitizers for 3 adults here. Thank you very much. Now I need to make a few food runs -- if you people have left us anything ...

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CB's picture

@wokkamile
How the hell is a patriotic American company gonna make a buck? The Chinese even cheated by getting a head start. Trump needs to place more sanctions on China to level the playing field. It's obvious China had declared war before America even got it's pants on.

Jan 31, 2020
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYhcYRRhT4s]
Feb 1, 2020
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqqXvwook8Q]
Feb 3, 2020
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5LwgOeHotI]

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enhydra lutris's picture

@CB

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@CB

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enhydra lutris's picture

@Anja Geitz
certain that you are pretty constantly exhausted and stressed thanks to the nature of your job.

have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Creosote.'s picture

@enhydra lutris
vitamin C and the rest of that alphabet.
Read online about protecting your liver and kidneys when under stress.

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earthling1's picture

@TheOtherMaven @TheOtherMaven
We get Bernie Sanders and MFA.
We get universal sick leave for all.
We end homelessness.
We get vote by mail in all 50 states.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

CB's picture

@earthling1
to battle Covid-19. Everyone must do their part.

Reports have surfaced that the Clinton Foundation is partnering with George Soros to donate 50 servers (one for each state) programmed with Smartmatic engineered software to enable online voting in the 2020 general election.

This project will effectively prevent unintended infection at the polls in November when the country will be at it most vulnerable. It will ensure that all American citizens will have the ability to vote and make their voices heard during these dark times.

Here's some patriotic music for us Old Fogies:
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKAwPA14Ni4]

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Granma's picture

@CB @CB we vote by mail in OR and WA, which is also infection preventing.

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CB's picture

@Granma
A play on previous scandals involving vote rigging and illegal use of a server by Her Heinous and team.

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enhydra lutris's picture

@CB

This project will effectively prevent unintended infection at the polls in November when the country will be at it most vulnerable. It will ensure that all American citizens will have the ability to vote and make their voices heard during these dark times.

I seriously suspect that that isn't all it will ensure. Never trust known crooks with your wallet, and never trust those two anywhere near an election.

have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

@earthling1
happening. Thanks all the same.

have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

@TheOtherMaven
thanks for bringing it up.

Have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

TheOtherMaven's picture

@Lookout

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

enhydra lutris's picture

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

mimi's picture

@Lookout
and for lack of more reasonable comment, my brain tried to play fuzzy with me. I just thought how 'realistic' your sig line's hopes are.
For a tenth of a second I asked myself, what if

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

turns into

"Until injustice rolls down like water and righteousness drowns down to the bottom.

I definitely need to stop reading for a bit. My sister is very angry at me for 'socially distancing' myself from her. Sigh, sad and not that easy. The Chelsea note just makes it worse and the success of the fascist types in Germany to undermine our Democracy here, as well.

Thx. for being 'unsensational'. Smile

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enhydra lutris's picture

@mimi
you can and otherwise try to ignore the sturm und drang.

have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

@Lookout
reminding all of us of the reality and major flaw in our non-system.

have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Lookout's picture

@enhydra lutris
10 min
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byZ4osVYQC4]

The days of the doctor knowing you, your parents, your siblings, knowing where you live--i.e., a deep familiarity with you and your family--are long gone. But it's long-term relationships that cultivate caring and concern.

Modern healthcare, in contrast, is a business transaction with the odds stacked against you. The doctor is now incentivized to churn you for revenues. Because he/she barely knows you and may never even see you again, they advise revenue producing products and procedures from which they or their healthcare system (for whom they work) profit financially.

Be armed and aware of these issues and protect yourself and your family from a predatory and exploitative healthcare system.

And I agree with Maven, don't panic! And I would add be prudent.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

We do not have a first world healthcare system. We do not have a first world health administration system. The mortality rate is highly dependent on the number of hospital beds. Take a shot of vodka before you read the next facts:

Number of hospital beds per 1000 people:

Japan 13
Korea 12+
Russia 8
Germany 8
USA 2.8

This will determine the mortality rate when the virus grows to epidemic level in the US. Some percentage of the population, between 12 and 18% will be in respiratory crisis and will need the facilities available only in hospital.

You can thank the insurance companies and hospital administration for the tiny numbers of beds per 1000, essentially it is the great victory of Capitalism.

Combine this with the nearly zero effort to keep the infection out of the country and you have a bleak picture. Finally air traffic is being stopped to most of Europe. You have to isolate border traffic (transportation and individuals), test, and quarantine. Our effort here in the US gets an F- grade. We are about two weeks behind Italy, another country that totally fucked up. The entire country is in lockdown in condition Red.

We just found out that 2 case are confirmed in one of our grade schools, in a city of 40,000. Everything is being cancelled.

I called my provider and ask about getting tested, as I got a ride home from an Uber driver that was exposed to people going from Logan Airport to Biogen, now a known cluster. The response- You can only get tested if you are exposed to an individual that has been tested positive. You also need symptoms. If that criteria is met then they will make an appointment for you at the State offices to get tested, but you have to get yourself there. This is so wrong!

We need millions of test kits, then distributed to every hospital and clinic. We had an initial problem with the test not working. Now we have a problem getting one of the chemical components of the test. We have no effective policy in place for testing, isolation and quarantine. We are going to see piecemeal extreme reactions to this with no coherency. We are heading for a disaster.

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Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

QMS's picture

@The Wizard @The Wizard

For the lack of hospital beds. Here in the northeast, hospital 'groups' have been
consolidating their holdings, laying off staff and closing smaller local hospitals.
Profit motivated, not needs based. For years this has been going on now.
The big boomer generation is aging, needing more services. Not fewer facilities.

The sooner we remove the profit motive from healthcare, the better our chances
of responding to the various pox, plague, virus and bacterial infections earth is
unleashing on us as punishment for destroying the ecosystem, imo.

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enhydra lutris's picture

@QMS
comes from Profit-Based medical "care". It is a cancer.

have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

@The Wizard
word, capitalism. WE need a healthcre system, and it is really hard to see how we're going to get there from here, the insurance companies can easily afford to buy more congresspersons than the collected hoi polloi can.

have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

thanatokephaloides's picture

@enhydra lutris

WE need a healthcare system, and it is really hard to see how we're going to get there from here, the insurance companies can easily afford to buy more congresspersons than the collected hoi polloi can.

spelling corrected

We collected hoi polloi can't even get Bernie Sanders nominated to run for President.

Bad

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

enhydra lutris's picture

@thanatokephaloides

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

CB's picture

The following is an interactive chart where you can follow the progress of the disease and compare to other countries. (click on Add Country to add or subtract countries you wish to compare)

Total confirmed COVID-19 cases - Interactive

NOTE: The number of confirmed cases in that chart on Mar 10 was 696. This graph is about 1 1/2 days behind.

As of Mar 12 6:00 AM there are 1,323 (from CSSE John Hopkins)

The US now has begun the dreaded exponential rise in cases. Without massive testing of EVERYONE in an infected region, there is no way to slow the rate. It will get steeper and steeper until it plays out with massive numbers either hospitalized or in the morgue.

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enhydra lutris's picture

@CB

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

ggersh's picture

@CB https://www.unz.com/isteve/arguably-wrong-potential-american-deaths-rang...

Total population 327 million, with a single initiating infection. 12 day course of disease, initial R0 of 3.5 (as per the stats from China that Steve linked.) Assume 5% of cases are critical, 2% of those critical cases die with ICU care, 5% with general hospital care, and 50% with no care. 90,000 available ICU beds and 900,000 available hospital beds.

Run this model through to completion and it sweeps through the population in about a year, infecting most everyone (less about 9 million who escape), killing 5.4 million.

Now, suppose we impose infection controls on day 80, right about when there’s 1000 deaths from this thing. And then we vary how strong those controls are: from 0.35 (what the Chinese managed) up to nothing at all.

Here we see how the # of deaths varies with the strength of our controls. If we impose Chinese-style controls, we get away with only 5K deaths, or 1000-fold fewer than without the controls. But the inflection point isn’t just at 1.0. In particular if we can get the R0 below about 1.5 that gets us down under 500K, or a 10-fold reduction. At 1.0 we get down to about 50K. …

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I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

CB's picture

@ggersh

Total population 327 million, with a single initiating infection

The graphed situation is reflective of the outbreak in China, they had ONLY ONE epicenter.

There is going to be a much, much worse problem for the US. It will have at least five epicenters starting from five initiating infections (to my knowledge). The US national health system could barely handle one epicenter like China's - let alone 5.

Unless the US ramps up testing to at least 100,000/dy immediately there is no way in the world for the country to get in front of the curve. The country is going to overshoot the point at which it can be contained.

Trump really fucked the country over with his laissez-faire attitude two months ago when it became apparent in China that this was no ordinary flu. Trump is also mathematically challenged as shown by his comments. He is clueless about exponential growth. Maybe someone should bring a large bag of quarters to his office and drop them in a pile - 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, ... so he could get a clue.

Neither Trump nor Pence are able to provide the country with good leadership at this time. Even the experts in charge at the CDC fucked it up by not following the WHO's advice.

The US needs a man like Xi Jinping at the helm with everybody else in the ship working together. The current situation in the US is like a ship of fools with an idiot for captain.

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16 users have voted.
ggersh's picture

The guy next to tRump just tested positive for Coronavirus

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/brazilian-official-who-took-photo...

Brazilian Official Who Took Photo With Trump, Dined At Mar-a-Lago, Tests Positive For The Coronavirus

Will the quarantine Mar-a-Lago now?

0

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19 users have voted.

I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

Anja Geitz's picture

@ggersh

Trump, along with most of the politicians in Washington, ain't no spring chickens. Imagine if the virus makes its rounds among these elite, but because of their wealth and access they are bequeathed with much higher recuperation rates than the general public. Could the argument for M4A have a more viscerally relevant platform?

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18 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

ggersh's picture

@Anja Geitz I want for every ameriKan the care they get, that shouldn't be negotiable now should it.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/senator-closes-dc-office-after-staffer-...

Capitol Building & Congressional Offices Go Into Lockdown After Senate Staffer Tests Positive

"Congress is shutting down the US Capitol building to the public until April 1, along with all House and Senate offices over concerns of the coronavirus spreading."

227

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11 users have voted.

I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

mimi's picture

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6 users have voted.
vtcc73's picture

The land of who could have known?

Ecuador has a health system that is far from perfect and is constantly under funding stress but they have implemented rational measures to prevent further spread beyond Guayaquil and Quito. They will almost certainly fail to prevent further spread but limiting it seems a reasonable expectation.

I scheduled my annual physical yesterday. My doctor said that she and everybody in medicine is working like crazy to be ready for whatever happens. And she apologized for not being available for the next ten days due to that effort. Damn! I love these people.

I also went to the supermercado. They seem prepared for the swarms of human locusts already clearing shelves. They’re keeping up but I don’t know how long that will last. Fun times huh?

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19 users have voted.

"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

Lily O Lady's picture

playing without spectators. Schools are closed. A Waffle House had to close when an employee was found to be infected. But the Atlanta Motor Speedway will still hold NASCAR races this weekend. And the rodeo is still selling tickets.

The whole approach is piecemeal. A crazy-quilt of mismatched precautions.

I’m glad I early voted for Bernie. I hope I didn’t get coronavirus doing it, since I’m over 65.

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22 users have voted.

"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

travelerxxx's picture

@Lily O Lady

And the rodeo is still selling tickets.

Well, at least not the huge Houston Rodeo. They shut it down early yesterday. A man living just north of me who was at the opening day BBQ has tested positive. Tens of thousands had attended the rodeo before it was canceled.

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10 users have voted.
Lily O Lady's picture

@travelerxxx

Well, The Woodlands anyway.

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6 users have voted.

"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

travelerxxx's picture

@Lily O Lady

Well, as you probably know, The Woodlands is in Montgomery County. That's where the man lives who tested positive. Might have been Conroe, but I don't remember exactly.

I'm in Spring, which is a stone's throw (really) from The Woodlands. Where I live borders the new Exxon "Emerald City." Too close for comfort, but it did drive our property's value through the ceiling.

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6 users have voted.
gulfgal98's picture

This was a very good segment by Saager on the coronavirus today.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXeccAL9pNY]

On a personal note regarding the healthcare system and costs, I want to share a personal experience. In January, I had surgery on my leg to correct a much needed problem that I had been experiencing for two years. I am on Medicare and have one of the highest rated plans in the country as my supplementary insurance.

I was admitted for same day surgery and was out that afternoon. No overnight stays and everything went very well. The vast majority of my bill was covered by Medicare and my supplemental insurance which is through a local HMO. They (my HMO) sent me copies of all charges to see what was being paid on my behalf.

I was shocked at the total bill which was in the upper five figures. And I was also shocked that less than 5% of that total bill was actually for the medical doctor who was a specialist that performed my surgery. Half of the bill was for the use of the operating room alone. My thought was that someone must be making a bunch of money off my surgery.

Our system is not a healthcare system, but a medical crisis management system which saps people of their life savings because they are not as fortunate as I am to have a decent insurance safety net. It does not really have a preventative component to it as witnessed by the complete lack of the ability to test the population at large. And it completely ceases to work as a system designed to protect the public in cases such as this pandemic.

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21 users have voted.

Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

RantingRooster's picture

American business people would not know a pro-active decision making process if it bit them in the ass. The "cost benefit approach" to problem solving is fundamentally and fatally flawed, and Flint MI is a perfect, fucking text book example. Crazy

The "idea" was to "save the tax payers money" by switching the water supply. The "costs" of switching the water supply was supposed to increase the "benefit" the people would experience, ie saving money on their water bill.

As it turned out, "the people" paid their government to poison them physically, as well as are being forced to pay some of the highest water rates in the country.

How can we expect our "healthcare system", which is based on the Mafia biz. model, pay or die, be anywhere near prepared to handle a "pandemic"?

Capitalism reacts to problems, it usually creates, but doesn't solve them.

Being "prepared" costs money and we can't have that... because profit

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20 users have voted.

C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote

QMS's picture

@RantingRooster

unfortunately, members of congress - both states and national -
are un-incentified to correct this broken system

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12 users have voted.
ggersh's picture

@QMS https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ny-fed-conduct-1-trillion-repo-over-tw...

Bazooka Fired: Fed Unleashes $1.5 Trillion Repo Bailout, Expands "Not QE" To QE5

These changes are being made to address highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak...

743

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13 users have voted.

I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

enhydra lutris's picture

@ggersh

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5 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

travelerxxx's picture

This afternoon I received an email from the industrial supply company, Grainger. Grainger is a company that supplies American businesses with everything from Band-Aids to bolts. They also happen to be a major supplier of personal protection gear. The email addressed the company's response to the Coronavirus situation. Here's a pertinent copy clipped from the site linked to in the email (my bolded text):

• To put the challenge in perspective, over the past few weeks orders for safety masks exceeded our entire on-hand supply by several years, and in some cases, decades. We are working through this challenge and are leveraging our supplier relationships to quickly obtain available merchandise, but in some cases, shipment timing is still undefined.

• Please understand we must prioritize orders to ensure customers such as the government, first responders and hospitals have appropriate resources to assist those impacted by this virus. All other orders are arranged based on Grainger inventory management commitments, contract obligations and order timing.

What was the name of that famous creek? Schitt Creek?

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15 users have voted.

@travelerxxx

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8 users have voted.
earthling1's picture

@travelerxxx
without a means of motivation.
PC version.

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6 users have voted.

Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

snoopydawg's picture

A man in Utah thought he had the symptoms and he went to an urgent care only to be met with a sign on the door that said if you think you have this we won't see you.

Frustration mounting for people who can’t get in to see doctor

“I’ve had a fever, shortness of breath and a pretty bad cough,” said Chris Young, a FedEx employee who has been dealing with the symptoms for days.

He called in sick on Wednesday and went to an urgent care only to find out he wasn’t welcome. A sign at the door advised incoming patients not to enter the clinic if they have the symptoms associated with the novel coronavirus, adding, “FirstMed is unable to treat, test, or diagnose COVID-19."

Young said he isn’t as concerned he has the virus as he is about just being able to see a doctor. But it’s a visit he learned would be much more difficult to make amid fears about the coronavirus.

State health officials have warned from the beginning not to go directly to the hospital or clinic to avoid any potential spread of the virus and so they are not overwhelming healthcare providers.

“I’m out in your parking lot right now. I tried to come, I see a sign that says I can’t come in because of my symptoms,” Young remembers telling the receptionist over the phone.

He called the Utah Coronavirus Information line but was disappointed to get a recorded voice asking him whether he had traveled out of the country or come into contact with anyone with the virus

And this is why people think universal health care is so bad.

That is just one reason to not want medicare for all. The bigger reason is the uncontrolled access the government will have to your paycheck to pay for it. The government doesn't have the peoples' best interest in mind anymore.

Heavy sign.

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15 users have voted.

There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?

enhydra lutris's picture

@snoopydawg
Thanks for the example.

Have a good one.

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6 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

immensely frustrated by the fact that nowhere in any medical community have epidemiologists nailed down the basic facts the public, public health professionals and health care providers needs to handle this virus. Those are:
1) incubation period
2) contagious period
3) means of infection
4) first symptom
5) progression of illness once infected
6) full recovery period

Instead we get people screaming for a vaccine that doesn't exist, test kits that are not only in short supply (cost unknown) but may only confirm the presence of the virus after the incubation and contagious period and perhaps not even before the appearance of the first symptoms, and even then may not be 100% reliable, ie producing false positives and negatives.

Retrospective studies during an epidemic can only imperfectly address the above questions. Yet, there were two opportunities to collect much better data without increasing the risk to anyone and both were squandered. Leaving all of us less able to manage and contain the virus.

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9 users have voted.
enhydra lutris's picture

@Marie
widely distributed. For instance, we now know "3) means of infection" in atomic level detail. It a[[ears that some of the others are only knowable as a range of values.

have a good one.

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6 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@enhydra lutris
Yes, the virus is airborne, but that's true for most influenza. In closed laboratory conditions it remains in the air for several hours. Does that mean corridors are especially dangerous? Not buying that no person with CoVi-19 hasn't been on an airplane, and yet, we haven't seen a planeload of passengers become sickened. The virus has also been shown to "stick" it inanimate surfaces for up to several hours. But, has anyone actually been infected by touching such a surface and presumably then touching one's face?

Given what has reported to date, I could more easily protect myself from Ebola and more easily and quickly suspect if I were infected and know exactly what to do at that point.

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6 users have voted.
enhydra lutris's picture

@Marie @Marie
one, and doesn't stay airborne long at all under normal circumstances. Expelled by coughing & sneezing and travels about 3 feet which is why they aren't recommending masks. IT does stick to surfaces which are the presumed mode of transmission. They have figured out how, chemically, it adheres to lung tissue and also how it penetrates cell walls in order to reproduce. Whether that knowledge can help defeat it is anybody's guess, but folks are working on it. The US is, of course, behind the curve.

addendum:

A new analysis found that the virus can remain viable in the air for up to 3 hours, on copper for up to 4 hours, on cardboard up to 24 hours and on plastic and stainless steel up to 2 to 3 days. However, this study, which was published in the preprint database medRxiv on Wednesday (March 11), has not yet yet been peer-reviewed.

https://www.livescience.com/how-long-coronavirus-last-surfaces.html?utm_...

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5 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@enhydra lutris
because a single study is often flawed.

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2 users have voted.
snoopydawg's picture

@Marie

He was positive for the virus. The article didn't say what happened next.

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1 user has voted.

There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?

@snoopydawg
received the test results when on the plane but before it had taken off. I don't think the person remained on the plane for that flight. The other passengers are likely fine because the person boarded the plane wearing a mask and gloves.

This does point out a serious matter for medical personnel and public health. CoVid-19 tests are only being administered after a person shows symptoms that suggest possible infection. Correct that such a person should wear a mask and gloves when around other people, but they should also be quarantined until the test results are returned, and if positive remain quarantined.

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2 users have voted.
snoopydawg's picture

@Marie

and he was allowed to fly anyway? Gloves and a mask aren't that protective because he could still touch his face and get the virus on his hands and touched some surfaces. Then someone touches what he did and so on...

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1 user has voted.

There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?

@snoopydawg
misleading, non-protective, etc. advice from the CDC/NIH, public health agencies, and medical providers has been. Rule number one should be that anyone being tested (and so far that's only symptomatic individuals) must immediately self-isolate and contacts are well advised to do the same. Until a) the test comes back negative or b) until the infected person recovers and fourteen days for his/her contracts unless they become ill in which event they will be tested.

Masks and gloves for those suspected of being infected and those testing positive are essential whenever they cannot totally avoid others. Masks and gloves are useless to avoid catching the flu but are reasonably effective in preventing the spread from an infected person. At least when the contact isn't close (less than two feet) and is very brief (under a couple of minutes). Obviously lengthy contact with others (ie plane flights), particularly in enclosed spaces, must be totally avoided.

In this instance, the passenger should have been informed -- self-isolation and no travel. But there's always a few people that will ignore or defy medical advice that conflicts with what they want to do. Airlines - if they continue operating at all - must reinforce the medical advice. This case would have been easy because the mask and gloves were a giveaway that they person was ill and he shouldn't have been allowed to pass through airport security. Do that and then the next ill person defying medical orders and wanting/needing to take a plane flight will arrive without mask and gloves. That one could easily infect a large number of fellow passengers.

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2 users have voted.
Deja's picture

@Marie
I'm heading out, within the next hour or so, to pick up a couple of inhailers needed for my COPD and hopefully some veggies. I don't have symptoms, have been home all week for spring break and not exposed to the best of my knowledge, but most definitely will be wearing gloves!

I'm hoping that being slightly obsessive, compulsive will pay off. I have several sets of gloves in separate zip locks, and hand sanitizer ready for the trip. I'll put on the gloves outside the establishment, go inside and get my things, then remove the gloves before getting back into my vehicle, use the sanitizer, and go on to the next place. Still gotta figure out what to do with the possibly contaminated gloves before getting back into the truck.

I'm not sure why anyone would say gloves don't prevent getting the flu or anything that stays infectious on hard surfaces for possibly up to 9 days.

I still might catch it today, but it won't be because I didn't try not to.

The internet guy is coming this afternoon as well. He'll be asked to sanitize his hands before coming inside or touching anything.

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4 users have voted.

@Deja
Disposable gloves may be marginally helpful, but I didn't stock up on any. Keeping my distance from other people may not be all that helpful if one of those other people is infected/infectious because the virus can float in the air they exhaled in for a few hours.

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1 user has voted.

don't have $1,000 to cover an unexpected emergency bill:

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13 users have voted.
enhydra lutris's picture

@Marie

up
6 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Reagan took advantage of the 1970s oil crisis and stagflation to start this and in 1993 Hillary took the lead of the effort to solve the nation's health care problem to strangle it. Trump has not responded to the crisis, instead he has responded to its effect on the stock market and his poll numbers - but that sounds exactly - exactly - like Obama.
"it's not his fault, it's the system".
It IS the system. We care more about our stock portfolios - the ones we probably don't have - than about people, even ourselves. We care more about our "precious" jobs - the ones we hate - than about our lives. We would rather risk death than risk fixing a clear problem if that fix would change the way of life that we know and understand is making our lives hell.

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17 users have voted.

On to Biden since 1973

thanatokephaloides's picture

@doh1304

It IS the system. We care more about our stock portfolios - the ones we probably don't have - than about people, even ourselves. We care more about our "precious" jobs - the ones we hate - than about our lives. We would rather risk death than risk fixing a clear problem if that fix would change the way of life that we know and understand is making our lives hell.

More accurately:

You're merely the human being in all this, the individual who makes highly coerced "consumer choices" our of fundamental motives of "making a living" from within the purview of a capitalist system in which you and billions of others are trapped. Blaming the consumer for the whole complex is like blaming laboratory rats for the mazes they inhabit.

h/t unknown c99er

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11 users have voted.

"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

enhydra lutris's picture

@thanatokephaloides

have a good one.

up
4 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

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