CNN Exit Poll Takeaways

Here's the exit poll, chock full of sundry demographic results:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/new-hampshire?xid=ec_btn_nh

You gotta scroll down and click on "Exit Polls."

Here's one positive development off the bat:

Otherwise, off the top of my head coz I'm still groggy:

1. Bernie is having a problem reaching older bourgeois women, a very big and impactful voting bloc.

2. Never underestimate the power of mass media.

3. Most people love shiny new things.

4. The results of the primaries up the road are very uncertain. Lots depend on who drops out and who doesn't. This one ended up with a 1.5% pt. difference. Do the math.

Otherwise, lots to digest. Thoughts?

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Centaurea's picture

of the older bourgeois women?

Blum 3

(Full disclosure, I meet two of the three qualifiers to be in that demographic.)

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Wally's picture

@Centaurea @Centaurea

I just noticed I can't post a direct link to the exit polls so y'all gonna have to jiggle around to find it (scroll down from the link in the essay and click on "Exit Polls" . . .

And look what candidate won among folks who designated foreign policy as their most important issue (not Bernie).

And I just noticed that 45% of the voters in the primary were independents (Bernie won with 28%, but Buttigieg got 25% and Klobuchar 18%)

Why do you think individually and collectively even more so Buttigieg and Klobuchar got considerably more votes than Bernie with the very impactful older bourgeois women demographic?

Buttigieg won the women's vote which was 58% of the total vote: Buttigieg with 26%, Klobuchar 23% to Bernie's 22%.

Bernie won the men's vote with 31%, Buttigieg had 22%, Klobuchar 16%.

Klobuchar won the over 45 vote with 27%, Buttigieg 26% and Bernie 17%.

Incomes over $100,000: Buttigieg 34%, Klobuchar 20%, Bernie 17%.

Edit: Added a couple of Not Bernies.

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Centaurea's picture

@Wally
I was privy to a Facebook discussion amongst several people who fit the demographic. Educated, white, self-described "liberal" women over the age of 50; not members of the 0.1% but doing well in life.

(By "privy", I mean that I was like the proverbial fly on the wall, or maybe like the NSA, listening covertly. Although in retrospect, it felt somewhat like visiting a privy. Blum 3 )

Anyway, they were trying to figure out whom to vote for in the Dem primary. Most of them were having a hard time deciding. Some of them wished that Kamala Harris would make a comeback. Several possibilities for a Biden ticket were bandied about: Biden/Booker, Biden/Warren, etc.

The only thing they all knew for sure was that they were NOT going to vote for Bernie Sanders.

And of course, their ultimate goal, which presumably they thought Biden/Kamala would give them: get rid of Trump.

Bless their bourgeois hearts.

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Wally's picture

@Centaurea

Those women are probably the biggest voting bloc there is right now aside from Black women undifferentiated by class. And I get the impression that they will coalesce behind one candidate, and not towards Bernie. Bloomberg? I'm very afraid so. Is Klobuchar the viable alternative for them? Might Buttigieg continue to strike their fancy? I doubt the latter but I never imagined he would do as well as he has so far. Super Tuesday is going to be wild toss ups all over the place it seems. If Bernie can keep a solid 25% base of support going, he'll at least go into the convention with a majority of delegates. What that means is anybody's guess. While the Dem elite hate him, will they really risk alienating us so that we won't vote for their preferred nominee? From the exit polls, it sure looks like the percentage of Bernie or Busters has doubled or more from 2016. But that's just New Hampshire. Is it really going to boil down to a matter of TPTB beig willing to elevate their hatred of Bernie over their hatred of Trump? I don't really know. I'm really confused right now. I was sure this was going to be settled by Super Tuesday but now everything seems to be in flux, expecially given that Bloomberg has lots more money that he's willing to throw into politics than any of the other billionaires in the top ten (he's 9th).

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@Centaurea have now arrived at a kind of sweet spot in life and they want to keep it. When they assess the candidates' positions and decide on a voting strategy, their concerns run along the lines of ...

  1. Is it safe? e.g., will it keep me protected?
  2. Does it blend in with my values? Is it "good?"
  3. Is it comfortable?
  4. Is it socially acceptable? Does it look good on me?

Like you, Centaurea, I semi-fit the category and can understand the legitimate concerns of my age group and gender in feeling safe and included. When you get older, you do become weaker, more vulnerable, less able to defend yourself and so feel a need for protective buffering between yourself and life's rough and tumble elements. The difference may fall along lines of, e.g., do I value (love) this earth and all its creatures, the future of the human race, the well-being of generations growing up and those in the future as much as I value (love) myself in the here and now? It's where you place your center or how far your circle of concern extends out from yourself.

I think we might be able to reach and persuade other women of our age and general circumstance if we proceed with these understandings.

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Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl

Wally's picture

@laurel

Gotta Love it!

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Wally's picture

@Wally

From NH Journal:

National #NeverTrump leader Bill Kristol, founder of the conservative Weekly Standard magazine, confirmed to NHJournal that he is part of the effort, which involves tens of thousands of New Hampshire voter contacts and a six-figure budget. “Yup. I’m happy to have joined with some others to help remind New Hampshire independents, who might be accustomed to voting in the Republican primary, that this year, they may be able to make more of a difference by voting for a responsible and electable candidate in the Democratic primary,” Kristol said.
The calls don’t mention any candidates by name or endorse any specific Democrats, instead making a case for supporting centrists in the all-important First in the Nation primary, as opposed to self-described democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders.

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@Wally
From CNN exit polls - Party ID

2016...D--58%--/--I--40%--/--R--2%

2020...D--52%--/--I--45%--/--R--3%

Note: those identifying as Republicans could only vote in the Democratic primary if they'd registered as D or I months in advance of the primary.

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Wally's picture

@Marie

. . . this year. Surely enough to boost Buttigieg and Klobuchar and significantly diminish Bernie's margin of victory. Have there been any MSNBC or CNN exposes of Kristol and his efforts? Of course not.

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Cassiodorus's picture

@Wally Or something.

https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2020/02/09/big-buttigieg-bloviations-notes-...

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

Raggedy Ann's picture

@Centaurea
I might be an older bourgeois woman, too! Does that mean I need to stop supporting Bernie? I haven't gotten the memo yet! Shok

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

Wally's picture

@Raggedy Ann

And Biden's not getting much support from there, either. He's not getting much support from anywhere it seems.

Edit/add: And I thought Bernie would make some headway with his ads attacking Biden on Social Security, but it seems he has to make some kind of increased special efforts to reach both older men and women. I'm looking at 45 and older.

To be sure, that age seems to be the biggest dividing line overall in this election in terms of Bernie's popularity.

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Raggedy Ann's picture

@Wally
I was being completely sarcastic and having fun doing it! Thanks for giving me the space for that. Pleasantry

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

Centaurea's picture

@Raggedy Ann
members of the bourgeoisie hang around here at C99.

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Wally's picture

@Centaurea

seems to qualify as bourgie, no? I mean it's an attitude and outlook, too. How someone is employed and/or independently being productive for income factors in, too -- relation to means of production and all that. But strictly from a modern day economic perspective, I think a family income of $100,000 is roughly the dividing line from working class. And "working class" today ain;t what "proletarian" used to be, either.

Quickie dictionary definition of Bourgeoisie: a class or group of people with social behavior and political views held to be influenced by private-property interest

Whatever. I was just trying to make some sense of the exit poll demographic data to figure out why Bernie isn't doing better.

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Centaurea's picture

@Wally @Wally @Wally

I think of that term applying mostly to the mindset, not simply the level of income or net worth.

Merriam-Webster dictionary definition:

1: of, relating to, or characteristic of the social middle class

2: marked by a concern for material interests and respectability and a tendency toward mediocrity

3: dominated by commercial and industrial interests :CAPITALISTIC

Mediocre, materialistic, worried about appearances, and conventional.

Edit:
Those are not people who will be in favor of a revolution. They are attached to the status quo, and do not want to challenge themselves or their conventional beliefs. They are mostly comfortable in life. They do not want change unless it involves more wealth and social status for themselves.

People like that cannot comprehend what Bernie's movement is about. It scares them.

Additional edit: I guess I'm describing the worldview of the neoliberal rank-and-file. These folks think of themselves as liberal, but they actually have a conservative mindset (lowercase "c", meaning they want to preserve the status quo and hold onto what they've got) but have socially liberal views, aka "identity politics".

Thus, Buttigieg and Klobuchar would be right up their alley.

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25 users have voted.

"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Wally's picture

@Centaurea

I was greatly enthused when I saw Bernie's ad about him being Trump's biggest nightmare.

Being from a working class background and a child of the sixties but having managed to find my way into the professional middle class, I love Bernie's emphasis on revolution and class stuggle. . . but not so much most folks I know. They strive to elevate themselves even more so within the present system. I'm comfortably (for me) retired now but I was never big on ambition. Lotsa folks enthusiastically buy into the bourgeious individualistic ethos unlike most C99ers. And they seem to vote proportionately more so than poorer and working class folks. And I'm afraid they do indeed see Bernie as threatening to their strivings. And the MSM is really going to play into those fears in the coming months in much more subtle and persistent ways than Chris Matthews spewing nonsense about executions in Central park (although that plays into it, too). They are already ratcheting up the idea that Bernie's going to destroy your retirement stock porfolio, etc etc etc. Arggh/acccck. It's exasperating.

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gulfgal98's picture

@Centaurea These are the people who are disconnected from the lives and challenges facing over half of this country. They got theirs, so why should they care about the people who are 'too lazy to pull themselves up by their own boot straps."

This is the classic neoliberal mindset.It is also what the Democratic party has become which is the party of the white collar professional class. They are educated, or have married well. They live in safe and often gated communities away from the riffraff of ordinary people. Their children go to the best schools, often private schools, and are on the path toward getting into a highly regarded university where they will mingle with others just like themselves. This is America of today...highly stratified and exclusive, favoring the haves over the have nots. Bernie (also Tulsi) is challenging that comfortable stratification and they are terrified.

What these people fail to realize is the oligarchy does not really care about them either and will eventually hollow out their class just as it has our formerly thriving blue collar middle class.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

@gulfgal98

Would add that other than political party affiliation, which they tenaciously cling to, they are indistinguishable from the Republicans in their age, income, and self image.

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@Centaurea
motivated by their “privilege” which makes them indifferent to the needs and concerns of the great swath of society. Surely these “bourgeois” white women have GOT to be down with Sanders on that point alone?

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Raggedy Ann's picture

@Wally
comment before I commented myself. My initial reaction was do not rely on income! It IS a mindset.

I know these people. They constantly tell me to STFU about upending the status quo!

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

Wally's picture

@Raggedy Ann

And formed in relation to control and means of production. I suppose I have more of a Marxian bent than some folks here although at most I'm a Groucho Marxist (and often grouchy). And most of what I learned about it, I've forgotten.

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earthling1's picture

@Wally
an important issue.
"feel a need for protective buffering between yourself and life's rough and tumble elements. The difference may fall along lines of, e.g., do I value (love) this earth and all its creatures, the future of the human race, the well-being of generations growing up and those in the future as much as I value (love) myself in the here and now? "
The older we get the more we worry about having and keeping enough resources (money) to provide a confortable lifestyle until we die, which we have no idea when that will happen.
I can say it is not a gender issue alone.
Younger people feel they have their whole future ahead of them, and are not as concerned they are making a mistake supporting Sanders.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

Wally's picture

@Raggedy Ann

Hang in there.

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@Centaurea
Maybe they are the ones that boosted Klobuchar

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I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

edg's picture

@Centaurea

think of the women copy.png

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Wally's picture

@edg

Everybody's probably seen the video of the until recently undecided older bourgeois woman being interviewed by the MSNBC guy in that NH restaurant where she tells him she's now voting for Bernie because of MSNBC's biased and misleading coverage. Krystal features it here in her take this morning:

[video:https://youtu.be/Ra_uS0mg8Wc]

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Centaurea's picture

@Wally

she's waking up (and not in the "woke" way). We need more of that to happen.

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

CIA Pete may have won? I'm not anticipating a CIA or a Klob victory in SC, but coupled with the suspicious caucus fuckery out of Iowa and into Nevada, let's just say I'm grateful that the centrist vote is being split. (Same argument for Warren dropping out: splitting the progressive vote. And no path to victory.)

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Wally's picture

@Le Frog

. . . I think it's pretty doubtful that he'll have the money to continue but he'll probably slog it out through Super Tuesday. I'm really amazed by this development.

I doubt that the DNC powerbrokers will let Warren drop out. And she was really slimy taking shots at Bernie and everyone else for that matter during her concession speech last night. I have a feeling her "progressive" support will turn more so to candidates other than Bernie if she drops out. I will be shocked if she under any circumstance endorses Bernie.

Right now it's shaping up into a four person race between Bernie, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and the dreaded Bloomberg.

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@Wally

Bloomie is not on the ballot.
Oh, noes!

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Wally's picture

@QMS

I'm not sure if in every state . . .

Will Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters migrate over to him? Or will they remain loyal?

Why hasn't Obama made any objection to Bloomberg making it look like Obama is endorsing him in his ads? I mean if Trump so much as uses some rock song, that artist makes a big stink right away.

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TheOtherMaven's picture

@Wally

to his Stop Bernie At All Costs movement, and may mean he will have to step in himself - and find out just how much his legacy has become tarnished.

I think he'd rather not do that, but rely on surrogates as long as possible.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

Wally's picture

@TheOtherMaven

If anybody sees Obama objecting to those Bloomberg ads, please post here.

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Steven D's picture

@Wally Obama was behind Bloomberg jumping in the race because of how bad Biden was doing.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

Wally's picture

@Steven D

... pushing Bloomberg than Obama. But with Biden looking like he's on the verge of political insolvency, maybe birds of a feather are flocking together.

It's all coming down to whether Bernie and we can mount a challenge to the billionaires. We sure as hall have to try coz I don't see it getting any easier anytime in any of our lifetimes up the road.

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@Wally after all, he's what, the 9th or so wealthiest person in the world, and totally in a different class from the Clintons or Obama. I can see him being sweet-talked a bit, but it looks to me that Bloomberg is going to do what Bloomberg feels is best for Bloomberg, and the concerns of what he sees as the proletarian rabble (that is, those at the level of the Clintons) are not going to be of much concern to him, other than where they run parallel to his desires.

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Wally's picture

@MichaelSF

I've read that Bloomberg and Clintons Inc. have long been tight. I don't really know that much about how Bloomberg and Obama go back (aside from Bloombergs new commercial not being challenged by Obama).

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snoopydawg's picture

@MichaelSF

Centrists support Bloomberg cuz he has the money to beat Trump which is the most important issue for many people this election. Policies? Nah don't need to focus on them cuz we got to get Trump out of office.

I don't know him well, but so far he seems to be a real no nonsense strong candidate to take on Trump.

As to his long history of being a republican and is just using the party to run as a dem:

To be fair he was a Democrat before he was a Republican.

Well alrighty then. But don't look at it as Mike just doing whatever it takes to further his $$$$ gigs. For gawd's sake his stop and frisk and now his history for why he supported it should be enough to say No Thanks! But.

Supporters of the guy who refuses to join the Democratic party are suddenly concerned about who is or isn't a member of the party.

Yeah just overlook how dems have 'let' him sit on their many committees. He's not a democrat.

Can the bar get any lower for anti Trumpers?

I’ll take a racist president over a racist dictator any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Purity. Drink!

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5 users have voted.

Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

@MichaelSF to be sweet-talked. Traditionally, once you reach a certain office, like Mayor of NYC, Gov of CA or NY, a US Senator, or Mayor of South Bend, you naturally begin to think about becoming President.

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gulfgal98's picture

@TheOtherMaven I think Obama knows that his legacy is tarnished, but does not care as long as his sycophants still believe that he was "the greatest President evah" and he continues to ride the post Presidential gravy train.

Obama's problem with Bernie is that Bernie's success amplifies Obama's failure.

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24 users have voted.

Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

gulfgal98's picture

@Wally has been losing staff recently and that her campaign is bleeding massive amounts of money. How a campaign allocates its resources is a good indicator of how they will fare in the long term. It seems as though Warren was not that fiscally conservative when it came to campaign spending. With her very poor showing in a neighboring state, I am willing to bet her money sources will dry up soon.

Warren was always destined to have to fight an uphill battle for the nomination because the bulk of her support came from a very narrow slice of the electorate, mostly white, upper class and highly educated people. That group may provide financing, but they cannot provide enough votes to win in the general.

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14 users have voted.

Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

@gulfgal98 staff (like Bernie), good pay and perks, and it's 1000 strong, so one of the largest paid campaign organizations.

Her funding is also from small donations, as she made a point months ago of refusing large campaign contributions.

I think she and Biden are done right now. Both could spare everyone further unnecessary embarrassment by dropping out after SC, but it's possible Biden might pony soldier on thru SupTues.

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Roy Blakeley's picture

@Le Frog yes. There is lots of evidence that the security establishement interfered unsuccessfully in the last Presidential election. Klobuchar is CIA friendly, but she is not CIA. Buttigieg, if you think about it, is less qualified to be President than Sarah Palin. He was a mediocre (at best) mayor of a small midwestern city. So why is he now taken seriously? Why did Obama support him so early? Is there any real boundary between McKinsey and Co. and the CIA? If Buttigieg is President, we will be governed by the security establishment, not just governed by someone friendly with the security establishment, but someone who is part of the security establishment.

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Anja Geitz's picture

But I'm having a difficult time believing any of those results.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Wally's picture

@Anja Geitz

Or are you just questioning the vote tabulation determining the final results?

I think Bernie's team is really good this time around. Chuck Rocha seems to know what he's doing.

As if we don't all have enough information overload already, here's his twitter: https://twitter.com/ChuckRocha

Here he is talking about the road ahead this morning:

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can't make second place in either Nevada or South Carolina, we can then stop worrying about him. If he does in either one, then we should start getting concerned.

If Biden can't get second place in either, his campaign is finished. He may stick it out through SuperTuesday, but it won't matter.

If Biden drops out and Warren drops out after SuperTuesday (or before), I'm hoping Buttigieg, Kobuchar, and Bloomberg will all stay in to split the establishment/centrist/rightist vote. Otherwise, Bernie's chances are in trouble.

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Wally's picture

@apenultimate

For now, it's certainly better the more centrist candidates stay in.

I have a feeling that the bunch of them will cut deals with the money man right after Super Tuesday.

Then it will be a battle between Bloomberg and Bernie.

But I'm also pretty sure that it's unwise to ever underestimate the narcissism and hubris of any politician. So maybe this one or that one or even a few will stay in.

Or maybe DNCers with clout will try to keep the field large to mitigate against Bernie having the majority of delegates going into the convention. Maybe they are afraid he could actually take on Bloomberg one on one.

I really don't know how it's going to pan out.

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gulfgal98's picture

@Wally

DNCers with clout will try to keep the field large to mitigate against Bernie having the majority of delegates going into the convention. Maybe they are afraid he could actually take on Bloomberg one on one.

The DNC wants the field as dilute as possible.

Many of us, myself included, keep looking at who can do best against Trump (hint: it is Bernie by all accounts), but that is not what is important to the DNC and the money people. They really do not care if they beat Trump. The only thing about Trump they really dislike is his style, not his agenda. But they care far more about beating Bernie and his agenda. They have far more in common with Trump than Bernie.

Sadly it is already beginning to look like it will go to a brokered convention. If that happens, no one will really know what the outcome will be except it will not be Bernie or his agenda.

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20 users have voted.

Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

edg's picture

@gulfgal98

The only thing about Trump they really dislike is his style, not his agenda.

I don't think they even dislike his style. It gives them something to focus attention on instead of the things that matter to us small people.

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lotlizard's picture

@edg  
— getting the person watching to focus involuntarily on the magician’s patter and sweeping, irrelevant gestures rather than the subtle, almost imperceptible motions that make the tricks work.

People on all sides, with all kinds of things to hide, find Trump’s gyrations useful as hooks for misdirection.

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10 users have voted.
earthling1's picture

@lotlizard
of Mussolini giving a speech and couldn't help but notice the facial expressions, body gyrations, and hand gestures were identical to Trump's.
Even the tyrants political and social policies are eerily similar.
I was just stunned.

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5 users have voted.

Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@edg

Yeah. Like staying alive.

I guess that's not important to psychopaths.

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10 users have voted.

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

edg's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

Many of the world's elite, including hedge fund managers, sports stars and tech executives (Bill Gates is rumored to have bunkers at all his properties) have chosen to design their own secret shelters to house their families and staff.

Gary Lynch, general manager of Texas-based Rising S Company, says 2016 sales for their custom high-end underground bunkers grew 700% compared to 2015, while overall sales have grown 300% since the November US presidential election alone.

Source: Billionaire bunkers: How the 1% are preparing for the apocalypse

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5 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@edg

they're still psychopaths.

Allow me to demonstrate.

One can live in a luxurious bunker and rule over a devastated landscape littered with corpses, with only about 1/2 billion living people left to lord it over.

Or one could live on an eminently habitable, resource-rich, beautiful planet where you can go outside without a fucking gas mask, populated by many thriving civilizations and many billions of people whom you can lord it over. And with the right marketing--not at all hard to create--you can even get those billions to be *grateful* to you for running things. Because you saved them from climate change and pioneered the new energy era, like a good, innovative entrepreneur.

And why do you choose the former over the latter?

Because some of you, those who make money primarily off weapons, petroleum, methane and coal, are unwilling to abandon those extremely lucrative ventures, though the weaponsmakers could easily find another pretext for selling their products, and even the petroleum, methane and coal barons would be *running* the new energy era, being well-positioned for that on top of their particular industry with personal wealth in the multi-billions.

Either they fundamentally misunderstand the capitalist system they inhabit or they are spoiled children refusing to put down a toy--and throwing a temper tantrum because they were asked to do so. Under these circumstances, that sort of infantile behavior borders on lunacy.

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2 users have voted.

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

@gulfgal98 dull affairs since '68 and '72. I might want to be highly entertained by a brokered Dem convention for a refreshing change. Maybe sans the police riot against demonstrators in the streets outside.

But that would be in the scenario where Bernie goes in with a strong plurality lead, say 300-400 delegates over the 2d place person, probably Bloomie.

No way the convention could steal one for the backroom billionaire -- then there would be rioting in the streets, and the nomination wouldn't be worth a plugged nickel. Even the white bread dullard careerist centrists at Morning Joe would wake up and notice the theft. Chris Matthews of course would approve.

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6 users have voted.

Bernie ahead by around 6% were consistent with both the preliminary polls and the exits polls. For that lead to be diminished gradually throughout the night required #MayorCheat to do better or on par with Bernie for all of the remaining returns, in defiance of the polls. In other words, the early release of returns just happened to encompass exactly the areas where returns matched the polls. But for the remainder of the night the polls were wrong by about 5%.

The pattern looks as if the first release of returns (the ones that matched the polls) were used to measure Bernie's lead and to calculate the required cheat factor which could be applied gradually to the remaining returns to inconspicuously overcome it.

This was the same pattern I saw with Joe Lieberman vs. Ned Lamont in CT. The early returns showed Ned Lamont substantially ahead. Then, for the rest of the returns Joe Gradually closed the gap.

Imagine if I challenged you to flip a spoonful of chocolate pudding at New Hampshire map, and I directed you to splatter some towns whose vote average decisively favors Bernie leaving all unsplattered towns whose average favors #MayorCheat. Think you could do it? Probably not. That's what happened last night.

Look! With 20% reporting Bernie leads by 6%. Ohhh. Sadly, for the remaining 80% Buttigieg is gaining or on par with Bernie. Sorry, too bad. wah-wah-waaahhh

I'll be watching for this pattern of Bernie having a clear lead in early returns which is slowly whittled away throughout the evening. It's not an organic pattern. I think Bernie was screwed last night with the goal of making sure #MayorCheat receives the same number of delegates as Bernie. I think we are going to see a pattern of subtle cheating designed to keep Bernie under the 50% delegate mark.

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24 users have voted.
Anja Geitz's picture

@entrepreneur

Bernie ahead by around 6% were consistent with both the preliminary polls and the exits polls. For that lead to be diminished gradually throughout the night required #MayorCheat to do better or on par with Bernie for all of the remaining returns, in defiance of the polls.

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19 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@entrepreneur

I think we are going to see a pattern of subtle cheating designed to keep Bernie under the 50% delegate mark.

Rather than one big cheating event they'll do it in small subtle increments. Then come the convention if Bernie is still winning but under the 50% threshold, they'll trot out the "who is the most electable" trope and then award the nomination to a centrist because communism/socialism.

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30 users have voted.
mimi's picture

@JtC
Couldn't that one be hacked to cheat the cheat producing programmers?

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5 users have voted.
gulfgal98's picture

@mimi [video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ezmpqwVEnM]

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15 users have voted.

Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

mimi's picture

@gulfgal98
and vote by carving my choice into stone tablets. Thank you, gulfgal.

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6 users have voted.

@entrepreneur

the subtleties of machinations
seem to be lost on the pundits
eyes wide shut

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14 users have voted.

@entrepreneur prior to the 2000 election theft, exit polls were heavily relied upon by the MSM and reported on extensively as the vote count trickled in.

Then it was decided in that 2000 Long Count, that they weren't necessarily all that reliable. I think that was because they showed Al Gore winning the presidency.

It's a good check against vote counting shenanigans, especially in cases where the reported actual count from various areas consistently favors one candidate against the exit polling.

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6 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@entrepreneur

and actually likelier than NHK's hypothesis that it was a reaction to the Bernie voters booing at Pete. Although his larger point stands: there is no percentage in booing at Pete.

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2 users have voted.

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

actually likelier than NHK's hypothesis that it was a reaction to the Bernie voters booing at Pete.

A bungled campaign stunt doesn't mean the weren't also shaving votes from Bernie.

Bernie can only do so much about the vote rigging, but what he CAN control is his own campaign making unforced errors that cost him votes. And however accurate or not the final official vote tally, the exit poll numbers show clearly that undecideds broke AGAINST Bernie in the final days.

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5 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger Bernie's camp needs to use a softer, cleverer touch, something which might get well rubbed but which is kinda funny. Like Clinton's 1992 use of the guy in the chicken suit to hang out at Poppy Bush's campaign appearances to call out his refusal to debate (iirc). Or the many delightful Dick Tuck stunts against Nixon in '60 and '62. Hilarious.

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3 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@wokkamile

LOL that brings back memories.

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7 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

regardless of whether the decrease in votes was organic or pre-fab.

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1 user has voted.

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

snoopydawg's picture

@entrepreneur

and the media tried to do everything it could to erase Bernie's win last night. Check out this graphic.

msnbc.jpeg

As New Hampshire on Tuesday voted Sen. Bernie Sanders the winner of the nation's first 2020 Democratic presidential primary, corporate media worked tirelessly to spin the results in favor of centrist candidates former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar and to downplay a second win for Sanders after the Feb 3 Iowa caucuses.

And this was the Reuters tweet on the election:'

Pete Buttigieg finishes second in New Hampshire primary, Amy Klobuchar third

The Slimes:

"No. 1 story of the night: Amy Klobuchar," tweeted Gabriel. "No. 2 story of the night (so far): Pete Buttigieg coming closer to Bernie Sanders than expected."

More plugs for Mike.

Again for those rich people in the back. The current system is not working for millions of us and just wanting to beat Trump and replace him with another ex republican and oligarch is not going to change that for us. It must be really nice to not have to worry about $$$$ if you have it and it is lower than low to fight against those of us who are living on the edge.

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11 users have voted.

Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

snoopydawg's picture

@snoopydawg

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8 users have voted.

Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

no surprise here

the split within the Democratic party is getting stronger and stronger – no wonder, since the struggle between the Democratic establishment and the Sanders wing is the only true political struggle going on.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/480606-us-ideological-civil-war/

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21 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

went overwhelmingly for Pete.

Part of that is obviously an Iowa and media bump, but I suspect part of that may have been an own goal scored when Sanders supporters showed up and booed at Buttigieg's last big rally.

Sanders supporters thought it was funny, but videos like that play into the Bernie Bro narrative that Berners are like thuggish Trumpers. It's a bad look, and those optics likely turned off a lot of late undecideds already anxious about the primary's increasingly negative tone.

We need to stay positive, and stunts like trolling opponents' events only hurt us in the end.

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8 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Wally's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

Yea, I've been getting increasingly worried about that. I understand how hard it is not to react with such emotions after the experience of Iowa and the intenifying media assault against Bernie. And I understand that booing is small change compared to the shit TPTB are doing to Bernie and us and the world. But we need to consider how certain displays of negativity play into the media narrative against Bernie. I think it's necessary but problematic for Bernie to keep pushing class struggle and revolution and democratic socialism. Here's a pretty good article I just read in the Atlantic about how Bernie's ideological foundation is just bound to turn off many older middle class folks. The trick is to somehow push it forward without all the angst and negativity towards other candidates whose voters will turn to Bloomberg if just the right approach to them isn't figured out. The emphasis on getting folks to vote for the first time or the first time in years is fine especially for the general election but in terms of primaries, where only 20% of voters go to the polls, you can't ignore and/or piss off folks who are prime voters who aren't in our camp, whose votes Bernie needs to move forward as other candidates fail.

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6 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Wally

The trick is to somehow push it forward without all the angst and negativity towards other candidates whose voters will turn to Bloomberg if just the right approach to them isn't figured out.

is that the Bernie campaign organized this. The whole thing looked way too coordinated for comfort.

I saw Jeff Weaver in an interview somewhere (maybe w/Krystal?) say they've got tricks in store for Buttigieg in Nevada. If these tricks are anything like the NH Pete rally trolling, somebody needs to slap Weaver upside the head with the exit poll data toot suite.

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5 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Wally's picture

@wokkamile @Not Henry Kissinger

Pete started talking shit about Bernie and folks booed.

I wish they hadn't coz it plays into the bernie bro mob bullying trope.

Some might argue, however, that the booing gives indication that Berners won't accept another centrist candidate hoisted upon us.

Maybe we need to think more about them, not just us.

I have no idea what percentage of undecided voters saw or were aware of the booing incident.

Other factors could have also pushed undecideds towards Buttigieg and Klobuchar, too. The media was certainly relentlessly vicious against Bernie. And boosting those two like crazy. And unlike C99ers and other social media folks (I think there were only 10% of the folks in that exit poll who indicated they read twitter), undecided voters rely on TV news, TV commercials and newspapers to inform them. Again, in whatever event, we shouldn't underestimate the power of MSM.

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6 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Wally

its about the campaign organizing the outing in the first place. Stupid and counterproductive.

Think about it: you're an undecided, maybe first time voter who simply wants to hear what Pete has to say. So you go to the event and up in the rafters a crowd of Bernie supporters is shouting down Pete standing there all alone on the stage.

How intimidated might that voter feel? Who looks like the underdog to the voter? What sort of sympathy is generated for THE most unsympathetic candidate in the race?

So the voter goes home and tells everyone about what jerks the Bernie people were to Pete, maybe then turns on Chris Matthews and gets her fears of mob rule validated, and then (and this is the worst bit) goes on Twitter to see the incident reposted OVER and OVER by amped up Bernie supporters THEMSELVES.

Heck, even if the voter did NOT attend the rally. Just seeing that booing vid alone could be enough to flip her vote.

A cringeworthy moment that didn't need to happen and probably cost Bernie with undecideds.

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5 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger The event where Sanders (and evening some Warren) supporters bood Pete was not a Pete rally. It was an event where ALL the candidates spoke in sequence and ALL of them rallied their supporters to it. It’s held every New Hampshire primary season. So Bernie’s team did NOT arrange for his supporters to crash a Pete rally.

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10 users have voted.
earthling1's picture

@TB mare
That explains the Bernie placards many were waving. It was a mixed crowd of supporters and fair game.

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2 users have voted.

Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@earthling1

It was a mixed crowd of supporters and fair game.

You are really missing the point here.

Whatever permission you think is gained for this behavior by the nature of the event is far outweighed by the reaction to it.

There is NO scenario where booing primary opponents in a open candidate forum helps Bernie with undecideds.

None.

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4 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

earthling1's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger
If I were an undecided sitting there hearing a candidate dissing another and heard NO responce, I would tend to think the diss was warranted.
But hearing blowback, or booing, would make me think the diss was an un warranted attack.
But thats just me.
YMMV

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4 users have voted.

Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@earthling1 @earthling1

speak for themselves. The little tantrum and its promotion clearly didn't help.

Seriously, if Pete fucking Buttigieg is winning over late breaking undecideds, then the Bernie campaign and its supporters need to look hard into the mirror and ask themselves why.

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3 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@TB mare @TB mare
but it doesn't change the underlying point.

It was an event where ALL the candidates spoke in sequence and ALL of them rallied their supporters to it.

Indeed, if this was a multi-candidate forum, that's even MORE reason for Bernie supporters to behave themselves.

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2 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

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14 users have voted.
snoopydawg's picture

@MrWebster

Election is about class warfare

The most obvious was when Joe kept flailing the elite class started getting nervous and they started asking lots of rich people to jump in and save the election from Bernie and pseudo progressive Warren. MSDNC and the Clinton News Netwrecks kept having people on to talk about how bad their agendas were. For them. They want the stealing from the working class and poor class to continue unabated.

If Obama ever does jump in and starts talking against Bernie then Bernie should put out ads about how Obama oversaw the biggest wealth transfer in history and how wealth inequality has gone to the levels not seen since the Great Depression and how the Great Recession never ended for the working class. BFD that the stock market is doing great right now. It wouldn't be if the feds weren't pouring trillions into it to keep it propped up. Just more stealing from the lower classes.

As for the ACA. 20 million people were able to get health insurance. Great for them, not so great for the other millions that were left off. And it did nothing to stop the insurance companies from gouging people. 500,000 medical bankruptcies a year. 1.5 million kids homeless. Homelessness in general continuing to rise and young people priced out of the housing market because the elite class are still holding houses off the market.

Class warfare indeed.

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12 users have voted.

Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

lotlizard's picture

@snoopydawg  
and they didn’t know much about U.S. politics but found Trump grating and were nostalgic for Obama, his suave persona, smoother delivery, and better optics.

I realized once again what a piss-poor job German media do at conveying accurately what’s really happening in North America (let alone Hawaii) and what’s going through the minds of Americans outside the Atlanticist elite.

Just another tile in the mosaic of reasons I’ve turned against German public broadcasting in recent years and now resent the $250 per year tax (soon to increase by 10 percent) all households are forced to pay to support it.

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3 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

won't vote Sanders because they were Hillary voters last time.

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17 users have voted.

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
rhyme with gorgeous?

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3 users have voted.

@QMS is how I say it.

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4 users have voted.

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