CNN Exit Poll Takeaways
Here's the exit poll, chock full of sundry demographic results:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/new-hampshire?xid=ec_btn_nh
You gotta scroll down and click on "Exit Polls."
Here's one positive development off the bat:
With all of Nashua in, Sanders has won the 7 largest cities in NH
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) February 12, 2020
Otherwise, off the top of my head coz I'm still groggy:
1. Bernie is having a problem reaching older bourgeois women, a very big and impactful voting bloc.
2. Never underestimate the power of mass media.
3. Most people love shiny new things.
4. The results of the primaries up the road are very uncertain. Lots depend on who drops out and who doesn't. This one ended up with a 1.5% pt. difference. Do the math.
Otherwise, lots to digest. Thoughts?
Comments
Please, won't someone think
of the older bourgeois women?
(Full disclosure, I meet two of the three qualifiers to be in that demographic.)
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
Look who's the climate change candidate (not Bernie)
I just noticed I can't post a direct link to the exit polls so y'all gonna have to jiggle around to find it (scroll down from the link in the essay and click on "Exit Polls" . . .
And look what candidate won among folks who designated foreign policy as their most important issue (not Bernie).
And I just noticed that 45% of the voters in the primary were independents (Bernie won with 28%, but Buttigieg got 25% and Klobuchar 18%)
Why do you think individually and collectively even more so Buttigieg and Klobuchar got considerably more votes than Bernie with the very impactful older bourgeois women demographic?
Buttigieg won the women's vote which was 58% of the total vote: Buttigieg with 26%, Klobuchar 23% to Bernie's 22%.
Bernie won the men's vote with 31%, Buttigieg had 22%, Klobuchar 16%.
Klobuchar won the over 45 vote with 27%, Buttigieg 26% and Bernie 17%.
Incomes over $100,000: Buttigieg 34%, Klobuchar 20%, Bernie 17%.
Edit: Added a couple of Not Bernies.
Earlier tonight
I was privy to a Facebook discussion amongst several people who fit the demographic. Educated, white, self-described "liberal" women over the age of 50; not members of the 0.1% but doing well in life.
(By "privy", I mean that I was like the proverbial fly on the wall, or maybe like the NSA, listening covertly. Although in retrospect, it felt somewhat like visiting a privy.
)
Anyway, they were trying to figure out whom to vote for in the Dem primary. Most of them were having a hard time deciding. Some of them wished that Kamala Harris would make a comeback. Several possibilities for a Biden ticket were bandied about: Biden/Booker, Biden/Warren, etc.
The only thing they all knew for sure was that they were NOT going to vote for Bernie Sanders.
And of course, their ultimate goal, which presumably they thought Biden/Kamala would give them: get rid of Trump.
Bless their bourgeois hearts.
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
That really, really scares me.
Those women are probably the biggest voting bloc there is right now aside from Black women undifferentiated by class. And I get the impression that they will coalesce behind one candidate, and not towards Bernie. Bloomberg? I'm very afraid so. Is Klobuchar the viable alternative for them? Might Buttigieg continue to strike their fancy? I doubt the latter but I never imagined he would do as well as he has so far. Super Tuesday is going to be wild toss ups all over the place it seems. If Bernie can keep a solid 25% base of support going, he'll at least go into the convention with a majority of delegates. What that means is anybody's guess. While the Dem elite hate him, will they really risk alienating us so that we won't vote for their preferred nominee? From the exit polls, it sure looks like the percentage of Bernie or Busters has doubled or more from 2016. But that's just New Hampshire. Is it really going to boil down to a matter of TPTB beig willing to elevate their hatred of Bernie over their hatred of Trump? I don't really know. I'm really confused right now. I was sure this was going to be settled by Super Tuesday but now everything seems to be in flux, expecially given that Bloomberg has lots more money that he's willing to throw into politics than any of the other billionaires in the top ten (he's 9th).
Yes. Women who were activists way back when
have now arrived at a kind of sweet spot in life and they want to keep it. When they assess the candidates' positions and decide on a voting strategy, their concerns run along the lines of ...
Like you, Centaurea, I semi-fit the category and can understand the legitimate concerns of my age group and gender in feeling safe and included. When you get older, you do become weaker, more vulnerable, less able to defend yourself and so feel a need for protective buffering between yourself and life's rough and tumble elements. The difference may fall along lines of, e.g., do I value (love) this earth and all its creatures, the future of the human race, the well-being of generations growing up and those in the future as much as I value (love) myself in the here and now? It's where you place your center or how far your circle of concern extends out from yourself.
I think we might be able to reach and persuade other women of our age and general circumstance if we proceed with these understandings.
Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl
Here's an OBW challenging Bloomberg today
Gotta Love it!
Where did all those independents come from in NH?
From NH Journal:
Have some numbers
From CNN exit polls - Party ID
2016...D--58%--/--I--40%--/--R--2%
2020...D--52%--/--I--45%--/--R--3%
Note: those identifying as Republicans could only vote in the Democratic primary if they'd registered as D or I months in advance of the primary.
So independents were almost half of Dem primary voters in NH
. . . this year. Surely enough to boost Buttigieg and Klobuchar and significantly diminish Bernie's margin of victory. Have there been any MSNBC or CNN exposes of Kristol and his efforts? Of course not.
Gee, maybe Bernie should step up his use of vacuous platitudes
Or something.
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2020/02/09/big-buttigieg-bloviations-notes-...
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
Maybe me, too.
I might be an older bourgeois woman, too! Does that mean I need to stop supporting Bernie? I haven't gotten the memo yet!
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
You're not exactly in the mainstream of that demographic
And Biden's not getting much support from there, either. He's not getting much support from anywhere it seems.
Edit/add: And I thought Bernie would make some headway with his ads attacking Biden on Social Security, but it seems he has to make some kind of increased special efforts to reach both older men and women. I'm looking at 45 and older.
To be sure, that age seems to be the biggest dividing line overall in this election in terms of Bernie's popularity.
Thanks for taking that comment seriously.
I was being completely sarcastic and having fun doing it! Thanks for giving me the space for that.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Yeah, I'm not sure how many actual
members of the bourgeoisie hang around here at C99.
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
Family Income over $100,000
seems to qualify as bourgie, no? I mean it's an attitude and outlook, too. How someone is employed and/or independently being productive for income factors in, too -- relation to means of production and all that. But strictly from a modern day economic perspective, I think a family income of $100,000 is roughly the dividing line from working class. And "working class" today ain;t what "proletarian" used to be, either.
Quickie dictionary definition of Bourgeoisie: a class or group of people with social behavior and political views held to be influenced by private-property interest
Whatever. I was just trying to make some sense of the exit poll demographic data to figure out why Bernie isn't doing better.
"Bourgeois"
I think of that term applying mostly to the mindset, not simply the level of income or net worth.
Merriam-Webster dictionary definition:
Mediocre, materialistic, worried about appearances, and conventional.
Edit:
Those are not people who will be in favor of a revolution. They are attached to the status quo, and do not want to challenge themselves or their conventional beliefs. They are mostly comfortable in life. They do not want change unless it involves more wealth and social status for themselves.
People like that cannot comprehend what Bernie's movement is about. It scares them.
Additional edit: I guess I'm describing the worldview of the neoliberal rank-and-file. These folks think of themselves as liberal, but they actually have a conservative mindset (lowercase "c", meaning they want to preserve the status quo and hold onto what they've got) but have socially liberal views, aka "identity politics".
Thus, Buttigieg and Klobuchar would be right up their alley.
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
That scary element is going to be increasingly key
I was greatly enthused when I saw Bernie's ad about him being Trump's biggest nightmare.
Being from a working class background and a child of the sixties but having managed to find my way into the professional middle class, I love Bernie's emphasis on revolution and class stuggle. . . but not so much most folks I know. They strive to elevate themselves even more so within the present system. I'm comfortably (for me) retired now but I was never big on ambition. Lotsa folks enthusiastically buy into the bourgeious individualistic ethos unlike most C99ers. And they seem to vote proportionately more so than poorer and working class folks. And I'm afraid they do indeed see Bernie as threatening to their strivings. And the MSM is really going to play into those fears in the coming months in much more subtle and persistent ways than Chris Matthews spewing nonsense about executions in Central park (although that plays into it, too). They are already ratcheting up the idea that Bernie's going to destroy your retirement stock porfolio, etc etc etc. Arggh/acccck. It's exasperating.
Outstanding comment!
These are the people who are disconnected from the lives and challenges facing over half of this country. They got theirs, so why should they care about the people who are 'too lazy to pull themselves up by their own boot straps."
This is the classic neoliberal mindset.It is also what the Democratic party has become which is the party of the white collar professional class. They are educated, or have married well. They live in safe and often gated communities away from the riffraff of ordinary people. Their children go to the best schools, often private schools, and are on the path toward getting into a highly regarded university where they will mingle with others just like themselves. This is America of today...highly stratified and exclusive, favoring the haves over the have nots. Bernie (also Tulsi) is challenging that comfortable stratification and they are terrified.
What these people fail to realize is the oligarchy does not really care about them either and will eventually hollow out their class just as it has our formerly thriving blue collar middle class.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Smug and satisfied
Would add that other than political party affiliation, which they tenaciously cling to, they are indistinguishable from the Republicans in their age, income, and self image.
But... but... I keep being told that Sanders supporters are
motivated by their “privilege” which makes them indifferent to the needs and concerns of the great swath of society. Surely these “bourgeois” white women have GOT to be down with Sanders on that point alone?
I’m glad I read Centurea’s
comment before I commented myself. My initial reaction was do not rely on income! It IS a mindset.
I know these people. They constantly tell me to STFU about upending the status quo!
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
I think being bourgie is a mindset closely correlated to income
And formed in relation to control and means of production. I suppose I have more of a Marxian bent than some folks here although at most I'm a Groucho Marxist (and often grouchy). And most of what I learned about it, I've forgotten.
I think laural touched on
an important issue.
"feel a need for protective buffering between yourself and life's rough and tumble elements. The difference may fall along lines of, e.g., do I value (love) this earth and all its creatures, the future of the human race, the well-being of generations growing up and those in the future as much as I value (love) myself in the here and now? "
The older we get the more we worry about having and keeping enough resources (money) to provide a confortable lifestyle until we die, which we have no idea when that will happen.
I can say it is not a gender issue alone.
Younger people feel they have their whole future ahead of them, and are not as concerned they are making a mistake supporting Sanders.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
Your bits and bytes don't look a day over 39
Hang in there.
Hillary voters
Maybe they are the ones that boosted Klobuchar
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Oh the huwomanity!
What about the OBW who supported Bernie coz MSNBC?
Everybody's probably seen the video of the until recently undecided older bourgeois woman being interviewed by the MSNBC guy in that NH restaurant where she tells him she's now voting for Bernie because of MSNBC's biased and misleading coverage. Krystal features it here in her take this morning:
[video:https://youtu.be/Ra_uS0mg8Wc]
It sounds like
she's waking up (and not in the "woke" way). We need more of that to happen.
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
Does anyone else worry that if not for the Klob,
CIA Pete may have won? I'm not anticipating a CIA or a Klob victory in SC, but coupled with the suspicious caucus fuckery out of Iowa and into Nevada, let's just say I'm grateful that the centrist vote is being split. (Same argument for Warren dropping out: splitting the progressive vote. And no path to victory.)
If Biden doesn't win in SC or win, place or show in Nevada
. . . I think it's pretty doubtful that he'll have the money to continue but he'll probably slog it out through Super Tuesday. I'm really amazed by this development.
I doubt that the DNC powerbrokers will let Warren drop out. And she was really slimy taking shots at Bernie and everyone else for that matter during her concession speech last night. I have a feeling her "progressive" support will turn more so to candidates other than Bernie if she drops out. I will be shocked if she under any circumstance endorses Bernie.
Right now it's shaping up into a four person race between Bernie, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and the dreaded Bloomberg.
Butt, butt
Bloomie is not on the ballot.
Oh, noes!
Bloomberg will be on ballots on Super Tuesday
I'm not sure if in every state . . .
Will Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters migrate over to him? Or will they remain loyal?
Why hasn't Obama made any objection to Bloomberg making it look like Obama is endorsing him in his ads? I mean if Trump so much as uses some rock song, that artist makes a big stink right away.
If O objects, that removes a roadblock
to his Stop Bernie At All Costs movement, and may mean he will have to step in himself - and find out just how much his legacy has become tarnished.
I think he'd rather not do that, but rely on surrogates as long as possible.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Obama seems to hate Bernie more than he values Joe's friendship
If anybody sees Obama objecting to those Bloomberg ads, please post here.
I suspect
Obama was behind Bloomberg jumping in the race because of how bad Biden was doing.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
I figure it was more Hillary and Clintons Inc.
... pushing Bloomberg than Obama. But with Biden looking like he's on the verge of political insolvency, maybe birds of a feather are flocking together.
It's all coming down to whether Bernie and we can mount a challenge to the billionaires. We sure as hall have to try coz I don't see it getting any easier anytime in any of our lifetimes up the road.
who can push Bloomberg?
after all, he's what, the 9th or so wealthiest person in the world, and totally in a different class from the Clintons or Obama. I can see him being sweet-talked a bit, but it looks to me that Bloomberg is going to do what Bloomberg feels is best for Bloomberg, and the concerns of what he sees as the proletarian rabble (that is, those at the level of the Clintons) are not going to be of much concern to him, other than where they run parallel to his desires.
Maybe but who's missing from this photo?
I've read that Bloomberg and Clintons Inc. have long been tight. I don't really know that much about how Bloomberg and Obama go back (aside from Bloombergs new commercial not being challenged by Obama).
Who?
Centrists support Bloomberg cuz he has the money to beat Trump which is the most important issue for many people this election. Policies? Nah don't need to focus on them cuz we got to get Trump out of office.
As to his long history of being a republican and is just using the party to run as a dem:
Well alrighty then. But don't look at it as Mike just doing whatever it takes to further his $$$$ gigs. For gawd's sake his stop and frisk and now his history for why he supported it should be enough to say No Thanks! But.
Yeah just overlook how dems have 'let' him sit on their many committees. He's not a democrat.
Can the bar get any lower for anti Trumpers?
Purity. Drink!
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
Mike didn't need
to be sweet-talked. Traditionally, once you reach a certain office, like Mayor of NYC, Gov of CA or NY, a US Senator, or Mayor of South Bend, you naturally begin to think about becoming President.
Hammer meet nail!
I think Obama knows that his legacy is tarnished, but does not care as long as his sycophants still believe that he was "the greatest President evah" and he continues to ride the post Presidential gravy train.
Obama's problem with Bernie is that Bernie's success amplifies Obama's failure.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
I have been hearing that Warren
has been losing staff recently and that her campaign is bleeding massive amounts of money. How a campaign allocates its resources is a good indicator of how they will fare in the long term. It seems as though Warren was not that fiscally conservative when it came to campaign spending. With her very poor showing in a neighboring state, I am willing to bet her money sources will dry up soon.
Warren was always destined to have to fight an uphill battle for the nomination because the bulk of her support came from a very narrow slice of the electorate, mostly white, upper class and highly educated people. That group may provide financing, but they cannot provide enough votes to win in the general.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
She has a unionized
staff (like Bernie), good pay and perks, and it's 1000 strong, so one of the largest paid campaign organizations.
Her funding is also from small donations, as she made a point months ago of refusing large campaign contributions.
I think she and Biden are done right now. Both could spare everyone further unnecessary embarrassment by dropping out after SC, but it's possible Biden might pony soldier on thru SupTues.
In a word
yes. There is lots of evidence that the security establishement interfered unsuccessfully in the last Presidential election. Klobuchar is CIA friendly, but she is not CIA. Buttigieg, if you think about it, is less qualified to be President than Sarah Palin. He was a mediocre (at best) mayor of a small midwestern city. So why is he now taken seriously? Why did Obama support him so early? Is there any real boundary between McKinsey and Co. and the CIA? If Buttigieg is President, we will be governed by the security establishment, not just governed by someone friendly with the security establishment, but someone who is part of the security establishment.
Forgive my cynicism here
But I'm having a difficult time believing any of those results.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Anything in the exit poll demographics strike you as very off?
Or are you just questioning the vote tabulation determining the final results?
I think Bernie's team is really good this time around. Chuck Rocha seems to know what he's doing.
As if we don't all have enough information overload already, here's his twitter: https://twitter.com/ChuckRocha
Here he is talking about the road ahead this morning:
If Buttigieg
can't make second place in either Nevada or South Carolina, we can then stop worrying about him. If he does in either one, then we should start getting concerned.
If Biden can't get second place in either, his campaign is finished. He may stick it out through SuperTuesday, but it won't matter.
If Biden drops out and Warren drops out after SuperTuesday (or before), I'm hoping Buttigieg, Kobuchar, and Bloomberg will all stay in to split the establishment/centrist/rightist vote. Otherwise, Bernie's chances are in trouble.
It's gonna come down to who drops out when
For now, it's certainly better the more centrist candidates stay in.
I have a feeling that the bunch of them will cut deals with the money man right after Super Tuesday.
Then it will be a battle between Bloomberg and Bernie.
But I'm also pretty sure that it's unwise to ever underestimate the narcissism and hubris of any politician. So maybe this one or that one or even a few will stay in.
Or maybe DNCers with clout will try to keep the field large to mitigate against Bernie having the majority of delegates going into the convention. Maybe they are afraid he could actually take on Bloomberg one on one.
I really don't know how it's going to pan out.
Actually, I think that is the plan
The DNC wants the field as dilute as possible.
Many of us, myself included, keep looking at who can do best against Trump (hint: it is Bernie by all accounts), but that is not what is important to the DNC and the money people. They really do not care if they beat Trump. The only thing about Trump they really dislike is his style, not his agenda. But they care far more about beating Bernie and his agenda. They have far more in common with Trump than Bernie.
Sadly it is already beginning to look like it will go to a brokered convention. If that happens, no one will really know what the outcome will be except it will not be Bernie or his agenda.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
I'm not so sure about that.
I don't think they even dislike his style. It gives them something to focus attention on instead of the things that matter to us small people.
It’s like stage magic. Stage magic relies on misdirection
— getting the person watching to focus involuntarily on the magician’s patter and sweeping, irrelevant gestures rather than the subtle, almost imperceptible motions that make the tricks work.
People on all sides, with all kinds of things to hide, find Trump’s gyrations useful as hooks for misdirection.
I recently seen a film clip
of Mussolini giving a speech and couldn't help but notice the facial expressions, body gyrations, and hand gestures were identical to Trump's.
Even the tyrants political and social policies are eerily similar.
I was just stunned.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
Things that matter to us small people...
Yeah. Like staying alive.
I guess that's not important to psychopaths.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
They're not worried. They're prepared.
You're right, but
they're still psychopaths.
Allow me to demonstrate.
One can live in a luxurious bunker and rule over a devastated landscape littered with corpses, with only about 1/2 billion living people left to lord it over.
Or one could live on an eminently habitable, resource-rich, beautiful planet where you can go outside without a fucking gas mask, populated by many thriving civilizations and many billions of people whom you can lord it over. And with the right marketing--not at all hard to create--you can even get those billions to be *grateful* to you for running things. Because you saved them from climate change and pioneered the new energy era, like a good, innovative entrepreneur.
And why do you choose the former over the latter?
Because some of you, those who make money primarily off weapons, petroleum, methane and coal, are unwilling to abandon those extremely lucrative ventures, though the weaponsmakers could easily find another pretext for selling their products, and even the petroleum, methane and coal barons would be *running* the new energy era, being well-positioned for that on top of their particular industry with personal wealth in the multi-billions.
Either they fundamentally misunderstand the capitalist system they inhabit or they are spoiled children refusing to put down a toy--and throwing a temper tantrum because they were asked to do so. Under these circumstances, that sort of infantile behavior borders on lunacy.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Conventions have become
dull affairs since '68 and '72. I might want to be highly entertained by a brokered Dem convention for a refreshing change. Maybe sans the police riot against demonstrators in the streets outside.
But that would be in the scenario where Bernie goes in with a strong plurality lead, say 300-400 delegates over the 2d place person, probably Bloomie.
No way the convention could steal one for the backroom billionaire -- then there would be rioting in the streets, and the nomination wouldn't be worth a plugged nickel. Even the white bread dullard careerist centrists at Morning Joe would wake up and notice the theft. Chris Matthews of course would approve.
I don't trust the results. I think the early results showing
Bernie ahead by around 6% were consistent with both the preliminary polls and the exits polls. For that lead to be diminished gradually throughout the night required #MayorCheat to do better or on par with Bernie for all of the remaining returns, in defiance of the polls. In other words, the early release of returns just happened to encompass exactly the areas where returns matched the polls. But for the remainder of the night the polls were wrong by about 5%.
The pattern looks as if the first release of returns (the ones that matched the polls) were used to measure Bernie's lead and to calculate the required cheat factor which could be applied gradually to the remaining returns to inconspicuously overcome it.
This was the same pattern I saw with Joe Lieberman vs. Ned Lamont in CT. The early returns showed Ned Lamont substantially ahead. Then, for the rest of the returns Joe Gradually closed the gap.
Imagine if I challenged you to flip a spoonful of chocolate pudding at New Hampshire map, and I directed you to splatter some towns whose vote average decisively favors Bernie leaving all unsplattered towns whose average favors #MayorCheat. Think you could do it? Probably not. That's what happened last night.
I'll be watching for this pattern of Bernie having a clear lead in early returns which is slowly whittled away throughout the evening. It's not an organic pattern. I think Bernie was screwed last night with the goal of making sure #MayorCheat receives the same number of delegates as Bernie. I think we are going to see a pattern of subtle cheating designed to keep Bernie under the 50% delegate mark.
^ This right here ^
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
I've been thinking the same thing...
Rather than one big cheating event they'll do it in small subtle increments. Then come the convention if Bernie is still winning but under the 50% threshold, they'll trot out the "who is the most electable" trope and then award the nomination to a centrist because communism/socialism.
is there an algorithm for the needed cheat factor?
Couldn't that one be hacked to cheat the cheat producing programmers?
https://www.euronews.com/live
It is called fraction magic.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ezmpqwVEnM]
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
OMG, makes me want to live in the stone ages
and vote by carving my choice into stone tablets. Thank you, gulfgal.
https://www.euronews.com/live
Wow. Great video. Things are even easier to rig than I realized.
calculate the required cheat factor
the subtleties of machinations
seem to be lost on the pundits
eyes wide shut
If dim memory serves,
prior to the 2000 election theft, exit polls were heavily relied upon by the MSM and reported on extensively as the vote count trickled in.
Then it was decided in that 2000 Long Count, that they weren't necessarily all that reliable. I think that was because they showed Al Gore winning the presidency.
It's a good check against vote counting shenanigans, especially in cases where the reported actual count from various areas consistently favors one candidate against the exit polling.
This is a very good point
and actually likelier than NHK's hypothesis that it was a reaction to the Bernie voters booing at Pete. Although his larger point stands: there is no percentage in booing at Pete.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
They're not exclusive.
A bungled campaign stunt doesn't mean the weren't also shaving votes from Bernie.
Bernie can only do so much about the vote rigging, but what he CAN control is his own campaign making unforced errors that cost him votes. And however accurate or not the final official vote tally, the exit poll numbers show clearly that undecideds broke AGAINST Bernie in the final days.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Mostly agree.
Bernie's camp needs to use a softer, cleverer touch, something which might get well rubbed but which is kinda funny. Like Clinton's 1992 use of the guy in the chicken suit to hang out at Poppy Bush's campaign appearances to call out his refusal to debate (iirc). Or the many delightful Dick Tuck stunts against Nixon in '60 and '62. Hilarious.
Chicken George...
LOL that brings back memories.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Like I said, your larger point stands
regardless of whether the decrease in votes was organic or pre-fab.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
I agree
and the media tried to do everything it could to erase Bernie's win last night. Check out this graphic.
And this was the Reuters tweet on the election:'
The Slimes:
More plugs for Mike.
Again for those rich people in the back. The current system is not working for millions of us and just wanting to beat Trump and replace him with another ex republican and oligarch is not going to change that for us. It must be really nice to not have to worry about $$$$ if you have it and it is lower than low to fight against those of us who are living on the edge.
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
This will not work
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
stumbled across this
no surprise here
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/480606-us-ideological-civil-war/
Late deciding voters...
went overwhelmingly for Pete.
Part of that is obviously an Iowa and media bump, but I suspect part of that may have been an own goal scored when Sanders supporters showed up and booed at Buttigieg's last big rally.
Sanders supporters thought it was funny, but videos like that play into the Bernie Bro narrative that Berners are like thuggish Trumpers. It's a bad look, and those optics likely turned off a lot of late undecideds already anxious about the primary's increasingly negative tone.
We need to stay positive, and stunts like trolling opponents' events only hurt us in the end.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Negative tone
Yea, I've been getting increasingly worried about that. I understand how hard it is not to react with such emotions after the experience of Iowa and the intenifying media assault against Bernie. And I understand that booing is small change compared to the shit TPTB are doing to Bernie and us and the world. But we need to consider how certain displays of negativity play into the media narrative against Bernie. I think it's necessary but problematic for Bernie to keep pushing class struggle and revolution and democratic socialism. Here's a pretty good article I just read in the Atlantic about how Bernie's ideological foundation is just bound to turn off many older middle class folks. The trick is to somehow push it forward without all the angst and negativity towards other candidates whose voters will turn to Bloomberg if just the right approach to them isn't figured out. The emphasis on getting folks to vote for the first time or the first time in years is fine especially for the general election but in terms of primaries, where only 20% of voters go to the polls, you can't ignore and/or piss off folks who are prime voters who aren't in our camp, whose votes Bernie needs to move forward as other candidates fail.
My big concern...
is that the Bernie campaign organized this. The whole thing looked way too coordinated for comfort.
I saw Jeff Weaver in an interview somewhere (maybe w/Krystal?) say they've got tricks in store for Buttigieg in Nevada. If these tricks are anything like the NH Pete rally trolling, somebody needs to slap Weaver upside the head with the exit poll data toot suite.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
I dunno if the boos were spontaneous or planned
Pete started talking shit about Bernie and folks booed.
I wish they hadn't coz it plays into the bernie bro mob bullying trope.
Some might argue, however, that the booing gives indication that Berners won't accept another centrist candidate hoisted upon us.
Maybe we need to think more about them, not just us.
I have no idea what percentage of undecided voters saw or were aware of the booing incident.
Other factors could have also pushed undecideds towards Buttigieg and Klobuchar, too. The media was certainly relentlessly vicious against Bernie. And boosting those two like crazy. And unlike C99ers and other social media folks (I think there were only 10% of the folks in that exit poll who indicated they read twitter), undecided voters rely on TV news, TV commercials and newspapers to inform them. Again, in whatever event, we shouldn't underestimate the power of MSM.
It's not just about the boos...
its about the campaign organizing the outing in the first place. Stupid and counterproductive.
Think about it: you're an undecided, maybe first time voter who simply wants to hear what Pete has to say. So you go to the event and up in the rafters a crowd of Bernie supporters is shouting down Pete standing there all alone on the stage.
How intimidated might that voter feel? Who looks like the underdog to the voter? What sort of sympathy is generated for THE most unsympathetic candidate in the race?
So the voter goes home and tells everyone about what jerks the Bernie people were to Pete, maybe then turns on Chris Matthews and gets her fears of mob rule validated, and then (and this is the worst bit) goes on Twitter to see the incident reposted OVER and OVER by amped up Bernie supporters THEMSELVES.
Heck, even if the voter did NOT attend the rally. Just seeing that booing vid alone could be enough to flip her vote.
A cringeworthy moment that didn't need to happen and probably cost Bernie with undecideds.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
You’re operating under a misapprehension.
The event where Sanders (and evening some Warren) supporters bood Pete was not a Pete rally. It was an event where ALL the candidates spoke in sequence and ALL of them rallied their supporters to it. It’s held every New Hampshire primary season. So Bernie’s team did NOT arrange for his supporters to crash a Pete rally.
Good to know that, thanks TB
That explains the Bernie placards many were waving. It was a mixed crowd of supporters and fair game.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
'Fair game'
You are really missing the point here.
Whatever permission you think is gained for this behavior by the nature of the event is far outweighed by the reaction to it.
There is NO scenario where booing primary opponents in a open candidate forum helps Bernie with undecideds.
None.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Dunno about that ,NHK
If I were an undecided sitting there hearing a candidate dissing another and heard NO responce, I would tend to think the diss was warranted.
But hearing blowback, or booing, would make me think the diss was an un warranted attack.
But thats just me.
YMMV
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
The exit polls...
speak for themselves. The little tantrum and its promotion clearly didn't help.
Seriously, if Pete fucking Buttigieg is winning over late breaking undecideds, then the Bernie campaign and its supporters need to look hard into the mirror and ask themselves why.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Thanks for the clarification,
but it doesn't change the underlying point.
Indeed, if this was a multi-candidate forum, that's even MORE reason for Bernie supporters to behave themselves.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Election is about class warfare
You are spot on
The most obvious was when Joe kept flailing the elite class started getting nervous and they started asking lots of rich people to jump in and save the election from Bernie and pseudo progressive Warren. MSDNC and the Clinton News Netwrecks kept having people on to talk about how bad their agendas were. For them. They want the stealing from the working class and poor class to continue unabated.
If Obama ever does jump in and starts talking against Bernie then Bernie should put out ads about how Obama oversaw the biggest wealth transfer in history and how wealth inequality has gone to the levels not seen since the Great Depression and how the Great Recession never ended for the working class. BFD that the stock market is doing great right now. It wouldn't be if the feds weren't pouring trillions into it to keep it propped up. Just more stealing from the lower classes.
As for the ACA. 20 million people were able to get health insurance. Great for them, not so great for the other millions that were left off. And it did nothing to stop the insurance companies from gouging people. 500,000 medical bankruptcies a year. 1.5 million kids homeless. Homelessness in general continuing to rise and young people priced out of the housing market because the elite class are still holding houses off the market.
Class warfare indeed.
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
I talked to a couple of women at a church breakfast yesterday
and they didn’t know much about U.S. politics but found Trump grating and were nostalgic for Obama, his suave persona, smoother delivery, and better optics.
I realized once again what a piss-poor job German media do at conveying accurately what’s really happening in North America (let alone Hawaii) and what’s going through the minds of Americans outside the Atlanticist elite.
Just another tile in the mosaic of reasons I’ve turned against German public broadcasting in recent years and now resent the $250 per year tax (soon to increase by 10 percent) all households are forced to pay to support it.
Bourgeois women over 50
won't vote Sanders because they were Hillary voters last time.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
does bourgeois
rhyme with gorgeous?
BOOR-zhwah
is how I say it.
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