FWIW, Betting Odds On Democratic Presidential Candidate Have COMPLETELY Changed (EDITED)
While still casting about on this sea of limbo still frustrated, angry, and contemptuous I was sent this article by my DSA friend. We've been having a conversation about whether the caucus disaster was a result of mendacious collusion or incompetence and what ramifications it would have on the contest ahead. I'm of the feeling that not only are we being cheated again and that the evidence this time is right there in front of us in real time, but also how unsurprising it is that hardly anybody in the MSM wants to deal with all this if not straight-up corruption then highly suspect machinations head on.
And there in the comments of the Reddit thread from where I read it was this amazing result of the caucus at this present moment in the form of betting averages.
Real Clear Politics betting odds.
Here's what's to be gleaned:
Just less than a month ago Biden was in a clear first place position, with a 10 point lead over Bernie, who was at 27%. Behind them, all under 15%, were Warren at 14, Buttigieg 12, Bloomberg 10.
But today, Bernie is sitting at 41%, which is an almost 20pt lead over Biden. After the Iowa caucus, even absurdly after two days still without the full numbers, Biden's prospects to bettors have almost completely tanked.
That's an almost 30pt reversal, in less than a month.
Biden's now at 22. Just behind him is Bloomberg at 18, and #MayoCheat at 14. So that means the CIA Rodent has managed only a two point boost from the pockets of those laying dough on the table.
(EDIT: From a high of 52 last October, soaring way above Bernie by 33pts, Biden's now almost 20pts behind.
I had erroneously mistook this figure as being Biden's number, when it was actually Warren's! So it was Warren who had the 33pt lead on Biden. Where was Bernie then? Languishing way down at 6pts, down to Warren by 47pts. Now, that's perhaps the most staggering of all! Warren's fall, from a high of 53 to 8 is an equally amazing takeaway. Her waffling then duplicity completely drained all of her momentum as the frontrunner in this betting, in which her lead was unbroken from 8/15-11/22. But back to Bernie and Biden for a moment. It looks like Biden's lead was at its largest also in October, when he was 15pts ahead (which he was also in August).
So it turns out it that Bernie's surge is even more mind-blowing when comparing it to Warren. She was ahead by 47 but now is now -33. Holy fucking shit: that's an 80pt turnaround!)
January 23rd appears to be the last time Biden was ahead, when he was up by 3. The very next day they were tied, and the day after Bernie took his first lead by 3 which was never relinquished.
Since the caucus Bernie has been up +6, +8, and now +18.5.
Basically, Bernie's surge has been fucking spectacular.
I don't know if there's any similar figures for betting odds in previous elections and how they compare to what actually did wind up happening but this is a bit of good, tangible evidence that when push comes to shove in actually laying down money on something the good bet is on Bernie to win this thing.
Comments
People don't like to lose there money
and as the odds makers have proven time and again in sports books across the world, they analyze every little factor possible to achieve maximum accuracy.
The betting houses don't want to lose their own money that's on the line as well so I would put the accuracy of them over the oh so tainted polls conducted by the MSM.
The MSM loses nothing, and in fact can actually gain additional eyes by being wrong.
The betting houses? Not so much.
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
Those putting their money where their mouth is like Bernie,
Big Time.
Also just want to point out, because it can never be stressed enough, that corporate MSM is completely selective in what they choose to report on and how they parse a story. Everybody should remember that and remind those not inclined to think along these lines.
I heard some reporting on NPR these past couple of days that illustrated for me again why I despise their hallmarks of forced pleasantness, corporate guffawing, smug haughtiness and superior (neo)Liberal worldviews, of which ironically is girded by the same lies of American Exceptionalism and Praise of the Rich that the RW embraces, though perhaps not quite as dangerous. But what I really despise most is their lack of backbone in avoiding the hard questions, especially when the elephant is in the room - right there even in the stuff that they are reporting. Just takes making a natural follow-up question. And that's where they lose legitimacy to me.
The reasons we hate the corporate news so much, including NPR, is the narrow framework from which they constrain discussion, and the selective omission used to cover for the status quo to which they belong.
The idea of Fake News has been so convoluted by RW zombie Drumpf dead-enders as a blanket with which to cover their Dear Leader. And on the other side o such a pathetic degree the Neolibs are all in on defending the MSM as some kind of noble sentinels of the Fourth Estate.
As my bumpersticker starkly reminds in two words, "They're Lying."
"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:
THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"
- Kurt Vonnegut
@Mark from Queens Thank you Mark for
Thank you Mark for articulating so wonderfully my own reasons for abhorrence of NPR; in fact they are my Number One Most Wanted when it comes to despising the media, right ahead of NYT and WaPo-- the smug smarminess, the 'up-speak,' the corporate buzzwords, right? (That's the latest: inserting 'right?' after every five words), the revolving-door cast of 'experts' from the various corporate think-tanks and same-old warmongers, the total wall they enclose themselves in-- and mistake that for the world. "Today's show: Being Poor in America. Our guests include blah blah from the Brookings Institute, blah blah blah from the Center for Blah Blah, etc, and I am sitting in my truck screaming ASK SOME FUCKING POOR PEOPLE YOU EEJITS!!! That notion (asking, say, poor people what it's like to be poor when doing a show on the poor) just seems NEVER to have occurred to them. But their biggest sin in my books is the pompously-infuriating virtue signaling: that they, and they alone, are at the pinnacle of the Delphic Mountain, possessing all truth and knowledge-- when in fact, with their sly and subtle censorship by omission (there's no such place as Palestine; no such candidate as Bernie Sanders, etc) they are more dangerous than Fox.
Semper ubi sub ubi
DNC selectively refusing to release reported county totals
that were turned in early yesterday. Of course, they are strong Bernie counties:
We should not be surprised since (among other things):
Didn't Tulsi get thrown of the DNC when she decided to support Bernie in 2016?
Yep...but
Tulsi got thrown out because she said that they were helping Hillary get elected and trying to keep Bernie from winning. This is when she became person non grata for many people. How dare she point out the rigging?
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Baa?
Heh. Stopped writing for a lunch break before posting my last, and unbeknownst to me you'd published this (my bold):
Well stated and completely on target.
Those wolves over there, I'm not so worried about. It's the wolves costumed as sheep among our flock of innocents that bring out the cold sweat.
Aid and abet
(My bold.)
The fact that they are deliberately diluting and disarming any real and effective opposition to the rising fascism of the US Republican Party means to me that – if anything – they are even more dangerous than the obvious right-wing media.
Imagine, if you will, a situation somewhat similar to 1920s and 1930s Germany and the rise of fascism then. We have the advantage of hindsight now in regard to Nazi Germany. Could the Germans have stopped the NSDAP? Some writers working at that time say, "Yes." Sebastian Haffner, who was living through it and writing in the 1930s, said yes. With a mild press, confident in the status quo, the German press didn't have the history lesson that our press has ... the one they choose to ignore. It would have been up to the German people, but they didn't have that hindsight either. A few saw it coming, but even many of those chose to remain silent. Haffner admits to being one ... until it was too late.
Our press lambasts Trump, to be sure, but refuses to look at the core reasons he has support. They seem especially unable to gaze into a mirror and see that it is they who are major contributors in the factors enabling Trump and the rise of fascism.
And now the press is complicit in this current and obvious injury to democracy in the United States. Don't think for a second that those on the political right don't see right through this. I'm not necessarily speaking of political professionals – the average Joe and Jane Bleaux see it as well. Trump doesn't even need to go to Twitter, crying "See, I told you it was fake news!" The corruption is plainly obvious and reinforces Trump's attacks on the American Press.
Well said
The press complains how mean Trump is being to them, but not one of them has been thrown into gitmo of the U.K. and not one of them have spoken out about how Assange is being treated. Don't they understand that if he is extradited here it will have a massive effect on their reporting?
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Sitting ducks
It may have more than just "...a massive effect on their reporting." As in, it's hard to be a journalist when your ass is sitting in jail.
Right now, a large number of Americans would back Trump if he started jailing journalists. I even know some of them. Of course, Trump wouldn't refer to them as journalists. Rather, they'd be traitors, spies, etc. At that point, we the people can't do much to help them – as they themselves refuse to refer to one of the greatest journalists (Assange) as such. The mold is set in place and they did it to themselves. Sadly, the most intrepid among them will go down first. We're already watching it happen – there is no denying it.
Finding effective allies is not going to be easy for them. It didn't have to be this way, but it appears that's the path they're on.
Most of the "journos" here are stooges
Think Acosta, Lemon, Cuomo, Madcow, Hayes, Brzezinsky, et alii. What a shitshow of written defecatory material, more suitably projected from their anus prose. Perhaps they should "moon" the audience while simultaneously expelling their fecal messaging. Then there would be no doubt about the worth of their offerings.
This country has been a corporate fascist
state for a few decades now. Why is it that every time someone calls a human biped a "rodent," I start laughing? It's an insult to the actual critters. Rec'd!!
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
This country has been a corporate fascist
state for a few decades now. Why is it that every time someone calls a human biped a "rodent," I start laughing? It's an insult to the actual critters. Rec'd!!
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
Apology for double posting. Glitch alert!
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
I liked your second post better than the first
Removing tongue from cheek!
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Betting Odds
I know zero about this or any other betting thingy so just let me say, in response to Bernie's surge, "WOW!."
NYCVG
I Have Always Believed That Bernie Would Win the Nomination
However, I was a bit surprised to see the betting odds on RC Politics.
The biggest outcome of the Iowa Caucuses was this, even as complete results aren't in.
A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
This ought to remind most folks
...of what Russian election meddling did to Hillary's campaign.
Perhaps the Russians bought more Facebook ads to ruin Biden's campaign.
Why aren't the Intelligence Agencies speaking out this time?
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Yeah. I read that a 12 year old Russian girl paid the equivalent
of $47 for an ad asking if anyone found her lost cat. I am pretty sure that is what did Joe in. Pretty much the same as what blew up Hillary's campaign in 2016.
"Lost cat" was a codeword
That induced pre-programmed voters to stay home.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Sheila Jackson is
Sigh!
Edited name
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
S. Jackson Lee should ask for investigation of the app
from a REAL cybersecurity source--Crowdstrike. I am sure that Alperovich will render the perfectly unbiased assessment as to who did the dirty deed of mucking up the Iowa Caucus. But when NH goes to Bernie, whom will she, boy lover that she is, blame for the degradation of our electoral system? Surely not the Dems, saintly in every way.
The FBI really, really needs to call in CrowdStrike.
They have what it takes to solve an app problem.
I'm looking at you, Fancy Bear.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Well, you don't step in to protect your stooge
from taking a fall.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Question for computer geeks
In Caitlin Johnstone's article this morning she reported:
According to an Iowa precinct chair, the problems using the app (developed by the aptly named Shadow, Inc) included literally switching the numbers entered into it on the final step of reporting results.
“A precinct chair in Iowa said the app got stuck on the last step when reporting results,” CNN reports. “It was uploading a picture of the precinct’s results. The chair said they were finally able to upload, so they took a screenshot. The app then showed different numbers than what they had submitted as captured in their screenshot.”
Was that the only problem with app, that it flipped votes? I mean, voting machines are supposed to count votes but we've had a lot of flipping since Diebold got into the business. Now we have an app which is supposed to count votes but flips votes.
I can think of a couple of reasons why the folks at headquarters stopped answering their phones and didn't announce their results and why Buttigieg was so sure of victory. Mayor Pete knew the fix was in, but the folks at headquarters were working on a cover story when the Sanders people began howling.
Have we seen any investigation about this software itself? Has any independent analyst checked it out? Have we had any statements from the Iowa SDP about how the software failed? Was it just flipping votes or something else.
Just wondering.
Warren and Klobuchar were complaining too
Apparently Sneaky Pete's app was shaving points off everybody else.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
No matter what the elites say
they know they can't have Amy as their presidential nominee. She's been polling so abysmally that the fix would be too obvious even for them. So it's fine if her numbers get shaved a little. She's headed for some Cabinet position--assuming they can/want to actually oust Trump.
As for Warren, you don't really think they wanted her as a nominee? She was put there to destroy Bernie and his movement if possible, to slow him if not. If doing what her masters put her there to do destroys her reputation and her career, they won't shed any tears. Equally, if she gets her numbers hurt by their machinations.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
This is why
Bernie's campaign had their own "counters." They have actual vote totals, called the dnc on it, and, SUDDENLY! we have "quality control" issues. The app was ALWAYS supposed to change the votes. The app was ALWAYS supposed to cheat Bernie and bump Mayo Cheat. This is called RIGGING. They are trying to rig the election and this is only the BEGINNING!
Good video to watch.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d1PWr1_Ygw&feature=youtu.be]
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
You are spot on. That was it's job. It's why they created this
black box voting ap. Because they knew from experience that it is easier to rig the votes if they pass through some invisible proprietary hocus pocus software. Mixing up votes, flipping votes, doing math incorrectly is shit a first semester programmer wouldn't screw up. It was deliberate. And the only reason it has become an issue is because they got caught.
Feature, not bug
Exactly. The software worked as designed.
What didn't work as planned was that various folks expected tomfoolery and happened to have their cell phone cameras at the ready.
DNC fix: Check your cell phones at the door when counting primary ballots. (There are probably good odds in Vegas for this actually being implemented...)
Precisely, entrepreneur.
I'm just happy Bernie had his own app along with people recording the ballots. If the app had worked just fine, how were they going to explain the discrepancies when the ballots are compared to the actuals. Curious how they thought they'd get away with it, then again - it looks like they did it in 2016, too. Bernie won Iowa in 2016 but they managed to swing it to her heinous.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Hopefully all of the attention paid to the paper trail...
... will help avoid the "loss" of paper records as was claimed after the 2016 counts.
Oh, like those servers in TN back in 2004?
Those motherfuckers.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Bought Bernie at 9c
although I still feel the same way about these political market thingy betting sites now as then.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Well the obvious reason why Biden has tanked
was because Trump asked Ukraine to investigate him. /s but ByeDone was never Trumps political opponent. Unless we have coronations in this country..well Hillary expected one didn't she?
But I'd love to know who told Warren it would be a good idea to stab Bernie in the back and so publicly? And just what she thought afterwards when she saw her numbers tanking?
But who is really to blame for the Iowa debacle! The Russians of course.
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
I'm sure that Biden's early-stage dementia
has absolutely nothing to do with it.
"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama
Of course not
Haven't you heard? Every dang thing that happens here is because of Russia. Oh wait you might mean that ByeDone's dementia was caused by Russia?
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
JoJo could probably not program his cell phone directory
Well...
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
well, well, well...lookey here: Natey Boy now says Bernie's
the guy.
Can't stand how this guy's still got all this gravitas with the Neoliberal media after completely and utterly blowing the 2016 primary. He's totally in the employ of the establishment for the express purpose of using whatever credibility he had from 2008 to construct narratives for the Democratic Party.
For an absolutely kick-ass comeuppance see the Chapo boys showing him up to be the fraud that he is.
"Our fictional pundit predicted more correct primary results than Nate Silver did"
"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:
THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"
- Kurt Vonnegut
Great comment at Reddit about the situation of the race
"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:
THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"
- Kurt Vonnegut