The horse race

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Iowa is still in play, but Bernie is placed well and has the momentum.
All he has to do is win by a single percent.

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N.H. is pretty much over. Bernie has this one.

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Anyone planning of throwing fictional chairs while being sexist?
It's been a long time since the last poll, but Bernie is close.
If he can sweep the first three then S.C. won't really matter.

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Bernie will lose this state, but by how much?

Then comes Super Tuesday, with the two largest states in the nation.

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The question here is how large of Sanders victory in Cali?

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Even the smallest of victories here would wrap up the race, and avoid a brokered convention.

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Shahryar's picture

Texas:

Even the smallest of victories here would wrap up the race, and avoid a brokered convention.

I believe something weird will happen once Bernie starts winning states. How weird? Well, what would be the weirdest? Mayo Pete and Klobuchar drop out and endorse Biden? They drop out and Biden drops out too and they all endorse Hillary?

Now that CNN has set the precedent I can see Bernie being accused of something ridiculous and then being asked "why did you do that?" But I mean something really terrible.

In short, Bernie will not lock up the nomination until delegates actually vote. There will be fights about delegates. Rules will materialize out of nowhere that favor "anybody but Bernie".

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32 users have voted.
boriscleto's picture

@Shahryar "He's never taken a penny of special interest money". Because he's his own special interest.

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20 users have voted.

" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "

snoopydawg's picture

@boriscleto

but he filled his campaign with lobbyists from them. Just because you're rich doesn't mean that you won't do favors for your BFFs. But if delegates align behind Bloomberg then it will just show people that elections can be bought. But then we knew that didn't we?

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21 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

@Shahryar
The DNC are pleased to have it their damn way. Nothing else.
We shall see the tediums of their efforts to control the party results.
Quite obvious the establishment dems have no need for progressives
like Bernie and Tulsi.
But wtf, over. If the peeps want progressive change
like livable healthcare, kinder retirement options
and fewer wars, the mold makers no longer matter.

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18 users have voted.

May we be united and strong -- laurel

@Shahryar

I believe something weird will happen once Bernie starts winning states. How weird? Well, what would be the weirdest?

There is always rigging the vote, but I don't want to go there.

Now that CNN has set the precedent I can see Bernie being accused of something ridiculous and then being asked "why did you do that?" But I mean something really terrible.

Manchurian Candidate. 2nd family. Not a real jew.
It's boggles the mind what they'll invent.

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18 users have voted.

@gjohnsit
A dozen times a day the MSM will sound off about "Sanders honeymooned in the Soviet Union"

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4 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Wally's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

They are already doing the Putin Puppet tripe and worse. He supported the Sandanistas, blah blah blah.

They keep throwing shit at Bernie and he turns it into compost.

And for the first time this morning, Bernie's ahead of Biden in the NBC/WSJ National Poll:

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9 users have voted.
OzoneTom's picture

@Shahryar
Both Iowa and Nevada are caucus states and New Hampshire seems a likely victory. Solid wins in the caucus states could essentially swing the election if the result is a perception that he could go all the way.

The young voter turnout in caucuses could totally swing the election before Super Tuesday.

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21 users have voted.

@Shahryar as having soft support mainly, so their dropping out and endorsing someone else will have little influence on their supporters. By contrast, if Yang drops out b/f SuperTues, his strong supporters are likely to carefully consider going with his endorsee. Same for Tulsi, but she's said she's staying in until the end.

People keep bringing up the Hillary Scenario, but her actual support (beyond a few vocal loyalists on Twitter) is small, she has the Two-Time Loser Label, and I suspect the overwhelming strength of the anti-Trump sentiment is going to militate against her with even would-be supporters. Bloomberg, if he shows decently in the SupTues primaries would be a more likely 2d ballot pick. This is apparently his strategy anyway.

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15 users have voted.
Bollox Ref's picture

Who are Buttigieg voters?

A mayor from a small city in Indiana running for the ultimate national office?

Asking for a friend.

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19 users have voted.

Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

Hasn't been a poll in 3 weeks (Fox) and if Bernie runs the table on the first three primaries SC could very well be in play by the end of month.

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22 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

snoopydawg's picture

....

The corporations buy congress members to rig the rules in their favor and against ours. Bezos is breaking so many monopoly laws and he wouldn't be so damned rich if he didn't get away with it. Big oil, pharma and many others get tax breaks and subsidies while mom and pop shops have to sink or swim on their own. Isn't that why there was a little tea party in Boston harbor once? Something about the East Indies giving preferential treatment to whomever they wanted to succeed?

Bernie's right again.

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31 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

@snoopydawg
far be it me to address 'em all here but
key point -- congress bought and paid for
by the billionaire class
executive and justice
brought to you by
goggle it

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14 users have voted.

May we be united and strong -- laurel

@QMS
Suppose Bernie is elected President. Do you think we will see single payer? Bernie can get someone like AOC to introduce it, sure. But Pelosi will crush it. If, Gott Sie Dank', she dies before then, the (R) Senate will kill it. (D)'s take the Senate? Who are the top dogs (and I do mean dogs), Schumer and Durbin. Bill going nowhere.

Durbin is running for re-election, no primary opposition except a write-in candidate who recently failed in his bid for Schaumburg Library Commissioner. I read his candidate statement. He's a wackadoo that can't write a coherent sentence. In the Fall, Durbin will face a Tea Party opponent with a Pence-like fascination with uteri (a woman yet! These Republican women are more fanatic than the men.

This is why I say a Party needs to be built ground up, not top down.

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3 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Lily O Lady's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

“Not me, us!” means.

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9 users have voted.

"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

Wally's picture

An excellent interview with Jim Zogby about possible/probable/ongoing shenanagans:

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17 users have voted.

At the end of the first 4 states:

States Won:

Sanders--->3
Biden------>1

Delegates Won:

Biden------>60
Sanders---->53
Buttigieg--->19
Warren----->18
Others------>6

At the end of SuperTuesday:

States Won:

Biden------>12
Sanders---->8

Delegates Won:

Biden------>636
Sanders---->567
Warren----->215
Buttigieg--->133
Others------>74

A few thought on this:

1) If Sanders does win 3 of the first 4 states, he would undoubtedly gain momentum from that, altering some of the SuperTuesday results--increasing the size of his wins, probably winning some closer states, things like that. If Sanders won Massachusetts and Maine, for example, which he has a pretty good shot at, the state wins would instead be Biden 10, Sanders 10. If Sanders upset in Oklahoma as well, Sanders would have a state advantage at the end of SuperTuesday.

FiveThirtyEight does not account for this "momentum" dynamism.

2) If Warren or Buttigieg decided to call it quits suddenly at this point, they would undoubtedly ask their delegates to go with Biden come the convention, changing the dynamic greatly.

3) If many of the "Other" candidates drop out at this point (Klobuchar, Steyer, Bloomberg, perhaps even Tulsi) those extra 74 delegate could get reassigned in interesting ways.

4) Delegates for Warren and Buttigieg have been cratering over the past few weeks. They both have about half the expected delegate wins they were expected to get a few weeks ago, and this trend shows no sign of reversing. Most of those delegates seem to be fleeing to Biden, but some have migrated to Sanders.

Final Note: If Sanders outperforms in Iowa, that would show some serious weaknesses in FiveThirtyEight's estimates, and it'll be interesting to compare the end of SuperTuesday results with those above to see how accurate they are.

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21 users have voted.
Wally's picture

@apenultimate

We'll see how Warren et al will steer their supporters come the Iowa and Nevada caucuses where they don't get 15% of the vote.

I am afraid they will be instructed to go with Biden. That doesn't mean they all will. It's going to be very chaotic. My guess is that Berners will be portrayed as bullies in trying to attract those unmoored voters.

Later, before or at the convention, the candidates can drop out, asking their name not be placed in nomination, and request their delegates to support this or that candidate. But those delegates still have the freedom to choose to vote for whomever they want. So again, chaos.

This may be exactly what Hillary and/or Bloomberg are banking upon. Bloomberg could choose Hillary as VP. And then resign if he wins.

Yea, so JFC, it sure would be nice if we could unite behind Bernie now rather than . . . never?

I don't think Bernie will consider running 3rd party (or even Tulsi). That's a nice hope in a lot of ways but I'm afraid not very realistic in terms of winning when our window of opportunity to combat climate catastrophe is still open a crack.

Edit/add: Oh and voting Green? Well, if Hawkins wins the nomination, doesn't he support impeachment, at least some anti-Assad forces in Syria, and the Russiagate narrative? I'm willing to be corrected if I'm wrong.

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7 users have voted.
snoopydawg's picture

Here is a list of bundlers who bundle dark money for various campaigns. Read how they are repaid.

“Voters have a right to know who’s trying to influence their vote,” said Jessica Jones Capparell, the league’s policy and legislative affairs senior manager. Bundlers “get ambassadorships, positions on commissions and may buy their way into the next administration.”

During his second term, Obama appointed 31 of his campaign bundlers to ambassadorships, a Center for Public Integrity analysis concluded. They included powerful bankers, business executives and law firm leaders. Clinton’s 2016 campaign bundlers were a veritable parade of influence peddlers and financial elites — billionaire businessman George Soros, financier Donald Sussman and entrepreneur Fred Eychaner included, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

While Trump, unlike Obama and Clinton, has never volunteered information about his bundlers, he has also habitually tapped top donors and fundraisers for plum positions, publicly available campaign finance disclosures indicate.

Take Steve Mnuchin, finance chairman of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, who’s now secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Linda McMahon, the former World Wrestling Entertainment executive and major Trump bankroller, became Small Business Administration administrator. McMahon is now resigning to help lead a pro-Trump super PAC, America First Action, which has already raised more than $39 million since forming in 2017; casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and his wife, Miriam Adelson, have each contributed $5 million so far. (Trump in November awarded Miriam Adelson the nation’s highest civilian honor, the Presidential Medal of Freedom.)

Congress could pass legislation making it more difficult to hide who is influencing their votes, but so far they haven't done it. Gee I wonder why?

Here is an excellent list of reasons why people shouldn't vote for Joe Biden. Too many people are supporting him because they think he's the best chance of beating Trump. Bull, but anyone who thinks that he'd be good for the country are not being honest with his history.

125 reasons not to vote for Biden

On every point there is a working link that gives more detail. I'm tweeting it like mad on Twitter. My Facebook group is just going to ignore that Trump is a symptom as well as a very bad president.

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21 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

@snoopydawg
I'm sure Joe opposes Trump. he's just confused about which Party to run on. He seems a much better fit for the (R) party.

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3 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

OzoneTom's picture

@snoopydawg
In the "Electibility section:
"Dropped out of the 1988 race in disgrace after it was revealed he had lied about his academic record and plagiarized law school papers and campaign speeches including one in which he lied about having coal miner roots."

This reminded me about a Davit Doel video I had seen yesterday which included a nice series of clips showing these and more:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTgPbLkh3F0

There are also clips lying about his education and educational achievements and Doel also includes links to videos all are taken from. Pretty damning stuff.

Don't worry about giving Trump ammunition -- I am certain that his people have these and more...

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2 users have voted.
snoopydawg's picture

I tweeted how Bernie votes with democrats more than Joe Manchin does and that Joe votes with republicans more often than not.

Bernie is running on the DP platform and has promised to abide by the rules. But if he gets screwed again I'm hoping that he runs third party. He has nothing to lose if he does and time is too short to wait for another Bernie type to step up.

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17 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

@snoopydawg If Bernie has a nuclear option it's to talk third party. It's funny, they've already planted that seed, blaming him for HERmajesties loss. Koskids still can't stop themselves. While it's a great insult, it's also something they fear.

I have some hope. Bernie has been through this once before and now knows the party he's voted with for decades have no hesitation in sticking a knife in the back of an allie.

On a side note I saw this about Tulsi and I thought it would be a hit piece, but it said way more about HERmajesty. https://www.concordmonitor.com/Tulsi-Marco-and-Hillary-32275861

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6 users have voted.

@Snode I hope I’m wrong but I’ve seen nothing from Bernie that he would even consider running against the Dems as a third party.

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Wally's picture

@snoopydawg

Bernie is running on the DP platform and has promised to abide by the rules. But if he gets screwed again I'm hoping that he runs third party. He has nothing to lose if he does and time is too short to wait for another Bernie type to step up.

I'd add that we have everything to lose if he doesn't get the nomination. Maybe he can win if he runs third party. I'd vote for him if he does but I'm not confident he'd win that way. That's why I'm so adamant about supporting him now while he has a chance of getting the Democratic Party nomination.

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8 users have voted.

@Wally
Like he did with Her Heinous? I'm still mad about that. Offering lip service to the nominee, yes. Actively campaigning, going to colleges and lying abut her, No. Luckily it sounds like the kids knew better. Lost 90% of my confidence in him then.

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7 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Wally's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

Yea, well, he said he will support the nominee as has Tulsi.

If Bernie doesn't get the nomination, or even if at some point it looks like he doesn't have a path to the nomination, I'm done no matter what he does. In 2016, I voted Green. In 2020, I don't think so, especially if Hawkins is the nominee.

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@Wally
1) register Democrat
2) donate to a campaign

Bernie changed all that

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9 users have voted.
Wally's picture

@gjohnsit

. . . I will change my registration to Independent after being a Democrat since 1972 and probably never vote for any candidate to any office, contribute to any politcial campaign or cause, or otherwise be politically involved again.

If I reach a point where I no longer think Bernie and Berners have a decent chance of pulling off a miracle, I will buy and drink only craft beers (although being cheap, I probably won't be able to pass up really good sales on beers I consider to at least be drinkable). In ny event, I'm generally not hops enthusiastic.

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3 users have voted.

@Wally

I will change my registration to Independent after being a Democrat since 1972 and probably never vote for any candidate to any office, contribute to any politcial campaign or cause, or otherwise be politically involved again.

I'll go back to being 3rd party no matter how things go.
Unless other AOC-type candidates win.

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5 users have voted.

@Wally @Wally

1. Voting for Tulsi in the Beauty contest (no delegates are awarded)
2. Voting for all the Bernie delegates (what really counts and Tulsi hasn't any delegates on the ballot)
3. Voting for what's his face - not Kim Foxx. He's probably scum too but he's new scum.
That's Illinois politics. The (R)'s don't even have a candidate so whomever wins the Democratic primary is assured of being State's Attorney (barring an indictment)

I don't care about any of the other scumbags (like Durbin) on the ballot.

EDIT:
I castigate others for saying "Democrat Party". Don't know how I wound up doing it myself.

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2 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

@Wally @Wally
actively campaigning for and with them.
Did Ted Kennedy go on campaign stops with Jimmy Carter?
Did Paul Tsongas attend rallies with Bill Clinton?

Yet they gave their lip service to the candidate. that's all anyone expects.

EDIT:
When Goldwater was nominated in 1964 an Illinois Congressman ran against him on a third party ticket. Another appeared in Kennedy ads saying "My party made a mistake". That's the sort of thing you promise not to do. Not follow here around like a sheepdog telling kids lies about how wonderful she is and they should vote for her.

Can you imagine what things would be like if this was the fourth year of a Hillary Presidency?

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1 user has voted.

We are so screwed.

@snoopydawg I can see things coming down to political tribalism vs progressive goals.

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9 users have voted.

Things can move quickly once voting starts. I'm nervous, but this is the best I've felt the whole cycle. We can win this.

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8 users have voted.
WoodsDweller's picture

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/john-delaney-drops-out-2020-election_n_5d...

Former Maryland congressman and businessman John Delaney announced Friday he is suspending his presidential campaign.

Delaney said in a statement that internal analyses showed his support wasn’t enough to meet the 15% viability threshold needed in Iowa caucus precincts, but it was strong enough to take away from other like-minded Democratic candidates.

Where, oh where, will his dozens of supporters go?

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12 users have voted.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett

@WoodsDweller
which where to go...
Hear it is nice this time of the year Wink

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2 users have voted.

May we be united and strong -- laurel

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@WoodsDweller

Where, oh where, will his dozens of supporters go?

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7 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

I don't trust them anymore. OW! OW! OW!

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4 users have voted.

"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

Then comes Super Tuesday, with the two largest states in the nation.

Texas actually is not the 2nd biggest state in this context. CA is biggest at 415 but NY is second at 274. Texas has 228 and FL has 219.

This is mainly because late states get bonuses for being late and/or being in a region. PA and NJ also get significant bonuses for the same reasons (PA is 186). All counts in this message are for pledged delegates, and the ratios (but not order) change a bit if you include superdelegates.

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4 users have voted.