Venezuela just might make it after all

Juan Guaidó used some political theater to keep his career alive for now, but the international community is losing faith in his coup.

In Argentina, the leftist government of President Alberto Fernández has withdrawn credentials for the Venezuelan ambassador of U.S.-backed opposition figure Juan Guaidó — reversing the stance of former right-wing President Mauricio Macri. Elisa Trotta Gamus was recognized as the legitimate ambassador of Venezuela by Macri last year, as Guaidó self-appointed himself as president and attempted to overthrow elected Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In a two-sentence letter addressed to Trotta Gamus, the Fernández government notified it was “putting an end to your special mission in the Argentine Republic.”

While that is significant it is only symbolic.
More important is Venezuela's primary export, and that where we find a sliver of good news.

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Bouncing back from a string of blackouts, outages and fires, PDVSA managed to bring back its oil output to levels unseen since February-March 2019 (i.e. the December average stands so far at 0.91mbpd). This move corresponds with China’s return to official dealings with PDVSA or the intermediary Rosneft, without resorting to the exotic practice of new Malaysian blends. Increased production volumes also mean quicker paying-off of debts for PDVSA - as of Q3 2019 the Venezuelan NOC’s debt to Rosneft shrank to 800 million, implying that by the summer of 2020 PDVSA would fully absolve itself of all arrears vis-à-vis the main marketer of Venezuelan crudes now.

Maduro's deals with Russia and China are beginning to pay off. Refining equipment is getting repaired.
The next step is trickier - getting the oil to market in defiance of a U.S. embargo.
In this regard Maduro is having some small success as well.

The tankers turn their transponders off before entering Venezuelan waters, Bloomberg revealed in a recent report, allowing them to load crude from the sanctioned state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PdVSA), without being detected by GPS.
...
Of 10.86 million barrels of oil exported by Venezuela in the first 11 days of November, around half were transported by this method. Most were delivered to China or India, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

Venezuela has increasingly resorted to such clandestine methods since US sanctions hit PdVSA in January. In July, vessels were found to be turning off their transponders and changing their names to bypass US controls on Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba.

It's still too early to say, but Venezuela has a chance of weathering the pressure from the U.S.
The threat of war with Iran has the unforeseen benefit of driving up oil prices, which really helps Russia and Venezuela.

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Comments

this sounds familiar

Plans to complete a pipeline delivering Iranian gas to Pakistan stalled after Pakistan's energy ministry said last week that it could not continue with the project as long as Tehran was subject to US sanctions.

The pipeline agreement was first signed by Iran and Pakistan in 1995, and the US has repeatedly opposed the deal.

Iran completed its section of the pipeline in 2011, and reportedly offered Pakistan $500 million (€448 million) to help with construction. The estimated total cost of the pipeline is $7 billion (€6.2 billion).

The deal was originally conceived to deliver Iranian gas to India via Pakistan, but New Delhi withdrew from the agreement because of security issues and high costs.

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edg's picture

I often wonder how prosperous and successful countries under US sanctions would be if they didn't have the US constantly trying to destroy them through economic and subversive means.

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CB's picture

@edg
America would be.

The US has been engaged in almost continuous conflict for control of resources, commodities and wealth since it's inception.

"The normal profits of a business concern in the United States are six, eight, ten, and sometimes twelve percent. But war-time profits -- ah! that is another matter -- twenty, sixty, one hundred, three hundred, and even eighteen hundred per cent -- the sky is the limit."

"War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives."

- Smedley Butler

How fitting that the flag of the first truly global corporation, The East India Company, be chosen as inspiration for the American flag.

In effect, when we pay allegiance to the flag, we are paying allegiance to Corporate America.

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The Liberal Moonbat's picture

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In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!

I heard NPR referring to Guaido as "the rightful leader of Venezuela". How is the guy who didn't even stand for election "the rightful leader".
If dumbass Republicans weren't afraid of the very word "socialism", Russia and China wouldn't be making inroads in the Western Hemisphere. The USA is the logical trading partner of Venezuela -but "Arrgh! Socialism!".

I'm starting to hope Bernie doesn't win because they won't let him live until inauguration.

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I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

Raggedy Ann's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

I'm starting to hope Bernie doesn't win because they won't let him live until inauguration.

Should he win and something happen to him - do you think the Americans will let them get away with it? It's so obvious now - unlike when JFK was assassinated - who to blame should something horrific befall Bernie.....
Pleasantry

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

CB's picture

@Raggedy Ann
Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the US.

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Raggedy Ann's picture

@CB
they would make it look like a heart attack?

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

@Raggedy Ann
What's that old TV detective trick? Inject an air bubble into a vein?

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I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

Raggedy Ann's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness
Help

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

CB's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness
Bernie does AFTER the election.

Truth be told, one is allowed to make any promise to the plebs during the Kabuki play we call elections. Keeping some is optional. Keeping others may be forbidden.

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Wally's picture

@CB

The 2020 Demotivator Award!

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