Bernie leads in national poll, but you would never know it from the headlines

The Bernie Blackout has gone beyond ridiculous.

The Hill
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A new Reuters-Ipsos poll shows that if former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg was to formally enter the Democratic primary race, he would be tied nationally with Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.)

Released Friday, the national poll shows Bloomberg and Harris tied at 3 percent. Ahead of them is South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 6 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at 13 percent, and former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leading the pack at 19 percent each.

Fox
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Sen. Kamala Harris, whose campaign cut staff in a dramatic restructuring last month, is now polling at just 3 percent, tying her with Michael Bloomberg for fifth place among the Democratic Party’s presidential nominees -- according to a poll released Friday -- even though Bloomberg hasn't even formally announced his 2020 candidacy.
...three paragraphs later...
In the poll, both Harris and Bloomberg fell behind Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., who polled at 6 percent, and Sen Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who polled at 13 percent. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders led the Demicratic field tied at 19 percent support.

Even Reuters
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If former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg enters the 2020 Democratic presidential nominating race, he will be the fifth most-popular candidate, and his presence may draw more support away from former Vice President Joe Biden than others, a new Reuters/Ipsos public opinion poll shows.
...two paragraphs later...
The result puts the billionaire media mogul well behind Biden and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont (19% each), U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (13%) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana (6%). U.S. Senator Kamala Harris of California also had 3% support in the poll.
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Centaurea's picture

So this means Bloomberg would enter the race as a Top Tier Candidate.

he would be tied nationally with Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.)

(Sorry, I couldn't resist. Blum 3 )

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

mimi's picture

@Centaurea
apologized for the way the NY police force has treated black and latino folks. Did Kamala Harris that too?
Nah ... Bloomberg beats her heads down. Blum 3

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Alligator Ed's picture

You left this reader without any greater knowledge than before reading your essay.

To paraphrase your title, you would never know Bernie's national polling from reading this essay.

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@Alligator Ed

The result puts the billionaire media mogul well behind Biden and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont (19% each), U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (13%) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana (6%). U.S. Senator Kamala Harris of California also had 3% support in the poll.

The title of this post highlights how Bloomberg with 3% takes the headlines while Bernie tying Biden is not news.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Alligator Ed

He's tied with Biden, 19%.

If you believe these polls, that is, which I've really started not to. Biden's continual front-runner status is simply not credible. Nor are the polls which put Bernie Sanders behind Pete Buttigieg.

I've said a lot of harsh things about Elizabeth Warren on here, but I would actually buy the idea that she was trouncing Bernie. She sounds just enough like him to make people think she supports the same things and she has a lot more institutional support than he does. It's like an establishment-supported female version of Bernie. For those who believe she is the same, policy-wise, as he is, that would be a powerful combination.

But Buttigieg? He's like a white, less intelligent, less charismatic, less politically skilled version of Obama. Take Obama and drain away some of his IQ, charisma and melanin, make him younger, and you've got Buttigieg.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

It's a horse race. Buttigieg is spending pretty much all his money there in Iowa.

CBS/YouGov

Bernie: 22%
Biden: 22%
Buttigieg: 21%
Warren: 18%
Tulsi: 0%

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WoodsDweller's picture

@Wally
Sanders, Biden, and Warren have a future in the race if they don't do well in Iowa. Bloomberg can take a fraction of the interest on his money and stay in the race as long as he wants. Without a good showing in Iowa, Buttigieg and Harris are finished. They have no choice but to go all in there.
Actually, if Biden gets shut out of delegates in Iowa (below 15%) he may be done as well. His claim is that he's the one that can beat Trump, but his remaining support may abandon him if he can't even win the early primary states. He still looks good in South Carolina, though, so maybe he hangs on until then.

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The truth is never as interesting as wild speculation.

@WoodsDweller of campaign cash, and the vessel is likely to get as big as Jeff Bezos' yacht as the South Bender's tide rises in the polls. So he could easily survive a non-win in IA. Plenty of $$ to sail on to New Hampshire and beyond.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Wally

in his previously entirely single-digit poll results. If all of those results had been Iowa-only polls, maybe. But Mr. Single Digits Billionaire Buddy suddenly surging upwards because...why? His heartwarming civility?

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal as intelligent or more than Obama. Obama's intelligence was always slightly overrated. Charisma, yes. And twice the speaker or speechmaker that Boot is, if only Obama had put his very good rhetorical skills to more use as president. Charismatic Boot is not, but he's also not a dullard.

I see him as the American Macron. Well-educated young technocrat type with an unconventional marriage espousing safe centrist policies that won't upset the ruling class, but which offer just enough pragmatic liberalism for some left-leaners to be happy.

He's being called the Goldilocks candidate -- not too hot with bold rad-lib proposals, not too cold with overdoing the corporate-friendly centrism. The Establishment's viable alternative to Biden.

I didn't see this one coming, but here we are and enough Iowans seem to be buying it.

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@wokkamile And according to the DesMoines Register poll he is nine points up on Warren and ten on Biden and Sanders.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/11/...

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@davidgmillsatty IA caucus polls have a very good track record in recent decades. This per S Kornacki

This is the poll I'm going to watch. And as we enter the final 2.5 months before they caucus, the voters will finally start to get more engaged and informed and so the DMR polling should be both fluid and yet more accurate. Also important to watch for late charging candidates, whether Bernie or Liz or whoever, who could close what could be a real 9-pt adv for Boot and come w/n 3 pts or so in the final pre-caucus polls. That candidate could emerge on top.

Or it could be Boot the Mayor emerging with an improbable victory. My current guest would be elated. Me, I would immediately try to clear my head and look hopefully to the next contest in the land of Betty and Barney Hill.

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@wokkamile In the past I have always found that local polls often capture trends that national polls do not.

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@davidgmillsatty Trump is apparently killing it among his supporters in IA. I had asked here about how well Trump was doing in the Midwest and the consensus was that he was very beatable in the Midwest states he won last time. If I recall correctly, Trump won IA by about 7 or 8%.

But according to the Des Moines Register poll he is extremely popular with his Republican base in IA.

President Donald Trump enjoys widespread popularity among registered Republicans in Iowa, the first state that will cast preference votes in the 2020 presidential race, a new Iowa Poll shows.

The president's popularity has never been higher among registered Republicans who don't plan to attend the Democratic caucuses, the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll found.

His overall job approval is up 4 percentage points from March to 85%. The percentage of those who say they will definitely vote to re-elect him is up 9 percentage points to 76%.

“I think he’s doing a tremendous job, really, as far as I’m concerned,” said Wayne Sparker, an 82-year-old Lake Mills resident and poll respondent. "... I’ve been a Democrat all my life, but when he ran for office, when I could see what he was standing up for — for the borders and the different solutions he brought forth — I felt that I definitely needed to vote for him."

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/11/...

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@davidgmillsatty a matter of T keeping his base. That's not been in question -- he's consistently getting solid 90% R backing nationwide. And more still with Rs in Congress. As others have said, it's almost cult-like. Pod people have emerged in the middle of the night and are taking over the country.

Or so it seems when looked at from a narrow perspective. And DJT will need more than just reliable Rs to win in IA and the other states he needs. He needs Indy-Rs and True Indies to win. I don't see it happening. Although this assumes some modicum of political intelligence from the Dem Party and being a little smarter than last time. As in nominating someone who can help keep the party energized about voting -- 3-4 current candidates could do that -- and who could help get Indy-Ds and True Is to show up en masse to the polls. Also helpful, unlike last time, would be for the D nominee to select a dynamic running mate.

If the Ds are reasonably smart, Donald will be defeated. And the senate will (barely) go D as well, for a clean sweep.

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@wokkamile I see this as a Midwest rejection of the three east coast candidates. And that is my fear. So you get a ho-hum response from the Midwest states needed to win the EC and enthusiastic supporters on the other side.

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@davidgmillsatty MWers to be so parochial next year as to shoot themselves in the foot out of regional pride in the GE. Remember, this will be a referendum on the incumbent election with voters -- Ds, Indy-Ds and True Indies -- highly motivated to show up to vote to oust this most corrupt and hated incumbent vs the 90% of the pod R base who will be motivated to return him as instructed.

I think Trump has disappointed a lot of blue-collar Rs, Indy-Rs and True Rs. He didn't quite bring back the hundreds of thousands of jobs he suggested would be returning. And next year, unlike last time, the D nominee will make extra sure to nail down those key MW states plus PN, while putting aside fanciful notions of spending time trying to push the boulder in TX and AZ.

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Shahryar's picture

@davidgmillsatty

I think I've said before that I prefer Harris to Boot. After seeing this poll I believe I prefer Biden to Boot. And that's saying an awful lot!

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@wokkamile

Is it in those earnest looks he gets on his face?

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal more warmth than you normally get from a technocrat.

Maybe a little charmth, as we consider the funny face, the diminutive stature, the colorful personal profile.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@wokkamile

then we'll be watching Pete Buttigieg vs Donald Trump in the civility vs bad manners race of 2020!

I guess we'd better hope all the establishment Dems--whether "centrist" or "liberal"--turn out in droves behind Mayor Pete, because I can tell you right now, independents and third-party folks will not turn out for him. And despite his being young, neither will the young. Unfortunately for the corporate Democrats, the Millennials and Gen Y have reasonably good bullshit detectors. They won't fall for an empty suit--for the Millennials it would be the second time they did so, and that's probably one time too many for a generation with any bullshit detector whatsoever.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

has anything to do with the results.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal too severely from just the perspective of voters considering the Petester. This will be an election more about a judgment about Donald. In that sense, even the erratic, multimillionaire Bill Maher had it essentially right -- even an Amy Klobuchar could beat Donnie. Although I don't recommend it or running that boring, overly moderate risk, while Bill has seemed to endorse her.

The elections held in several states this year are a bad omen for Donald, esp in the states where he campaigned for the losing R candidate. Ditto for the 2018 midterms.

Donald is in trouble, and the ongoing impeachment investigation, esp if it branches out beyond U-gate into other areas of HC&Ms, will further damage DT. GOP senators up for re-elect in tough states will be in a tough spot either acquitting him or convicting him. Difficult to see these 4-5 R senators holding on to their jobs.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

since they cut away from a Bernie Sanders speech to put a camera on an empty podium where Trump would be speaking later.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

WoodsDweller's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal @Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal and President-elect Sanders is about to take the Oath of Office. Every network cuts away to an empty podium where Hillary Clinton will be speaking later while pundits discuss who will be able to beat whats-his-name in 2024.

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The truth is never as interesting as wild speculation.

Raggedy Ann's picture

@WoodsDweller
It's also unfortunately true. Pleasantry

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“The trouble [with injustice] is that once you see it, you can’t unsee it. And once you’ve seen it, keeping quiet, saying nothing, becomes as political an act as speaking out. There is no innocence. Either way, you’re accountable.”
-- Arundhati Roy

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@WoodsDweller

Remember how, before we all got freaked out about Trump, there were a growing number of actual, substantial protests in front of the headquarters of media corporations such as CNN?

Had to get that in hand RIGHT away.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

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Peace Sells

snoopydawg's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

that the media didn't want to cover anything that had to do with Bernie. The Gate guards couldn't show the country how Bernie's supporters weren't going to take what the DNC was shoveling standing up.

I hadn't seen this before. Thanks.

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America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

I suspect that Bernie is doing much better than imagined, as most polls survey mostly those 50 and over with a landline

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@munbeam666
powerful

Fox Business host Stuart Varney suggested on Monday that Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders was making a "powerful" point by calling for increased taxes on America's wealthiest citizens.

Varney, who hosts Varney & Co., made the comment as he interviewed Kayleigh McEnany, the national press secretary for Trump's 2020 presidential campaign. He played a clip of Sanders, an independent senator from Vermont, vowing that he would make billionaires pay their "fair share" of taxes.

"You know, this income inequality issue, beating up the billionaires, say, 'Come on, you can afford just a few extra million dollars in taxes,' that's a powerful line," the host asserted. "How do you go after it?" he asked McEnany.

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