Musings on the Presidential Horse Race
We seem to have roughly 10 candidates on the Democratic side. Not all of them have declared, and someone else might throw their hat in, but I think we have a good first roster.
We have six establishment candidates: Biden, Gillibrand, Harris, Booker, Castro, and O'Rourke. Is there a nickle's worth of difference between them in terms of policy? It seems to me that we are being offered the chance to pick your identity politics, but no choices in policy. Do you want an old white man, a young white man, a white woman, a black woman, a black man, or a Hispanic man?
We have four non-establishment candidates (there are no anti-establishment candidates, and I don't think there ever will be): Sanders, Warren, Gabbard, and Ojeda.
Democratic primaries are pro-rated, you need 15% of the vote it be awarded delegates. We can hope that if all the six establishment candidates participate in the first few contests they will get few if any delegates between them. Some will drop out quickly, the remaining set will start accumulating delegates.
I want to hear Ojeda in the debates, but I don't think his candidacy is going anywhere.
If Sanders enters the race does Gabbard stay in? Do Warren and Sanders split delegates and leave themselves vulnerable to a single establishment candidate pulling ahead by Super Tuesday?
So I have a theory. Sanders won't run, but will sit back for a while and watch the race heat up. Then he'll make a decision between Gabbard (better policies) and Warren (starts with stronger support). He'll endorse one candidate in the primaries, campaign for her, fund raise for her, and give her his email list. The progressive wing would start out united, while the establishment wing will take a couple of months to fall in line behind a single candidate.
With an early delegate lead and lots of excitement the progressive candidate (I'm going to say Gabbard, but Warren is probably a safer choice) ekes out a narrow victory at the convention on the first ballot. They passed the reform that the super delegates can't vote on the first ballot, right?
To unify the party, Gabbard picks one of the establishment candidates as her running mate. I'm going to say Castro.
So you have a woman and a Hispanic on the ticket. Identity politics satisfied.
Massachusetts has more electoral votes, but both Mass and Hawaii will vote for the Democrats anyway, so it doesn't matter.
An establishment candidate might be dumb enough to neglect organizing in Florida, but Sanders won't. Florida should go Democratic just based on the new voters from Amendment 4.
My question is about Castro -- is there any chance he could deliver Texas? The Hispanic vote is the deciding factor, he's a native born Texan, not a carpet bagger. Would that be enough to attract Hispanic Texans to register and vote? A loss in both Florida and Texas would be devastating for the Republicans.
Your thoughts?
Comments
This would be the end of the bernie phenomena.
IMHO he has no right to and it would cause many fence sitters to drop him completely.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Last round the Dem table was cleared
The last go-round the table was cleared in advance by the Clintons. No one felt they could go up against their machine, media, and money, so no one ran. Except some old dude from a little state no one ever heard of. Biden used his son's passing as an excuse, he could not go up against the Clintons. No one could. So they made fun of the clown car on the other side.
This time around the Dems will have a clown-car of their very own. They want everyone to run to split the vote from any strong or good candidate, like in case some old dude comes along and runs again. Twenty choices with lots of ID politics, divide and conquer. Then just name Hillary their person. How can Warren really think she has a chance? She is being put up to it to draw others out. I'm not so sure about Castro, will have to check his record, but methinks establishment status quo.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein
Bernie was the perfect gentleman
hey there were five D candidates! Remember? I forgot. Sanders, Clinton... I had to look up the other three. O'Malley, Chafee, Webb, zzzz.... LOL forgettable what now? Oh yeah.
I was such a sucker feeling the bern bigly, it'd still be fun to see him go on and debate Trump I think. He'd tear him to shreds with his terrible kindness, bury him in a landslide of compassion. heh I might vote for that, if it had no D attached. good luck
I'm with Caitlin on this.
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2019/01/14/five-reasons-im-excited-about-tu...
chuck utzman
TULSI 2020
Interesting analysis.
I like it. I think it could pretty much go that way. Bernie will only run if he doesn’t see anyone pushing progressive enough. That was his stance in 2015, I don’t think he’s going to change that up much if at all. Your theory makes the most sense to me when I consider Bernie’s strategy.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
I like your theory too . . .
I can't see that Bernie would run if he didn't have to. And I agree with all of Caitlin's points.
Julian Castro seems weak to me. Wasn't he mayor of San Antonio though? That would tell a lot about who he really is. His exploration video was horrible however. Pretty boy (sexist?).
Elizabeth Warren lost her appeal when she didn't endorse Bernie. At that point the jazz was sucked right out of her. Sad thing after all of those amazing speeches in the senate.
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
I feel the same way
She did get the consumer board up and running. It has done some great work.
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
Bernie is going to run.
People on the left involved in politics say he has done everything but officially declare. He fired his campaign manager and old friend to hire a new one, who is less of a hot button to staff and who will push him when he gets stubborn. His staff said the gloves have to come off. He is recruiting the folks that ran AOCs digital media campaign. His org held 450 house parties in all 50 states last weekend . They are gearing up fund raising. Bernie is running and will soon make it official is the buzz.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
You're probably right about Bernie running again.
Ageism being on everyone's mind concerning Bernie--but not about Trump who's almost that old. Warren, another old veteran, a septuagenarian almost, blew her credibility when she failed to endorse Bernie during the Mass primary. I don't think she has either the backbone or the integrity of either Bernie or Tulsi. We'll see what kind of charisma Tulsi has outside of Hawaii. Would she step aside for Bernie? Would Bernie step aside for her? We've got 12 months to think about this. In the meantime other Dem Klowns are lining up for their rides in the Klown Kar.
I think so too
First time around, I'm not sure he thought he'd be as popular as he ended up being. I think he was more concerned about getting his ideas out there and the response surprised him. He buried Clinton in NH, and ended up with exactly the same number of delegates as Her highness. He def. needed a better campaign team.
10 candidates, one big small donor database
welcome to data collection season, all in! And the folks left sitting around with just a vote, let no special small donor get left behind while we sit and wait a year until the primary even starts. yawns. Until then, sit back and enjoy the kabuki. Did Gabbard really say she was running on "war and peace"? Great! I hope that's all she talks about, forever more.
What makes anyone think Bernie won't hand over his list like he did before? Maybe 'cause it's an income stream now, for his own fine public/private big club woo. Not for billionaires, but cool millionaires actblue, actbernie. heh
Bernie is great, but he will support any D-diddly-Democrat against Trump, he is for Anyone But Trump. I am almost there too, keep pounding. Imagine having to work with heartless assholes all day every day, until you become one yourself! That is how I see the U.S. Congress nutshell, except Bernie and maybe a couple of others. Totally powerless.
USians are ready for a Labor Party, I think. IWW, or should hook up with Canadian and Mexican workers, whatever. Just be one big happy american union, north and south. forget about walls
If all citizens get out of this next election is more Overton window dressing, please let it be shifted toward peace. Pretty please? Thanks.
So true that he needs different campaign people . . .
Not sure if that means 100% different folks, but definitely tighter security on who works for him. From the clinton muscle men taking over the Iowa caucuses, to the DNC tech guy bringing down the data wall trying to make it look like Bernie's team was at fault, to the fake Bernie people in NC lying and saying that Rev. Barber did not want them at the march . . . etc. . .
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
Washington’s Governor Jay Inslee contemplating
He’s talking abut running on climate. Even though that’s my issue and he’s my governor, I was unimpressed with his handling of the last carbon tax initiative - and I’m not sure where his is on corporate contributions. A cursory glance at open secrets suggests he is relatively clean, but he’s never going to do anything useful on climate is there is any corporate money. Stil, if he just makes enough noise, that could be useful.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
I suspect that Inslee
I'm in WA State also. I suspect that Inslee may be angling for a Cabinet appointment. In fact, I seem to recall talk in 2016 about him being up for Sec of the Interior in the Clinton II administration. He was a Hillary superdelegate from the get-go.
Inslee is an centrist establishment Democrat. He loves corporations and kisses corporate derrieres to keep them happy. There's no way I would ever vote for him for POTUS.
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
That sounds right
I met him last summer and he had that oily corporate sheen. I didn’t want to judge based on such a superficial impression, but his claim that he would appoint “hairdressers” to the 1631 commission struck me as somewhere between naive and disingenuous.
His latest health care proposal is another corporate giveaway. The Greens sent me a petition this morning to try to get him to endorse the Whole Washington proposal instead, but I’m not holding my breath...
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
I was reading about
I was reading about that new healthcare proposal yesterday, and I think you're right. He's saying it's "like Medicare for All", but it is not, in any way.
I had another thought about Inslee's potential run for the presidency. Remember in 2016, the WA caucuses went overwhelmingly for Bernie.
Could this be a tactic by the DNC to reduce Bernie's votes -- get Inslee to run in exchange for the promise of a Cabinet seat, the idea being that WA will go for "favorite son" Inslee?
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
He really cares about climate
And he has a WA lege that might actually “do something.” Give that nothing will happen at the National level without flipping the senate, I think he would stay here.
The disconnect between his passion and physical reality is where I think is is clueless. The kinds of turd way policies he would implement would be so inefficient between all the feeders at the trough and the Amazon exceptions that he will fail. My question is will he figure out what is really required, or will he just “work the problem” until he crashes?
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Sanders should stay out of the Dem primary altogether
When Gabbard doesn’t clinch it (because the party will never allow that), Sanders should run Green/independent and tap Gabbard as his running mate.
The Dems and their establishment candidate of choice now have a two-front battle to contend with, and get the hard sell of asking voters whether they really want to reject Trump or only kinda sorta a little want to.
And we get 4 more years! nt
Of what?
Corporate governance, war, encroaching police state, environmental indifference (at best), evisceration of our public trusts (SS, public education, national parks)...?
If you think there’s a “Blue no matter who” candidate that opposes any of that (Obama certainly didn’t), then perhaps there’s another website better suited to the focus of your energies?
You seem to have missed the essay . . .
Where JtC encouraged civility to people expressing a full range of opinions.
Oh, you poor dear!
I had no idea you bruised so easily! I’ll try to remember to give you a much wider berth next time you insist on interacting with me.
No bruises.
You didn't see me respond to your specific arguments. They're worth considering. Having seen another place ripped apart by demands to leave and, ultimately, people banned, I have no desire to see it again. I have no problem if a Trump supporter comments here as long as the person can tolerate considered responses.
Criticize me all you want. Just don't tell me to go away.
Are the rest of us really not supposed to be bemused by
the spectacle of a user called FutureNow and a user called FuturePassed engaging in a small, strange, drawn-out, almost content-free dispute that rather resembles a pair of hands pretending to talk to each other?
And where the hell is FutureYetToCome, anyway? Didn't he get an invitation?
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
FutureYetToCome
Is waiting for EndOfTheWorld to finish up in the bathroom.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Maybe he can write a FutureClassicRockStaple while he's waiting
[video:https://youtu.be/qx3EQQQ6yjM]
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
It might be a long wait
EndOfTheWorld sadly chose the burrito enchilada combo as his last meal.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
I guess EndOfTheWorld is more Patty Smith than Patti Boyd.
BTW, that is an extraordinary rendition of Wonderful Night, even if you think the song kinda sucks. There's an extended vocal by a woman named Katie Kissoon, kicks in somewhere around the 6-minute mark, frisson is guaranteed.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Nice interplay
Between vocals and instrumentals. I always enjoy live performances. Whether they are concerts or plays, there's something electric about the organic component and experiencing it collectively.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier