Russiagate hysteria is finally too much for Nate Silver
Nate Silver is a loyal establishment Dem, BUT he can also do simple math.
What set off Silver was articles like this:
Russians launched pro-Jill Stein social media blitz to help Trump win election, reports say
Building support for Stein was one of a “roster of themes” the Moscow-sanctioned internet trolls “turned to repeatedly” in their effort to disrupt the election, according to a research team led by the New Knowledge cybersecurity firm. The researchers also found that the campaign to bolster Stein gained in intensity in the final days of the presidential campaign and largely targeted African-American voters.The reports, prepared by separate groups of cyber experts, add to the growing body of evidence that the Russians worked to boost the Stein campaign as part of the effort to siphon support away from Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and tilt the election to Trump.
An NBC News analysis found that Russians working under the direction of the Internet Research Agency, the St. Petersburg-based firm run by a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, tweeted the phrase “Jill Stein” over 1,000 times around the time of the election.
There are two big problems with this story, but only if you can think for yourself.
Normally Silver wouldn't say anything about this, but the math just didn't make any sense.
For instance, this story makes a big deal about a (post-election) Russian social media disinformation campaign on Bob Mueller based on... 5,000 tweets? That's **nothing**. Platform-wide, there are something like 500,000,000 tweets posted each day.https://t.co/LI8wt6tua8 pic.twitter.com/I2XOIf0rdy
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 18, 2018
What fraction of overall social media impressions on the 2016 election were generated by Russian troll farms? 0.1%? I'm not sure what the answer is, but suspect it's low, and it says something that none of the reports that hype up the importance of them address that question.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 18, 2018
Oh, noes! Common sense!
The narrative falls apart when you have something to compare it to.
The narrative gets even worse the more things you compare it to.
While the debate rages on over how much Russia really influenced the results of the 2016 presidential elections, one detail put the entire controversy in perspective: Democratic operatives spent an identical amount of money on their project to create a Russian bot “false flag” campaign during the Alabama 2017 special election.
The entire premise of "Russia hacked the election" makes no sense based on the size of the effort.
As you could imagine, the idiots on DKos ate this up with a spoon anyway.
No surprise here. That she was being wined and dined at Putin’s table mere months before the 2016 campaign season began in earnest, made it obvious to most sentient humans that she was Russia’s candidate, propped up to drain support from Hillary. But seeing it confirmed in a Senate report is chilling.Hillary was robbed. America was attacked. We are at war.
When you have no perspective, everything looks like war.
The other problem with this story is the source of this latest hype.
Who is New Knowledge cybersecurity?
Jimmy Dore found out for us - it's a bunch of Democratic Party insiders.
Comments
From a link in the article
Bespalov worked at the IRA "troll factory" and during an interview he said ..
Likely doesn't mean that there is evidence to back up that statement. This is the same as "all 17 intelligence agencies believe that Russia interfered with the election. I can believe that I'm 34 , but that doesn't make it true now does it?
You know what could have gotten people to vote for Trump instead of Herheinous? Exposure. Yep. Trump got more exposure than the other GOP candidates. Who's bright idea was that?
Hillary was afraid of losing in a fair election and so after she cheated to win the primary she had the media focus on who she thought was the weaker candidate. Trump then received $2 billion in free advertising. Brilliant idea, Hillary.
And remember that she paid people to go on to websites and say nice things about her and 'correct' anyone who had her 'record' wrong.
Why do people on ToP think that everyone who voted for Stein owed their votes to Hillary? And didn't the libertarian candidate get more votes than Stein did? And why aren't they pissed at the people who didn't vote for anyone? Weren't there more of them than who voted for Stein?
But isn't it funny how Russia decided not to interfere with the midterms? Weren't they supposed to be getting more aggressive in their efforts to disrupt the country? Hmm ..
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
"Why do people on ToP think
that everyone who voted for Stein owed their votes to Hillary?"
The relationship is quasi feudal in nature. In return for whatever Clinton offers, her vassals owe her service/votes regardless. Stein voters are outlaws.
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
Banished All the Farmers and Then Complain as They Starve
without their labor and the fruits of said labor. Fucking morons.
I really do have to wonder how so many people are so completely charmed by the corporate media and the political talent they have under contract. How is it working? How do people get so screwed up as to believe that shit?
I mentioned "magic" the other day, and music and media as modern day magic, and I'm sure that is a fact. But I want to know if it is it more than the verbiage and imagery?
The music in the background on news stories is obnoxious and toxic, IMO, but is it more than that? Is there something else embedded in there that does the yeoman's work of colonizing the mind? Is it the cumulative effects of a toxic stew?
I don't know, but I want to.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
The leaked DNC emails show why the media hide the truth
The corporate media are deeply complicit having implemented the Democratic Party's scheme. There are many entries showing close coordination between the campaign and friendly media organizations and personnel.
This is absolutely what made Donald Trump a viable candidate and the reason they will never connect the dots to the degree required by the average citizen.
If You Can't Connect the Dots, Smear the Picture.
The corporate media long ago stopped trying to connect the dots. I'm thinking 2007 or so, when the internet and independent media started to smash the corporate media.
They made a very clear choice to dump the idea of controlling the narrative (highlighting and connecting the dots) and decided to sow confusion (smear the image and muddy the waters). It was a good gig for a while. But it failed to maintain hegemony: QED - Drumpf.
They are trying to turn the clock back and control the narrative. But they did such a good job of smearing the picture, as active agents of confusion, that they cannot be trusted any longer by any but the most credulous and naive souls. That the credulous and naive souls sit in the upper middle class and consider themselves "professionals" is no coincidence. They watch Good Morning America with their coffee every morning.
Unfortunately for the corporate media and the Corporate State, 10% of the population with dwindling purchasing power and influence are not enough to hold the Center. The irony is that the 90-99th percentile are going to pay the biggest price and run the race to the bottom the fastest.
Many of us lower class types will enjoy the schadenfreude, and pull those assholes into the bucket with us. I'm sure it's a strategy too. The Oligarchs are going to make the 90-99th percentile the whipping boys and scapegoats; and the lower classes will believe it because of their selfish and naive actions and opinions. Heh. I just laid out the future stratagem of Oligarchy if we make it that far.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Acknowledging the existence of the emails would be a good start
As far as I can tell, the majority of those who remember even hearing about their very existence assume that the texts are Russian creations.
Mentioning their existence in conversations with Democratic friends always seems to result in my being labelled a Russian stooge. The folks hiding the truth are good (enough) at what they do.
This time last year
we had dinner at the home of one of the two couples who are our best friends. It was a little over two weeks until our planned departure to our new home in Cuenca, Ecuador. This was sort of a farewell and holiday get together rolled into one.
Both are internists. I’ve known both doctors for some time. The are very progressive as well as outstanding physicians. Both are strong proponents of a single payer healthcare system as well as somewhat active Dems. All four of these people are some of the most decent people I have ever known.
The one I’ve known the longest was a Bernie supporter like me while the other three supported Hillary. My wife had soured on her during the summer and, like me, was mostly disgusted by the lot of the political class. We were over the moon that we were about to board the GTFO train to sane living 150 miles south of the equator.
Close friends with very similar thinking can often discuss politics without causing hurt feelings. Respect and open minds go a long way in a group of friends. We had endured the shit fest of 2016, the election, and over a year down the rabbit hole with Alice...er... I mean the Shit Stain on Humanity. Of course the outrage du jour became a topic.
Facebook and the $100k Russian op was hot. I listened as long as I could stand it. These are educated, well informed people. The physicians are Vanderbilt trained with long careers in the most respected field of medicine. The wives are their equals in intelligence and education. Yet, only the Bernie supporter understood that $100k couldn’t possibly have any effect on a losing campaign that spent a billion bucks. There was no sense of how fatally flawed a candidate and deplorable human being she was/is. No amount of money could have saved her campaign. The “but the Russians interfered” was the only answer. My friends had turned into pod people.
It feels like insanity has overtaken the vast majority of the people in the US. Rational people I’ve known for decades are no more. They can’t think for themselves and can’t/won’t question anything they’re told to believe.
Ordinary folks, farmers, tradesmen, and professionals, in a small country on the northwest corner of South America can see the insanity. They’re as baffled as I am. My friends still can’t.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
I had a similar experience
on Tuesday. I work at a university. Our Associate Director, a bright woman with a PhD in Economics, sat and said virtually the same thing to me about Russian interference. All I could chalk it up to is that she only gets her news from the MSM - lots of NY Times, WaPo, CNN, etc. Disappointing, to say the least. I knew I couldn't counter her because she was obviously completely invested in the lie. Lots of book smarts, these folks - a little short on common sense.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
There are no Russians under my bed
Heh, I just sent that to my brother. I went on to explain that so far, Muller had found no Russians... just the click bait farm. What Muller HAS found, however, is Brits under my bed as well as Democrats under my bed pretending to be Russians. Oh... and that same Democratic operative caught pretending to be a Russian operative was also the guy testifying to the Senate on Russian interference.
In the end though, it is utterly hopeless. These are people who actually believe that 100k of puppy memes overturned the US elections thwarting Hillary's BILLION dollar machine.
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
Neither intelligence,
What they lack is the ability to question themselves and the assumptions that inform a world view that no longer makes sense. Few seem to have the critical thinking skills much less the ability to honestly ask, much less answer, if their beliefs and past experiences are still valid. They rely on habitual thinking because it’s easier than doing the work necessary to understand and form a new world view.
I don’t blame them. They are mostly victims only trying to get by in an insane world where their realities have been destroyed for fun and profit. They’re dazed and confused. Who wouldn’t be?
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
IIRC some pollster who correctly predicted both Trump and Brexit
said that part of his “secret sauce“ was giving a lot of weight to the degree of people’s agreement with the statement, “I don’t recognize my country / the place where I live anymore.”
Baffled
is right. Thanks for your insightful comments. I am likewise baffled, in that my closest friends and family members also see the Russiagate nightmare as reality. If my husband and I disagreed about it significantly we probably wouldn't be together now.
For two years I have wondered and speculated about how this could have happened, how the media could so easily control a narrative so full of holes, but especially, as you point out, for well-educated, humane, and caring people. I am at the point of thinking maybe they're not well-educated, that the lack of substance in our public education system is showing itself now in the form of a dangerous lack of knowledge.
I think for so many of my close friends and family knowledge of World War II is flimsy, superficial, by design. I think their knowledge of slavery, of the Russian Revolution, of our Civil War is likewise trivial, by design. And like an aircraft that has lost its direction signals and is flying blind at night, their thinking is veering rightward, incrementally, toward a mountainside of fascism.
My perspective has changed dramatically Linda.
Our friends are put off by by that kind of nasty exchange that normally would have begun in a very crowded public place. I held my tongue but was burning brightly. The damage wasn’t worth scoring a revenge foul.
Times have changed as have both of us. My wife detests the Clinton’s and we live in a culture that treasures respect and peace. I find it easy to conform. It’s actually my natural state. I had learned otherwise in the toxic environment of the US. I allowed myself to shoot first and ignore the damage that being an asshole does. No more. I will not live that way. My wife has mellowed dramatically too.
Disagreements are not worth relationship destruction, especially between spouses. Learning to pick my battles and to let shit go is the way to live. I can be right or I can have peace.
My point is that the only way to get respect is to give it. The only way to get love is to love. I see both in action here every day. I can do it too.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
Thank you for this beautiful statement.
Yes, my husband and I have not confronted our loved ones, and in the two years of this chasm of understanding we have stayed almost always quiet. At one point there was a brief exchange, but I could feel from my brother's reaction that this disagreement could possibly end our lifelong relationship of love and respect -- not mine for him, because I don't feel anger or disrespect for him at all, but I could feel his anger toward me, and I felt the misunderstanding in this crazy case had the potential to estrange us. In my whole life, nothing like this has ever happened. It is truly baffling.
Magic. And, Again, That is Not a Joke.
The corporate media and political Establishment are performing magic on a daily basis. It would behoove us to look at that angle instead of lack of education - the poorly educated and those disconnected to corporate have the sharpest sense of place and space at this point in time.
I used to think they were wildly off the mark when it came to the bogeyman, but I'm no longer thinking that. I think that corporate are not the masters, but the tools of the master. And it makes sense; the corporate veil is more than a shield against physical attacks. It's also about secrecy, expendability, and obfuscation.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Russiagate
Russiagate is Birthergate for Democrats. I dont mean to say its as evil, but its as silly and meant to avoid talking about any real issues. It didnt work out too well for Rs in 2012 though Ds have the advantage of a miserable human being for opponent.
I'm not saying that big data's influence in elections (and life in general) is OK, but I've been complaining about that from well before the election.
Russiagate is McCarthyism for the 21st Century
There were many otherwise intelligent Americans who passionately believed the Soviet Union was evil and that we had to risk nuclear annihilation to resist communism everywhere in the world lest our children would be singing the Internationale in Russian first thing every morning at school. They were idiots, but they had no choice. The nightmare came true. We woke up in a totalitarian country this morning, again.
I've been saying for a long time
that if people truly believe these stories, then we should hire these Russians to support whomever we nominate in 2020. These guys can win whole elections with 5000 tweets, right? They obviously know what they're doing.
Podesta and Mook are beyond useless compared to these guys.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
It's always witchcraft when the PTB lose
They don't understand what's actually happening, therefore it is witchcraft.
Everything they don't like. People aren't voting right? Witches whispering lies into the ear of the people.
War not going right? Witches sapping the will of the soldiers.
Place is burning, Clearly the fault of the witches who don't burn things properly.
Replace witches with the appropriate term for pandering to your base, be it Liberal, Conservative, Racist, or Jew.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ0O7vp0mvE]
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
In a country governed by
In a country governed by faith-based politics, with a population that finds comfort in denial rather than evidence — the rational truth-seeker becomes the natural enemy of everyone. During the social upheaval that often accompanies the dawning of a New Age, life can be lonely and a little dangerous for the critical thinker, the scientist, the logician, the philosopher, and the artist. They cannot resist seeking the truth and following where it leads.
This is a pattern that constantly repeats, as it did when the Age of Reason poured light into the Dark Age of Europe. The natural sciences, especially the science of astronomy, collided with and plowed through the faith-based politics of the Vatican. Pockets of that battle are still being fought today.
We live in a time when faith-based politics are pushed by elected politicians and high-priest appointees, who work in the interests of the wealthy elite and their corporations. They feel directly threatened by intellectual honesty and moral consistency, which are being discredited and sent to the gallows. The consequences for a society that degrades itself in this way are truly horrendous. It's a melancholy time for the consciously aware.
Having experienced both, if I had to choose between a nation under martial law or a nation under faith-based politics, I'd definitely take the former.
IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"
Super Interesting Comment Here, Pluto.
I've been on this angle for a while now. I believe the Enlightenment put blinders on the Renaissance.
The Renaissance set up a world of infinite possibilities - myth ,faith, and dogma were challenged, but not completely abandoned. Newton is a noted historical alchemist; not the father of modern science. Had he lived another 100-200 years, he would have been burnt at a scientific stake.
The Enlightenment smashed the idea of the unknown and replaced the dogma and control of the Church with the dogma and control of math and metrics. Art turned into marketing. Music into jingles. Man and the meaning of life into electrical and chemical impulses. And the mysteries of a magical universe were turned into the stuffy study of a dead, stupid, mechanical universe. Analog, with it's imperfections and gradated dial settings dependent upon experience, empirical and metaphor was replaced by digital logic - a binary this or that based upon calculation.
Look at the irrationality you laid out in these terms. LoTE voting is a mathematical expression alone - binary logic. It is observational, materialistic "science". And you can actually look and see the data: Nader, Stein, etc. There are 2 choices. Everything else is alchemical, pseudoscientific bullshit.
What is not accounted for is the unknown, the anecdote, the alchemical nature of humans in groups and political and pop culture - that shit is reality, or as close as we can get. There is no restarting or defragmenting the computer once it is corrupted. A scratched vinyl album or magnetized analog tape are ruined forever.
Analog has an answer that has a remainder or has several answers. A remainder or several answers in digital simply does not compute and must be purged from memory to allow the machine to function. IMO this comes directly from the Enlightenment and the triumph of material scientific dogma over the alchemical curiosity of the Renaissance.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
I considered posting a similar comment k9.
Then the wheels came off the trolley. Belief and faith have replaced rational and critical thinking. Willful ignorance is a badge of honor among a large portion of our population. I watched all of this happen but can’t figure out how.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
Magic. The People Running the Show Completely Believe nt
in magic and use it to their advantage. The rest of us numbskulls think that magic is bullshit and buy the "TRUTH" of material science; to not do so is to be irrational. Who wants to be that?
Science is pitched as the Truth these days, and as such is no longer science. It's a religion used for hegemony of the mind.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Yes, we are speaking the very same language, here.
This is a topic not often entertained. It requires a lot of forethought to become fluent. On the other hand, I use the compact language of this metaphor freely here. This community is pretty intuitive overall. I am so glad you can grapple with it.
I've spent a lifetime, it seems like, on this issue. Some time back it dawned on me that the intricate foundation of conscious evolution had been interrupted and fragmented, globally. Shattered. I place the time that this occurred about 400 years ago. The Age of Enlightenment had been moving right along in a natural insightful way. The Jesuits had just gone global and were in motion, performing technology and philosophy transfers throughout the world. Most importantly, they were carrying vital mathematical treatises from East to West. Those were soon recast as Pascal's triangle and Leibniz harmonic triangle, and the binary numbering system. This transfer was occurring in a world where people had evolved in geographic isolation for tens of thousands of years. Profoundly different races had formed possessing differently oriented brains with unique obsessions and gifts. The Franciscans did their part, working out the linguistics and semantics. They also brought back all manner of scientific inventions originating in China.
This all seemed innocent enough, no? It must have appeared very curious and novel, like a "box of amusing magic tricks from the Orient." At that time, the Chinese were about 700 to 1,000 years more scientifically advanced than the Europeans — in every known category. The Europeans had just invented printing, but the Chinese had been printing since 200BC and using moveable type since 1100AD. Printing is an evolutionary milestone that speeds everything up and China had a 700-year head start. The gap was dangerously wide. The Vatican was so hungry for new souls, that they could not see it or stop it in time. Intellectual chaos ensued (a largely unwritten history). Within a year or two, the gifted mathematicians of the West had stepped through the looking glass. Leibniz invented the binary numbering system, but it would be centuries before the computer that could use it arrived. Pandora's box was open.
Meanwhile, the West had been standing on the threshold of spiritual evolution. The famous intellectual mystics of the West had emerged. This Age would bring spiritual maturity and calm. It would instill the long-view of an evolved consciousness into the collective mind of Western civilization. People would step beyond their animal natures at will, and expand into a larger realm of possibilities. This is the essential missing Age that had been shattered by the Industrial Revolution and the demands of capitalism.
The industrial revolution, the technological revolution arrived about a hundred years too early, with life-threatening, planet-threatening consequences. We are the kind of civilization that would drop a second atomic bomb on Japanese civilians just to see it go "boom!" We are unfit to lead the world anywhere. We have an emergent but fully un-evolved spiritual and moral center. We do not feel the whole of life within ourselves.
That is my working theory. And like you, I don't think it can be fixed. At least not without a lot of psychedelics.
IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"
That DKos conversation in the comments section is a sad riot...
But there are bright spots....
https://www.dailykos.com/comments/1821063/72364894#comment_72364894
It appears that there are still some people over there bucking the nonsense. Since even mentioning Jill Stein on that site could get you kicked off, the irony of a whole diary about her is pretty stark.
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Oh Fishtroller — I took your bait and looked
Ten minutes of my life I won’t get back.
I’m kidding, of course, because looking every once in a while can be entertaining, or at least a good reminder of how nutty that place is. Was it always like this? Wow. An echo chamber of insanity and rabid hypocrisy.
First, a post about how Russia caused people to vote for Jill Stein, claiming “America” was “attacked” and is now “at war” (with russsia, presumably) because Hillary was “robbed” ...
Then the comment section, where a large majority appears to think the author means that democrats are at war, with Jill Stein, and with anyone who voted for her. The hatred and vitriol is astounding. They apparently do not believe that voting is a freedom in this country that people can exercise (or not) according to their own beliefs and conscience. If you voted for anyone other than Hillary, you are the enemy.
It’s like they need to periodically gather around and burn Jill Stein in effigy, and hold a ceremonial two-minute hate against her supporters and anyone who refused/refuses to support/vote for Hillary Clinton.
The very idea that votes are supposed to be earned and won by a political candidate is verboten.
While they are busy hating everyone who does not vote for democrats, this is how they treat such potential voters:
Presumably the poster meant site’s rules — hahaha, perfect typo however. That’s a copy pasta directly from the comment.
This is when I snapped out of my trance of wonder at how they behave and think. Hillary herself just said the same thing recently: “if you don’t want to support democrats, go somewhere else.”
But if we follow their edict and take ourselves and our votes elsewhere, they hate us! And think we’re under the control of Russia, who is why many of us turn away from democrats!
They are pushing us away, vigorously. Then blaming us for leaving, and insisting that Putin made us do it.
Wow, that was like a twilight zone episode.
Merry Christmas Eve, FT and all.
I’m so thankful for this little spot of light where group think is not directed by “the state’s rules.”
If DKos was always like that, I missed it....
but I don't think it was. I think the 2016 election cycle was the point where the Mad Max's of the world started filtering in. However, the dictatorship tendencies of Wee Mama were always there. The fact that she has moved up the ranks in terms of power with the DKos staff has also made things worse. Did you notice that she now throws the f word around liberally? Must be fun in her church! I was basically banned for not buying the Russiagate stuff and for pointing the finger at the CIA. She said that line of opinion was a right wing narrative, which is another no-no along with third party voting. Did I tell you that I had a friendship damaged on Facebook because I defended third party voting and challenged this friend when she posted that crappy meme from Wil Wheaton.....http://politicalprof.tumblr.com/post/161442085973/this-is-actually-a-rea...
It has gotten really mean in DNC-world and DKos is a definite reflection of that. They have no idea what the concept of democracy/freethought really entails.
Have a lovely and peaceful holiday season. We threw our first Solstice Party. It was fun!
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Oh, and Markos tweeted this...
What’s tragic is that a real number of Bernie (and Jill Stein) supporters happily let themselves be used by Russia to undermine our democracy
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Real-world translation of TOP psychosis:
They Upset Our Glorious Plan to Install Queen Hillary I.
Neither Kos nor any of them would recognize "democracy" if it bit them on the ass.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.