Doom, Sweet Doom
I freaking love this article, so I thought I would share. The author is Peter Watts, I haven't run across his work before. This post is mostly excerpts, I don't really have a lot to add. Go read the original. Come for the style, stay for the substance.
The Adorable Optimism of the IPCC
It’s been a couple of weeks now since the IPCC report came out. You know what it says. If the whole damn species pulls together in a concerted effort “without historical precedent”— if we start right now, and never let up on the throttle— we just might be able to swing the needle back from Catastrophe to mere Disaster. If we cut carbon emissions by half over the next decade, eliminate them entirely by 2050; if the species cuts its meat and dairy consumption by 90%; if we invent new unicorn technologies for sucking carbon back out of the atmosphere (or scale up extant prototype tech by a factor of two million in two years) — if we commit to these and other equally Herculean tasks, then we might just barely be able to keep global temperature from rising more than 1.5°C.[1] We’ll only lose 70-90% of the word’s remaining coral reefs (which are already down by about 50%, let’s not forget). Only 350 million more urban dwellers will be exposed to severe drought and “deadly heat” events. Only 130-140 million will be inundated. Global fire frequency will only increase by 38%. Fish stocks in low latitudes will be irreparably hammered, but it might be possible to save the higher-latitude populations. We’ll only lose a third of the permafrost.
I'm astounded (not really) at the YouTube talking heads who, if they mentioned the report at all, seemed to interpret it as there being only 12 more years to kick the can down the road before we have to, no kidding this time, get started.
If we don’t pull all these things off— if, for example, we only succeed in meeting the flaccid 2°C aspirations of the Paris Accords— then we lose all the coral. We lose the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Greenland Ice Shelf (not that it isn’t already circling the bowl, of course). Twice as many people suffer “aggravated water scarcity” than at 1.5°C; 170% more of the population deals with fluvial flooding. The increase in global wildfire frequency passes 60% and keeps going. Marine fisheries crash pole to pole. The number of species that loses at least half their traditional habitat is 2-3 times higher than would have been the case at 1.5°C.
And yet, none of this factors in Global Dimming. That's the "damned if you do" half of this that doesn't get talked about.
Remember last year’s New York Magazine article by David Wallace-Wells? It came pretty close to outlining the fate we’ve made for ourselves, closer than any bureaucrat or politician has ever dared. Remember the pile-on that happened in its wake? Activists and allies all decryig the story as hyperbolic and defeatist? Remember the Hope Police insisting that we had to inspire, not doomsay?
Where are they now?
One of them is Michael Mann, Climate Science superstar. Back in 2017 he shat on Wallace-Wells with everyone else: “There is no need to overstate the evidence, especially when it feeds a paralyzing narrative of doom and hopelessness.” And now here he is, just a few days ago: admitting that even this stark doomsday report is “overly conservative“, that it understates the amount of warming that’s already occurred. And Mann is still an optimist compared to, say, Prof. Jem Bendell, who argues that society is bound for inevitable collapse just a decade down the road and that we might as well start grieving now and avoid the rush. (He even wrote up a paper to that effect, but the policy journal he sent it to wouldn’t publish it until he rewrote it to be less “disheartening”.)
The Hope Police. Gotta love it.
The hope police, they live inside of my head
The hope police, they come to me in my bed
The hope police, they're coming to arrest me, oh, no
Optimistic or not, this latest report is unprecedented by IPCC standards. It effectively offers, as The Tyee points out, a simple choice between Catastrophe and Disaster. It does, as a thoroughly-vindicated Wallace-Wells proclaims, give us “permission to freak out“.
How have the World’s Leaders responded ... accomplished exactly fuck-all beyond one side of the aisle yelling Think of the Children! while the other yelled Think of The Economy! ... Individual actions can’t fix things: the very scale of the problem guarantees that institutional responses have always been necessary. ... Sure, the Neolibs conned you. Because you wanted to be conned.
Reap the whirlwind, you miserable fuckers. May your children choke on it.
There's more. I've already quoted to excess. Check it out and enjoy.
Comments
Happy Halloween! Energy corps[e] cold dead hands....
just don't want to let go .
A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.
I’m supporting I-1631
But I’m not happy about how regressive it is. The previous attempt (I-732) at least made the redistribution automatic by reducing the sales tax. I-1631 does it via a panel of community advocates, and I hope that works out.
Still I’m voting for it and telling everyone else to vote for it too for one simple reason: unless we can assert our sovereignty over these bloodsuckers, we are doomed.
I’m also telling people that no matter what their #1 issue is, climate is more important. Women’s rights? Think about what pre industrial (or pre agricultural) life was like for women. Ditto any other marginalized group. Environment? Humans have been hell on ecosystems for 50,000 years and are as hardy as cockroaches, so collapse won’t save anything.
Climate is not an “environmental” issue - it is an agricultural issue. It is about human survival, not saving some fuzzy photogenic critters. We will hopefully get that too if we manage to solve the problem, but if we don’t solve it, don’t imagine that life will be sweetness and light for the surviving wildlife.
So please vote for climate. The only chance anything has is to take the power back from these greedy bastards. The alternative is millennia of misery for both our descendants and the other creatures who will be stuck with us.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
We can't really vote for climate yet.
No, there isn't.
The real questions are: what kind of society will be able to produce physical climate change mitigation? And how do we get that kind of society?
“The loyal Left cannot act decisively. Their devotion to the system is a built-in kill switch limiting dissent.” - Richard Moser
"what kind of society will be able to produce
physical climate change mitigation?" Germany comes to mind.
"And how do we get that kind of society?"
I think we threw the baby out with the bathwater when we immigrated to America, and might need longer than is possible to restore the balance. I know that's no answer, or of any help on a profound level, so somehow we have to find it in the mundane, which at this point is looking quite profound.
I don’t know how to get there
And I certainly don’t know how to get there in the next two weeks! So for now I’m pushing voting.
These initiatives are not enough (and there are at least three others I’m aware of) but taking a moment to vote for them will at least slow the damage a bit.
More to your question (and part of my point), asserting the sovereignty of the people over these financial powers is a step towards changing the economic order to one more compatible with survival.
I didn’t mention jobs as an issue voters get distracted by, but ask these same people what sort of job they would have if we crash our agriculturally based civilization? How would they put food on the table? This is the conversation I’m trying to encourage. It leads naturally to the kind of society we need to combat the crisis. Or at least it’s the only path I see right now.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
The greatest pandemic
would be one that caused the sterilization of all humans.
There would be billions less left to suffer the inevitable fate that mother nature is gearing up for.
We all bought it. We all own it.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
“Nightmare for Future Reference” by Stephen Vincent Benet (1938)
Think of other species that outstrip their habitat,
None show collective restraint, and neither will we.
This can't end well.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
Individual restraint and moderation is remarkable,
but collectively it’s virtually inconceivable. Humans are (collectively) no more forward thinking than the yeast that gives its life to make our beer; drowning in the byproducts of its own consumption.
We’ll, that’s enough of this Debbie Downer negativity. We’ll all feel better with a full belly and lots of new stuff. Let’s go shopping at the mall!
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
Grim, but very funny
Great article. Considered adding it to my climate/voting facebook post but it would be too much for potential readers. Did link to the Prof. Jem Bendell report though.
And that is the weird thing. Right now it is beautiful outside. We are having those climate change induced rain bombs today, but it is still a lovely day.
I am sitting here in my shipping container music studio with the very naughty weiner dog, Toby. Four big windows to watch the storm show. Very pleasant.
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
The problem can be fixed
I'm working on scoping it out. Basically all of the carbon released since industrialization has to be sequestered, plus a bit more to start re-forming ice. And we need zero CO2 energy sources. The only reason that I am doing this exercise is that I want something to say when everyone realizes that we are truly doomed.
In the last four ice ages the CO2 varied from 180 ppm at the coldest point to 280 ppm at the warmest inter-glacial periods. That produced average surface temperatures that were about 10 degrees C warmer from ice age minimum to inter-glacial maximum. We are now at 410 ppm CO2 and increasing by 30 ppm per decade. Eventually the CO2 will cause a total climate catastrophe and a complete failure of human civilization. The only good news is that the Earth has so much thermal mass, especially in the oceans that the final temperature increase will take a few centuries. But we are so aggressively increasing CO2 and causing significant and irreversible state changes that we will be extremely screwed somewhere along the way. Most of the IPCC models assume negative carbon emissions, sequestration. Large scale crop decreases are predicted at over 2 degrees C, but this is only based on projected temperature increases. The bigger problem along the way will be climate chaos, that is, there will be no consistent, predictable weather to support large scale agricultural planting, growth and harvest. We are already seeing this.
I suspect that part of the problem in getting this message across is that people experience large temperature changes as part of normal weather patterns. So therefore small average temperature increases are not a problem. This is scientifically inaccurate. Average temperatures play a very big part in climate and climate state. This is a physical phenomena that people cannot intuitively appreciate. Weather is already being significantly changed due to a state change in the Arctic, that is large open areas of ocean changing the albedo. This is altering the jet streams and causing longer and more intense weather cycling. One statement that I heard about seal level rise that really stuck home to me is that this is a continuous, unstoppable process. Look at the climate crisis as one big unstoppable process and you should feel a proper internal panic.
Stop fooling people ---- we must put back all of the carbon dioxide released since industrialization. Right now that is about 844 gigatons in the atmosphere. We are currently burning about 100 million barrels of oil per day, and trillions of cubic meters of CH4 every year. My point is that the problem is massive and if you are serous about solving the problem then these are the numbers that you must work with, otherwise your just fooling around.
Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.
This . . .
Great comment.
I already feel the climate chaos, because not only do we have hotter summers, but colder winters in this part of Texas. Gardeners need to be ready to replant often and maybe eat differently every year. And I still think that a good sized underground greenhouse would be good. I don't have the financial means for such a thing, however. It will be "hail mary" gardening because you will never know what might work.
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
Just the other day,
my mother -- who has only one child and always hoped I'd have some of my own (I haven't, and won't, much to her historical discontent) -- said: "I am actually glad that I don't have grandchildren."
So sad where we're headed. After many years of seriously taking "personal responsibility" for the planet -- diligently reducing, reusing and recycling -- I'm giving myself permission to stop feeling guilty. It's not my use of a rare plastic straw that's the problem. And telling people to cut those straws from their consumption is a calculated redirection from the actual causes of the Earth's imminent demise.
In a different scenario, I'd be panicked about not having enough savings to retire (I don't). Now, I figure I should embrace each day as an opportunity to connect with loved ones, experience every adventure that I can, and appreciate the gifts of having been alive at a time when we at least had optimism for the future. If I spend all my (meager) money in the meantime, so be it. Where will it even get me otherwise?
My mom likely won't be here in 12 years (though, all this doom-and-gloom aside, I truly hope I'm wrong for my own selfish reasons). As for me: I and my partner will still be of an age where another 20 or 25 years of life wouldn't be out of the question. And we're active and healthy enough that in an ideal world, we could look forward to those years.
If I'm being honest, however, I'm not at all looking forward to living through post-2030 times. How fucking depressing.
You're right about not feeling guilty for this
Exxon knew about climate change in the 70's and instead of spending money for finding ways to stop it they spent money on finding ways to hide it from becoming known.
I put the blame for it on the Exxons of the world and on the PTB that have spent centuries trying to conquer the world. The destruction from the bombings, the incredible use of fossil fuels while trying to conquer lands full of it and all of the other destructive things they have done without our consent!
But I will still pat myself on my back when I put recyclable items in the blue bin. Hey. At least I'm not adding to the problem..
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt
If it's really that hopeless, do more than commiserate.
If 9/11's any indication, terrorism works great if you're halfway trying.
The people who are to blame for this have names, addresses, and families.
I don't understand why NOBODY's made a single attempt on the Koch brothers
- let alone go full-Romanov on the whole family.
I'm at an age where the future still matters to me (to say nothing of my
far grander ambitions and hopes), but so does the past. As one is being nixed
ahead of me, the other is being erased and denied behind me. Everyone and everything
feels like it's conspiring to deny I ever even existed. I feel BEYOND BEYOND cheated.
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
It's because they're rich.
I relate to your last paragraph. We were lied to our whole lives about how our future would be and are now being denied any future. I feel like I've been spinning my wheels for years. Older generations don't take us seriously about wanting to fix things, even though we're well into our 30s now and I'm sick of it.
This shit is bananas.
Plenty of us old folks take you seriously
But I guess we are not connecting with each other very well.
What should be a framework for the fixing? Even though everything looks pretty fucked up, I think we should be full force embracing and enjoying fixing, even if it is to the end. And that is the hope of emerging.
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
A framework?
It's kind of a matter of time travel and fixing sabotaged history. 9/11 changed nothing, and neither did 11/9...those are bullshit covers for erasing the 20th Century. IT changed everything.
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
I think you are right . . .
Let us transcend that bullshit and build frameworks for the future.
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
We already had it in our grasp.
As most know, the New Deal held firm until the 1980s. It was the defeating of the important system of regulations that FDR put into place to curb predatory capitalism that killed the New Deal. But so much sabotage was working in so many areas. National education standards that excluded economics plus other downgrades was a start. Then making higher education prohibitively expensive. Then the tax cut frenzy that began under Reagan, who was mentally defective in any event. That's how the Neocons saboteurs found their way into the permanent government, where they remain to this day. Union busting and asset stripping began in earnest in the 1990s, to cripple both the government and the people.
The New Deal was a complex system, but it could not hold against the sophisticated brainwashing and propaganda the Nazis brought to America after WWII. FDR died before he saw the Declaration of Human Rights established at the UN (under the guidance of his wife, Eleanor). He was the inspiration for the declaration, yet those rights never came to the US and the American people never realized they were withheld from them.
It's hard to claw back things that are abstract to the people.
Frames work
Only hopes here are for people working together. Community collectives. Open up and share with those around. Giving gifts of time, shared skills, potential needs and resources. We can build a better intra structure by working for a better neighborhood. Just saying.
question everything
I don't think we were lied to...
It's more of a "wicked step-parents" problem - and of genuinely incompatible visions.
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
@The Liberal Moonbat I sure as hell was
Technological advance will free mankind from the need to work and we will all head to the stars! How will we develop ourselves in our new leisure time?
Also: End World Hunger. End Poverty. Equality across the world. Get Off Oil.
Just a little tour of what I, perhaps along with others? thought was possible when I was a kid.
Don't get me wrong; by the time I was a teenager in the 80s, I knew bad shit was at work, and all those ideas were under assault...or being sabotaged. I just thought there would be somebody fighting for them. Somebody other than a handful of little guys.
Later it was more than a handful of little guys; it was, at various points, a whole lotta little guys. But the wealthy and well-connected, sadly, did not show up.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
I been lied too
~
~
Feel your pain
question everything
@QMS
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
I've been sorely misjudging your age
I sincerely don't believe it's a good idea to dismiss such
dreams as "lies" - this is an authentic war between Good and
Evil, and Good has been doing a lot of losing lately...but I've
seen the potential for Good in ways so few others really have.
Have faith in Chaos, is my advice on many levels. Pessimism isn't
a philosophy (unless you're Schopenhauer); it's a pathology.
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
Good vs. Evil
This shit is bananas.
Try to get out of the country.
Head back to the lands where you are indigenous, where there are many countries, many neighbors, many borders, many languages, and where the streets and alleys are a thousand years old, paved with the bones of your ancestors. There is a huge network of Americans who are returning. You can find them in the expat forums. You will find a way to stay. If you have grandparents or great grandparents from a particular country, some will offer you citizenship. There are other paths, as well. Go to university. Some are free even to foreigners.
The US is isolated and dangerous. You have no protection from an out of control government. Your destiny is limited. Go, if you can, while you can.
Easier said than done.
ETA: I guess I should've done some genealogy research when I lived in Salt Lake. I doubt I'd find anything helpful; I once looked at ancestry.com, which is what the Mormons use I think, and there was nothing there. It wanted me to start filling in stuff that I knew, which is pretty much fuck-all.
This shit is bananas.
@Daenerys Among the
1)the cats
2)my mom
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
@Daenerys Well, Lewis
However, if one doesn't believe in a life after death, or heaven, or God, then it is quite depressing. He's unlike Tolkien in that way: there's a lot for unbelievers in Tolkien, as well as being a lot for believers. But that's what happens when you write the greatest work of moral fiction in a century.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
@The Liberal Moonbat Well, OK...maybe
But how did they let the psychopaths get in charge in the first place?
Out of curiosity, how old did you think I was?
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Naturally, I judged you by your avatar...
Speaking of which, what is this "Macedonian Signal" you refer to? I am now picturing Alexander the Great conquering the world with the power of ham radio or something....
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
@The Liberal Moonbat I clearly
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Can anyone answer this for me?
This is from the link to the NY mag article discussed in the linked article.
Why was this carbon released? What was the event that made it happen? I've seen people referring to it when they say that climate change isn't man made.
I highly recommend reading that article too. The author writes about the different ways that climate change is going to make the planet unlivable. This is from the first one that discusses heat. The others don't look pleasant either. Especially the one on global pandemics.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt
Volcanic activity?
This shit is bananas.
Think of it as a deflation of the cushion
~
between earth and sun. The atmosphere that has protected us from the solar radiation is sickened by excessive carbon. The sensitive balance is being lost. How that relates to conditions several million years ago is academic. What science tells about now and what needs to be done is anathema to the generation of wealth for the rulers. Don't blame it on the dinosaurs.
question everything
Eh?
I'm not. I know what's causing this now. I don't know what caused it 252 million years ago hence my question. I thought maybe someone would know what did.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt
It's written in the stones
Carbon dating techniques can verify conditions going back many millions of years ago. Try a science source. Hopefully without a religious bent. The dinosaur quip was meant to be funny.
question everything
it's disolving faster than...
and there's no where to hide. No where. Rant as you will, cry in your beer, have your last dinner as the ship goes down. buh bye. But wait, don't forget to be here now.
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