Trump is not good for the GOP

President Trump's approval rating with Republicans has never been higher.
While that appears to be a good thing for Republicans at face value, it is in fact a sign of weakness.

From the beginning of the Trump administration the oldest Americans, those aged 50 and over, have consistently given Trump his highest approval ratings while young people aged 18–29 have consistently given him his lowest approval ratings....
A political party that can’t attract young people, especially in a generation that is as big as the Millennial generation—America’s largest demographic group—is not a party with a very bright future. So although Trump, while focusing on the base, has made the Republican Party his, come November it may not be as much of an advantage.

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Obviously the GOP has a generational problem and Trump isn't helping.
That is a long-term problem.

However, Trump is also a short-term problem for the GOP as well.

On the poll’s congressional ballot question—“Which party’s candidate are you more likely to vote for in your congressional district?”—the GOP trails by just six points, 45 percent to 39 percent. But when the question is framed around Trump—“Do you want to elect a Congress that mostly cooperates with President Trump, or one that mostly stands up to President Trump?”—the gap more than triples. Fifty-five percent of voters choose a Congress that stands up to Trump. Only 34 percent choose a Congress that cooperates with Trump. A six-point deficit becomes a 21-point deficit...
Trump blames Democrats for obstructing legislation, but Americans aren’t buying it. In the YouGov poll, a 41 percent plurality says Congress has accomplished less than usual (only 8 percent say Congress has accomplished more than usual), and these disappointed respondents blame congressional Republicans rather than Democrats, 45 percent to 19 percent.

The reason that Trump's approval ratings with Republicans is so rock-solid is because he has chased a significant number of moderates out of the party.
This accounts for all of those "never has the country been so divided" articles.

Just because the GOP is shrinking doesn't mean that these voters are fleeing to the Democrats.
Nothing could be further from the truth.

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Independent identification is just one percentage point below the high of 43% in 2014. Twenty-nine percent of Americans identify themselves as Democrats and 27% as Republicans.
...With a nearly record-high proportion of Americans identifying as independents in 2017, it follows that identification with the two major parties is near the historical low for each. In fact, the 29% of Americans who identify as Democrats ties 2015 as the lowest in Gallup's trend for that party. Republican identification (27%) is two points above its low of 25% in 2013.

It looks like the GOP has moved further to the right than conservative voters. The multi-generational Republican tactic of doubling-down at every turn has played itself out.
Democrats are also in trouble, but are in less trouble than the GOP. The progressive base is pushing back against a corrupt leadership, and it threatens the Democrats with the possibility of actually standing for something useful. But for now, the cowardly Dem leadership is still in control.

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k9disc's picture

Big Tent and became Democrats.

Drumpf is being propped up as a "get out of jail free" card for the Republicans given the Democratic Party's joy at having the Bushes, Boots, and the Kristols in the fold. So gross.

GOP will lose and failed conservative policies will become the ONLY option (again or still, take your pick).

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Hawkfish's picture

@k9disc

Lori Stegmann just switched last week. With any luck enough of them will switch so that the Dems can finish moving where they want to be. Then the millenials and real leftists can finally have a real party of their own.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

k9disc's picture

@Hawkfish

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Hawkfish's picture

@k9disc

She’s their target demographic: wealthy middle aged woman.

/snark

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Lookout's picture

I can't speak about the remainder of the US, but here in the TAG tri-states (TN,AL,GA) it is very red. The gov race in GA between Abrams (black woman) and Kemp (Trumpeteer) might be a bellwether. From what I hear, a blue-wave is a dream...at least in the south. We'll see what we see.

I really think the more interesting question is when will the dollar or market tank. I remember a decade ago when McCain declared the economy is basically sound just before the crisis (and the election). In part that statement helped usher in Obomber, the bank supporter.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

The Aspie Corner's picture

@Lookout He's another LibertAryan (Glenn Jacobs, or Kane for those who follow WWE) who ran on the Repig ticket (no surprises here). At least when Minnesota elected a professional wrestler he was a half-decent guy.

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Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.

Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.

Lily O Lady's picture

@Lookout

right after Kemp won the GOP primary and have been running ceaselessly ever since. Abrams ads are not keeping up with the 30 Seconds Hate aired by the GOP. Obama has endorsed her, but he never carried the state. Local Dems have become much more active of late, but a lot of Republicans would have to change party identities for Dems to be successful.

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"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

Trump is getting a sympathy bump. Slick proved that's real.
Standing up to Trump is a winner, but who's gonna do that? Who's gonna believe that?
Demographics will save us. Maybe in fifteen or twenty years. Demographics said that Hillary's Magic Mexicans were going to come out of the eather and save her. Didn't happen. Maybe because she supported death squads in central america and called for the deportation of children who managed to escape? So now millenials are going to come riding over the ridgeline and chase away the villains? For who? The people who've been telling them all their lives to not hope for anything, health care, deacent pay, a deacent job, a life without dispair? They're gonna save you?

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On to Biden since 1973

boriscleto's picture

But when the question is framed around Trump—“Do you want to elect a Congress that mostly cooperates with President Trump, or one that mostly stands up to President Trump?”—the gap more than triples. Fifty-five percent of voters choose a Congress that stands up to Trump. Only 34 percent choose a Congress that cooperates with Trump.

The Republican incumbent John Katko mentions how "independent" and "bipartisan" he is in every breath. After all, he only voted for the Trump agenda 93% of the time. He voted against the tax cut before he voted for it...It's great for America even though it screws his constituents...

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" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "