Yes, Trump could win reelection
I think the odds are against The Donald, but then I thought that last year too.
You know who correctly predicted Trump's victory? Michael Moore, and he's got something to say again.
In an interview with Fast Company on Monday, Moore said he predicts Trump will win a second term if he runs for reelection. "I should say re-appointed, because we will have an even larger population that will vote against him in 2020," he noted. "But he will win those electoral states as it stands now."
Moore predicted that Trump would win in 2016, despite poll results that weren't much more favorable toward him than his current approval ratings are. Last September, a Washington Post poll found that 62 percent of Americans didn't think he was qualified to be president. A month earlier, an NBC poll found that 64 percent did not find Trump to be trustworthy, to have the temperament to serve as president, to share their values, or to care about people like them. Yet Trump's unexpected electoral victories in crucial states including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin won him the White House.
In those states, Trump now has approval ratings between 33 and 36 percent, as NBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki noted last week—similar to how he polled there during the campaign.
In other words, all those "Trump's poll numbers are cr*p" diaries on the GOS don't mean sh*t.
The problem, both then and now, has been the Democrats. Not Trump.
The fact is that the Dems poll numbers are terrible.
The poll — conducted from Aug. 17-22 with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points — also found:
Democrats remain the less disliked party, with a negative 33-52 percent favorability rating among American voters, including a negative 25-56 percent among independent voters.
Republicans have a negative 25-63 percent favorability, including a negative 17-68 percent among independent voters.
Yes, the GOP is worse, but not a lot worse. And nothing like what you would read in liberal echo chambers.
As for the media, which is overwhelmingly against Trump, well, that might not be enough to save the Dems either.
The good news for the White House is that by a 55-40 margin, respondents say they disapprove of the way the media covers the president. Some of that, of course, is probably people who think the media is too soft on Trump. But by and large it seems like Trump is basically convincing people of his core thesis about the media: They should be nicer to him.
On the other hand, the very same poll says that by a 62-35 margin, respondents disapprove of how Trump talks about the media. And by a 54-36 margin, people say they trust the media over Trump “to tell you the truth about important issues.”
In short, it seems that Trump’s media bashing has been a negative-sum game that’s eroded confidence in the press while also eroding confidence in Trump.
The good news is that the Dems have an Ace in the hole - Bernie Sanders.
Bernie the only politician in America with a positive rating with the general public.
Yes, Bernie could probably win both the Dem nomination and GOP nomination at the same time.
So it's a good thing the Dem establishment isn't so stupid as to reject Bernie and instead embrace yet another corporate Dem, amirite?
Gawd, that would be embarrassingly idiotic if the Dems did that. It's a good thing that absolutely no one is that stupid.
Comments
He seems to be running on a social agenda
I know he wants to be the big CEO president. We'll see about that. In the meantime, he's really working the social issues in what appears to be overt gestures to the rightwing ideologues. He's got their loyalty, to hell with the mainstream GOP.
On the left side, I just had a thought. How rich would it be to see Hillary run - and lose - again.
“He may not have gotten the words out but the thoughts were great.”
The good news is that the
Dems would prefer a second Trump term to that.
Are you sure about that?
he seems to be residing in their pocket atm.
Medicare for all could do Trump in.
Jobs and infrastructure emphasis. End the wars plan.
IF Dems would steer clear of total emphasis on identity politics. Heh. Phat chance.
A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.
DO, Dems going full force
on identity politics. One of the Vice-Chairs of the DNC was O's minority outreach coordinator.
Plus, a piece came to my phone this morning--the Dem Party Leadership is not going to make MFA a 'litmus test.' I'll post the interview with Bernie, later this week.
And, they're going one step further--they won't support any 'progressive' challengers who run against Conservadems. So far, that's Joe Manchin and Heidi Heitkamp (in the Senate) who have declared challengers.
Frankly, it sounds like the 2018 Dem Party election cycle will be more of the same--if not worse. This election cycle they've very heavily recruited both military vets, and entrepreneurs, in order to compete in the states that DT carried. *Sigh*
Mollie
"I think dogs are the most amazing creatures--they give unconditional love. For me, they are the role model for being alive."--Gilda Radner
"If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went."--Will Rogers
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Progressives will have to win some primaries
...before the Dem establishment will treat them with any respect.
Just like Jeremy Corbyn and the Blairites in the UK Labour Party.
Do you mean democrat or Democrat? Articulate
please.
Rec'd!!
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
@gjohnsit "learn" is the wrong
They will simply adapt and try to both infiltrate the progressive ranks with phoneys as well as up the ante to try to keep progressives down.
They respect the enemy - we are their enemy - but we had better not delude ourselves that they'll ever show us any respect.
If the election were
held today he likely wins. Likely even a year from now. 2020? Still too close to call, as much as the Dems want to give it away. And, as much as the tRumpster appears to fuck up, step on his d!ck, he seems to emerge unscathed. A truly Teflon Don. How long that lasts... but, he's pretty good at sidestepping the doggie doo.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
I have started to believe
that it may not matter on a macro level who runs and wins. I don't think the status quo is going to hold more than a few more years. The best we might be able to do is soften the crash with some Bernie seat belts. Still going to be like a formula one slow mo tire burning, smokin hot, fiberglass crack up. Many of those drivers walk away...just not their cars. Brave New World
The recent non-decision decision
re the class action against the DNC just made me angrier at the Democrats. I'm sure I'm not alone.
Given the Dems'
obvious disinclination to win or use power effectively for anyone outside of their pathetic DC clique, this could well happen.
Welcome to the gravitational effects of the dark hole that is The Duopoly.
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
They will, of course,
blame it on Bernie and the Bros. Again.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
Yep
This is just as true today as it was after Herheinous lost to the worst candidate in the history of America.
Was Humpty Dumpty pushed?
delicious vs. snark
Wouldn't that be just delicious? Cat, I'd looooove to see that!
You forgot the snark tag!
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
The Dems are idiots.
They're too busy running against their own constituents to win elections. Sure, Dipshit is Rick Scott and his clique on steroids, but the Dems are all too happy to enable the fuckers.
Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.
Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.
Sure he could win.
Msm provide anything but an accurate, unbiased reading of the public mood. Or an accurate reading of much else, for that matter. TPTB, including of course the big news distributors, want Trump gone, like yesterday. But with so much unrelenting, non-stop anti-Trump coverage, I think they have been badly over-playing their hand. Very few of Trump's supporters believe a word they say anymore. As for the various public opinion polls, these things can change practically overnight.
native
Well, it's worth noting that I would trust MSM over Trump
As a general rule, I'd probably agree with that. But man, that's like saying, "I trust MSM 2% and Trump 0%". That hardly means I have any trust in MSM.
More, I already know Trump is a liar. The problem is so are all the neolibs. So while I would readily agree that Trump seems to lie compulsively even when it doesn't matter, I'm not sure how that would change my vote. They're going to offer up Harris and I'm going to vote Green.
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
Bernie Sanders Could Absolutely Win the 2020 Election
If Trump stays on the present course - that is, throwing 10 balls up in the air every day, each more outrageous than the other, and with the media and Democrats not knowing how to react effectively - he will continue to dominate the news, particularly on cable television. This has been true for over two years. The reason Democrats don't get any traction is that they are always reacting to him, rather than putting forth a positive agenda.
The only way someone will beat him is to frame the debate based on issues, and not constantly focussing on how bad Trump is. We already know that he is a pseudo-Fascist and incapable of leading the country, or helping the have-nots of society. Absent a viable, credible, and ethical alternative (read: Bernie Sanders), Trump will probably get a second term.
It is as simple as that.
A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
I agree with JH, but I also don't believe
that, aside from 'talking up' MFA, the Dem Party Leaderships plans to even fake running on a liberal/progressive agenda in 2018.
Oh, sorry--forget, they are talking about 'job training,' and giving employers tax credits to hire folks. Whew!
Seriously, even though I'm hearing more and more of the Dem 'talking heads' wonder out loud if there's too much talk of 'Russia, Russia!', they mostly don't commit to outlining a truly liberal agenda. At this point, I'm convinced that if Dems could help get a corporatist Establishment Republican (instead of DT) nominated in 2020, they would be completely satisfied. Just as we saw many corporatist Establishment Republicans gush over--and vote for--FSC last November.
Our bipartisan political Establishment doesn't even seem to feel the need to fake their phoniness and dishonesty, anymore.
Hey, always enjoy your graphics and cartoons!
Mollie
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
The Democrat Would Lose
Whichever Corporate Dem gets anointed will lose exactly like Her lost. Kamala Harris and Corey Booker are trial balloons who have zero street cred with the Grass Roots.
Maybe Good Ole Joe wants to set a new record for the oldest brain dead American President ever elected to serve
twoone term in office. Heck, Joe will only be 78 years young! As the former Senator fromDelawareMBNA, he's a perfect choice. He succeeded Jesse Helms on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, followed by Lugar, who Joe succeeded as Chair again and was followed by Kerry. Those are some serious foreign policy chops!Joe followed Strom Thurmond on the Senate Judiciary Committee and was followed by Richard Lugar. Almost as good of a constitutional scholar as Obama!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden
Most excellent!
"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn
Another prediction.
If Kid Rock runs, he beats Stabenow. Google Kid Rock donates 1 mil. The positive press he gets in this town is amazing.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
This is better than if he shot someone on 5th Avenue
What he and the republicans are trying to do to us is worse than Trump shooting someone.
From destroying the regulatory agencies to dismantling the social safety programs and giving the billionaires and corporations huge tax cuts, he is basically beheading the Statue of Liberty.
I'm speaking about your avatar
Was Humpty Dumpty pushed?
It's been kinda obvious since last November
First, the Republicans (and especially Trump's team) have figured out how to game the electoral college using a combination of precise voter targeting and Trump's considerable celebrity and skills as a bullshit artist.
Second, the Democrats are constitutionally incapable of running anyone other than a reliable corporate neoliberal. This will appeal to their actual electoral base in the professional/managerial class (plus those who habitually look to that class for leadership), resulting in a fairly close popular vote. Large numbers of others however, seeing little hope of relief from either candidate, will again stay home, resulting in another Trump win.
The real test comes in 2024, when Donny The T. is termed out and the GOP needs to find another bullshit artist who can pull the wool over enough people's eyes to win. That is, if there's anything left to fight over by 2024...
As bad as Trump is going, it
As bad as Trump is going, it wouldn't surprise me if he won again.
What also doesn't surprise me are the faithful citizens who would continue to pull the lever for Dems in the first place. The Dems aren't trying, they are like the hungover employee coming to work on Monday. They hit the time card and sit at their desk. Of course sitting there makes them millions.
we have to create an option
they believe it is best they can do.
Who will Markos blame
if this happens?
It's obvious that the democrats will once again rather have Trump win again than let the party move one inch to the left.
That they won't even lie and run another cretinous Obama candidate who will do exactly what he did.
Was Humpty Dumpty pushed?
Markos will punch left as always
It's what corporate Dems do.
I'll make it simple
as long as the Democratic Party exists Trump will be reelected.
Clinton and Obama have proven - unfocused personal attacks, even if accurate, only serve to strengthen the target's support.
On to Biden since 1973
That Michael Moore proposal is bad news
Pushing for states to give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner (why not just do away with the EC?) means 3rd parties are even more powerless.
And, of course, this idea is only for when a Dem gets the most votes.
I wonder though...
A lot of people assume (correctly, I believe) that the Democratic party will choose another corporate, Turd Way shill. Let's suppose for a moment, rather than giving Her another bite of the apple, which I still can't rule out, they go with Booker or Harris or any of the other names tossed around. Do people really think that the people who don't really pay attention to politics until close to an election, after four years of Trump Bad!, will turn away from the Democrats again? I'm thinking if the DNC finds themselves an Obama Pt. 2 type of person, empty suit but says all the right things. We who are paying attention know the names offered up so far are just re-branding, but will John and Jane Q. Public know or even care?
Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.
Obama v.2
Oh, you mean Kamala Harris!
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Trump vs corporate Dem could be pretty close
I think the candidate who is the best straight-talker will win the most electoral votes. Nina Turner is much more of straight-talker than Trump. Most corporate Dems are not better straight-talkers than Trump. If Hillary somehow figures out a way to be the nominee again, she will make Trump President again (if He's still around). A corporate Dem vs Pence would have much more of a chance.
Beware the bullshit factories.
Can't imagine what the violence might be like next election
Pretty certain that in order to get better, it must all come crashing down. A total economic meltdown like the USSR will be the only thing that brings the troops back home and allows for a new voice to come forward. It's going to get nastier as the MSM pushes the divide and conquer thing along. I don't want to be in the prepper camp but I now buy the long lasting canned goods (you can google them) and even SPAM when it's on sale. The real "bust" might be years out in the future but that future does not look too bright. Seems like a shame when only the anarchy that both sides seem to want will bring this thing to a head. Look how long Greece has endured economic hardship - it's going to be a really long, long process and I'm afraid that this is only the beginning... No one wants brick and mortar stores anymore and maybe the only thing keeping this country together will be the arm guards protecting the amazon delivery trucks / drones.
Peace
FN
"Democracy is technique and the ability of power not to be understood as oppressor. Capitalism is the boss and democracy is its spokesperson." Peace - FN