The Big Losers from the UK election

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 12:39pm

Obviously things didn't go the way the Tories, the pundits, and the news media thought they would.
At the same time, the Tories increased their percentage of the vote to it's highest level since 1983, and will remain in power. So it's debatable to say that the Tories are The Big Losers.

Labour failed to win the election, but at the same time they had their best showing in 16 years, and their biggest gains on record. So it's hard to say that Labour are The Big Losers.

So who did lose big?
There is a long list of Big Losers.

UKIP

Whatever Nuttall says, Ukip is finished.
Their electoral collapse was predicted in the polls, after the EU referendum result last year saw their reason for existence obliterated. But this was confirmed in real votes cast on Thursday: just two years after winning the support of a record 3.8 million in the 2015 election, they secured just 593,000 votes this time around and failed to deliver a single MP to Westminster.
In seat after seat, the purple in the TV election graphics sank below zero, a fitting tribute to a party that went to submarine depths in its search for policies of division and hate.

The Tories were the big beneficiaries of UKIP's implosion. The lion's share of those 3 million votes went to Tories, and thus kept last night from being a complete Tory debacle.

SNP

Alex Salmond and Angus Robertson were among the high-profile casualties as the SNP lost more than a third of its seats in the general election.
The party won 35 of the 59 Scottish constituencies - a fall of 21 seats from the 56 they won in 2015.
The Conservatives secured 13 seats in Scotland - the party's best performance in the country since 1983.
Labour won seven seats and the Lib Dems four. The three pro-UK parties had won just one seat each in 2015...
Deputy First Minister John Swinney admitted that the issue of a second referendum on Scottish independence had played a "significant" role in the result.

The decline of the SNP vote mostly went to Labour. However, the SNP and Labour are generally on the same side, and this split the vote in Scotland, thus allowing the Tories to slip in.

This, plus the UKIP implosion, are the two biggest factors in allowed the Tories to escape the election intact.

Rupert Murdoch

It's a bad day to be a U.K. press baron. Fleet Street's finest had lined up to endorse Theresa May ahead of an election that backfired badly for her.
Rupert Murdoch's tabloid Sun, credited for swinging elections in the past, had called on Brits to keep Jeremy Corbyn's "sinister Marxist gang" from power...
The debacle underscores how the influence of Britain's top media properties is waning. Newspaper readership has slumped over the past ten years, even if the Sun and Daily Mail still attract tens of millions of readers a month online and in print...
Voters are losing faith in established institutions: One survey published in January recorded the largest-ever drop in trust in media, government, business and non-governmental organizations. Five out of eight top U.K. papers are already seen as fairly or very right-wing, according to YouGov, which probably colors readers' views of their endorsements.

Regardless of your voting intentions, the Daily Mail and The Sun's attempt to smear Corbyn and politicise terrorism is disgusting/pathetic. pic.twitter.com/QsPaa33lho

— Will Phillips (@Monkiflops) June 7, 2017

As I pointed out recently, the UK news media lined up against Corbyn and Labour. That the British public, especially the young, rejected or ignored the propaganda is not something that will simply go away after this election. The anti-establishment trend is not finished by a long shot.
Don't kid yourself: it wasn't just Murdoch.

Great thread. Here are above screen shots in one combined pic. pic.twitter.com/h61EEWbkPB

— Ludwig W (@LudWitt) June 4, 2017

Blairites

The party’s surge in the polls is in no small part down to its left policies – which should mark the end of Blairist centrism for the party.
Corbyn’s leadership has made socialism a mainstream prospect again. And in this context it is, frankly, ludicrous to suggest that anyone else at the party’s helm would have fared better in this election: for who, other than the Corbyn leadership, would have put forward such a bold manifesto?

The neoliberal Blairites spent almost two years trying to undermine Corbyn, and they only managed to water-down the message that Labour was trying to send. Who knows how big of turnout Labour would have had without this infighting?
Nevertheless, the neoliberal centrists are now marginalized.

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Comments

Submitted by EdMass on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 12:47pm

This is hubris.

She believed the polls. Thought she could dominate.

Oh noes.

I hate to admit that I have f'd myself for decisions I have made.

Classic example.

For all you Baseball fans, and being from Boston, I give you Bill Buckner.

I was there.

Crap.

—

Prof: Nancy! I’m going to Greece!
Nancy: And swim the English Channel?
Prof: No. No. To ancient Greece where burning Sapho stood beside the wine dark sea. Wa de do da! Nancy, I’ve invented a time machine!

Firesign Theater

Stop the War!

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 5:19pm

Corbyn came so very close

@EdMass
2,227 votes

Jeremy Corbyn was just 2,227 votes away from having the chance to become Prime Minister in the general election, an analysis of marginal seats has revealed.
If the Labour leader had won seven seats narrowly taken by the Conservatives, he would have had the opportunity to form a “progressive alliance” with all other smaller parties, barring the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
...The seven constituencies won by the Conservatives over Labour with the slimmest majorities were Southampton Itchen (majority 31); Preseli Pembrokeshire (majority 314); Hastings and Rye (majority 346); Chipping Barnet (majority 353); Thurrock (345 majority); Norwich North (majority 507); and Pudsey (majority 331).

A second election

Prime Minister Theresa May plans to cling to power in a minority government propped up by votes from Northern Ireland, but Corbyn expects that fragile deal to collapse leading to a second election.
Outside the pub at the end of his road in Islington, North London, the hard left Labour leader declared that he was expecting another campaign in the near future. “We’re going to do it all again in a few months. I’ve got my train ticket,” he said. “We’re nearly there.”

Submitted by Sandino on Sun, 06/11/2017 - 2:23pm

@gjohnsit If Corbyn/Labour had

@gjohnsit If Corbyn/Labour had won, they would have a hot mess on their hands. Better a weakened Tory coalition, assuming they can get one, to clean up their mess and pay the long-term price for the upcoming brexit debacle. The solid repudiation of austerity and the destruction of NHS is an important and consequential victory. I think this result is optimal for Corbyn.

Submitted by Wink on Sat, 06/10/2017 - 1:57am

Getting beat by the

@EdMass
Mutts really had to hurt, likely left a mark.

—

the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 1:07pm

I guess Brits don't like Hillary any better than we do.

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by thanatokephaloides on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 5:05pm

True whether it's their Hillary or ours.

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

I guess Brits don't like Hillary any better than we do.

—

"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

Submitted by JekyllnHyde on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 6:09pm

Authenticity Matters

@thanatokephaloides

She was well ahead in the polls but ran a lousy campaign. Robotic, uninspiring, buttoned-up, inflexible, humorless, charmless and formulaic, she repelled voters even though she was vastly more qualified than her opponent. Sound familiar? Yes, Theresa May was the Hillary Clinton of this British general election.

Voters on both sides of the Atlantic sent their politicians a clear message. They want honesty, candor, humanity and authenticity from their representatives. They want questions answered, not dodged. They want a real conversation, not vacuous slogans. And they hate seeing their intelligence insulted.

That’s why they punish disingenuousness so harshly. link

—

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 5:37pm

Look at the DUP

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal making Trump appear moderate

As several commentators observed on Friday, the British public generally pays no attention to politics in Northern Ireland, and so might be in for a shock to discover just how extreme a party the D.U.P. is.
The party, founded by the virulently anti-Catholic preacher Ian Paisley — so much so that he once denounced Pope John Paul II to his face as “the antichrist” — includes fundamentalist Christians who believe in creationism but not climate science, and have fought to keep U.K. laws permitting both abortion and same-sex marriage from being implemented in the province.
The D.U.P. also has a history of ties to loyalist paramilitary gangs responsible for past terrorist atrocities.

The DUP is the political wing of the 18th century, a bunch of homophobic bigots, and now they have the Tories over a barrel.

— Owen Jones (@OwenJones84) June 9, 2017

"Jeremy Corbyn is weak on defence, he'll destroy our country, he's a terrorist sympathiser." You were saying? This lot endorse the DUP... pic.twitter.com/eZWIwl4kaP

— ChippingBarnetLabour (@ChippingLabour) June 9, 2017

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 6:03pm

@gjohnsit Wowee. They managed to

@gjohnsit Wowee. They managed to combine hateful self-satisfied Protestant colonialism with the same retrograde attitudes toward women and sexuality held by the Catholics!

For fuck's sakes.

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 6:10pm

It's a deal with the devil

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
This coalition will damage the Tories

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 6:16pm

@gjohnsit Good. It'll

@gjohnsit Good. It'll certainly be hard for May to position herself as any kind of feminist, after shaking hands with them, at least.

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 6:05pm

@gjohnsit Wait a minute. These

@gjohnsit Wait a minute. These are basically the guys who march around in Orange through Catholic neighborhoods yearly, right? And thug it up?

Stand to defend our native land...seriously?

It's like people who routinely go to the res and beat up Indians saying "Here I will stand to defend my native land."

Well, not quite as bad as that, since the Catholics weren't in Ireland as long as the indigenous people lived here, but pretty close!

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by gendjinn on Sat, 06/10/2017 - 10:45am

DUP were endorsed by the UDA in the election.

@gjohnsit Took them a few days to reject it, they wouldn't have but it looks like the Tories realised they may need them to form a govt and leaned on Foster to denounce it.

Another epochal election in Northern Ireland this year, wading through the results now and a dramatic realignment - the SDLP & UUP are gone, lost all their seats. It is now DUP 10, SF 7 and independent Unionist 1. In the next election the boundary changes will reduce the seats from 18 to 17 and remove the remaining Unionist gerrymander which will mean 9 Nationalist and 8 Unionist seats.

Northern Ireland is on life support and it is unlikely it will make its centenary in 1922

Boris will do for May soon And then he'll do for the Tories what Trump has done for the GOP

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 1:09pm

Globalist decline or temporary glitch?

Submitted by Dr. John Carpenter on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 1:33pm

Yep.

@Alligator Ed Too soon to start celebrating. If May had been less HRC and more Obama, what would the numbers have been?

—

Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 2:19pm

May is like HRC, the more she talks the less people like her

@Dr. John Carpenter At least she had the spine to call for toughening the stance against terrorism. Of course, the Brits would be subject to more censorship.

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 2:46pm

Continuation of a trend

@Alligator Ed
Largely overlooked in the results.

The DUP and Sinn Fein have made significant gains in Northern Ireland at the expense of the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP as voters returned to the polls for the second time in three months, electing 18 MPs in the General Election.

SDLP is(was) center-left.
UUP is(was) center-right

Sinn Fein is left-wing
DUP is right-wing

Submitted by gendjinn on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 7:16pm

Erm, that's the propaganda line from the British Govt but....

@gjohnsit it's actually quite different. The standard USA/UK govt line since 1994 has been the "moderates" are the SDLP and the UUP and the "extremes" are the DUP and SF. There is only one political question in Northern Ireland and that's the border. Voters vote for the party that they believe bests represents their interests on that question, and/or who is standing up to/sticking it to the other side most effectively.

The recent Assembly elections triggered by half a billion pound scandal created by the current leader of the DUP, resulted in a Nationalist surge that knocked Unionism out of its majority status. That put a fright into the siege mentality and so the surge for the DUP, where the TUV, UKIP, UUP and Independent Unionist vote swung largely in behind the DUP.

Sinn Fein do not take their seats in the UK parliament. That is now 7 out of 18 constituencies (will be 9 out of 17 in 2022) that are elected to a national parliament, but refuse to take their seats. Quite the effective rejection of sovereignty. Drives Unionism absolutely nuts.

May has really screwed up with this formal DUP alliance, Major had a side deal with the UUP (they are the ones that know how to use the dogwhistles that the DUP eschew) but never a formal coalition because neither he nor Molyneux wanted the wider UK public to look at Northern Ireland. Now May has made a deal with the devil that is already dragging the DUP front and center in the UK. Soon they will find out that the UK pays 10 billion sterling a year to keep NI in the Union......

Submitted by Timmethy2.0 on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 1:14pm

The pundits on ITV were predicting a new election within a year

I watched a bit of the ITV election coverage (corporate / establishment news disclaimer), in which the pundits were suggesting that the Tories will not be able to govern and a new election will need to be called within a year. Corbyn could still become Prime Minister before too long, which the World badly needs.

—

Beware the bullshit factories.

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 1:24pm

It'll be a razor-thin coalition

@Timmethy2.0
Which is fine until the first stiff breeze comes along.

Also special elections become extremely important.

The coalition is unlikely to survive five years.

Submitted by TheOtherMaven on Sat, 06/10/2017 - 5:18pm

Not so sure it will last five months n/t

@gjohnsit

—

There is no justice. There can be no peace.

Submitted by Roy Blakeley on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 1:42pm

Three points

1) I always appreciate your posts gjohnsit.

2) Corbyn is better off not being Prime Minister at the moment. May has her hands full with Brexit, the Democratic Unionists and her own party. Corbyn would have had to put together a coalition that would likely be unstable and he would have had to deal with Brexit. Now he can build support and, one hopes, win big at the next election, which will probably come before long.

3) The actual vote totals are interesting. The Conservative vote actually increased over 2 million from Cameron's win in 2015. However, the Labour vote increased almost 3 million, over 30%, from 2015. Corbyn gave UK voters something to come out to vote for and they came out and voted, particularly young people. Although this flies in the face of the DNC approach to elections, I humbly submit that if you want people to vote for you, you give them something to vote for, some policies that will make their lives better, something more than "I am not Trump."

Submitted by ggersh on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 3:50pm

May is the huge loser

she believed that she could attain authoritarian powers through
this election and become the Queen in waiting.

The real irony of it all that in forming a government with DUP
she is forming a government with terrorists, ya the kind of people
who set off bombs in the UK, also racists, anti abortion, etc.etc.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dup-manifesto-2017-summar...

The only surprising part of this election was neither barry or clinton
endorsing May, me thinks they saw it as a lose lose proposition, but I think
they had surrogates as far as people running Mays campaign.

—

I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

Submitted by HenryAWallace on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 3:53pm

Better than a Tory sweep.

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 6:06pm

@HenryAWallace Much better. Actually, I

@HenryAWallace Much better. Actually, I see this as representing ground taken by Labour--and not Tony Blair's Labour either.

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by HenryAWallace on Mon, 06/12/2017 - 10:07am

Tony Blair's Labor was DLC/Third Way.

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

In 1998, with First Lady Hillary Clinton, From began a dialogue with British Prime Minister Tony Blair and other world leaders, and the DLC brand – known as The Third Way – became a model for resurgent liberal governments around the globe.[18]

In April 1999, he hosted an historic Third Way forum in Washington with President Clinton, Prime Minister Blair, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, Prime Ministers Wim Kok of the Netherlands and Massimo D'Alema of Italy.[19]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_From#The_Democratic_Leadership_Council

Submitted by artisan on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 4:43pm

Jim Messina

Jim Messina, protege of Rahm, former deputy chief of staff for Obama, super successful chair of Hillary's super pac, on Theresa May's campaign team. Also Obama.

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 6:07pm

@artisan Not surprising at all:

@artisan Not surprising at all: the look of her campaign was exactly the same as Hillary's. Frighteningly so.

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 5:24pm

Corbyn will destory Labour!

Greatest hits

Tom Peck, a political correspondent for The Independent, wrote in 2016 that Corbyn “will lead Labour to electoral oblivion. Of that there is no doubt.” J.K. Rowling, the prominent author of the Harry Potter series of novels, predicted last year that Corbyn would bring about “the destruction of the Labour Party.”
Popular columnist Nick Cohen predicted that “Corbyn’s Labour won’t just lose. It’ll be slaughtered.” Piers Morgan even predicted the Conservatives would win a “90-100 seat majority.”

Opposition also came from senior members of Corbyn’s own party. “Jeremy’s personal ratings are the worst of any opposition leader on record — and the Labour party is suffering badly as a result,” complained Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, as he supported a challenger to Corbyn’s leadership last year.

Owen Smith, who challenged Corbyn for leadership in 2016, repeatedly argued that Corbyn’s Labour Party would be essentially a social movement that could not gain power. “We are a Labour government in waiting, not a protest movement,” he lectured Corbyn during a debate.

Zack Beauchamp of Vox.com, a popular political website in the United States, used Corbyn as an example of why left-wing economic policy supposedly can’t stop right-wing populism. “Take Britain’s Labour Party, which swung to the populist left by electing Jeremy Corbyn, a socialist who has proposed renationalizing Britain’s rail system, as its leader in 2015,” Beauchamp wrote earlier this year. “The results have been disastrous: the Brexit vote in favor of leaving the European Union, plummeting poll numbers for both Corbyn and his party, and a British political scene that is shifting notably to the right on issues of immigration and multiculturalism.”

Media Matters’s Eric Boehlert warned that “Corbyn’s been a disaster for Labour” this past January.

American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten tweeted out a Washington Post article claiming that Corbyn’s ascendance would result in a worse result than 2015, when the Conservatives won a clear majority over Labour. “Lessons to be learned…” she added.

One-time Obama senior adviser David Axelrod said in an interview with the former president that the “Labor Party just sort of disintegrated in the face of their [2015] defeat and move so far left that it’s, you know, in a very — in a very frail state,” calling the process “Corbynization.” Obama seemed to agree with assessment, saying that “the Democratic Party has stayed pretty grounded in fact and reality.” Contrasting Bernie Sanders to Corbyn, Obama assured Axelrod that the same process wouldn’t happen in the United States because “Bernie Sanders is a pretty centrist politician relative to Corbyn or relative to some of the Republicans.”

Submitted by jim p on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 6:31pm

Thanks for the biggest laugh

@gjohnsit I had today. “the Democratic Party has stayed pretty grounded in fact and reality.”

Greatest hits Tom Peck, a political correspondent for The Independent, wrote in 2016 that Corbyn “will lead Labour to electoral oblivion. Of that there is no doubt.” J.K. Rowling, the prominent author of the Harry Potter series of novels, predicted last year that Corbyn would bring about “the destruction of the Labour Party.” Popular columnist Nick Cohen predicted that “Corbyn’s Labour won’t just lose. It’ll be slaughtered.” Piers Morgan even predicted the Conservatives would win a “90-100 seat majority.” Opposition also came from senior members of Corbyn’s own party. “Jeremy’s personal ratings are the worst of any opposition leader on record — and the Labour party is suffering badly as a result,” complained Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, as he supported a challenger to Corbyn’s leadership last year. Owen Smith, who challenged Corbyn for leadership in 2016, repeatedly argued that Corbyn’s Labour Party would be essentially a social movement that could not gain power. “We are a Labour government in waiting, not a protest movement,” he lectured Corbyn during a debate. Zack Beauchamp of Vox.com, a popular political website in the United States, used Corbyn as an example of why left-wing economic policy supposedly can’t stop right-wing populism. “Take Britain’s Labour Party, which swung to the populist left by electing Jeremy Corbyn, a socialist who has proposed renationalizing Britain’s rail system, as its leader in 2015,” Beauchamp wrote earlier this year. “The results have been disastrous: the Brexit vote in favor of leaving the European Union, plummeting poll numbers for both Corbyn and his party, and a British political scene that is shifting notably to the right on issues of immigration and multiculturalism.” Media Matters’s Eric Boehlert warned that “Corbyn’s been a disaster for Labour” this past January. American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten tweeted out a Washington Post article claiming that Corbyn’s ascendance would result in a worse result than 2015, when the Conservatives won a clear majority over Labour. “Lessons to be learned…” she added. One-time Obama senior adviser David Axelrod said in an interview with the former president that the “Labor Party just sort of disintegrated in the face of their [2015] defeat and move so far left that it’s, you know, in a very — in a very frail state,” calling the process “Corbynization.” Obama seemed to agree with assessment, saying that “the Democratic Party has stayed pretty grounded in fact and reality.” Contrasting Bernie Sanders to Corbyn, Obama assured Axelrod that the same process wouldn’t happen in the United States because “Bernie Sanders is a pretty centrist politician relative to Corbyn or relative to some of the Republicans.”

—

Orwell: Where's the omelette?

Submitted by konondrum on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 5:45pm

I love the stuff you post here gjohnsit

But I think you are really selling this a bit short. This was pretty much the worst possible outcome for the Tories and May. This is likely a terminal blow to her political career.

She put all her chips into the pot for this one. Two weeks ago, she said if she lost just 6 seats in this election it would be a failure. She lost more than double that and acted as if nothing had happened. The press has turned on her, she's on an island of her own making.

Her only option to form a government is with the DUP which is going to be unpopular in England (including elements of her own party), and is going to deeply compromise her ability to negotiate on Brexit.

Corbyn is absolutely a big winner here as well. When was the last time anyone in the media said something nice about the guy? One by one, all of his opponents and skeptics have come forward with genuine (if stunned) praise.

Being in a strong minority position while May twists in the wind is a recipe for future Labor gains.

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 6:12pm

@konondrum she's on an island of

@konondrum she's on an island of her own making.

And it ain't the island she's supposed to be governing!

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 06/09/2017 - 10:41pm

I didn't know much about the DUP when I wrote this

@konondrum
Now that I do, I agree: this is a total disaster for the Tories.

Submitted by emorej a hong kong on Sat, 06/10/2017 - 8:25am

So true that Conservatives smarter to let Corbyn govern now

@konondrum @konondrum

This:
>"2) Corbyn is better off not being Prime Minister at the moment. May has her hands full with Brexit, the Democratic Unionists and her own party. Corbyn would have had to put together a coalition that would likely be unstable and he would have had to deal with Brexit."

... is so true that the Conservatives would have been smarter to "fail" to assemble a government, and thus force Corbyn to try.

It is very predictable that the next round of Brexit negotiations with the EU will go so badly that "no deal" will look likely, and Ms. May will have to argue publicly that this result will be better than the EU offers of a "bad deal".

As more people start being affected by, and even more start to see, the disruptiveness of "no deal", May's and the Conservatives popularity will decline further. (The foreseeability of this scenario, and the ability of a bigger majority to absorb defections and by-election losses during this process, seemed to me the real meaning behind May's stated desire to strengthen her authority by obtaining a bigger majority).

The longer this process continues, the easier it will be for a future Corbyn government's takeover of the negotiations to look comparatively successful.