Trump preparing for war with Iran
If you liked the most recent Iraq war, you'll absolutely love war with Iran.
Make no mistake, war with Iran will be an epic disaster. A Napoleon invading Russia in 1812 level of catastrophe.
But facts and reality has never been enough to change Donald Trump's mind.
Trump has loaded his cabinet of trusted advisers with anti-Iran warhawks.
According to The Washington Post, active or retired military officials hold at least 10 of the 25 senior policy and leadership spots on Trump's National Security Council — five times more than under Obama...
Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Trump's national-security adviser, believes Iran was behind attacks on US troops in Iraq. The NSC's senior director for the Middle East, Derek Harvey, is seen as an Iran hawk. And the NSC senior director for intelligence, Ezra Cohen-Watnick, has said he wants to use US spies to depose the Iranian government.
Across the Potomac River, Trump's top man at the Pentagon is of similar extraction.
As a general, Secretary of Defense James Mattis commanded the 1st Marine Division during the 2003 invasion of Iraq and held other commands during operations there afterward.
While in Iraq and looking to retaliate for Iran-backed attacks on US personnel, Mattis devised plans for strikes in Iranian territory...
In late 2010, after taking over as chief of US Central Command, Mattis was asked by Obama what his priorities were.
"Iran, Iran, and Iran," Mattis replied.
Then yesterday this happened.
He is known as the Dark Prince or Ayatollah Mike, nicknames he earned as the Central Intelligence Agency officer who oversaw the hunt for Osama bin Laden and the American drone strike campaign that killed thousands of Islamist militants and hundreds of civilians.
Now the official, Michael D’Andrea, has a new job. He is running the C.I.A.’s Iran operations, according to current and former intelligence officials, an appointment that is the first major sign that the Trump administration is invoking the hard line the president took against Iran during his campaign.
Trump had already ratcheted up the anti-Iran rhetoric. During his recent overseas trip he demanded Iran to stop its nuclear weapons program, a program that the U.N. has certified doesn't exist.
Furthermore, Trump accused Iran of "funding, training and equipping of terrorists and militias, and it must cease immediately."
Forget the irony of us denouncing Iran's support of terrorists, while Saudi Arabia and the Pentagon back jihadists in Syria.
Instead the key words in that statement is "and militias".
Iran will never, ever, ever stop supporting the Shia militias in Iraq and Syria that are defeating ISIS and al-Qaeda. Not in a million years. Not even under the threat of war with the United States.
Even more important, a proxy war with Iranian-backed militias in Syria now appears unavoidable.
Iran also wants its allied forces to take care of the Iraqi-Syrian border issue because it still wants to open a land crossing linking Iraqi-Iranian borders in eastern Iraq to the Iraqi-Syrian border in western Iraq. This issue that Washington and Tehran have been fighting over will place Abadi in an embarrassing position...
A military conflict over the Iraqi-Syrian border between the allies of Tehran and those of Washington is on hold now because of the ongoing military operations in Mosul.
However, it seems this conflict is inevitable and likely to erupt after the liberation of the district of Tal Afar in the Ninevah governorate.
While a Tehran-Damascus land bridge seems threatening to Israel, it shouldn't make a bit of difference to Washington...unless regime change in Syria and war with Iran are on the agenda.
The U.S. military said on Thursday it had bolstered its "combat power" in southern Syria, warning that it viewed Iran-backed fighters in the area as a threat to nearby coalition troops fighting Islamic State...
"We have increased our presence and our footprint and prepared for any threat that is presented by the pro-regime forces," said the spokesman, U.S. Army Colonel Ryan Dillon, referring to Iran-backed forces supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Why would pro-regime forces fighting ISIS and al-Qaeda be considered our enemies? Reuter answers that a few sentences further down.
The coalition's presence in Tanf, on the Damascus-Baghdad highway, was also meant to stop Iran-backed groups from opening an overland route between Iraq and Syria, the sources say.
If Trump thinks Iran is unable to fight back, he is sadly mistaken.
If Trump thinks that Iran will simply back down, he is sadly mistaken.
Iran is twice the size, with three times the population, of Iraq circa 2003.
More importantly, unlike Saddam's Iraq, Iran isn't politically and economically isolated. It has allies in Russia and China.
More importantly, thanks to President Bush, Iraq is not just a close ally of Iran, it's practically a client state.
Those Shia militias we are preparing to bomb in Syria are the very same Shia militias our forces in Iraq are working with. Those militias in Iraq number over 100,000, and killed hundreds of our soldiers during the occupation.
Do you think they might care when we start killing their comrades in Syria? I do.
How long would it take before a proxy war in Syria spreads to Iraq and engulfs the entire region?
Comments
To answer your question
"How long would it take before a proxy war in Syria spread to Iraq, and engulfed the entire region?"
Not very damn long at all.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Iran did supply the enemy in Iraq...
At least when I was there. I mean, it's not like the local bomb maker can whip up double stacked soviet era AT mines in his garage...
Of course, we were also under orders NOT to patrol the areas where we knew the mines were coming from, so, you know... might have been the CIA giving em to the enemy for all I know... Hell wouldn't be surprised if the fucking spooks pulled that shit.
All I know about the war was it was a stupid mistake from the get-go. We had no business to be there, and trying to pick a side in that charlie foxtrot was both idiotic and impossible. There's a lot of military hardware in that area, and now the "Bad Guys" are using the stuff that we just freaking GAVE them when we sort of, kind of but not really pulled out of Iraq...
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
The secret to peace in the middle east
is more bombs, more weapons, more troops and more killing.
It's so obvious I don't know why no one has tried it before in 5,000 years of recorded history.
/s
more, more, more..... snark
You mean like this?
[video:https://youtu.be/-evIyrrjTTY width:500 height:350]
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Charlie foxtrot gave me a smile.
Few here might not realize that's military jargon for a flustered cluck.
There is no such thing as TMI. It can always be held in reserve for extortion.
God forbid that Iraq and Syria should
ever be allowed to control the border between Iraq and Syria. Wait a minute. What did I just say?
native
Maybe it's time God got the fuck out
and let Allah look after that border. Every single time God has messed in that area in the last 100 years, all hell has broken loose and millions have had their lives destroyed.
Yeah maybe so.
But of course we can always count on Mammon to be doing his thing.
native
Of course. Mammon does the accounting for both.
By "God" are you referring to the Christian Crusades?
Yeah I think the Crusades started the pot boiling.
Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.
Yeah, but the Egyptians and Phoenecians
were duking it out there millennia ago, if memory serves, the oldest peace treaty known was between them. Strategic location, vital resources, cultural epicenter, all combine to make it a hotspot.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
Don't forget the Hittites.....
Don't forget the Hittites and the Persians.
And she's right: you really can't stop the Macedonian signal. Especially right around the 300 BCE times.....
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
In Tyre,
you can still see some ruins that Alex left.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
It was a play on words.
The Europeans and Americans, both basically Christian (God) nations, have been meddling in their countries, including designating their borders, since 1919. These "Christians" paid no heed to the ethno-religious (Allah) makeup of the people that had inhabited the area for millennia.
Iran, on the other hand, escaped much of this partitioning and re-arrangement of their territories. They are the only country in the region not to have been conquered by the colonial powers. They did lose some slivers of territory in the north to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan during the Soviet times. Iran is the most ethnically diverse nation in the Middle East yet it has been the most stable for hundreds of years. It is mainly Shia (90%) but is accepting of other religions.
Hopefully, God (US, UK) will stay out and leave the country to Allah.
Well if Russia can't move their troops inside their country
then other countries shouldn't be allowed to safeguard their borders either. This is what our government thinks, isn't it?
They warn Syrians not to get too close to were they are training Al Qaida and other terrorists troops that are trying to overthrow their government.
Russia is putting their troops close to the borders where NATO is building up troops and the US says that is Russian aggression.
More US hubris.
What is the chance for the soldiers rebelling if they are sent to attack Iran?
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
US government thinks
Our government..... thinks??!!??
Surely you jest!
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
I thought that the Tanf region
was one of the agreed-upon "de-confliction" zones. Is that agreement no longer operative?
Anyone know exactly what the "coalition forces" there are composed of?
Sure it's a potential flash-point, but I doubt that a war with Iran is inevitable, or even likely -- despite all the bluff and bluster from Trump and his Generals. There would be far too many down-sides to it, for it to be widely considered practicable.
native
The conflicts in Syria and Iraq seem to be coming
under control. Time to ignite a new one. Iran seems to be a good choice.
With Iran, we get six prizes for the price of one. Destroy Israel and KSA's perennial enemy, put a crimp in China's Silk Road to Africa, enrich the MIC, gain control of untold billions in oil and gas and give the proverbial finger to Russia. What's not to love about this plan? Something for everyone - well at least the important people.
It could shore up the petrodollar too,
in a desperate, Red Storm Rising kind of way.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
Not to mention that the terrain in Iran
is very tough and highly defensible, they have decent medium and short range missiles, and due to it's proximity to Hormuz, oil prices would be $300 a barrel on day one, no matter what else happened.
Yeah, Napoleon, 1812. Good analogy. He gets to Moscow soon enough, and then says "Now what?" as they proceed to eat his army alive.
Here's a bit more on D'Andrea, turns out he's a Muslim convert, for the sake of his wife, Farida. My experience is that the vast majority of American converts are Sunni, and they tend to either be drawn to Sufism or Wahabbism. He doesn't sound like a prospect for the former.
He may have a real axe to grind in the greater Sunni/Shia war, or, he may just be an amoral secularist, it's hard to tell.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
The Strait of Hormuz is only 12 miles from Iran
Sinking one tanker with field artillery would be enough to shut it down. This is why some consider the Iraq-Syria pipeline strategic since 20% of the world oil *35% of the seaborne oil) passes through Hormuz. IMO, oil may only go up by 100% but it would be bad enough to mess things up.
The political revolution continues
I'm still amazed we still have a republican party
after that Iraq fiasco. They started a war over a proven lie but still have the country by the stones. Thousands of American military killed and wounded. The economy crashing. Chaos in the Middle East for generations. Only a collection of corporate, milquetoast conservadems could fail to take advantage of that....wait....oh yea, that's right.
The real SparkyGump has passed. It was an honor being your human.
Remember when people were saying that the republicans
would be out of power for a long time after the Bush administration and the Iraq war? It took one election for them to retake the house and two to get the senate.
I still wonder how much of this is by design? Obama was able to hide behind the republicans blocking his legislation that he wanted to pass. The blue dogs being against popular legislation was getting too hard to keep hiding behind. And Obama never used the bully pulpit or signing statements to keep horrible legislation from being passed. He could have used one when congress defunded SNAP by $8 million.
With Trump being president, the republicans holding both houses, the democrats are unable to stop them.
It seems that this was rigged. Or maybe I'm too cynical.
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
Fewer people are voting for Democrats
because fewer believe that they will do anything for them. They are all talk, and people are tired of the sunshine enemas.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
What Iran is actually like
link
And then consider this irony.
Serious question
Why would we give anyone weapons grade uranium to power a nuclear reactor. Weapons grade is enriched to over 90% U235 and/or U236. A commercial reactor runs on fuel enriched to less than 20%. The only reactors I've heard of using weapons grade uranium power submarines.
The original uranium supplied was highly enriched
About 6 kilos enriched to 93% plus some plutonium. Sold at a good price too. $10 /gm.
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20614/volume-614-I-8...
Was it a breeder reactor? n/t
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
The first reactor in Iran was a PWR
Basically the same as that in a nuclear powered submarine.
Sorry
I thought you were talking about a reactor for producing electric power.
I was. It was a PWR. Same as nuclear sub.
See above response to dervish.
Well, we finally fixed Afghanistan
so the US military should be able to make short work out of Iran.
Oh wait, Taliban in Afghanistan is now MUCH worse than ever -- after 15 years of body bags and a cool $ Trillion.
Of course half of Trump appointees are generals so what the f**k do we expect will happen. The country has been governed by madmen for the past 30 years -- possibly ever since after FDR.
Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.
It's true that Americans generally don’t do
nuance. Nor do they pay much attention to history, and they can't seem to think more than one step ahead either. Not even the ones who have advanced degrees from Harvard and Yale!
native
nuance
Especially the ones who have advanced degrees from Harvard and Yale!
You want historical understanding? You want understanding of nuance?
In America, look to those who had the brains to avoid falling into the student-loan peonage trap.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
People on Facebook
Are shocked...shocked!!! that mercenaries trained in anti-terrorist tactics were used against the water protectors in Standing Rock. Americans have zero cultural memory...
" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "
I don't get the motive
I know all the reasons that Iran is hated etc etc, but what makes the generals think that this will work?
They must have gamed this thing out, and it should be clear that conquering Iran would be extremely difficult and problematic, to the point of being unpredictable, due to unleashing unanticipated consequences.
The only way this makes sense is if they are bluffing, or if they fundamentally believe that they can win. The American military doesn't typically like to take chances, it wants overwhelming force before the first shot is fired. They must think they have this. The only thing I can think of is that they must have some technological solution that they believe will be absolutely over-whelming.
Low-tech weapons could close the strait for the Iranians easily, so it can't be EMP stuff, or other electronics, it's got to be something that would deny any functionality to even low-tech applications.
American ABMs, while decent, aren't enough in quantity or effectiveness to fully protect all of our assets there.
I know I'm missing something, just trying to figure out what.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
It looks a lot like a bluff to me.
It's not as if Trump is often averse to bluffing.
native
Sorry to say it, but
Three times a country has tried to trade oil in other than US dollars. The first two were Iraq and Libya. Iran just cut a deal with Russia to trade oil for goods. I estimate the bombing will start in a week.
I take back my previous opinion. By electing Trump instead of Hillary we only bought 3 months. To anyone living within 15 miles of a military base or a major population center, it was nice to know you.
On to Biden since 1973
major military population center
I'll give your regards to Ceiling Cat when I meet Her.
Sean McCullough (thanatokephaloides)
Colorado Springs, Colorado
n.b.: The Fourth Congressional District (contains the whole Pikes Peak region) went to the wall for Drumpf. Of course, that's facing an unmakeable decision in 2016.....
"You know, Jerry (Garcia), I'm Grateful we're Dead!"
-- Solomon bin David, King of Israel, commenting on the 2016 US Presidential election
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
I saw Jerry at Red Rocks
a few eons ago. Good times.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
It's quite different now
Russia and China are direct players in the game - kinda like having a couple of big brothers around to help against the US bully who wants to steel Iran's lunch money.
Iran is swapping oil for goods with Russia and trading oil for China's yuan. The Saudis are also considering a change because China wants to pay in yuan and the Saudis are selling less and less to the US while Russia is outbidding them for China.
The Gulf states have considerable trade
with China too (doesn't everyone?). The Great Wall automotive brand is there in a big way in terms of trucks and heavy equipment.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
Let's take on an ancient, vast, sophisticated country
that knows how to fight.
What could go wrong?
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
That's something definitely worth mentioning:
Iran has trained extremely effective proxies, and their own Quds forces are top notch, they've got good tactics and morale. Engaging them in a ground war with them on the defensive in advantageous terrain can't be a good idea.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
Agreed!
We're talking about the Persians here.
Who fought, blow for blow, with the likes of Alexander of Macedon.
They aren't pipsqueak Saudis.
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
They were Immortals in their day.
Even now, their proxies were tough enough to hold off the IDF in a ground war (2006). They reduced them to crying babies.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
When Trump bombs Iran, what will democrats be protesting?
After Trump's decision to leave the Paris agreement, democrats protested today across multiple cities demanding an investigation into Trump's ties with Russia. The last protest demanded that Trump release his taxes in the face of horrid immigration policies and round up of non-violent undocumented workers and assaults on health care.
I know that democrats complained that the Syrian bombing didn't do enough damage nor kill any Russians. Maybe after Trump bombs Iran, the dems will protest something along these lines--Trump didn't bomb effectively and didn't kill enough Iranians.
It looks like they're putting together the pieces
as we speak. I'm certain that the current brouhaha over Qatar is about their reluctance to join an effort against Iran, and that the "hack" against the Emirati Ambassador is actually a fully intentional leak.
It's mind-boggling how stupid their cover story is though. Rank amateurs.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."