India's demonetization in retrospect

On the same day that Trump won the presidential election Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered the destruction of 86 percent of his nation’s currency.

India is a highly cash-oriented society. Poorer Indians rely almost entirely on cash, despite the Modi government’s pressure to get most of them to open bank accounts. Reliance on credit and debit cards as well as electronic payment methods is far more limited than in the industrialized West.
Kalraj Mishra is Minister of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises, which suggests that he should be concerned about micro, small, and medium businesses, which have been hardest hit by the currency “reform.” However, he dismissed the sometimes catastrophic losses as “nominal and temporary,” and predicted “industrial momentum will be back” as soon as sufficient currency is restored. No doubt, he is feeling positive since his salary still is being paid.

Despite the extreme hardships inflicted upon hundreds of millions of poor Indians, the financial leaders of the world were nearly unanimous in support of the demonetization effort.
For example, CNBC had this headline: India set to be Asia's standout economy as demonetization effect ebbs, HSBC says

In reality, the hard data shows the effects of demonetization continue to be negative.

India’s oil consumption fell for a third straight month, with the use of bitumen and naphtha declining and diesel demand growth flat, amid the continuing effects of demonetization.

Five months after Modi's currency move the job market of India is still depressed.

Demonetization and scarce capital availability has led to a 10-50% drop in employee hires in India’s startup ecosystem this year.
Other than hiring woes, the rate at which pink slips are being given to employees has also increased in this nascent sector of the Indian economy. According to research platform Xeler8, startups in India fired 9,200 employees last year, compared to about 5,500 in 2015. This year, the trend is expected to continue.
...
“We were planning to break-even in January. But demonetization hit, (the option for cash payments on delivery) disappeared and sales were down. We decided to move our focus outside of India,” said Vivek Gaur, founder of YepMe, which recently began operations in the United Kingdom.
Whereas industry insiders have blamed the tough funding environment for the job cuts and lower levels of hiring, others have put responsibility on demonetization for the current bloodbath in India's startup ecosystem.

The demonetization move was based on the theory that criminals and tax evaders were sitting on stacks of cash. Thus, this move was anti-crime.
However, in just the first month 82% of bank notes rendered worthless by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise move were validated.
This renders the rationalization for the dramatic change false.

On the flip side, demonetization boosters are quick to point out how the cash crunch is over, but they rarely tell you why it is over.

However, with the remonetisation process well underway, use of debit cards at point-of-sale terminals have also come down in February, while cash withdrawal is going up, RBI data shows...
“People are again going back to cash,” he said. “Withdrawals for cash have increased and we will see them getting back to more or less [the levels in the] pre demonetisation period.”
Total cash and currency circulation in the system was ₹13.32 lakh crore as on March 31, which is 76% of the ₹17.97 lakh crore that was in circulation before November 8.

So the cash crunch is over because there is more cash around. India has been remonetized.
Meaning this entire "bold" monetary experiment was completely pointless.
It accomplished nothing but hurt a lot of poor people.

Well, that isn't entirely true.
There was one side-effect that needs to be acknowledged - it gave the government a tremendous amount of power over people's lives.

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Amanda Matthews's picture

or proposes new monetary/economic policies you know, regardless if it's intent, that the only people who are affected and in the end suffer, are the poor and middle class. The well connected and rich never feel a thing.

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I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks

Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa

that poor people got hurt for the first time in world history as usual.

Ain't we got fun?

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7F3_MaVh2Q]

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in India, he told me that the main motivation for the whole effort was that the company, or government, or whatever (south african, he might have said?) that had made the plates for India's currency had sold duplicates to one or more criminal (terrorist?) factions in Pakistan, and that India was being flooded by counterfeit currency from Pakistan.

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

@UntimelyRippd

Figures... just freaking figures...

Thanks for the info! And I'm glad that the people who sorta survived this in India are at least able to re-monetize. So stupid to unnecessarily make everything dependent on functional power and systems, especially with increasingly violent weather anticipated globally and a greater likelihood of more frequent/longer outages/disasters.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

link

It was reported that people in Hyderabad and Telangana have been the worst hit by cash crunch with nearly 65% of the ATMs devoid of cash. The Reserve Bank of India provided only one-fourth of the total cash required by ATMs, most of them in Telangana are running dry, a report by The News Minute stated. People expressed their rage and anguish on social media. Facebook and Twitter were flooded with posts on how banks and ATMs failed to cater to its customers. Meanwhile, northern state Delhi recorded the highest amount of ATMs dispensing cash, with only 11 per cent citizens unable to find money in the ATMs during the period.

According to a survey conducted by the LocalCircles citizen engagement platform, it was reported that the availability of cash at ATMs has worsened in the last two months or so in many parts of the country. It reported that eighty-three per cent citizens who visited ATMs last week in Hyderabad, could not find the cash while it was 69 per cent in Pune.

The average transaction per ATM is estimated at about 125 in a day. Reports state that more than about 800-1000 people queued up at ATMs at the metros to withdraw cash but were disappointed as there was no sufficient cash available. It was reported by the banking sources that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is supplying only about 25% of the cash which is required for ATMs in several states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Kerala.

Report state that India has about 200,000 ATMs and Banks and cash logistics companies are finding it difficult to replenish ATMs in these states where the average transaction per ATM is estimated at about 125 in a day, Hindustan Times reported.

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