Important gains against ISIS

There are several important, although conditional, gains against ISIS in the last few days.
The most dramatic was the retaking of Sinjar by the Iraqi Kurds.

The Kurdish fighters that entered Sinjar, waving flags and getting into occasional gunfights, were seeking to sever a key Islamic State supply line linking militant strongholds in Syria and Iraq. By Friday afternoon, the fighters were firing celebratory rifle shots in the air.

Besides the obvious symbolism (i.e. this is the location of the Yazidi massacre), the importance of this victory can be clearly seen on a map. The primary road between Mosul and Raqqa has now been cut.
 photo sinjar_zpsxifzxccc.jpg
While that's great news, the advances of the Iraqi Kurds against ISIS have probably come to an end.

Iraq’s Kurds loathe ISIS, but they also have their own priorities, which do not necessarily mirror those of the United States or even the Iraqi government. Don’t expect this Kurdish offensive to go much beyond Sinjar itself...
For the Kurds, the new reality has amounted to a paradox: leaders in both Baghdad and Washington want the Kurds to fight ISIS, but the Kurds themselves mostly just want to secure Iraq’s Kurdish areas.

There is another reason why the Kurds won't be moving south - because they will run into the Shia militias from Baghdad.

Clashes between Iraqi Kurdish and Shiite fighters north of Baghdad killed seven people Thursday, an official said, illustrating major fault lines between ostensible allies against the ISIS militant group.

Much further south, Iraqi Shia forces have finally managed to surround Ramadi.
However, that needs to be put into context. It took Iraqi forces more than three months just to surround the city. Now comes the hard part. Ramadi has tens of thousands of civilians in it, so an artillery bombardment like what happened to Tikrit in May is probably out of the question. A major urban assault is likely to be long and bloody.

Probably the best news in the War on ISIS is a certain lack of news: It's been months since ISIS has managed a significant offensive in Iraq. They are clearly on their heels and slowly losing ground.
In Syria, where ISIS has been more active, the Russian-backed Syrian government offensive has managed to break the ISIS siege of a strategic airfield.

The war against ISIS is going much better than it appeared as recently as April.
So then why did General John Allen (Ret.), Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, say this?

“If we don’t get at those issues over the long term, not just be compelled to constantly be fighting the symptoms of the problems, which is al Qaeda and which is Daesh - if we don’t get to the left of those symptoms and try to solve these underlying circumstances, working collaboratively with those who are in the region, who best understand the region, then we’re going to be condemned to fight forever.”

While General Allen doesn't list those long-term issues, a few of them are easy to guess.
However, merely voicing those issues leads one to directly contradicting both the war strategy and political rhetoric used by both political parties and the news media for the last decade.
And it all hinges on a single word: terrorism.

On the other hand, the Islamic State has a record of taking and holding territory, controlling populations, even governing at the local level – just like a classic insurgent group. Its fighters swept into the Sunni areas of western Iraq on a wave of popular disaffection with the central government and have filled the vacuum left by the retreat of the Iraqi state and its security forces....
These are not the activities of a shadowy terrorist network, but a semi-overt insurgency bent on mobilizing the population against the government. Terrorist groups by most definitions do not seek control over territory and populations. They operate in secret, keep their distance from society and rarely depend on popular support for their survival.
The administration’s counterterrorism strategy in the borderlands of Pakistan, focused on raids and drone strikes, proved effective in part because the target was a small network of individuals, many of them outsiders with little support among the population. It was possible to pick off members of al-Qaeda in Pakistan one by one until the network was nearly decimated.
An insurgency with tens of thousands of fighters poses an altogether different challenge. Air strikes will take their toll but will barely dent the organization’s fighting power. Over time, its members will learn to avoid moving in convoys and congregating in large numbers and will seek the cover of urban areas and civilian populations – making air strikes increasingly difficult and risky.

That's the key issue here. We are using counter-terrorism tactics designed to defeat a "group", but everything ISIS does resembles an insurgency or rebellion. We've got the entire game plan wrong.
Just look at the slow assault on Ramadi.

"We trained and built a counter-insurgency [Iraqi] army, and this is much more of a conventional fight" against the defenses thrown up by ISIS, Army Col. Steve Warren, a spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve, said in a briefing to the Pentagon from Baghdad last month...
ISIS has thrown up defensive belts around Ramadi, using remotely controlled improvised explosive devices much like minefields, and taking up defensive positions to cover the IEDs with fields of fire, Warren said.

There is no way, no way at all, that you can use counter-terrorism tactics in a conventional war and expect to win.
So why doesn't the Obama Administration switch to a more appropriate strategy and use more accurate terminology?
If I was to guess, it's because it would naturally raise questions that the Obama Administration doesn't want to answer.

Fighting terrorism means just killing a few bad guys.
Fighting an insurgency implies that there are outstanding political issues involved.

Fighting a rebellion in a conventional war means that we've chosen a side in a civil war (which is what we've done) and that sounds messy and complicated. Nothing at all like just "killing terrorists".
It also sounds a lot like the mess Bush got us into in Iraq, but even worse. In other words, reality is political poison, so we are going to stick with the sure-loser of a fantasy.

That's not to say that it has to be this way. Obama promoted the Taliban earlier this year.

"The Taliban is an armed insurgency, ISIL is a terrorist group," Schultz said. "So, we don't make concessions to terrorist groups."

The Obama Administration is trapped by its own rhetoric.
If this is a full-scale rebellion then negotiation is necessary. Otherwise this rebellion will drag out year after year like our conflict with the Taliban has, and then flare up again in some other form in the near future.
Now some may say that there is no way we can negotiate with ISIS, but then people said the same thing about the Taliban 10 years ago.

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Just after I posted this I noticed the news. Not sure if that's good timing or bad timing.

The taking of all those hostages at the concert gave me the horrible memory of the Moscow theater and Beslan school tragedies.

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The US reports "significant" battlefied
success against ISIS, retaking (again)
the strategic city of Sinjar.

The US "may have" killed Jihadi
John by firing two Hellfire missiles
from a Predator drone at a car he
was "believed" to be in near Raqqa..

Multiple, simultaneous violent
attacks - explosions, gunfire,
hostages - in and arround Paris.

Sounds to me like the US PTB are
"preparing" the world for an
imminent dramatic escalation of
the World War they declared in 2001.

Hope I'm wrong.

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Only connect. - E.M. Forster

terrorism & insurgency in Vietnam

we seemed to have learned nothing

and as long as the military has money

and resources flow to the oligarchs

and the blow back is bearable, what the heck! keep up the "war on terror"
A good friend taught a course on terrorism last year and he recommended an excellent book "The Thistle and The Drone"

It points out the tribal nature of the resistance

In The Thistle and the Drone, world-renowned author, diplomat, and scholar Akbar Ahmed draws on 40 current case studies in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia, to reveal a tremendously important yet largely unrecognized adverse effect of campaigns on the war against terror. Ahmed argues that in the aftermath of 9/11, the use of drones as a leading military counterinsurgency weapon has morphed into a campaign against tribal peoples that has actually exacerbated the already-broken relationship between central governments and the tribal societies on their periphery. Although al Qaeda has been decimated, the U.S. is drifting into a global war against tribal societies on the periphery of nations.

this is from NY Review of books

Ahmed’s book is a radical analysis based on extensive anthropological detail too complex to be easily summarized. A good example of his approach, however, is his analysis of the background of the September 11 hijackers. It is well known that fifteen of the nineteen terrorists were Saudi nationals. Less well known or indeed understood is their tribal background. The official report of the 9/11 Commission, based on information provided by the Saudi authorities, states that four of the thirteen “muscle hijackers”—the operatives whose job was to storm the cockpits and control the passengers—came from the al-Bahah region, “an isolated and undeveloped area of Saudi Arabia, and shared the same tribal affiliation.” Three of them shared the same al-Ghamdi surname; five others came from Asir Province, described as a poor, “weakly policed area” that borders Yemen, with two of these, Wail and Waleed al-Shehri, actually brothers…

Ahmed, by contrast, sees ethnicity or tribal identity as the crucial factors in the recruitment of the hijackers. “Bin Laden,” he states, “was joined in his movement primarily by his fellow Yemeni tribesmen,” ten of whom came from the Asir tribes, including Ghamed, Zahran, and Bani Shahr. Indeed the only one of the nineteen hijackers without a tribal pedigree was Mohammed Atta, the Egyptian architect who led the operation and had much to do with its planning

all of these came from one link on the Brookings Instution which has an article with several links

The Thistle and the Drone How America’s War on Terror Became a Global War on Tribal Islam

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shaharazade's picture

The attacks in Paris are abhorrent and so is the refugee crisis. Blowback is a bitch. Our allies in crime Europe are getting the brunt of what we sow. Who created ISIS and has allies like France the UK and Germany messing about in Libya, Yemen, Africa or anywhere else globally that threatens our game plan? I'm outraged and appalled that people like kos are using this already to decry the extremists. The West led by the US invade, occupy, kill, drone, bomb, incarcerate, torture and demolish the ME or any place that dares to not knuckle under and threaten or won't go along with our brave new fascistic vision of the world as we find it.

All those terrifying US military evil fucks with their chests full of ribbons and their lizard faces and thick necks need to be stopped. It makes me sick to read the pols in power around the world saying we will stand tall for our values. What values? Meanwhile regular people from Yemen to Paris pay the price of the evil fucks power/money games. Screw them all including Bernie this has nothing to do with anything other then blowback and cause and effect. Maybe the US and it's 'allies' should stop taking on this battle. This is what you reap when you declare endless planetary war on on a nebulous enemy like Terror. Terror could care less about your fake values. This is what happens when you open the Pandora box and become the dark side that kills both the planet and humans because they ??????. All for profit and world dominion. As you can tell by my heated reaction to this latest blowback I'm just sick to the bottom of my soul, mind and spirit of this totally useless inhumanity brutality and madness.

From Libération editor Laurent Joffrin
The Republic, its mobilised state and the law forces will take on the battle without trembling, with great efficiency. It is impossible to not link those bloody attacks to those taking place in the Middle East, where France plays its part. Our country must continue its action unblinkingly. Only our country’s unity – as it stands strong, voluntary and carried by our values – will allow France to take its greatest challenge.

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how the people most outrages over the terrorist attacks in Paris are alos the ones who have cared the least about all the civilians we have killed in the ME.
That's the true definition of racism.

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divineorder's picture

My thoughts wandered to that same direction as your comment.

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

LapsedLawyer's picture

My feeling is it all goes back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1915-16, carving up the remnants of the Ottoman Empire into spheres of influence for the Western powers, governed by pliable and agreeable rulers. The U.S. is simply the successor-by-default, given that WWII depleted the military capabilities of Europe and the Soviet Union, hampering their ability to enforce their influence in the region, leaving us with that task. And the radicalism that has sprung up is a direct response to that continued enforcement by the U.S. and its Western allies, They're lashing back, threatening to turn the entire world into the Big Muddy.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3SysxG6yoE]

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"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it."
-- John Lennon

link

German filmmaker Carsten Stormer, embedded with the PKK fighters, reported no resistance from the ISIS fighters, saying he saw only one dead ISIS fighters in his whole time following the fighters into the city. He added that the PKK “arrived first” in Sinjar. PKK leaders said they got their “four hours before the peshmerga.”
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