The Deadliest Threat in the the Middle East

Is it ISIS? Al-Queda? Hamas? Iran? Israel? Saudi Arabia? Syria? Russia? The U-S-A?

How about none of the above. Actually, the greatest killer of people in the Middle East is -- Climate Change.

The UN’s Environmental Agency (UNEA) released a report in May calculating that the harsh climate claims 230,000 lives annually in West Asia (the Arabian Peninsula and the fertile crescent), making it a greater killer than war. By somewhere between 2070 and 2100, predicts Dr Elfatih Eltahir, professor of climate at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the temperature in much of the Gulf could have reached levels beyond which any exposure for more than six hours would be intolerable even for the fittest of humans. Current highs might seem like a normal summer day. Mecca’s outdoor pilgrimage could become hazardous. “We’re seeing just the tip of the iceberg,” he adds. “Extreme temperatures will be much worse in the future.”

Back in the 1970's, the climate in Basra, Iraq was similar to the Mediterranean countries of southern Europe. There were so many canals running through and around the delta area of Iraq that Basra was called called the Venice of the Middle East. Millions of orchards of date palm trees supported hundreds of thousands of people engaged in working the land in the region, and the dates they harvested supported thousands more involved in the export business. Now, however, as temperatures have risen over the last four decades, much of the Shatt al-Arab area previously covered by verdant wetlands and orchards has been reclaimed by the desert, or invaded by salt water from rising seas.

Over-irrigation has also taken a toll as the Midle East's fresh water resources are rapidly being depleted, turning much of the land there into dust bowls. The capitol of Yemen, Sana’a, will likely run out of water by 2019. Southern Yemen already has seen its water table collapse. Sand storms have increased, spreading the toxic, often radioactive, detritus of past and current wars to urban civilian populations. Two thirds of the countries in the Arabian peninsula and the "fertile crescent" have exhausted their available water resources to the extent that that they lack the "minimum [amount] viable for human survival." These nations have become net water importers, in other words.

It goes without saying that the constant upheaval of war upon war has hindered efforts to ameliorate the effects of drought and the ever hotter and more frequent heat waves in a part of the world where so many people live as refugees in "tent cities" exposed to the elements. Indeed, as has been frequently mentioned, drought in the rural regions of Syria led to a mass exodus to the cities. That upheaval in the demographic structure of the country was one of the main causes of the current conflict there between the Assad regime and various groups of rebels and ethnic groups. The same military conflict that has now drawn into the fighting so many of the larger regional powers - the Saudis and their allies, Iran, Turkey - as well as two of the greatest military powers, Russia and the US.

And yet how much time did either major party's political convention devote to addressing climate change as the not only our single greatest national security threat, but a deadlier force for death and destruction than any of our ongoing wars against terror? And establishment Democrats wonder why the Green Party, for all its flaws, looks ever more appealing to me and others with each passing day.

I'm not afraid of a few terrorists, but I am scared out of my wits by the failure of our political elites to even attempt to do what's necessary, now, today - not ten or twenty or thirty years from now - to deal with the deadly forces our dependence on fossil fuels has unleashed. Our "political leaders" are killing not just our future, but our present, all for a few millions of dollars in campaign contributions from industries tied to the extraction of non-renewable energy resources. Kurt Vonnegut was right when he said this: "That is my principal objection to life, I think: It's too easy, when alive, to make perfectly horrible mistakes." Certainly, this past year has convinced me of the truth of that statement.

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detroitmechworks's picture

In Diyala Province when I was there. I recall orders to drink water CONSTANTLY. As in you were expected to drink at least a full canteen every half hour. Taking off your shirt you would have a V of sweat on both sides that extended the entire length. When my folks asked me what I wanted for a care package, I requested, and received a package of non-regulation Bandannas which I passed out among my unit because the sweat was so bad you were often unable to see due to salt in your eyes. Bandannas were against regs, but we wore them anyway, after explaining ourselves to the Captain, who agreed to NOT see it as long as we remembered to remove them when we removed our K-pods.

Of course, now I find that I have Kidney problems that resulted from long term damage experienced there. Which was a contributing factor in my new lovely condition of Gout.

And I was only there for 15 months.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

martianexpatriate's picture

I haven't had an attack in a long time, but for awhile it was a recurring problem. The first time you have an attack of gout it's kind of incredible. You can't believe how bad it is.

My right foot swelled up so much it looked freakish. I couldn't walk at all, or even wear a sock.

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earthling1's picture

to realize how stupid they look?

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

The entry to the their Manhattan apartments are underwater.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

They'll just come and go via the helipad.

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WaveyDavey's picture

the pattern I note is that each new set of current data shows the predictions were underestimated. So newer, scarier predictions are made. Then we find we under shot again.

I'm not convinced that we have 10, 20, or 30 years left to act.

10 days ago I experienced 116 degree temperatures. That is a new record for my body. My body was not amused. Oddly, the news reported a high of 107 degrees for the day. This is not an isolated incident. I noted many times when the meteorologists numbers were lower than what my instruments are reading.

Thanks for the essay Steven.

One final note. Did he have to use this phraseology?

“We’re seeing just the tip of the iceberg,” he adds. “Extreme temperatures will be much worse in the future.”

It's a cliche I know, but when you're talking about ice caps melting it's not the most appropriate cliche you should be running with.

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The people, united, will never be defeated.

Lookout's picture

Many factors add to the fact the models are underestimating the rate of change. Among those is the attack on scientists themselves by rethugs for doing climate research.

Here's a 12 min discussion with Mike Mann about the situation this summer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkQU81BFxxk

No doubt the ME is suffering from Climate change (and creating much of the refugee problem), but countries like Bangladesh are also challenged.
about 30 min on their flooding issues
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99jkZ-6vvvE

No doubt this is the great challenge of our time.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

detroitmechworks's picture

have been pushing "Why are you attacking Scientists" for raising concerns about things like GMO's, Drugs foisted off on the populace, and the like.

Essentially they've whored out scientists to the point that the entire scientific community can be portrayed as money hungry fools who think only about short term profit.

Resulting in people beginning to start thinking about all science as junk science... which result in Tobacco industry shills vs medical doctors all over again.

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elenacarlena's picture

Screenshot (163).png

Biggrin

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detroitmechworks's picture

Was this a recent thing, or somebody else?

Edit: I think I totally missed the context of the humor, and I apologize if it's obvious and I'm too stupid to see it.

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elenacarlena's picture

I was NR'd for uprating CT yesterday. AFAIK, I did not uprate CT, but a comment that went much like yours:

Essentially they've whored out scientists to the point that the entire scientific community can be portrayed as money hungry fools who think only about short term profit. Resulting in people beginning to start thinking about all science as junk science....

You didn't know such a comment was CT? Me neither, so since I was educated on that today I thought I'd share.

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detroitmechworks's picture

Of course, I've seen that one bandied about by Hillboughts recently QUITE a bit.

Mostly used to attack Dr. Stein for her opposition to laws banning GMO labeling and the overall consolidation of the food supply under corporate rule.

Figures that they'd use the banhammer when called out on it.

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elenacarlena's picture

That such might have been the reason the Bern/Hill votes were so close never occurs to them. When I try to point out that smearing will lose their team votes, they deny it.

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Lookout's picture

about 3 min They can't argue facts so they attack the messengers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRWIdD3S6t4

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

to start saying "we're seeing just the tip of the volcano" ...

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Cassiodorus's picture

wipes out the Middle East before climate change finishes it off.

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"the Democratic Party is not 'left'." -- Sabrina Salvati

Hawkfish's picture

Sorry, just whistling in the dark...

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

thanatokephaloides's picture

8 - 10 nice, merciful supernukes, and West Asia passes into the dustbin of history......

Diablo Bomb

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

Cassiodorus's picture

Sorry, India.

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"the Democratic Party is not 'left'." -- Sabrina Salvati

They're a bit overpopulated anyway. Plus maybe we can get a little nuclear winter action to counteract global warming. At this rate even the Donald might get behind this whole thing, expedient fellow that he is.

I remember a passage in one of the Flashman novels where Flashy is remarking on the cruelty of the Russian elite: he was amazed that they frequently indulged in it but didn't seem to enjoy it (Flashman was a bit of a bully and therefore somewhat of a sadist). That's how I see the "very serious people": indulging in great horrors because they "must".

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WindDancer13's picture

perpetual war is affecting climate change? It seems that this upward swing that we are seeing beyond what scientists had predicted may have other causes beyond the usual culprits. There is no way that constant bombing, fires, chemicals, and disruption of the earth has no consequences (other than civilian deaths).

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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass

Of course this has an effect - I personally believe that the hyper-use of the military/weaponry/electro-magnetics has a profound effect on the weather and adds massively to greenhouse, etc., pollution - even apart from the highly polluting emissions of the masses of aircraft.

It seems appropriate that I've just found this video which I've been waiting to hear, marked as posted today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JJMlY3Go9s

Joe Bonamassa - "Blues of Desperation" OFFICIAL Music Video

Even the title fits my mood...

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

elenacarlena's picture

It's true, everyone seems to want to ignore climate change other than Jill.

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And don't forget Bernie - he'll still be bringing this up, and has left himself in the running if the obvious fact is ever acknowledged that that Clinton, Biden and the other corporate candidates are not electable, especially with the consciousness Bernie has raised across the country.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

elenacarlena's picture

his party back to Indie.

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WoodsDweller's picture

A couple of weeks ago, a new record for the eastern hemisphere, possibly for the world (as the 134 F measurement from Death Valley 100 years ago is in doubt).
Remember that official measurements are taken in the shade 5 feet above the ground. Temperatures out in the sun are much higher.
Dry bulb temperatures are an issue, of course, but of more widespread concern are wet bulb temperatures. Above 35 C wet bulb the human body can't cool itself, and you quickly develop heat stroke. High sea surface temperatures result in high humidity which, when combined with a heat dome sets up deadly conditions.
What we can expect is more frequent and widespread events of fatal (to humans, livestock, and wildlife) temperature conditions. In the short term you can try to get people into air conditioned shelters. In the longer term, people need to work outdoors to keep the world functioning. Increasing parts of the world will be too dangerous to live in.
Also of note, at 130 F the proteins in plants begin to cook, killing the plant even if it has enough water (which is almost certainly won't). A few hours, much less a few days, of such temperatures and all the plant life in the affected area will be dead. Soils won't be stabilized and desertification will rapidly follow.
We're right on the edge of all this.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Most of our major food crops, I believe. Some use a different pathway, but that has a limit, too.

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WoodsDweller's picture

It's around 100 F, and it's C3 and C4 plants (most plants that we use for food, forests, etc.). Succulents (cactus) use a different process which is less efficient, but works at a higher temperature. Thus they grow slowly.
The key point is how many daylight hours during the growing season is it over 100 F out in the fields. Too hot at night, it wouldn't be doing anything anyway. But too hot in the daytime and that's hours removed from the growing season. Too many hours lost and you have a reduced crop, or potentially, if it happens during pollination, no crop at all. This frequently coincides with a drought which gets all the blame, but even if you find enough water for the plants they just won't grow at those temperatures.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Hawkfish's picture

Here is a nice summary of the industrial effort required.

People say “this is a Manhattan Project, this an Apollo Project”. Sorry, those are science projects. Fusion is a Manhattan Project or an Apollo Project... The rest of this is more like retooling for World War II, except with everyone playing on the same team.
— Saul Griffith, on converting the world to clean energy

This is why I am moderately pro-nuke. We currently consume so much energy that we need to red-line our production of just about every energy technology we have for about two decades. Anything else will cause significant hardships among those least able to bear the burden.

Fission has a long lead time, so it may not be able to contribute much at first (and we need to finish up research on passively safe systems) but I think we are going to need "all of the above" to avoid large parts of the planet turning into the ME - and by extension into Europe.

This problem was my #1 reason for supporting Bernie, and why I am voting for Jill. Even if Hillary wasn't so venal, her gradualist instincts are totally inadequate to the problem. The Greens probably won't win, but I have kids and it is the best I can do. That and supporting I-732 here in Washington. Neither solution is adequate, but it's all I've got to work with.

Incidentally, the DOD is quite aware of the problem and has been producing risk assessments for several years now. In general, I have found that the brass these days is actually not fond of using their troops for unnecessary problems, and believe in science. I tend to differ with military types on economic issues, but they generally understand war and its risks far better than their civilian exploiters.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Cassiodorus's picture

would eliminate all of the unnecessary parasites from the economy (we can start with insurance salespeople) and thus eliminate vast quantities of energy-need from the world's energy diet.

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"the Democratic Party is not 'left'." -- Sabrina Salvati

That and doing away with trade deals which encourage transport of goods to countries already producing them - coals to Newcastle, as they used to say. Polluting and wasteful - if making extra money for the transport industry.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

Hawkfish's picture

Even with a markup of a factor of two I don't think it changes the scale of the problem a lot. But I'd love to see any numbers on that.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Cassiodorus's picture

With a global union of free producers you're replacing a vast global network (requiring worldwide transportation) with small, local trade networks. And then there are the costs our civilization pays to keep its social parasites well-funded -- they go away too. Victor Wallis put out a solid list of them in his piece "Ecological Socialism and Human Needs," written up in the journal Capitalism Nature Socialism some time in 1997. Get rid of all of the advertising infrastructure, the banking and accounting infrastructures, the insurance infrastructure, nearly all the law and military infrastructures (especially including cops, courts, judges, prisons, unnecessary "defense" infrastructure, and so on), all of the unnecessary "sports" (bye bye NASCAR), all of the suburban sprawl (who needs shopping malls when you're producing the good life by yourself -- and devote the land instead to growing crops), and so on. Add to that the fact that everyone will be living better because everyone will be part of one union of free producers or another.

As for your question: please elaborate on what you mean by a "markup of a factor of two." The average member of the privileged nations, by last calculation, has an "ecological footprint" forty-two times the size of that of the average Indian. Think of a civilization that will consume 5% of the energy ours does, while welcoming into its ranks that one-third of humanity currently excluded from its doings (see e.g. William I. Robinson, Global Capitalism and the Crisis of Humanity).

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"the Democratic Party is not 'left'." -- Sabrina Salvati

Hereticus's picture

Climate change can be mitigated, if nations are not being shock-n-awe bombed into oblivion.

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Progressive, Independent, Gnostic, Vermonter.

mhagle's picture

bringing this back to the forefront of our conversation. It is the #1 reason I was for Bernie not HRC and now back Jill Stein.

For all of us who follow the science, we know how serious this is. HRC does not get it. Mr. Trump is worse as a denier . . . I would never vote for him, but it is a toss up as to whether he would make good decisions in a crisis or poor ones. I have no doubt that HRC, with her oil ties, would be too hesitant. Actually, I think Mr. Trump would take action, but it could be stupid action . . . like spraying sulfur into the stratosphere.

We absolutely need to go green politically.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

ngant17's picture

in Revelations 16:8, the 4th angel caused the sun to scorch humanity with fire, with fierce heat.

And of course, the Fukushima events have poisoned 1/3 of the ocean (Pacific) and killed off at least 1/3 of the sea life. Probably more, but John the Baptist had no idea of the all-important lower food chain in the ocean. Revelations 8:9.

Chernobyl was the "wormwood" in the bible, but it pales in comparison to what came out of Japan and what's still coming down the road.

It doesn't take much of a poetic license to interpolate these biblical events into our current dilemma, of which there is no solution. It will get much worse and it will happen PDQ. No more polar ice caps.

Millions of small and large carbon dioxide pumps are running full blast 24/7/365 days. All of it man-made. +400ppm and rising. Ten year lag for global temps to catch up. Not even counting large-scale methane bursts, then it's all over except for the dying.

Clinton and Trump both want to push the pedal to the metal and accelerate that process. And then there's the futurists who want to escape Earth, find another planet to trash and practice war-mongering with nukes again.

There's something wrong with this picture.

Alien ETs would be wise to by-pass this planet after most life is basically extinct and after most of the runaway plutonium has dispersed and decayed in half a million years or so.

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featheredsprite's picture

The biggest issue we are facing today is climate change, not the fact that Jill Stein chose a VP candidate that seems to be about a charming as chicken pox. None of the other people running for President will do a darn thing about the climate, so Jill it is.

And I will continue working for her and the Greens.

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Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.