Fiddling While Rome Burns, a Climate Change Update

How climate change is rapidly taking the planet apart

I had just wanted to change my thoughts a little from the fiasco in Philly, then I found this terrifying article instead.

This timeline illustrates how our knowledge of global warming has evolved in the last decade. It shows how rapidly the estimates of average global temperature rise, and the dates we will reach them, have been updated:

• Late 2007: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) announces that the planet will see a one degree Celsius temperature increase due to climate change by 2100.
• Late 2008: The Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research predicts a 2C increase by 2100.
• Mid-2009: The U.N. Environment Programme predicts a 3.5C increase by 2100.
• October 2009: The Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research releases an updated prediction, suggesting a 4C temperature increase by 2060.
• November 2009: The Global Carbon Project, which monitors the global carbon cycle, and the Copenhagen Diagnosis, a climate science report, predict 6C and 7C temperature increases, respectively, by 2100.
• December 2010: The U.N. Environment Programme predicts up to a 5C increase by 2050.
• 2012: The conservative International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook report for that year states that we are on track to reach a 2C increase by 2017.
• November 2013: The International Energy Agency predicts a 3.5C increase by 2035.

What would a 3.5C increase mean for terrestrial life?

A 3.5 degrees C increase is considered to be the extinction point, because in such a world the food chain collapses, oceanic plankton dies off and these temperatures severely limit terrestrial vegetation

emphasis mine

We are now looking at a 20 year window to catastrophe. An absolute must read.

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Lily O Lady's picture

gone unmentioned by both Clinton and Trump. They're both alike in this.

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"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

CaptainPoptart's picture

From the Citi Bank Global study cited in the article;

The report considers two scenarios: “Inaction” or business-as-usual, and “Action” or reconversion to a low carbon energy mix. The researchers find that the investment costs for the two scenarios are almost identical. In fact, Action is cheaper than Inaction (the figures are respectively $190tr versus $192tr).

The only loser in the low carbon mix is the fossil fuel industry, which would disappear. Guess which side they are both supporting?

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I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings

WoodsDweller's picture

but I'm not up to documenting it all. So I'll just dump a little of it here.

The Earth has for the last 2 billion years existed in a range of global average temperatures of 12 to 22 degrees (everything in Celsius). During the PETM (Permian Extinction Thermal Maximum) this popped to 23 degrees for some reason, 90 percent of ocean species went extinct, 95 percent of terrestrial species went extinct.
Exclusive of that little detail, we are looking at a 10 degree range from ice age to hot house Earth where mammals basically can't survive. Don't think humans will still be around at 21 C, we won't be the first mammal to go extinct, but we will be far from the last.
The reporting agencies all (for some reason) report temperatures as a difference from a baseline, and there are multiple baselines in common use. Scientists are careful about which baseline they use at any given time, journalists much less so, and deniers will frequently move the goal posts by taking a different baseline.
NOAA reports the 20th century average (the baseline they most often use) as 13.9 C.
NASA frequently uses the 1951-1980 average as its baseline (except when they don't), which if my math is correct is 13.85 C.
We talk about a goal of no more than 2 C above "the preindustrial temperature". Then they use the 1880-1890 temperature as that baseline, as that is the earliest reliable instrumental (people regularly checking thermometers and recording the results across much of the land and at least some of the sea) record. NASA reports that as -0.2 against their 1951-1980 baseline, so 13.65 C. Of course, that isn't actually pre-industrial, it was 130 years into the industrial revolution. I don't know what the original goal of 2 C was supposed to be against, it was never a scientific number it was an economic number adopted by the scientific community because why not. Estimates are that the 1750 temperatures were another -0.2 C from there, or about 13.45 C.
So 12 C is an ice age, we were at about 13.45 C when Watt got his steam engine working (this is probably the optimal temperature for humans, the plant and animal communities we depend on, and human civilization), and the 20th century average was 13.9. Our 2 C goal is probably supposed to be 15.65 C (2 degrees above the 1880-1890 average).
Note that there is little difference between the 1951-1980 average and the 20th century average. Things really started to head up in the last couple of decades, but didn't pull up the average of the previous 80 years all that much.
Global average temperature in 2014 was 14.59 C, in 2015 it was 14.72 C.
The "stretch" goal of 1.5 C warming in the Paris agreement was in response to the growing consensus that 2 C will be a disaster.

From Nature 30 June 2016

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. ... The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

The plan as agreed to won't get us there. The ink isn't dry on the agreement yet.

I'm not sure that 3.5 C of warming means human extinction. Nobody knows. The numbers I use are that the die-off starts around 2 C, 4 C means no more industrial civilization, 6 C is full on human extinction. Feel free to pick your own numbers.

Back to the absolute scale:
12 C - ice age
13.5 C - ideal human conditions
14.7 C - 2015 global average temperature
15.2 C - Paris stretch goal (probably too late for this)
15.7 C - 2 degree goal (perhaps the start of the die-off)
17.7 C - no more industrial civilization
19.7 C - human extinction
22 C - top of the scale, few if any mammals exist

This year has been much hotter than 2015, but monthly averages can't be compared against annual averages.We won't know the final numbers until January, of course. Still, it would take a major cooling trend to pull them down much at this point.

From NOAA

The average global land and ocean surface temperature for January–June 2016 was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F)—the highest global land and ocean temperature for January–June in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.20°C (0.36°F).

Note that the 20th century average 15.5 C is for the January-June period, not the full year (so is different than above). The notable figure is that so far this year is 0.2 C hotter than the same period in 2015.

El Nino is over, the La Nina pattern is forming. We need to see just how much of this extra heat radiates off into space. The 1997-1998 El Nino boosted global average temperatures by about 0.15 C, then fell back about 0.1 C. We got much more than that from this slightly weaker El Nino, it remains to be seen how much cooling we see over the next few months. BTW, El Nino contributed to 2015 temperatures as well.

TL;DR - it's fooking hot and getting hotter, and it's later than you think.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Pricknick's picture

to spend so much time and effort recycling, cutting back on consumption of fossil fuels, employing water conservation principles, and spreading the word about the dire straits we're in only to watch one of my neighbors water their grass every day.
We are truly cooked.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

to the mix and it's a dead certain catastrophe.

Certain Euro countries have shown how quickly a country can convert to renewables but in the USA, no politician with a national audience will speak out and keep hammering on the existential threat we face.

The incrementalists seem to be happy that the rich will die last.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

Lily O Lady's picture

Technology is the flying unicorn of the rich and powerful. I believe they are certain that their wealth and power will buy them all the lifesaving technology they will ever need.

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"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

CaptainPoptart's picture

Was just reading an article in Rolling Stone about the multi billion dollar wall they are building around lower Manhattan. Calling it the Big U. All to protect Wall Street. Ha!ha!ha! Good luck with that

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I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings

Lily O Lady's picture

It's sure to work! Not!

Maybe a giant dome. There's plenty of money for a giant dome to save Wall Street!

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"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

they believe that their great wealth will buy protection.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

CaptainPoptart's picture

What is the baseline? We have the ExxonMobils and their political bedfellows to thank for the fact that there isn't even a common departure point for measurement.

Nevertheless the timeline I cited shows an incredible increase not only in the temperature rise, but also in the amount of time left before we reach some catastrophic point. Perhaps it's best if we just drive merrily off the cliff with no real foreknowledge. Whatever the case the end is closer than we think.

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I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings

Hawkfish's picture

The country's only carbon tax is on the ballot.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

mhagle's picture

Hope Bernie jumps on board too.

The article gives a name to something we have experienced here in Texas quite a few times this past year and a half ... "Rain bombs." And wild electrical storms. On July 4 we had a rain bomb. 4 inches in 2 hours. It was preceded by the loudest wildest thunderstorm I have ever witnessed. Freaked me out.

Mother Nature will help folks vote green. Unfortunately, it will take something spectacular to shake the shit out of some. IMO super storms on the ocean will do it. Hope not too many more people have to die first.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

mhagle's picture

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

Steven D's picture

in Philly this last week, maybe not as bad as described above, but the worse thunderstorms I've witnessed in years. And then heat and humidity that made it feel like you were taking a steam bath.

We either change or we die. It's that simple.. As Jill Stein said in her speech at the People's Convention, the solutions are out there now. We just have to have the political will to take them.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

WoodsDweller's picture

21 July the temperature (not a "feels like", but the actual dry bulb temperature in the shade) in Mitribah, Kuwait hit 129.2 F.
22 July the temperature in Basra, Iraq hit 129.0 F.

24 July at a point on the Missouri-Louisiana border hit 37.1 C (98.7 F) with 72% humidity, barometric pressure of 1013 hPa, which translates to a wet bulb temperature of 32.43 C. At a wet bulb of 35 C people can no longer lose heat by perspiring and will soon die of heat stroke.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

mhagle's picture

Alison's meetup report. Didn't she say the Atlantic ocean was dumping on you guys?

Last week they 115 degree heat index in the upper-midwest where I grew up. Unheard of! In the 60s and 70s it seldom reached 90.

Gotta vote Green.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

MarilynW's picture

I read yesterday that the Indian (East-India) diet is changing, tomatoes are being left out because they are becoming too scarce. They are too difficult to grow with the changing climate.

Where I live, the politicians continue to take arable land out of the Agricultural Land Reserve in order to give out permits for housing, roads, shopping centres.

I've read The Sixth Extinction, the only extinction that is happening so fast we can witness it. We have accelerated it and continue to do so. Most of us have made the choice not to change our lifestyles in time to slow it down.

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To thine own self be true.

dewley notid's picture

This came Jill during an interview with Democracy Now:

We’ve heard from the NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, recently. They just got an "oh, my god" report from the—from the Antarctic, which they will be rolling out written reports about soon, but this was a verbal report saying that we can expect as much as nine feet of sea level rise by 2050, unless we have a dramatic turnaround.

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Nature is my religion; the earth is my temple.

but what else is going to be able to penetrate the denial bubble that we live in? The fact that dire consequences can now be expected within the life span of people's children and grandchildren brings it a bit closer to home, but is that going to be enough for people to willingly give up the comforts, conveniences and profligate consumption that our world worships? I doubt it.

Humans are not as special as they think they are, as our collective lemming like charge off the climate change cliff amply demonstrates.

Rather than to continue buck our corrupt and disfunctional political system, I am going to explore climate change activism and outreach organizations and put my shoulder into it. I would be grateful for any suggestions. If we don't get this climate change problem addressed in a hurry, nothing else is really going to matter very much.

Voting Green this November.

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“What the herd hates most is the one who thinks differently; it is not so much the opinion itself, but the audacity of wanting to think for themselves, something that they do not know how to do.”
-Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

Look on any street. In any parking lot.

How many SUVs, and other large vehicles do we see versus smaller, more fuel efficient ones? This is just one simple and sacrifice free change most people could make but refuse to.

Sadly, I think we're well and truly fucked.

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CaptainPoptart's picture

While there are some good national organizations, (Greenpeace comes immediately to mind) I think that many of the larger organizations like the Sierra Club or the Conservation Law Foundation have a tendency to get in bed with the energy companies they should be fighting. Supporting them eventually becomes a problem because they forget who their constituents should be. I found this to be true from the perspective of a local citizens group fighting a power plant and pipeline in our town.

I don't know where you live, but there is probably a proposed fracking or crude oil pipeline running through your state. I would look into the local/citizens activist groups as an effective way to fight these projects. A google search should bring them up and these groups are always looking for help. Remember if they can't move it to refineries they have to keep it in the ground. And combined local groups have been effective in stopping them using legal remedies. Our small group of a dozen odd activists tied the power plant company up in court for three years and ended up bankrupting them.

Another area that comes to mind is pushing for individual solar or wind projects including net metering in your state legislature. State legislatures are often more accessible, for local activists. You might consider running for state rep on a Green ticket and working the system that way. Anyway those are just some ideas you might consider. I wish you good luck whatever you decide. PM me if you want to talk further.

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I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings

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“What the herd hates most is the one who thinks differently; it is not so much the opinion itself, but the audacity of wanting to think for themselves, something that they do not know how to do.”
-Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)