Another Essay on the Dilemmas of Lesser-Evil Voting
The list I created of Important dates in history for lesser-of-two-evils voters was meant largely as an effort to name the lesser evil as an evil consequence of lesser-of-two-evils voting. I've noted that all efforts to portray Hillary Rodham Clinton as a "lesser-of-two-evils" candidate fail to give a thorough examination of the evil of the candidate they're promoting. That's what the piece is about. "Strategic voting" is a mask. Rip it off, and you get the grim reality of you get what you vote for.
In April of 1932, the Germans thought that an old and chronically-ill man with Franz von Papen in his ear would make a lesser evil to Adolf Hitler. Oh, sure, the SPD and KPD people came to no agreement, and this disqualified both of themselves from even being lesser-evils. Perhaps more votes for either of those two "lesser-evil" parties could have stopped Hitler. But maybe the grave defects of both of these parties would have prevented either the SPD or the KPD from stopping Hitler anyway, and so neither of them had a chance to be a lesser evil. As Louis Proyect suggests:
Now of course we are in a period hardly resembling the final days of the Weimar Republic. The good news is that a fascist takeover is highly unlikely since parliamentary democracy is more than adequate to keep the working class under control. The bad news, on the other hand, is that the left is so inconsequential and the trade unions so weak that there is no need for fascism.
But who knows? Another decade or so of declining wages and cop killings of Black people might precipitate the rise of a left party that has learned to avoid the reformist stupidity of the German SP and the suicidal ultra-leftism of the Stalinists.
In other words, the "lesser evil" qualities of the KPD and the SPD were not just qualities which prohibited either from doing anything to stop "greater evil" -- but rather qualities which prohibited either party from attaining significant power. Perhaps if the KPD hadn't been controlled from Moscow, or perhaps if the SPD hadn't been sellouts, there would have been a meaningful lesser-evil vote there. It was clearly possible.
*****
However, today we are told that omigod we have to vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton because Donald Trump is a fascist y'know. It's not believable. The idea that Clinton might in fact be the "greater evil," however, isn't the only problem with Trump-phobia. The main reason that Trump-phobia isn't believable is that, whereas Hitler actually had a party, one with a long history of pitched battles with trade unionists, Trump pisses off his party, and milks publicity from a few fistfights at his rallies. I am also still waiting for the Donald Trump version of Mein Kampf to come out, and in the meantime the armchair intellects who debate among themselves as to whether Trump most clearly resembles Hitler or Mussolini continue in their self-absorption. Dear "intellects": nobody cares about your inability to recognize the difference between an actual fascist and a rich bully who plays one on TV.
I also think that, in his rich bulliness, Trump has the sort of flaw that prohibits him from taking power in any serious way. He became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party in 2016 because no Repub candidate was proposing anything better, and because he was getting a lot of free publicity from the news media. Today he still isn't running a campaign, which will itself become a fatal flaw in the election run-up. His selection of Mike Pence as his running mate appears as a belated recognition that he'll actually have to work with someone to get anything done in politics. This recognition will no doubt still be a work in progress by the end of Trump's first term, if he isn't impeached and convicted by then.
*****
Which brings us to the hypothesis of what Trump might do if he somehow, despite having no campaign, winds up as President. For this we might consult Stan Malinowitz, who has a piece up in Counterpunch titled The Dilemmas of Lesser-Evil Voting. Malinowitz isn't against lesser-evil voting in principle, as it turns out. He gives an example from a Colombian election. But this election is a specific case in which "voting for the lesser evil was not detracting from some better alternative that would favor long-term movement or party building." I'm sure that there are plenty of examples of ethically valid lesser evil voting in such cases. Now, as for Clinton versus Trump, well, Malinowitz thinks that:
So why not Hillary Clinton? More than anything, it´s because it’s not clear that she really is the lesser evil.
So here is Malinowitz' comparison:
Trump is clearly far worse in terms of overt racism and xenophobia and the policies that would follow from them if he were able to implement them (though not necessarily worse on structural racism), but not in his proposals for economic and social policy, where he is less neoliberal than Clinton. On foreign policy, he seems less likely to militarily intervene or invade other countries and more likely to mend relations with Russia, which is still the world´s second major nuclear power. The president of the United States is not only the leader of the nation, but the most powerful political official in the world. Those of us who want to protect Muslims in the US from Trump should also want to protect the Muslims of the world from Clinton, who is a far greater danger and is responsible for massive death and destruction mostly in the Islamic world. I don´t know of any way to measure different evils and take a balance of whether Clinton´s evils add up to more or less than Trump´s, but I do know that these are two horrible people who will do disastrous things as president, and it´s not clear that either is preferable to the other.
Of course, we don´t know what Trump would really do as president, when rhetoric turns to action – probably not all his horrible proposals, whether because he abandons them or can´t get them through Congress, and probably he would cede to domestic and foreign policy establishments in economic and foreign policies and be more mainstream than his rhetoric indicates. In other words, the differences would probably be smaller than they appear. On the other hand, Clinton is much more predictable; the horrors she would do domestically and in the world are very clear from the horrors she has actively supported or participated in during the Bill Clinton and Barack Obama administrations. Not much of an argument to vote for her, even on practical or lesser-evil grounds.
Note, here, that Malinowitz is far more serious about looking at candidates than any garden-variety Trump-phobe. In the end, he argues that Sanders is the lesser-evil who matters and that Stein is worth voting for in light of the real dilemma of American politics. With Sanders or with Stein, you are at least voting for the possibility that you might get something you want from government in return for your vote. With Trump or Clinton, not so much.
Comments
Ah, the Weimar Republic again!
Cass, I fully agree with your essay--which is as brilliant as your choices of examples. What confounds me daily since Jan, 2016 is how much the current political spectacle has brought about incessant references about the Weimar Republic, and Fascism in general. Of, course there are reasons for this, to some of which you have correctly alluded. In my bloggery (if there be such a word) both here and, gasp, at GOS, I frequently mentioned the outright fascism of both likely candidates for the White House. Some have quibbles, as you mention, such as is Trump Hitler or Mussolini (due to the bravado and pomposity, I favor the latter analogy). But Clinton is neither Hitler, nor Mussolini. She is like Stalin, deceptively violent in ways that our Pravdas do not portray, lest they too become victims of her vengeance.
Thus, in modern day Amerikkka, we will have the Orangeshirts fighting the Purpleshirts.
The definition of Fascism is a reciprocal relationship: corporate rule of the state/state promotion of corporations.
With the leavening of green (by which I don't imply environmental friendliness) yeast, either the Orange or the Purple will win--either one to the benefit of the Corporate Masters. I will leave further Godwinism out of this comment, but citing Pre-WW2 Deutschland is perfect lesson from history, not yet learned by the Powers that Be. There will be another 1945 this century.
Hillary's >
Hillary is definitely the greater evil, if for no other reason that's she's an integral part of the evil network of elite decision makers chiefly responsible for the current state of the world. Comey himself told us he can't prosecute because doing so would basically implicate an entire class of government and corporate officials worldwide.
Trump isn't a part of that cabal, so no matter how bad he might be in the White House, you'll never get the same multi-leveraged evil that Hillary brings.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
In the end,
the real reason that Hillary Clinton is the greater evil is that she's going to win.
Donald Trump has run the most utterly half-assed campaign in the history of the country. He never hired any staff, and he's incapable of working with the Republican Party. He makes up so much bullshit he can't even track of the truth himself. He's unelectable.
That having been said, and I really wish people would understand this part, he's a vile cockroach of a man.
It's been reported in a number of different outlets that simply because of Trump speaking, football teams with Hispanics have been booted off the field. There's been a raise in the occurrence of racially motivated crime in certain areas. I suspect if you looked around, you might find that some kids have been beaten up at school over their race.
Donald Trump is encouraging the ugliness of America. He is inciting race hatred. That's why I hate him.
It's certainly true that he doesn't have Hitler's resources, and I don't expect him to make it through this election at all. And I agree with everything said about Clinton.
I really hope though, that while we fight Clinton, we won't lose track of just how awful his campaign has been, and that we will refrain from make excuses for him. In the coming years, there will be terrible rampant throughout the country. People will become desperate, and people encouraged by what he's done will attempt to strike the same racist chord as they try to gain political power.
We have to be ready for them.
I meant to say
there will be terrible poverty rampant throughout the country.
This:
and yet, according the polls this is a real horse race, with Hillary ahead only a few points. Just goes to show what a terrible candidate she is.
I would have been able to tell
you in advance that this would happen at this time. It is not a real horse race, it is only made to look like it is.
Every election is the same, and yet every election people say what you just did to me. The media gets the most coverage by making every election look close at this time.
Nate Silver himself demonstrated (with math) that most polls around this period of time are always skewed in a certain direction, and then unskew closer to the end of the election.
Its unfortunate that you don't watch the process a little more closely. I have not been surprised once yet. Not once. Everything that has happened, I expected.
He will lose. It will be a crushing defeat. It will not be close. Feel free to remind me I said that later.
Nothing is normal this election
We've never had two candidates with their degrees of unfavorables and hatred by the electorate. Never.
Nate himself predicted in 07, when Hillary was beating both Obama and Edwards handily, that she would lose, based on the notion that no one had ever won with her unfavorables. He was right.
Which makes me think more and more about Trump being a Clinton plant. And that conspiracy seems even more likely with his pick of Pence, a poison pill if ever there was one for those of us who don't want to buy into the lesser of two evils bargain. My prediction is that if Trump inadvertantly comes too close to winning we'll start hearing talk about him stepping down in favor of Pence.
Trump can do everything else wrong in his effort to make Clinton look good but he can't change those of us determined to vote for neither. And neither can Clinton. This is probably why Sanders is now being given some power. I expect if the movement to reject both candidates gains momentum we'll see something like a Warren VP pick. Nothing short of that will move us and nothing short of that will keep Clinton from being impeached once she's put on her crown.
So while it's worth looking at the past to predict the future, don't forget to factor in the unprecedented qualities of this season.
Clinton is losing ground and nothing in her history predicts a win this time around and I don't think the lesser of two evils tactic she's been following is going to save her. She's losing to a man who isn't even bothering to spend money to win. Why would we consider her the favored candidate if she can't even keep her polling leads up using the resources she has at her disposal?
The Dems are playing a dangerous game of Pied Piper.
Your right.
Objectively speaking she's a pretty terrible candidate. Trump is an even worse one, and the thing about the sort of mistakes he's making is they don't usually show up in the polls immediately, they show up later.
Some other things that are completely unlike any other time is his lack of any staff whatsoever, and his total alienation from his own party. There's probably one other thing that I think dooms him.
Lots of Republicans like to cast doubt on experts. Lots of them will disparage ivory tower experts. Trump actually believes that stuff to the point that he will ignore the advice of everyone who knows better despite his total lack of experience in politics. That means he says a lot of stupid things, but it means something else too and its much more serious.
It means he doesn't know how to evaluate it when the system is employed against him. It makes it impossible for him to avoid looking like a complete ass when he gets to the debate floor. And now, he is running with a guy (Pence) who has literally only entered the national eye in order to make a fool of himself.
You guys keep coming back at me with these vague generalizations you've been fed by the media. Its ridiculous. Trump is good at making headlines and screaming, and he can use that to help himself. You also pay for that tactic, and you usually pay for it late in the election.
The remainder of this campaign won't go well for him. It isn't even going for him now. Those tightening polls were reported in a slanted way. Its a couple polls in a few states full of people who aren't paying attention to anything thats going on yet.
The press never reports it that way, because they want you on the edge of your seat thinking he could win.
OK, we'll remember that and we'll remind you
later, okay?
She is absolutely at the center of an international cabal of
corruption.
So was the next Bush.
America clamored, "no more Bushes, no more Clintons."
Because as stupid as Americans can be, most of us gathered around the fire of "no more Bushes, no more Clintons."
For as stupid as we can be, I think the collective subconscious of America wants to OUST the family/network of corruption that's been ruling this country for the last 30 years.
We are ready to leave the cabal/family/network behind... even if it presents itself as a mouthy businessman, touting the inherent corruption of politics.
I agree totally w/ Dr. Stein: Neocon/Neoliberal policy created the environment a Trump could succeed in. THEY created this.
Mr M heard on a business channel that Trump will feature
a video of WJC at the RNC convention.
If he understood it correctly, the video will include some of the alleged mistresses that foreign media has regularly associated with WJC (and written about) over the past few years.
Hate to admit it, but it's peaked our curiosity a tad.
So, we will watch some of both conventions, I'm sure.
As to your question--"Which of the two is more evil?"
Dunno.
But the prospect of either one serving as President is chilling (to me).
(Postscript: I expect that FSC's buddy, Harry Thomason, will also whip up a video for FSC--featuring DT's business exploits, and possibly an exposé on his three wives for the Dem Convention.)
Mollie
“I believe in the redemptive powers of a dog’s love. It is in recognition of each dog’s potential to lift the human spirit, and, therefore, to change society for the better, that I fight to make sure every street dog has its day.”
--Stasha Wong, Secretary, Save Our Street Dogs (SOSD)
National Mill Dog Rescue (NMDR) - Dogs Available For Adoption
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Mollie, I hope that Donald brings up the
Lolita express where bill flew with Epstein to his private island to have sex with underage girls. He went to prison and is a registered sex offender.
The girls may have been on the plane at the same time bill was on it, but either way, he did know about Epstein's pedophilia and did nothing about it.
He should have turned him in.
The other thing is that Bill was flying to have sex with other women.
Add in his past mistresses, Monica Lewinsky, Flowers, Jones and others. Then there's Hillary making those women's lives miserable.
Hillary is the greater of two evils, period!
We already know about her penchant for wars and that she doesn't care how many innocent civilians are killed, injured or had to flee their country.
Then there's her ties to the many CEOs in the banks and many other corporations.
Both Clintons are the lesser of two evils because we have already seen the damage that Bill did to the people in this country.
His welfare reform is still hurting people today because of the rules he put in place on food stamps.
Thousands of people were kicked out of the program in June, including many women and children which we keep hearing that Hillary has stood up for.
I think that the dead women and children in the Middle East would beg to differ with that statement.
Besides, what has she actually done for them in the last two decades?
Then there's tentacles from the foundation that reaches into every level of government in this country and many others.
The reason why the FBI, Lynch and Obama shut down the prosecution of her emails is because it would lead to the foundation and if the rule of law was followed, hundreds of people would go to prison.
ETA this is just one of many articles about the foundation. There are many more.
http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines-2016/fbi-insider-leaks-all-clinton-...
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
Excellent points, SD! Didn't know about more folks
being kicked out of SNAP--unless, you're speaking of the further expansion of the rule which allows for single--meaning, adults with no dependent children--'able bodied' adults, being thrown off the program.
A toxic policy from the 90s, brought to us by WJC as you mentioned.
What's wrong with these people? How is it that an adult does not need food to survive, much less to thrive!
Hey, you and your handsome pooches have a nice weekend!
Mollie
“I believe in the redemptive powers of a dog’s love. It is in recognition of each dog’s potential to lift the human spirit, and, therefore, to change society for the better, that I fight to make sure every street dog has its day.”
--Stasha Wong, Secretary, Save Our Street Dogs (SOSD)
National Mill Dog Rescue (NMDR) - Dogs Available For Adoption
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Excellent Essay with one correction.
Sanders is no longer a choice. Sanders promised in Spring to not run as an independent or third party. Sanders has conceded and actually ENDORSED Clinton. If you follow Sanders, you will vote for Clinton as he endorses. If, like me, you will not vote for Clinton, your choices are limited to Republican, Libertarian, or Green, fewer than that in many states.
So don't say Sanders or Stein. Just say Stein. Yes, she will lose, but a big boost in votes paves the way for the future. Voting for Hillary and starting an alternative reform in November after the election, just boosts her totals and INCREASES her potential for evil, because a landslide election gives her far more power.
Thank you for pointing out that Trump needs Congress and I'll add that the military will not follow blatantly illegal orders. Top Generals probably will not actively oppose him (it's illegal), but would resign instead. Mass resignations would lead the Republican Congress to impeach. Pence would become President which would be bad, but worse than Clinton? At least Pence would be opposed by Democrats and Clinton won't. Clinton as President will get opposition from Republicans but not on war and trade, where she must be stopped, because the Kochs et al, want that legislation.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Funny, I was just reading
Funny, I was just reading that Bernie had NOT conceded and was able to take it to the Convention only because he 'endorsed' Hillary - and will evidently be goading her flanks and agitated donors throughout his campaign by implying that she'd be a good President if she supported democratic principles.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Clinton would make a good President
if she were someone else.
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
Thank you, Cassiodorus! While I am still not convinced that
Trump is not the greater evil (I agree with martianexpatriate), you give me a lot to think about. The most important message I take away from this - consider the evil Trump and his followers would do to Muslims in America versus the evil Clinton and her enabled MIC would do to Muslims around the world. That's the dilemma.
Do you consider pretty much all our other Presidents and Secs of State to have been as evil as Hillary?
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Trump is not going to win.
And, as pointed out by hellinahandcart above, they created this. They're going to create even more of it, too, so eventually someone like Trump will be our President. The idea that we're going to stop Trumpism by voting for Clinton is at best a cruel joke.
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
So, vote against evil - vote
So, vote against evil - vote Green. If enough people do it (and carefully oversee the election to protest and sue over every evidence of cheating,) guess what happens?
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Thank you! You're exactly right!
What is it with all these proclamations of "it will be this way" or "you need to say thus and so that way", and "He's Not Going to Win" and "She's Not Going To Win"? Why does that kind of talk always smack of "enforcement" of sorts to me, when it starts getting banged on in repetition, in unison? WTF, people? Nobody knows unless it's completely fixed. And if you're saying it's completely fixed, show me who, what, when and where, and put up some names. Because if every last goddamn person would just stop making excuses and stop the vote shaming and demands that we must vote this or that way, and just break the damn duopoly, we could break it. There are enough of us.
Stop giving power to propaganda and propagandists with your life and that of your family.
Stop letting your head be led around by this nonsense and stop giving credit to those who insist No We Can't. We do not have to heed any of that, anymore.
Nobody thought Reagan had a chance either
but 1980 was a "perfect storm" election - as this one appears to be also - and the least competent candidate was elected and inaugurated.
Do you really think it couldn't happen again?
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Reagan barely lost the nomination in 1976 --
and thereafter spent four years preparing another run for the White House. Wikipedia:
He had a real campaign and a political party behind him. He had real political experience, too, given his years as Governor of California? Trump? Trump has no office-holding experience.
If people are going to come at me with the "Trump might win" line, I wish they'd start by reading these links:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/06/2...
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-path-victory-224228
I also wish, though this may be too much to ask, that they'd examine said links carefully.
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
Who was the greater evil to Troy?
Was it the Greeks on the battlefield or the Greeks in the Trojan Horse? Trump and other Republicans are the enemies of Troy arrayed on the battlefield; both Clintons and the rest of the neoconliberals have for decades been inside the Trojan Horse--along with most Democrats currently holding both elected and appointed offices.
Our country was tolerable between the Depression and the Clinton administration because Democrats were winning Congress almost all of the time and pushing back at Republicans. After President Clinton, both those things ceased to be true.