Why I believe Trump will NOT be a US President.
I really must pooh-pooh this notion that Donald Fucking Trump has any real possibility of winning the election.
I did use to believe this may have been a real squeaker of an election, that with the long-standing Hillary Derangement syndrome on the Right. It just seemed that maybe he would turn out to be somewhat competent.
I now officially suggest this idea is just preposterous and probably fueled MOSTLY by our dumpster-fire news organs who profit from his mayhem, and partly by DNC koolaid. The MSM has been dutifully helping the DNC koolaid for some time in the form of the character assassination of Sanders.
First: an over-arching concern is that Trumpasoreass still has to survive the RNC and that does NOT appear chiseled in stone.
Particularly, the sorts of people who have thrown themselves to the floor for Clinton appear to be very receptive to the media manipulation as evidence by the predictable terms and focus they have in participating in the character assassination of Bernie. This is what Kos's pieces on him were/are: character assassination. Those of a particular personality subtype are attracted to this mess and they thrive in it, which is why their commentary is particularly nauseating to me.
So I spend a lot of time at disqus now needling her fanbase with the idea its preposterous to assume Trump can win.
Next up: "George W Bush became president": I suppose, the fallback defense for this is "George W Bush". Which is totally fair. Let's look at that.
Bush was not as well-known when he was set up for the Republican nomination. We had all be bracing ourselves for Danny Quayle and this Bush character was a late-breaking switch.
Trump is already known and reviled. He's trumpeted (heh) by the news media more interested in selling ad space than reporting on the real world but his 'image' is soiled.
Bush was flown into office by Enron planes and with the full support of the GOP.
Trump is seemingly self-destructiong, even flaming nutjobs like Jody Breadbags Earnst won't be his running mate, repubs are indicating they aren't going to the convention, several big repubs openly revile him and so forth. Not at all like W.
[UPDATE] GOP senators literally snuck out of a back alley behind a gas station to avoid talking about Trump
It seems that the National Republican Senatorial Committee HQ building where the senators met Trump has a back alley that’s located behind a gas station that makes it a perfect place for a sneaky exit. Lesniewski figured some senators would try to escape the building using this route and caught Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and others doing just that.Republican senators emerge from a back alley behind a gas station after meeting with @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/qAhXhVdR76
— Niels Lesniewski (@nielslesniewski) July 7, 2016
Most GOP senators were reluctant to talk about their meeting with Trump on the record, although anonymous sources told The Washington Post earlier on Thursday that he lobbed threats and insults at three different senators who so far had refused to endorse him.
In other words, sneaking out of a gas station back alley was likely far more dignified than giving an accurate description of how the meeting went.
Bush's brother was governor of Florida in 2000, a powerful swing state where the election got mired down and stolen.
Trump has nobody of whom I am aware in control of any such swing state. And since FOX news appears to have had a hand in swaying network reporting, Trump has alienated FOX news as well.
Bush as not terribly reviled by the Latino demographic: They HATE Trump.
Bush was able to visit England and other countries, got some protests. The UK tried to ban trump and Scotland fucking hates him.
Then there's Trump's antisemitism (with a fresh coat, by the way) and racism: Is there anybody other than wingnuts he has not offended repeatedly?
It pains me to say so, but Trump doesn't even have Bush's political abilities.
And really, nobody - not Obama, not Clinton, not Biden - nobody is doing a more better job of destroying Trump than Trump. He leads the others by a comfortable margin. Obama couldn't do to Trump what Trump has done to Trump.
I truly and totally doubt he will ever be POTUS.
Now, the DNC has trained its fans to equate any positive comment about Bernie to mean that whoever said it is voting for Trump. This is part of the character assassination and the trolling/bullying the DNC wants its fans to do.
The DNC has created, to me, a nutty situation in which people are to Be Very Afraid of trump because because because and then gushing about how awesome she is and how big her lead is over him.
The All Trump Al the Time is to encourage people to continue to DONATE MONEY to her election. IF people became complacent it stands to reason that donations would taper down. Can't have that.
ATAT also smothers any real policy discussion, tries to cover over the apparently legitimate concerns raised by the 'email thing'. Whether that has any merit or not, ATAT helps keep the words out of many people's mouths who are just too busy foaming at the mouth about a trump presidency that seems most unlikely.
I truly don't think it's gonna happen.
Comments
He never intended to win.
He never intended to win. Ratchet up the crazy and people vote for his friend.
What about election fraud?
According to Palast, red states have a stripping plan in place. Remember FL and OH are red.
A 30 min video worth the watch. You'll never believe in honest US elections again.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpJOpctkFQM]
My point is we assume real counts, but that may not be the case. Prez T-rump may already be programed into the machines.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
This is how I am approaching all these concerns
IF her lead is truly large, which I think it will be by Novemeber, then there's no real worries. I may not even have to vote for her.
IF for whatever reason it's a squeaker, I vote for her to prevent a GOP presidency. I get bitching rights going forward.
If there is serious election fraud and such and he makes it into the White House, it's simply proof our voting is of little actual consequence, no matter what we have had screamed at us our entire lives.
We SHOULD be gambling amongst ourselves on whether he makes it through the RNC....
Hold on there
If you vote for her and she wins I strip you of all bitching rights when she starts with her perverse antics. Who am I you ask? I am the gatekeeper of bitching rights and general discontent. I, OTOH, am not voting for her therefore I stake my claim to bitch when she starts lying and waging war on people who's primary language is Farsi.
I'm gonna have to agree with fugwb
if you vote for her and she wins you don't get "bitching rights", you get a "sucker" sign to hang around your neck.
Anybody who doesn't like her can have "bitching rights", whether or not we vote for her. In fact, not voting for her and then complaining is possibly more valid.
By the way (to fugwb) I finally decoded your user name. Other options which you probably would consider now are fubho and fuhrc.
I think he's closer than we believe
It will all depend on who controls the machines, and I think the Rethugs have more practice at stealing elections. He will beat her head in with the emails and foundation scandals, enough to keep it close. So yes el presidente Drumpf is a real possibility.
I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings
Right.
All he has to do is keep Clinton from winning any of the swing states, which will require running the semblance of a real campaign by employing the assistance of people who have already decided they don't like him anyway.
You know, little stuff like that.
"the reason you need a new class to come into power in the United States is because this one is useless" -- Vijay Prashad
Please note
I get it, and if he were a traditional candidate and part of the establishment that discussion point would be very validate. However, Trump is his own animal and master showman and this line works to his advantage- everyone is against him because he wants to break the system. Therefore, do not underestimate him because you could wake up to realize he is your next president.
Please remember he beat 16 candidates to win his nomination (several of which were truly supported and primed establishment candidates). He accomplished this feat without a professional organization he received the most republican primary votes ever.
For me, I am voting for third party candidates from now on and encourage others to do so as well. This election cycle has taught me they are just exclusive clubs that continue to enrich themselves, break laws, and do not care about us (except when they want something from us).
Try to remember --
how Obama beat Romney -- by running a campaign of anti-Romney advertising in the swing states. Clinton runs a campaign of anti-Trump advertising in the swing states, and Trump is not going to be able to fight back.
As for Trump being a "master showman," consider that Clinton has the power to control the media far and above what any of the Republicans can muster.
"the reason you need a new class to come into power in the United States is because this one is useless" -- Vijay Prashad
Thanks but I disagree
First, let me state thank you for the post and information, but I do not agree. Please note I am not a Trump supporter and despise him. For the stake of transparency, I hate Hillary as well- she is a bad and self serving liar and fraud while smiling to your face. However, the following are my reasons to counter your point about Trump (not sure if he will be president but it will be down to the wire).
First and foremost too many people have underestimated Trump- how many people laughed at him and said no way, all the experts and pundits. His political death has been predicted many times. Even the great Nate Silver (by the way this is sarky remark, you get lucky and now your a genius in our society), predict 7 times that Trump would not be the nominate- wrong on each account. Too many people underestimate him and that is a big freaking mistake. Secondly, he gins up the crazies and disenfranchised. Look at his rallies, he still holds them and many people come out to support- people that have not voted in forever will vote for him. This leads into my third point, the celebrity factor- look at the celebrities that have been elected- Venture, Schwarzenegger, and Reagan. In every one of their elections they were discounted by the establishment and traditional politicians- matter of fact they were dismissed as being fringe candidates, but each one won each time based on a populist factor and people that do not follow the race vote for him because "he was on TV" (in my best hillbilly voice). Another point is the "The silent majority", there are many people out there that support or even willing to take a chance on him because "what the heck, we can not do any worse for this country- we are stuck in a rut"- too many people have been left behind and see no other option. Another factor, Hillary is a freaking poor candidate, even with everything working in her favor- she is just barely leading Trump in the polls- this one will go down to the wire due to her incompetence. Finally, the most important point, is the enthusiasm factor- Trump supporters will go out and vote for him no matter what, while Hillary support are not passionate and they think she has it in the bag no need to vote for her. i.e. Brexit example.
One more item, please never underestimate any opponent, because that is a bad behavior. Too many Clinton supporters are all ready doing victory laps.
By the way, if I am wrong that is okay, but I will prepare for the worse and hope for the best.
I agree with your analysis. We all underestimated him from the
very start.
He is a carnival huckster and just like Barnum he knows how to bring in the suckers.
America has a LOT of suckers.
The only thing I may differ with you in is that I think Trump would be less damaging to the cause in the long term than a Clinton presidency would be.
I am seriously considering if he is close in Florida holding my nose but for him not her.
If it's not close I will vote for Stein for sure. (Which is the most likely course I will take anyway, but I am not closing off any options at this point.)
I will be interested to see the arguments put forth on the TYT debate they will be hosting about this, I can't wait for that one.
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
I agree
it would be unwise to underestimate Trump.
At this point, I also agree, that Clinton is quite possibly a worse choice than Trump.
That said, I will never vote for $hillary or Trump.
Jill Stein is already on the ballot, here in Florida. I see no reason to not vote my conscience.
Yeah, I am in Florida too, and it is a bit hypocritical of me
because I said I wouldn't vote for Clinton to prevent a Trump presidency because I refused to vote strategically anymore and only vote my conscience.
That being said, I am legitimately scared, but of Clinton not Trump... This is coming from a man that doesn't scare easily, people have commented about how oddly little fear or excitability I expressed in combative or otherwise dangerous situations, I almost become detached or robotic according to them, at least until after the fact, then I go from detached to trembling, lol! I am not used to being fearful and so far I am not a fan of it.
But the more corruption I see in the Democratic Party (I thought we were supposed to be the "Good Guys"?) the less confidence I have that anything short of a total meltdown and collapse of the rigged political system will bring about the necessary change.
That's the only positive I can see from a Trump presidency is that it may bring that about in a non-violent fashion, or at least less violent than an outright civil war or mass insurrection.
It's either gonna be that or lots and lots of blood I think. I really don't want to have to be in a situation where I have to use my relatively meager skills and training against my fellow citizens just to keep myself alive in a damned civil war, and it is looking more and more like it could come to that.
We have gotten complacent. We think those massively destructive forms of civil unrest we have seen in other countries fighting against their corrupt systems can never happen here, but I am becoming unfortunately quite confident that that is the direction we are heading.
Watch that documentary "The Square", If you haven't already seen it. It's about the uprising in Egypt. The same could easily happen here and it could be our own young leading it just as theirs did, because much like the youth of Egypt they too feel they have nothing to lose and no real hope that things will change on that front in the future.
People with nothing to lose are always the most desperate and dangerous of foes.
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
It doesn't matter whether he runs or another
republican runs. It doesn't matter anymore. Hillary is going to do what republicans want to have done, anyway, so it doesn't matter. Look at the Dems who voted for the non-labeling of GMOs. Next time a crappy bill comes up like this, it will be other Dems who will be against it. It's just all a sham.
Don't know
No one thought Reagan would win either. The guy came off as beyond untrustworthy with the nuclear switch. Yet he won. Trump has a lot of support here in my blue state. We are not all that blue but have voted republican in the past last time was Reagans first term. The west coast factor helped him in that. But Trump is speaking in North Bend tonight about a three hour drive from here half of my coworkers are attending and taking tomorrow off.
Reagan actually spent a fair amount of time
going around the country and campaigning. Trump just likes to open his mouth and piss people off.
I have yet to see an organized argument rebutting all of the substantiated arguments revealing no Trump possibility. Let's review:
1. Trump has no serious campaign for November.
2. Trump has pissed off his party (you know, the folks who controlled Ohio's voting machines in 2004) past the point of no return.
3. Neither 1. nor 2. appears to be headed for change any time soon, as Trump is self-absorbed and narcissistic and thus does not do about-faces or corrections.
4. Clinton's followers do not care about the many colorful things that are wrong with her.
This is not to say that this diary really lays out the best case for why Trump won't be President. It doesn't. But if any of you want to get into any of the particulars one through four above, then maybe we'll have a real debate.
"the reason you need a new class to come into power in the United States is because this one is useless" -- Vijay Prashad
I won't refute your 4 reasons why Trump is a no go, but...
…I had already ruled out a Trump win, since I had a hard time "seeing" him nominated by the GOP. In fact, I see a different scenario at the Republican Convention, with a different nominee.
Nonetheless, I respectfully submit that I also see a pre-emptive move past your four reasons that Trump loses. In fact, if Trump comes out of the RNC with the nomination, I'm thinking it might be Brexit on Steroids in the US in November.
I'm basing Trump's possible win on one of the strongest political trends I've ever seen — the human revolt against the disastrous, killing outcomes of 40 years of neoliberal policies that have seriously harmed society, diminished people's lives in tragic ways, and crushed their children's futures — all for the sake of globalism and empire and corporate sovereignty and the wars they rode in on.
The votes flocked to Trump in the primaries because the voters wanted to overthrow the Republican Establishment. The GOP lost, the people won, and they're ready to rumble again. No, not for the Presidency. The people are voting to kill the Establishment once and for all. Analysts are not picking up on the overwhelming force of an idea whose time has come. These votes aren't about the Party and Trump is not a Republican. That's a clue right there.
The other side of the coin is that the Democrats waged war for the same thing: the overthrow of the Establishment. But their guy lost, they were stripped of representation in the Federal government, and that's unacceptable. Now their votes aren't about the Party and Sanders is not a Democrat anyway. The other shoe dropped.
Now the political Parties are largely neutralized and you have the Millennials and Independents moving toward solidarity with this massive reach for personal freedom and security — a government of, by, and for the people. How'd they lose the only thing worth having?
So you got Hillary representing the "Establishment" in all its corrupt, greedy, sociopathic, and deceitful glory, competing against Trump, who knows how to say the words that an enslaved people need to hear. Plus he stands on the Left side of everything that can stop the people's economic pain and restore the futures that the neoliberal, One-Percent took from them.
This is where your four arguments come into play. In any other election at any other time, they are solid arguments. But this time, the Establishment and their Bots are standing on the outside looking in, with a smaller percentage of total votes.
I imagine a chaos vote might just flip everything. Did that convince you?
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
It reinforced my belief that Trumpism will eventually win.
But I was already convinced of that. I think Clinton can hold off Trumpism long enough to attain the White House, and after that, well, in 2020 someone smarter than Trump will carry Trump's message and win.
"the reason you need a new class to come into power in the United States is because this one is useless" -- Vijay Prashad
it's all up for grabs right now.
When neither party can count on more than 30% solid support (and even those numbers are probably inflated - certainly the Dems after this cycle), the strong plurality 40% -50% of non-affiliated voters are anybody's for the taking.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
It's all a scam. Trump is self destructing because that's
the deal he made with Hellery. Either way, the Republican agenda will be implemented. If for some reason Trump were to get to close to actually winning, the Clinton machine will pull the same bullshit pulled on Bernie.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020