The meaning of Brexit, and beyond
Leave it to a comedian to cut through the bull. In this case it is Ricky Gervais doing the honors.
Obviously that's an oversimplification, but it contains more truth than what was coming out of the Remain camp of late.
The irrepressibly mediocre Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, posing as a “historian”, had warned that Brexit, “could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but Western political civilization in its entirety”
Tusk wasn't alone. Prime Minister David Cameron went into full scaremongerry, the-end-of-the-world mode. He wanted the voters to curl up in the fetal position in a total panic instead of voting to leave the EU.
Protections for state pensions, the NHS and defence spending cannot be guaranteed if Britain leaves the EU, David Cameron has warned.
The Prime Minister said the strain on the public finances caused by Brexit would threaten the end of the "triple lock" guarantee for OAP payments and the ring-fencing of health funding.
And Chancellor George Osborne said the armed forces could see their budgets slashed by £1-£1.5 billion a year as the wider economy shrank.
Normally this is a good strategy. The public usually responds to fear rather than hope.
The problem happens when the public stops believing you.
It didn't have to go this way. The Remain crowd could have taken the high road, but once you start down Scaremongerry Road there aren't many exits.
When prosperity, wealth and peace might have been framed as both arguments and aspirations, the Remain team decided that mocking critics as bumpkins, village hicks and extremists was the way to go.
That's not to say the Leave crowd didn't make this stereotyping easy.
“Vote Leave” ran posters depicting crowds of Syrians and endless ads on Turkish birthrates. “None of this needs decoding,” wrote Philip Stephens of the Financial Times, “The dog whistle has made way for the Klaxon. EU membership talks with Turkey, we are to understand, will soon see Britain overrun by millions of (Muslim) Turks—most of them thugs or welfare scroungers.”
“There is great disorder under heaven. The situation is excellent.”
— Chairman Mao
The thing is you are making a huge mistake to judge something like this based on a single data point.
To put this another way, do you really believe that all Hillary supporters are comfortable with her ties to Goldman Sachs? And that this was their motivation for voting for Hillary? Of course not.
I know its become popular for liberals online to portray everyone that disagrees with them on the right as an irrational racist, but doing so just exposes themselves as the Tea Party of The Left. People on the inside know better than to stereotype millions of Brexit supporters as such.
”This is just the tip of the iceberg,” Greenspan said in an interview on CNBC. “The global economy is in real serious trouble.” The rejection of British voters of the status quo in Europe was fueled by a “massive slowing” in the growth rate of real incomes that is widespread across Europe, Greenspan said. This, he said, is creating serious political problems that are not easy to resolve. Behind the slowdown in income is the sharp drop in worker productivity, according to Greenspan. Governments have to cut entitlements to reflect this weakness, he said.
The biggest concern is not a recession, but stagnation, the former Fed chief said. “The euro-area…is failing,” Greenspan said. “Greece is in real serious trouble and it is not going to continue in the euro very much longer irrespective of what is going on currently,” he said. Asked what he would do if he was still Fed chief, Greenspan said: “I would worry.”
Before I go any further, I'm going to say that I don't know if Brexit will turn out to be a good thing or a bad thing, because the outcome will depend on political decisions that have not been made yet. What's more, anyone online who tells that they do know is either lying to you or themselves.
What I do know is who supported Brexit - Britain's working class - and who opposed it - the neoliberal political and financial elite.
Given a choice between those two, it's a no-brainer for me. I stand proudly with Britain's working class.
What it all means
There are four elements to understanding the significance of Brexit:
What is the EU
What does Brexit actually do
It's effect on British politics
It's effect on European politics
Just one week before the Brexit vote, an important, but largely ignored event happened.
Politicians in Switzerland have voted to withdraw the country's long-standing European Union application, a week before Britain decides on its own EU membership.
Thomas Minder, counsellor for Schaffhausen state and an active promoter of the concept of 'Swissness,' told Neue Zürcher Zeitung he was eager to 'close the topic fast and painlessly' as only 'a few lunatics' may want to join the EU now.
A total of 27 members of parliament's upper house voted to invalidate the 1992 application, backing up an earlier decision by the lower house. Only 13 senators voted against while two abstained.
The vote wasn't even close. Nor was the decision in question when Iceland dropped their EU application last year.
Is everyone in Europe becoming irrational racists? Or are there real problems with the structure of the EU, where the real power is held by unelected technocrats that push a neoliberal agenda?
You can decide that for yourself.
So what does Brexit actually do? I mean besides cause "the beginning of the destruction of Western political civilization in its entirety”.
The UK not only will lose duty-free access to the EU’s single market of 500 million people; it will have to renegotiate every single trade deal with the rest of the world since all of them have been EU-negotiated. French economy minister and presidential hopeful Emmanuel Macron has already warned that, “if the UK wants a commercial access treaty to the European market, the British must contribute to the European budget like the Norwegians and the Swiss do. If London doesn’t want that, then it must be a total exit.” Britain will be locked out of the single market – to which over 50% of its exports go — unless it pays almost all that it currently pays. Moreover, London must still accept freedom of movement, as in European immigration.
With all due respect to Ricky Gervais, this is a big deal. However, it is anything but an insurmountable deal. Norway (which rejected the EU in 1995) and Switzerland exist outside of the EU with independent trade deals and don't seem to mind at all. And do you really think that European politicians and financial leaders can afford to lose access to the huge British market? They will move mountains to make new deals as quickly as possible.
There will be a difficult transition period of two or three years, but that's about it. There will be some long-term losers from Brexit.
The City of London – the undisputed financial capital of Europe — also manages a whopping $1.65 trillion of client assets, wealth literally from all over the planet. In Treasure Islands, Nicholas Shaxson argues, “financial services companies have flocked to London because it lets them do what they cannot do at home”.
Unbridled deregulation coupled with unrivalled influence on the global economic system amount to a toxic mix. So Brexit may also be interpreted as a vote against corruption permeating England’s most lucrative industry.
Things will change. Drastically. There will be no more “passporting”, by which banks can sell products for all 28 EU members, accessing a $19 trillion integrated economy. All it takes is a HQ in London and a few satellite mini-offices. Passporting will be up for fierce negotiation, as well as what happens to London’s euro-denominated trading floors.
Not so much Britain as London itself is going to lose from Brexit.
For instance, one of the very BIG losers from Brexit is those pushing TTIP.
Britain's looming exit from the European Union is another huge setback for negotiations on a massive U.S.-EU free trade deal that were already stalled by deeply entrenched differences and growing anti-trade sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic.
The historic divorce launched by Thursday's vote will almost certainly further delay substantial progress in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) talks as the remaining 27 EU states sort out their own new relationship with Britain, trade experts said on Friday.
With French and German officials increasingly voicing skepticism about TTIP's chances for success, the United Kingdom's departure from the deal could sink hopes of a deal before President Barack Obama leaves office in January.
What a damn shame. A huge corporate giveaway trade deal gets hurt by Brexit. Allow me to shed a single tear.
As for British politics, that's more complicated.
No one on the left enjoyed seeing the images of the odious Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson celebrating Brexit, but let's be realistic. UKIP has exactly one member of parliament and a relatively low approval rating.
More importantly, UKIP had only reason for existence - anti-EU. Their victory just made UKIP politically irrelevant.
As for the Tories, they saw the political careers of their two leaders, Chancellor George Osborne and PM David Cameron, destroyed. How can that possibly be spun as something positive? Who else is there? Michael Gove, the guy nobody likes?
As for Labour, that's the most complicated of all.
Labour Party head Jeremy Corbyn chose to endorse the “remain” campaign, but also to point out that the EU is an undemocratic organization whose financial policies have spread poverty and unemployment throughout the continent. However, because the trade groups have a progressive stance on climate change, equal pay, work hours, vacations, and maternity leave, Corbyn argued—if somewhat tepidly—that all in all, it was best to stay in and try to reform the organization.
Labour was on the wrong side of this vote, but with one foot in and one foot out. How this plays out is beyond my ability to say.
Finally, there is the rest of the EU. This is the most interesting aspect, and the reason why the scaremongering is continuing. They fear contagion.
Populist and Eurosceptic parties across Europe moved to capitalise on the UK’s decision to vote for Brexit by congratulating Britain on its vote for “freedom” and calling for referendums on EU membership to be held in their own countries....
A recent survey by the Pew Research Centre found that only 38 per cent of France had a favourable view of the EU, marking an astonishing negative shift in attitudes towards Brussels since the 2009 financial crisis that has been mirrored to varying degrees all across Europe.
A poll last month by Ipsos-MORI found that nearly half of voters in eight European Union countries want to be able to vote on whether to remain members of the bloc, with a third saying they would opt to leave, if given the choice.
You wouldn't get such huge percentages of people being against the EU is they were doing their job correctly. France is of particular concern because if they leave the EU, then it'll be just Greater Germany.
Eventually there will be more Brexit votes. Or to put it another way...
However, before you worry about any of these possible events you should note what is happening tomorrow in Spain.
Following tight on the heels of the Brexit vote, Spanish legislative elections on Sunday (June 26) are an important test of how much further disarray the European electorate’s frustrations will inflict on those committed to holding the region together....
A poll taken last week indicates that an alliance between Podemos and fellow left-wing party United Left (IU), led by the charismatic Pablo Iglesias, could clinch a majority of parliamentary seats on Sunday. Such an explosive development would confirm anxieties of a Europe swept up in a wave of fringe politics.
And the trend is hardly limited to Britain and Spain. The anti-establishment Five Star movement won control of two major Italian cities on June 19 with the election of Virginia Raggi and Chiara Appendino to the mayorships of Rome and Turin respectively.
Spain's vote could be huge, putting even more pressure on the sclerotic EU to reform or be replaced.
Comments
A rewrite for our presidential race ...
And as always, you delivered a great essay. Thanks for helping to make Brexit and its surrounding hoopla clearer.
Next up, DemExit.
I can't wait for Karma to happen.
Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.
The moment they cue the music
The Dems don't still use "Happy days are here again", do they? Or is that reserved for taking back the White House form Repubs? Wouldn't seem right here, so what coronation anthem will they choose?
"If I sit silently, I have sinned." - Mossadegh
Brexit is certainly unpopular at TOP
Just another reason to support it.
Personally I think Brexit is good for democracy, which is more important than any economic reason IMHO.
BTW, I just put this up on TOP. Probably wasted my time doing so.
It is not good for me.
I thought I prepared for retirement. Never, ever did it occur to me that my cushion would deflate with yet another market crash.
Look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see, and wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. Stephen Hawking
Wall St. has many hostages indeed
That was the whole reason...
...that the Neoliberal elites trashed traditional define-benefit pension plans and replaced them with Wall Street-run, profit-sucking 401k plans; it was to convince the little people that they were suddenly members of the ownership class, and as such, get them to vote against their own self-interest and in favor of Wall Street's self-interest 100% of the time. Does anyone believe that this happening at the exact same time as the television program Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous rising to mega-popularity was a coincidence? If so,I've got some nice, Vintage 2006 Mortgage-Backed Securities you may be interested in. I'll let them go really, really cheap too...
I want my two dollars!
Excellent diary!
I do have one gripe though, that the richest 400 people didn't lose anything yesterday. They still own the stock and will still received dividends and only the moments spot value of that holding changed, but really they lost nothing. You only lose money on a stock when you sell it for less than paid, not when the price drops and the rich don't need to liquidate from fear like average people.
(I love the edit function)
The prize is not
stocks and dividends - it's real property and businesses they own/control. They'll lose money on paper temporarily just like any of us who have financial and retirement investments. They may even lose more but with a bigger piece of the pie and the know how/connections available to them will get it all back in spades. Their financial lives won't be ruined unlike the rest of us. The promise of neoliberalism is that every disaster has it's profit if you're positioned properly to take advantage of the opportunity.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
Not only that, but hey gain from these kinds of drops
because if anything goes too low they just move money from bonds and buy it up and gain when it bounces back.
US role...
I thought this take was interesting.
Published on Jun 24, 2016
Michael Hudson argues that military interventions in the Middle East created refugee streams to Europe that were in turn used by the anti-immigrant right to stir up xenophobia
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-MraD1Ys3Q]
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
So Madame President could be responsible for
destroying the EU (if elected and not convicted, that is).
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Truer than most realize.
In light of the recent Brexit vote, I'd been thinking that the anti-immigrant element, though real, is a media trumped-up side-show inadequate to explain how widespread the discontent really is, in the UK as well as here in the US. Most Brits are not racists. The real basic irritant that voters acted on in Brexit was a rejection of Western neoliberal policies - free trade, austerity, interventionism and its resultant outflow of refugees.
Here are 2 Brexit-related articles I think you'd find at least interesting and don't take much time to read. Both, for the most part, closely reflect my own views, but explain them with much more clarity than I ever could.
One by one of my favorite investigative analysts, Robert Parry, who seems to have confirmed the neoliberal backlash .
and on Robert Parry's referral, an essay by Daniel Lazare on the relative risks of Trump vs Clinton as President, and what the upset of Brexit reveals about the reality of UK and US voters' motivations.
"If I sit silently, I have sinned." - Mossadegh
As national leaders increasingly rely on the politics of fear
it feel like a desensitized global population that's sick of seeing their standard of living decline while the rich get richer has replied, "Let it burn." We're at the point where trying anything is better than the status quo, especially for those who have nothing left to lose.
Excellent essay
The sky is falling and it's because because old, nationalistic, ignorant, jack booted hooligan racist, bigoted, fascists, haters of immigrants are going to rule the world. Le Pen! Oh my god my 401 plan is gone! The Russians are coming! Farage won! Thanks gjohnsit I needed this essay as the Chicken Little cacophony is deafening.
I figured out why TOP is against Brexit
All the arguments have a common theme: "The conservatives are going to do X, and that scares me."
It's an echo of "Vote for the Dems because the GOP is scary."
Will the Tories do X? Maybe. Maybe not.
No one really knows. But I seriously doubt that the EU was stopping the Tories for all these years.
The Democrats are fear mongering...
They're already like Republicans in a myriad of other ways so now they're openly fear mongering too.
Democrats are like an enforcer breaking your knees telling you you better do what's best or they'll give you to the other enforcers over there who are going to break your knees too.
We have a single party system. One party supports business, works against the people, ships jobs out of the country, thinks free trade is good 'for everyone', applauds money in politics, and won't support the working class. The other party is the Republicans.
There are two teams in this country though, since politics has been reduced to a team sports mentality. Team politics. Team - The American people.
Both teams are more oppositional than ever since team politics plays for the wealth and business classes in every game even if some of their cheerleader squad sometimes roots for the people as a joke.
The parties may not be the same, but they are far more alike than different. The differences on a few social issues mean nothing when both squads in team politics only truly bother to represent the wealth and business classes.
??. Generally, TOP is "the conservatives", but not too
reactionary overall.pristine waters off the San Barbara Coastpristine waters off the San Barbara Coast
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
401k gone because Brexit
Heard this asshole guy at work say that Friday morning. Yes, the market took a hit like it does every time anything happens anywhere. It goes up the same way. Maybe I don't understand the stock market, but unless he cashed out before the market went back up, his 401k is fine.
He's an asshole anyway, but I rolled my eyes when I heard him say that.
Inquiring minds want to know...
did you have to poke yourself in the eye to shed that "single tear"? Slam a hammer down on your thumb? Jamb your hand in the blender?
Thanks very much for the information. It clarifies a number of things for me that other sources were not making clear.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
It's one of my talents
I can cry on demand.
Greenspan
Right, respond to the massive slowing in real incomes by cutting entitlements, a form or income or a surrogate for income. Nothing reverses the stagnation in income faster than cutting income. Greenspan gives Europe this advice for free. We had to pay for it.
Stagnant real wages have been a constant through periods of declining growth in productivity and periods of surging growth.
He's still alive?
Love that linkage of entitlements to productivity. If productivity increases, cut market-distorting entitlements, if it goes down, cut overpriced entitlements. Gotta hand it to him though, he falls off the horse and gets right back up.
Naked Capitalism has an interesting discussion
about it also. I loved this bit that Yves Smith embedded.
It's only 4 minutes, 17 seconds long
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwK0jeJ8wxg width:560 height:315]
Don't believe everything you think.
Loved it. Thanks.
"As I tell American hedge fund managers, 'the Hamptons is not a defensible position. It's hard to defend a low-lying beach. Eventually, the people will come for you'." Brilliant.
"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey
That was a great video
Thanks for sharing it
The foundation on which the EU
is built was seriously flawed. It is a business centered, primarily financial/monetary and trade, governing organization. It lacks the political structure and power to actually govern. I think of it like our founders remedy to the Articles of Confederation being a central bank and trade agreements. This was always going to happen and the original proponents knew it. They gambled that political reconciliation and unification across Europe would follow the fall of the USSR. Nope, didn't happen. Now with chunks of the wall falling down nobody can ignore them.
Poor economic conditions for most of the people of the EU and an inability to adequately solve a widening immigration disaster, directly caused by no political power much less will, have the average EU citizen enduring worsening living standards. They're pissed and not willing to take it unlike the colonials westward across a big pond. The working class in Europe has shown itself to be fighters and I don't know what will bring them back in line that doesn't involve throttling the EU bankers' golden goose.
I really don't think the bankers can help themselves. I think they've become too used to the profits from corruption aided by a lack of effective enforcement of banking regulation. The EU governing bodies are as captured as our government but without the power to suppress popular uprising against it. I have no doubt they'd love to stick it to the UK for this vote but as soon as the British banks want new banking agreements and the government wants new trade deals they'll get them. Can't miss a fix doncha know. I've heard of talks already in progress.
All taken together I totally agree this has way too many moving parts to predict an outcome. I'm guessing a lingering mess leading to a collapse of the EU. I can't see the leadership putting it back together without huge changes. I also don't see the people of the member countries being the slightest bit willing to go along with a reconciliation. The only prediction I'll venture is that the bankers will profit from anything that happens and the average European is going to get fucked royally. Oh, that pond isn't going to insulate us all that much either.
Thanks gjohnsit for the best description I've seen yet of the situation and issues. I seriously doubt we'll see anything that compares in the media beyond "Squirrel!!!"
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
On one subject I disagree.
The widening immigration problem was caused by political and military power. War plays hell on those who can least afford it.
More of the same and likely worse under a Clinton regime.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
That was poorly worded. You're right.
I tried to make two points in one sentence and failed badly.
War, as you point out, pursued by the US and their allies in the GWOT is definitely the direct cause of the emigration of millions from war ravaged areas. The "widening disaster" is the responsibility of the EU and the host countries in Europe. The EU set a policy accepting refugees, certainly the morally correct one, without the informed consent of,and likely without honest consultation with, the host nations. I think it is similar to unfunded mandates our congress loves so much under Republican control. High and mighty decisions without adequate planning, funding, and support in execution. The hosts surely felt pressure to do as the EU wanted but have been essentially left holding the bag when it all went sideways. The citizens sure as hell feel put upon and threatened whether their individual governments freely agreed or not to take so many refugees. It must be infuriating to have the US act like it is the EU's problem to solve. I should have known one sentence wouldn't work.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
And the 'immigration' disaster
is a political disaster fanned by the usual suspects. The EU and host nations can handle the refugees, and many actually need an influx of people of working-age to help their demographic imbalances and support their social services. The combined xenophobia and terrorism-panic make these immigrants into an issue the right wing can use, as always, to rally the poor non-immigrants to political upheaval that avoids targeting the elites.
Perhaps its best to blame the CAUSE of immigration disaster
Which nation is deliberately destabilizing the Middle East and much of the world in its quest for Tolal Global Empire under its own Rule?
The US did that for Empire — at the request of its silent partners in the region.
The US is directly responsible for every single one of the first four groups of refugees.
They belong to the US. Not to the EU.
Let's move all the willing to where they belong — inside the US. Once they are fully cared for, then we can check back and see how the EU is doing.
Or as the name-callers would say:
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Yes.
Thanks so much for linking/expounding on the crisis, and for nailing the responsibility issue, and Aljazeera for compiling the info, too. I've been hammering on the US/Clinton-assisted Ukraine debacle for some time now (and thanks to Robert Parry at Consortium News for being a nearly-lone voice in covering this), but I had not realized the refugee crisis it has created.
If I may dust off and inject some truth into a Reaganism....."Hillary Clinton is not the solution to our problem. Hillary Clinton IS the problem."
"If I sit silently, I have sinned." - Mossadegh
Let me give you another Hillary-ready Reagan quote:
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm Hillary Clinton and I'm launching a humanitarian Intervention."
I thought her Libya gambit was the most obscene war crime of my lifetime, but Hillary and her State Department Harpies exceeded even that in Ukraine, bringing the world to the threshold of war.
Aljazeera reported on it, but the record-breaking annual report was released by the esteemed Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) out of Switzerland.
https://www.nrc.no/what-we-do/speaking-up-for-rights/internal-displacement/
http://www.internal-displacement.org/assets/publications/2016/2016-globa... [PDF]
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
British vs. English
One insightful commentary by one smart guy I heard on CNN was that those who prefer to call themselves English voted for Brexit and those who call themselves British voted to stay. I lived in London over 1 year back in 1979, 4 years after the 1st referendum when 2/3 voted to stay and I vaguely remember this dichotomy.
I highly recommend watching this Rachel Maddow segment where she discusses how Brexit represents a break with the vision of Winston Churchill. Churchill must be spinning in his grave.
Then again Trump and Putin are celebrating with the older English.
The political revolution continues
Churchill may have won the war
but he was a staunch elitist conservative economically that the Brits made him stand down after the war was over.
And a racist and is well remembered in India
as a mass murderer allowing the starvation of millions while India was a colony.
"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"
Churchill was a great war leader, BUT
he was also an elitist right winger who would love to consolidate power across Europe for the ruling class. England got rid of him after the war and instituted the National Health Service. Good for England. I don't blame them for not following his counsel now,either.
Twain Disciple
Was Churchill talking about the good old days...
of the House of Hapsburg?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Habsburg
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
Crossover Labour Vote:
31% in favor of Brexit, even with Corbyn's Remain endorsement.
Brexit doesn't win without disaffected lefties.
Amazing how in both the UK & US, not to mention France, Greece, Italy Spain, etc., the traditional party coalitions are fracturing along quite distinct lines, and new coalitions of far left/right blocs are showing surprising strength.
The vampire squid is losing its grip.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Those lines are so distinct
because they're so nearly empty. It is into this void that the Democratic Party has been targeting its campaigns for years now, either going after the phantom "centrist" or "swing" voters, or pitching to both sides at the same time (looking at you, Hillary)....and failing to consistently win executive positions or legislative majorities.
"If I sit silently, I have sinned." - Mossadegh
Now it's up to a "Ragtag Bunch of (combined Right-Left) Misfits"
to save the day against the neocon / neolib Empire …
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/RagtagBunchOfMisfits
Thanks for your essay, gjohnsit. You seem to have a good
grasp of these complex issues. I think the best thing the EU could do would be to dissolve the Euro. The common currency has hamstrung the economics of the various countries unable to let their own currency float compared to others. It would seem Greece will be back to the drachma sooner rather than later. You cannot have a common currency unless there is complete political unity also. I agree with you that this is good for the working class. I just wish Corbyn had been completely on the correct side of this one.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020
The Blairite New Labour
contingency has been calling for his stepping down because of his lukewarm Remain stance and his failure to reach across the aisle to the Remain Tory faction. The Blairite New Labour like the Clintonites here are playing this politically for all it's worth. The neoliberal Labour and the Third Way Democrat's seem to be losing their grip even using shaming and fear doesn't seem to be getting them home wagging their tail's behind them. Perhaps ordinary people every where are hip to their jive.
I always thought that in order to pry the vampire squid off it would have to be people globally who have had enough as the blood sucking vampire squid itself is made up of giant global entities that know no boarders and look at democracy the rule of law anf human rights as an impediment to their wet dream of ruling the world. I may not be a big fan of fascistic style nationalism but anti-democratic global rule by the likes of GS, Deuctsche Bank the too big's of the unfettered 'free market' is worse. I'm sick and tired of centralization being pumped as the be all that will result in a brave new world order of peace love and understanding.
Italy
The Italian gross domestic product has grown 4% under the EU. Japan, given as an example of a country getting old and helpless, has grown 12% in this period.
Spain has had unemployment rates in excess of 20%.
If the EU was to be a international community of equals Why are countries like Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain referred to being on the "perifery?"
I think nothing positive for the working class `will come from the neoliberal administration of the EU and the UK is well out of it.
"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"
Perifery AKA
"countries that owe Germany a lot of money they can't pay back."
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
I think you have summed up the situation accurately!
"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"
More precisely...
...it's "counties where German banks bet wrong, and then convinced the Neoliberal governments to saddle their own people with the losses in order to bail out the German banks..."
I want my two dollars!
It's the same argument we are having here, essentially
I look at Brussels and it looks more and more like DC. I'm no expert, but it seems to me a "European Union" is easier to corral into bad decisions, and the people of those nations have no say-so whatsoever.
The spin we're seeing in our press over this is just ugly. It takes no consideration of the Brits who live here, at all--people who were and are for Brexit aren't all Trump Ignoramuses. That's insulting to say to someone who watched their job be taken over by technocratic immigration policy. Don't believe me? Ask anyone who lost their job because of the "temporary" H1-b visa program here in the US.
Those framing things and trying to create the narrative of
'how awful those in Britain who voted to leave the EU are' are just as bad as the people over at KOS who despise and insult Sanders supporters.
The hypocrisy exhibited by these people shouldn't be surprising, but it is definitely amusing.
Gonna need more popcorn!
Agreed,
but I am no longer amused by it, it's arrogance of the most vile sort, and I am sick of seeing it here already. It never fucking ends.
Sometimes, I wish I cared more, but...
I refuse to allow this stuff to bother me and wind me up. Waste of energy.
People talk about change, and taking action, but most of it is just that, talk.
Some people arrogantly call it giving up and have even posted well meaning inspirational stuff, but there is a huge difference between giving up and dealing with reality too.
All the inspiration in the world is not going to change the stranglehold those in power have over things, and when some people in another country make one step at throwing off globalization, so many people who speak of changing things immediately jump to accusing those people of Xenophobia, Racism, etc.
These people have been marginalized and that probably was not going to change. It's a start, maybe. And things probably won't get or be immediately better, but sometimes, people reach a point that they're willing to accept that inevitability as long as they throw a wrench into the current power structure that wasn't going to do anything for them anyway.
Good on those who voted to leave is my opinion. I have a few friends across that rather large pond who voted to leave and knowing them, I know this isn't about Racism and Xenophobia. That's only anecdotal maybe, but I'll give them and the people that voted to leave the benefit of the doubt before I give the current power structure the benefit of the doubt. (current power structure = EU, Globalists, etc. and also here in the states the center and far right party of the Democrats and Republicans...)
V
You care all you need to
for you.
Whether or not someone else is "wound up" about something is a matter of perspective. The one thing I am sure of, however, is that nothing ever changed from not being wound up about it first.
You're probably more wound up than you give yourself credit for. You're just mellower about it than I am. And that's okay with me, too
So the UK needs to negotiate new trade agreements
and the City is a major financial center. Suppose they decide not to be stupid and they set up an EU alternative, offering to join with those countries that are looking for options. Suppose they manage not to screw it up and come up with a superior alternative (whatever that might mean). One after another countries withdraw from the EU and join a UK-led organization. Not the end of the world, but the end of a somewhat unsuccessful experiment and the start of a new one.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Any "agreement" such as you describe in general terms, above
would be drawn up, negotiated, and signed by the banksters, and/or their bought&paid-for flunkies -- not much good in there for the hoi & the ploi.
The best hope - for Europeans and the world - is that ordinary Brits take heart, take this opportunity, and take a run with it - while kicking the banksters and The City to the curb --
When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.
Brexit
I fairly disappointed in many people here being so glib about this...
the Ricky Gervais tweet up top is emblematic of a particular germ of stupidity and small-mindedness that afflicts people who have reaped all the benefits of the EU never knowing what it Europe was like before we all got together and decided they would rather settle their disputes in the opaque halls of Brussels rather than on the battlefield.
My father grew up in Italy during the WWII and I can tell you for many people of that generation going back to a fragmented Continent always on the brink of war is not an option.
The European Union is no perfect panacea but for the historically minded folks here I ask this:
- Go back and find me a long period of sustained peace with no major wars between European powers (spoiler alert: you would probably have to go back to before the Greco-Persian Wars of the 5th Century AD to find any such time), heck even during the "relative peace and stability" of the early part of the Roman Empire there were continual wars of expansions or defense.
I would encourage all here to heed the words of the economist and former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis :
He is trying to bring democracy to Europe not tear it apart because he know the very forces are the most vocal for each nation to go at it alone would be legitimize (UKIP in UK, Le Pen in France, Lega Nord in Italy) are right-wing populist factions that will invariably be precursors to the return full-blown fascism.
I heartily encourage others to look up on youtube his other speeches.
You can't be neutral on a moving train
- Howard Zinn
Youth gets it
One thing I consistently see in American analyses of the Brexit (even by gjohnsit, whose work I generally admire) is that unlike the US Berniecrats, the UK youth vote was overwhelmingly Remain. Youth is attracted to unity, to new experiences and new cultures. They reach out to their own in other countries. Brexit will make this more difficult and they get this.
Youth are also well enough educated to know that they will be the ones who die in the next war. Elites make money off war profiteering too (and have since the Romans) so the only concern they really have here is that they will have to retool.
Some here have been arguing that this war fear is just fear-mongering, but as the saying goes, "Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you." I was called out the other day for saying that Europe has had a lot more wars than the US because I was ignoring the Native American genocide, but that is actually just another example of European ethnic violence imported to this continent. Imagine that this genocide, or the 19th century Civil War or the brutality of slavery had been ongoing as you say since 500 BCE and was experienced by every ethnic group on multiple occasions. Moreover, imagine that warring parties were often evenly matched and constituted a serious plurality of the total population. And to top it off, imagine that it happened - yet again - in your parents' lifetimes with modern weaponry.
Speaking of weaponry, just about every technological development in warfare since the Renaissance was driven by European ethnic violence. The Civil War may have been the first "industrial" war, but the European reaction was not horror, but exploitation: After the battle between the Merrimack and the Monitor, the British Admiralty starting to research metal-clad battleships.
So forgive me if I am less than sanguine about the disintegration of the EU. Economic fairness is not the only consideration - and I'd have a lot more sympathy for the English separatists if they had defended Greece during the debt crisis instead of just taking advantage of cheaper holiday fares...
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
How does this well meaning forum
address the reality of what the EU is about? These people seem to think that they must embrace the EU as the only way to work together. What a pile of shit. A pocket full of empty hope. I do not put my faith is this room. You cannot democratize big corporations. The EU is not democratic. A load of apologist bs. from lame leftists supporting the EU. Get real.
What I do know is who
Labour voters voted mostly to remain. They are not all centrists like the Democratic Party in the US as they voted heavily for Corbyn last year. People who choose to support the EU for freedom of movement and international cooperation might find themselves strange bedfellows with Conservative bankers but a loss for them does not necessarily translate to a win for the left. Though David Cameron was fear-mongering about leaving the EU, tons of Conservative members and his base ignored him and voted out.
Not all of the working class is "leftist"
either.
This wasn't a win or a loss for "conservatives" or "liberals", so your point is kind of moot, isn't it? This was a loss for the elite. And they hate it when the proles try to tell them what they need to be doing.
It was a loss for one part of the elite and a win for another.
The Tory party is not a majority of "Euro skeptics" without reason. Rupert Murdoch was not aggressively pro-Brexit without reason.
This was a win for UkIP, and although it may be supported by a number of members of the working class, it definitely does not have the interests of the working class at heart.
-- Virtually, etc. B)
Via Josh Marshal
HOW AGES VOTED
(YouGov poll)
18-24: 75% Remain
25-49: 56% Remain
50-64: 44% Remain
65+: 39% Remain#EUref
3:24 PM - 23 Jun 2016
It was a lot more about the voter's age than any other clearly identifiable variable, although the rural urban split was stark. Unfortunately, elders, as here, show up at the polls a lot more reliably than young people.
If ya don't vote --
your "opinion" is worth nothing.
When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.
Thank You, gjohnsit, steep learning curve for me since
yesterday. I am still not quite clear about "the working class" though.
What I thought is that the working class of Greece and Spain would have clearly voted against the EU, and I believe they have been socialist oriented working class people. What I am not so sure about is wether the "working class" in other EU member countries would vote the same way and are clearly oriented to promote socialist ideas.
And another question to me is, if the "working class" is composed of "left leaning socialists" or have some different emotional set up and motivations. May be that shouldn't be a concern.
If you look at the statistics you posted, why is it that in Spain (where I believe that working class has suffered the most under EU policies) would vote for leaving the EU, if they had a referendum, only at 26 percent and Poland only at 22 percent and Belgium and Hungary at 29 percent, while EU member countries, whose population's working class is relatively better off compared to Spain, Greece, Poland and Hungary, would vote for leaving the EU at a higher percentage?
So, the revolt is against being "poor" and "exploited" by the EU's austerity measures, but it seems to me people in different member countries feel different about what and who could save them from being in such a condition. Polish people are entering Britain to work there. Some people in Britain don't seem to like that? Is that the working class of Britain, who dislikes that? Why then would the younger population in Britain, who are certainly NOT well off, for remaining in?
When Le Pen is for an OUT of the EU, is that because the working class of France is worse off than the working class in Poland? I would say Frances workers are much better protected than Poland's workers. Yet 41 percent in France would vote for an OUT. Germany's workers are well protected, yet they would vote OUT for 34 percent.
So, somehow this statistic confuses me. It seems everyone who feels insecure and exploited off their livelihood would vote for an OUT. The question is if their conditions will be worse or better once they are OUT.
I think I had a sad yesterday (kind of nostalgia), because I am old and for me the European Union was just a way to "make peace" among countries that have fought and killed each other for too long.(that was quite well explained in one of the BBC articles Brexit: The story of an island apart). When the EU currency was introduced and all the complicated constraints and constructs of the EU for its member countries evolved out of that, I couldn't understand what it meant, nor did I try, because I was not living in the EU anymore and I have not the background in economics to really do so. Much later I learned of the trade agreements and was not clear what they meant. Meanwhile I at least understand the negative impact somewhat.
Now with all the trade deals, NAFTA, TTP and TTIP and there negative aspects, I would certainly not support those and therefore be quite opposed to them implemented on the US-EU side.
I guess I have to try to understand more of it. Thanks for your great essay.
The working class of Greece
The working class of Greece voted massively against the European Central Bank, among the members of the Troika that were sacrificing their future on the altar of "sound money". A large share of the vote against the Troika offer were from people who continued to support membership of Greece in the EU.
And well they should, the Eurozone system is a system designed as if the world that the neoliberals describe as an excuse for policies to make the wealthy wealthier was the world that we really live in, and so it is fundamentally unable to be used to make real world economies better for ordinary citizens.
But the UK is not in the Eurozone, they don't have their monetary policy decided in Berlin. What Greece wanted is what the UK already has ... membership in the EU, but not in the Eurozone.
-- Virtually, etc. B)
Der Spiegel is my bedtime
reading on the topic. Thanks for the summary mimi
Look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see, and wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. Stephen Hawking
Does this make TTIP DOA?
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
No, but it's on life support
We'll see how it plays out.
Hope so --
When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.
There is a path out of Brexit?
“Bracksies”: how Brexit could wind up not actually happening
The political revolution continues
According to the Telegraph, who is France's
"most respected philosopher"? (Lower left corner of the map graphic.)
please god don't tell me it's BHL
EU and NATO
link
With Hillary waiting in the wings,
the Brexit move may serve to hobble her hawkish ambitions and make the world a safer place. From the Stars and Stripes you linked.....
"If I sit silently, I have sinned." - Mossadegh
And this
2.1 million Brits signed a petition for another E.U. referendum. They shouldn’t hold their breath.
The political revolution continues
amusing math behind the petition to re-vote Brexit
the petition asks for 75% participation, a level that hasn't been reached in decades, and for a 60% majority to leave. That's an incredibly high bar. The petition might as well ask for "never leaving, period, the end".
As it was, some 72% of eligible voters cast their ballots and 52% voted to Leave. The vote was 17.4 million to 16.1 million. If you run the numbers, this petition is saying 21 million are needed to Leave. Yet somehow 1/10th of that if plenty to declare that it must be redone. 17 million, not enough. 2.1 million, overwhelming!
Let me put it this way: In a dreamy, better world let's say Bernie defeated Trumpolini for the Presidency with a popular vote of 70 million to 65 million. And some upset Trumpizens started a petition saying the vote wasn't high enough and Bernie needed 60% anyway! and that petition were signed by, oh, 7 million crazy right-wingers. Would we think that was reasonable?
I'm a bit disappointed in this petition. It makes me think less of anyone who'd sign it.
The difference between Brexit and Remain ...
... is that under Brexit Little Britain (England and Wales) give up a vote on many of the most important decisions made about their economy, while under Remain they have that vote, and often use it for ill rather than for good, then use the EU as a scapegoat for the pain that their national government imposes on their populace under neoliberal Tory or neoliberal Labor policies.
They will indeed continue to be using the EU as a scapegoat after Brexit, but as, in the best case, members of EFTA, they will finally be right when they claim "there is nothing we could do about it, it was EU rules," because they will no longer have the second highest number of votes, after Germany, in EU council in terms of determining what the EU rules are. Instead, they will have no vote at all, and they can take it or lump it.
The UK elite are, of course, upset at losing the best of both worlds for neoliberals, being members of the EU but not being in the Eurozone, so not having their monetary policy run under the Prussian Religion of public austerity and private socialism for big banks ... accounting for much of the financial business that the City of London does. But it is not as if the British population was allowed an option that was good for them ... they were permitted "you are going to be screwed same as always" versus "you are going to be so well and truly fukt." And the lack of enthusiasm for "you are going to be screwed same as always" versus the enthusiasm of those who bought the BS being spread by the vulture capitalists hoping to strike it rich from the calamities that will follow Brexit led to the difference in turnout that led to the result.
At least there is hope that Scotland might not be forced out of the EU, but since the Good Friday agreement is founded on freedom to move across and internal EU border and the freedom to choose between having an EU Irish passport and an EU UK passport, Brexit is going to make it tougher to continue the process of healing in Northern Ireland.
A goal that Cameron declared when he gained the PM position in a Tory majority was that he was determined that the UK would not turn out like Greece. And indeed it will not: by 2020, Greece will still exist, while the current UK will not.
-- Virtually, etc. B)
I respectfully disagree Bruce
but I'm really happy you have chimed in here. How under Remain does anyone have any vote? The exist from the onerous EU seems to me a be a healthy reaction after decades of this is the only world you can get, suckers. I am living under these global assholes on a local level here in Oregon. I don't particularly care at this point about ties political ( oh no's they are fascists) and the circumstances cooked up.The nuances of which trending evil I need to fear and oppose the most is a mind blow.
The EU is to my ignorant self the epitome of a world gone mad. Why should humans, people anywhere put up with their technocratic 1% anti=democratic agenda and have to wade though such political minefields to pry this vampire squid off humanities face? Austerity and Goldman Sachs rules the world and if you object your an isolationist, nationalist, racist, sexist, bigoted, fascist, rotten Dr, Commie Rat.
What has the EU, Remain or the Democratic party ever done to promote or work for democracy, truth or any real desperately needed change. Lets all debate and argue about who among us is surely a enemy of the good that does not exist. Yeah the Fee Market global disaster cappie global rule. A lesser much lesser evil then having people kick these neoliberal /neocons assholes out of power. First step do not believe you are whatever they tell you are. They need to be gone daddy gone regardless of who does or doesn't support them for convoluted reasons I cannot fathom.
It was a Brexit led by posh private schoolboy elites.
"The exist from the onerous EU seems to me a be a healthy reaction after decades of this is the only world you can get, suckers."
But it was the Boris Johnson's and Nigel Farage's of the world that are much more onerous to the average resident in a depressed part of the UK than the EU is.
Inside the Eurozone that would not be the case ... but in the UK, the economic pain is primarily self-imposed, in the name of Austerity, with the EU used as a convenient scapegoat for the impacts of policies decided upon and free to be changed by the ruling UK elites.
-- Virtually, etc. B)
EU
The main thing that has long impressed me about the EU is that it has successfully kept out US GMO products. We can't even get a labeling law. I wonder if TIPP would make EU accept GMO products? Moot point I guess, at least for now.
Thanks to everyone. I have a little more understanding of Brexit now.
Thank you for this essay
I'm really glad that many people here aren't buying in to that whole "Brexit=Racism" trope that the media has been showering us with.
Unfortunately, if I read your post right (and that's not 100% certain), it sounds like being out of the EU will be almost as expensive as remaining would be, for the UK. That's a depressing thought.
“We may not be able to change the system, but we can make the system irrelevant in our lives and in the lives of those around us.”—John Beckett
Big issue are the second and third order effects . . .
which are very much an open question right now. If the British exit happened in isolation and wasn't like to trigger referendums in Scotland and elsewhere, I think the adjustment would be painful, but manageable. The bigger problems come into play if the EU itself starts to fall apart. How are issues related to debt resolved? What happens to the common currency? Does this mean that the movement between borders becomes more restrictive?
The Yanis Varoufakis piece from the Guardian is worth reading too in its entirety.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/brexit-britain-dis...
An Except:
I understand why the "Leave" votes won, and that's part of the reason that I worry about what happens next. The vote in isolation will create problems mostly for people in the UK in the near-term, but in the next 5 to 10 years additional shocks could push the world towards conflict again. I don't have great confidence in the leadership in the EU the U.S. and elsewhere to actually deal with the root causes and apply the proper medicine. e.g. pushing more growth oriented policies through massive public investments -- especially in countries that have the economic capacity to engage in those actions -- Germany and the U.S. in particular. The forces that drove the 2008 crisis also need to learn to be less greedy and act with longer-term interests in mind. The political leadership and the economic and media elites in many of these countries, however, are so insulated, reactive, and out of touch at this point, I don't have a great deal of confidence in their ability to get ahead of events and to manage the crisis in a constructive way. I think it's more likely that they will inflame the situation by trying to deal with symptoms rather than the root causes.
thanks, great article by Varoufakis, made me understand
more, wonder how long it will take to get Schaeuble and Merkel out.
Public investments in the US? Seems like something "out of the moon". In Germany? I guess they feel for them it's not necessary yet, they are too well off. They rely on their exports? For how long do they think that will be the case?
This is very complicated.
I am not ready to say I support or oppose.
If Chris Hedges is right and it is 2008 all over again, we are fucked.
More research folks, and HIGH ALERT.
May the dolphins, whales and furry things inherit the world. Humans, unless we do an about face, have just about proven we don't deserve this beautiful planet.