Where will the Berniecrats go?
The title is a question posed to me by a long time dear friend in an email. We've had extensive email and phone discussions about this elections season. Today he sent this:
4-in-10 GOP insiders want to derail Trump at the convention
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-convention-block-gop-...Where will Berniecrats go??
My reply:
The tea baggers own the Republican Party. Derailing Trump is definitely the publicly stated goal of the party "leadership". I wish them luck. The sooner they self destruct the better. Fucking over Trump would wreck them nationally as well as in many states for a generation. They made this.
The question is where would the corporate wing go? There is little to no space between them and the Clintons. I expect that after a short grieving time most would reboot the social issue side of their grifting style and jump back onto the gravy train as a conservadem. Call it the Joe Lieberman wing of the Democratic Party. The grift is always the objective. Everything else is show.
The corporate wings joining forces is what scares the living shit out of me most. I think the Birchers, Kochs and their like, won't switch immediately. I could easily be wrong here since they've already floated the idea they prefer HRC over Trump. Come to think of it the Birchers and the Clintons aren't all that far apart except for their style of grift. I can't decide which one would be more likely to "evolve". More likely, they could just agree to disagree on certain issues until one could find the right leverage to overwhelm the other. These fuckers cooperating would be the end of the middle class.
I've beaten the horse to pulp on my views on the Berners. I think most Berniecrats, as you call them, will probably get in line. Fear of Trump is their reasoning. It is Hillary's only message. Yes, ONLY. The other stuff, you know unimportant shit like policies and guiding principals, is show. The real question is where will the progressives and newly awakened to politics independents go?
I've never been a registered Democrat or Republican or anything. I've sided with Dems because their stated goals and principals more closely matched mine. Their actual accomplishments have fallen far short of what they say they want. Many others have been abandoned like the New Deal. (Bonus question: Who has done the most damage to the New Deal?) I support a progressive, liberal if you will, agenda that favors the middle and lower classes in this country. I think there is more than a little evidence that a plurality, if not an outright majority, of people in this country do too. Those millions, young and Latino, who responded so strongly to Bernie aren't going to be around when it comes time to vote for Hillary. Most see no difference between Hillary and Trump. They will be fucked over by either one. Nothing in their lives will change for the better under either one and there is no third choice. There is only none of the above.
Worth noting, Bernie was polling well with Trump supporters. He was expected to strip away a not insignificant number of the not rabid crowd. Who do you think they will vote for now?
Jill Stein will pick up the more informed ones but not in significant numbers unless Bernie changes his mind and endorses or joins her. Unlikely. Well, until after the convention when it is too late to affect 2016 or, slightly more likely, after the election. I actually expect Bernie to continue to try to retake the Democratic Party. Hopeless in our lifetime I think.
Does that cover it?
He plans to vote for Hillary now that Bernie is almost certainly not going to be the Dem nominee. His motivation, if I understand it correctly, is that Trump will be an embarrassing disaster for the US. I respect that view. Trump will, without a doubt, be an unmitigated embarrassment and disaster for many millions of people here and around the world. We each have to make the decision of who to vote for based on our personal interests. My wife is very pro-HRC. I don't like it but I understand her point of view and respect it. (Lets not get into her not-voting-for-HRC-is-childish thing.)
My issue with voting for HRC, I won't, ever, is that it is a short term solution to a single short term problem - Donald Trump. Coronating HRC creates it's own set of potential disasters and problems for us all. It also fails to address the long term problem, 35+ years and counting, of having to vote for the lesser evil or one of two sides of the same coin. A problem is never solved by doing the exact same thing that has failed so many times before. There will be pain, there will be blood in following the path of saying, "NO MORE!" The difference? Just maybe, there will also be a chance of change too.
I respect the views of you good people. What have I missed in my brief summation of where will the Berners go?
Comments
Good analysis
I agree with your points on short term vs. long term.
Think of the Nader insurgency of 2000. Dems like to say it cost Gore the election (although overlooked is how many Dems crossed over and voted for Bush), but whether that was true or not, it was a real insurgency with some real traction.
What was the institutional/long term response to the Nader campaign? I'll tell you. NOTHING. The establishment Dems went on just as they had before, voted (many of them) for the Iraq war, then for the no-strings-attached bank bailout of 2008.
Any hope that the party is going to alter significantly its neoliberal orientation is naive.
One thing I know for sure: I will not be voting for Hillary. No effing way. Everything else remains to be determined.
TYT poll
I've been looking for a place to drop this, and this looks as good a place as any.
TYT set up a poll "will you vote for Hillary". Unscientific, but there's something to be said for a big sample size. Voting still open if you want to participate (click the circle with the "i" in the upper right corner of the video)
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5pYdQlwM-A]
Results posted yesterday, 83% "never Hillary":
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwOIY3p30-c]
I think the answer to your question "where will the Berniecrats go?" is that they (we) are up for grabs. Someone has to make us an offer. We can not vote, vote but leave the Presidential pick blank, vote Stein, write in Bernie, vote Trump (you know someone will do that), and some will vote for the modestly lesser evil.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Good catch/evidence. Thanks. n/t
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
Thank you...I looked all over for that poll and couldn't find it
I did not know about the I in the corner, just thought it was one more irritating thing that YouTube likes to splash across my screen when viewing videos.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Happy to have been of service
I spend way too much time on YouTube, but I didn't know what it was either, so I thought I would mention it.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
What I?
No I. Not here. Not on youtube.
I'm not the only one. Many comments saying they can't vote, can't see the thing.
Even the effing website doesn't have a place to vote.
Screwem.
The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.
Check your YouTube settings
under the little gear icon in the bottom bar. There should be a slider for "annotations". It needs to be in the right position to be "on". That should make the "i" appear for you.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Thank you.
Another thought just came to me from your post. We, the voters and the public, have taught our politicians that there is no consequence to deceiving us, ignoring us, lying to us, failing to deliver on promises, obviously feathering their own nest, favoring the interests of their donors while working against the interests of those who elected them, or, well, almost anything. They skate unless it is sexual or a felony conviction. In essence, we built this. We can tear the mutha down too. If not now, when?
Edit: I got caught by the wrong reply button. This was to darkmatter.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
I would say that this is true of Democrats
Not Republicans. Conservatives will primary anyone for any offense, which is the ultimate form of holding their representatives responsible for lying, deceiving, and stabbing them in the back. As much as I disagree with them on the issues, at least they stick to their principles and demand accountability, which is why the leadership fears the base. That's far more effective than the Democrats that have shrugged their shoulders for decades and cast a vote for the lesser of two evils.
The only way that the Democrats will ever change is if we stop giving them our votes and create an alternative that forces them to compete. Even if we have to torpedo campaigns and get stuck with Republicans for 1-2 terms, at least we'll be trying to change the system. It's definitely better than what we have now where we can't even critique supposed "progressives" and are told to embrace the suck. What we need are even more Naders in every race across this country, which tells the establishment, "Maybe we can't elect a real liberal yet, but we can sure as hell keep you neoliberal Democrats out of office."
Wholeheartedly agree. Thanks.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
i love this
yes he is. and so is the woman under investigation for criminal wrongdoing.
The US of A is a total embarrassment now.
Don't believe everything you think.
I'm glad I don't fly all over the world anymore.
How could I defend to my international friends that of around 250 million Americans these are the only two we can put forward to lead our government? I couldn't. The immensity of the absurdity is boundless and only exceeded by the number of people who cannot see it.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
Last paragraph in essay
says it all for me.
I think the Trump short term disaster, given that it will destroy what's left of the Republican party, AS WELL AS take the Democratic party out of the clutches of the Crooked Criminal Clintons, is a twofer!
Still think something is gonna' break which makes Clinton step down, opening the nomination for Warren & a VP. Don't think Biden will be part of it. Certainly not Bernie, they're too shit scared of him. But something is brewing.
A.B.C. = Anybody But Clinton. Always. They are more dangerous than anyone else.
I'm with you on HRC being DQ'd.
Unfortunately, it's like having the ball on the one yard line and the QB running 99 yards to the opponents goal. The other ten players would be trying to stop him.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
The answer my friend is blowing in the wind
Nobody knows where the Bernicrats will go, including the "Bernicrats".
Some of us have committed to a course outside the Democratic Party, some are waiting for the Peoples Summit, some are getting shit faced and plastered until they reach a decision.
Time will tell.
"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn
True. Each of us must decide for ourselves.
Thanks.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
not rushing my decision
I'm sticking with Bernie through the convention. After that, I'll decide depending on what he does. Not Hillary though, never Hillary.
My own view is that the Clinton's will be tried, and at some point she will drop out of the race. Just hoping it is before end of convention.
Can't wait to see movie "Clinton Cash" which comes out week of convention.
Hillary is not so imminently President as she's giving us the impression that she is!!
Let's add Gary Johnson to the discussion
And it gets even more convoluted. HRC is going after right-center Republicans which will complete the move started in the 90s to dominate the center. If she is ultimately the Dem candidate and is successful in bringing the right-center into the party, then there are only the old vanguard and the far right on the Republican side. The right-center, center, and left-center will all be in the Democratic Party. The progressive left will be left out in the cold.
Do you realize that if the Dems run Clinton and Warren, the 2016 Dem ticket will feature two former Republicans (after running a dubious and contested primary campaign that vilified the Left as sexist, racist, extremist socialist fantasy peddlers) with a general election strategy to court Republicans. You can't make this up.
Where do Bernie supporters go? I am going Green, if Bernie is not on the ticket. Some will join me, some will vote Dem regardless, and some will vote Trump solely to keep Hillary out. Others won't vote at all.
But tell me what happens if Gary Johnson attracts those right-center voters that HRC is relying on? What happens if some Bernie voters go for Gary Johnson instead of Green Party or Trump? Where does that leave Trump? HRC? Stein?
It will be interesting to see what happens at both Conventions and as we get closer to the election, especially if it's a four way contest.
"Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change." Stephen Hawking
NEW: http://www.twitter.com/trueblueinwdc
I intentionally left out the Libertarians.
The collapse of the House of Paul, good riddance, took a lot of wind out of their sails. Their pull is, as you point out, center right and corporate/business oriented. Their core principle is narcissistic which I think slightly favors Trump if for no other thing than he's the shinier object and a more obvious and gifted grifter. Flashy wins on style points. I just don't see them having much effect either way. I could surely be wrong.
Absent Bernie I'd say the Greens would have little effect. Sadly. Their cause is not only just but imperative.
Anecdotally, I've not seen too many bumper stickers. Middle TN was covered over with W stickers and McCain/Palin stickers. There were fewer Rmoney stickers and this season had plenty, though fewer than previous years, of stickers for Cruz but the county went Rubio. I never saw one single Rubio sticker. The Trump stickers far exceed the Johnson ones but are fewer than the Bernie stickers. Previous years saw Paul stickers only slightly fewer than for Republicans. HRC? None. Yet. I'm not sure there's anything to be gained from the observation. I do think this is a glaring sign of low/no energy for either apparent nominee. Both campaigns going with my-candidate-sucks-less-than-yours might not raise the excitement level either. I also think that trying to predict outcomes when both sides have fringish appeal is a fool's errand. But I never underestimate the pundits' and media's ability to joyously flog the fools.
We'll know what happened in the second week of November. Then begins the long hangover.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
My WA caucus went 65/35 for Bernie
But the local bumper stickers are about 99/1 for him. I can't figure out if that is shame or understatedness.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
"Moderate" Republicans too
There is a strong possibility that Gary Johnson will attract the disaffected Republican voters Hillary was supposedly drawing away from Trump.
"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn
More than likely Green here.
Only thing I can say with certainty is that it won't be Hillary or Johnson.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Most will vote for Hillary.
My view is that a vote for Hillary is a vote for murdering foreigners, a vote for terrible and deadly domestic policy, a vote for further erosion of privacy, a vote against free and open exchange of ideas on the internet, and a vote for more proto-fascist corporatism.
The lesser of two evils argument just doesn't hold water. She isn't lesser, just different.
Hillary will do more damage to humanity in her first year
…that Trump could possibly do across two terms of trying hard, assuming his presidential goal is to damage mankind. If I had a dog in this hunt, I'd vote for a narcissist over a psychopath any time.
This is the one thing we know for certain.
IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"
Away
"Where else they gonna go?" Corporatist Dems have been chuckling over this one for decades, as they sip their single-malts and smoke their fine cigars, talking about liberals and progressives they habitually screw over.
Away. Look at the historically low percentage of the electorate identifying as Democratic. Look at the huge midterm losses, and the too-close presidential wins, against the most hateful, mean group of losers politics has given us since the days of Mark Hanna. Look at the difference in crowd sizes on the campaign trail between Sanders rallies and Clinton appearances. (You can't hack crowd sizes.)
Your friend should be reminded that unless s/he lives in a closely contested state in presidential elections, it really doesn't matter who they vote for. Their vote will in no way be determinative of the outcome. Our votes can mean something in aggregate if they increase the totals for Jill Stein, or if Hillary way underperforms pre-election polls. I can vote for Hillary Clinton, Jill Stein, Donald Trump or Francis the Talking Horse, and it won't make one damn bit of difference. Except to me and my conscience.
Please help support caucus99percent!
Mule
Francis was a talking mule. Mr. Ed was a talking horse.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
I was going to post "Right, as usual, Dallasdoc".
Then I thought, when has he ever been wrong? (At least from my fire breathing liberal, hillbilly point of view.) Although Francis was a mule.
"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey
Neither of us are in competitve states.
Regardless there are those who choose, rightly so, to vote as they see best. I will continue to put forth arguments for my point of view until I'm sure the horse is quite disgustingly dead or good taste requires otherwise. People come along in their own time. It is a difficult conversation to have with yourself when you are convinced of the logic of one course but are still concerned about the potential consequences. That those consequences are beyond your control is hard to internalize. The fact that I live in a deep red state was the deciding factor for me. My friend may or may not come to this conclusion this election or never. I have to respect his right to choose for himself even as I act like a gnat to other reasoning.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
the election fraud will be in competitive states
and also the population-dense precincts, as the Southern California results are showing.
The closer the contest, ideally that would be 49-51% range, then the easier it will be to use the tabulators and hidden source code to tip the scales in favor of the oligarch's choice.
These people whoever are doing it, they are addicted to cheating and keep improving their act in secrecy every election year. Democracy means nothing to them, it is part of a big money game and corporate control of the public offices.
Regardless of who wins, this year should be the time when we try to improve the exit polling process, and make hand-counts a standard part of the final process. The system has been deliberately broken, it's clear where the problems are coming from, and it's producing counterfeit and defective results.
The assumption that it's the swing states that matter --
is a product of a historic "liberalism" that has, in election after election, pledged its loyalty to the Democratic Party.
I hate to be a broken record here, but once again, here, the words of Gopal Balakrishnan:
The main reason the "liberals" would go away is because that's what they've always done. Let's leave the world to Hillary Hell because Trump is Hitler or incrementalism or omigod the Supreme Court or because the Donald is, well, rude and bigoted when appealing to rude and bigoted Republicans.
Perhaps the big question, then, is what happens to the constituency that doesn't buy into this tea-time garbage. That constituency isn't going for Trump because life is not a WWE match, and it's not going for Clinton because the more experienced of two evils isn't the lesser of two evils. There have got to be a lot of people out there who have awakened to reality.
“The Democrats and Republicans want you to believe they are mortal enemies engaged in a desperate struggle when all the time, they are partners with a power-sharing agreement.” - Richard Moser
I don't fear Trump.
That's why I have no problem being Bernie or bust - never hrc.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Trump hot air but no action??
I'm less afraid of Trump, because it seems he is too unorganized to get any real damage done.
Look, his own offspring could not figure out in advance how to vote for their own father!
Trump doesn't seem to plan ahead or think things through. His 4 years will be over before he ever gets around to mobilizing any forward movement of his evil kingdom.
Well if trump wins make sure
Well if trump wins make sure we get the senate at least so were back to an stalemate and nothing gets done (like the last 6 years) then try to take everything in 2020. Any exec orders trump does can be undone in 2020. The RNC and DNC are run by the 1% basically anyway with little reguard for the middle class or the problems of the planet.
Sunday meeting at Bernie's home
Just noticed this over at CNN after did a Yahoo search for Bernie Sanders news.
The whole article:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/10/politics/bernie-sanders-vermont-meeting/in...
I'm still waiting --
for the Donald Trump version of "Mein Kampf." Mein Kampf was published in 1925 and 1926. Donald's version should therefore be out already.
For the actual Nazi Party that Trump supposedly leads (and, no, the Republicans are not Nazis).
For that shining alternative to Nazi rule that commits some version of election fraud against a social democrat in ten to twenty states because omigod Trump is Hitler!
Does something disturb this picture for Democrats?
“The Democrats and Republicans want you to believe they are mortal enemies engaged in a desperate struggle when all the time, they are partners with a power-sharing agreement.” - Richard Moser