About Hillary's 'support', part II: The race as it really stands
If you're a Democrat running for president of the United States, there are only 26 states that matter. Those are the states that regularly deliver electoral votes for the Democrat.
That's an admittedly cruel calculation. Whether or not it can be justified is subject to debate, but is not the purpose of this essay. The simple fact is these states carry 329 electoral votes, a good 20% more than the 270 needed for victory. It is highly unlikely that any path to victory will stray far from this territory.
So it stands to reason that the opposite is also true, that some states have practically zero chance of delivering an electoral vote for a Democrat. The 24 reliably Republican states have only gone for the Democrat a collective 13% of presidential elections dating back 40 years. Hell, 16 of them have gone to a Democrat only once or less since 1976.
Funny, then, that you never hear these simple facts from the armies of pundits on air and online. Maybe because they're busy force feeding us the one about Hillary Clinton being the inevitable Democratic nominee, a myth promulgated by the carefully scripted primary season.
But if you ignore the Hillary hype, and focus on who the favored candidate is in states that are likely to give their electoral votes to a Democrat, you have a vastly different story. To be sure, it's still a story where the Clinton camp has the upper hand. But it's also a story where the race is going to be decided in a climactic showdown.
And ultimately it's the story of where the true hearts of Democratic voters lie.
This is an update of a discussion I began a little more than a month ago:
http://caucus99percent.com/content/about-hillary-%E2%80%98support%E2%80%99
If you accept the argument that only those states likely to vote for a Democrat matter, then it stands to reason that only the primaries in those states matter. And if you look at the race from that perspective, you see Hillary with a sizable lead, but Bernie within striking distance with a quarter of the way to go.
As mentioned earlier, the reliably Democratic states carry 329 electoral votes. In order to win a "primary" of this subset, a candidate would have to collect 165 electoral votes by winning state primaries. As of today, Hillary would have 152 electoral votes to Bernie's 96, an advantage of 56. But 81 votes are still up for grabs, including the massive haul of 55 from California. In fact, it all boils down to just two state primaries on June 7, those in California and New Jersey.
From a purely mathematical standpoint, this is all true. For that reason alone, it should be the primary focus of superdelegates attending the Democratic National Convention. If their sole charge is to make sure the most electable candidate wins, there's no more democratic method of deciding who to support.
So it all comes down to this: Hillary wins the nomination if she wins New Jersey or California. If either of those events occur, she will have won the majority of electoral votes from states likely to give them to a Democrat.
For Bernie it's simple: He must win both New Jersey and California. Doing so gives him a majority of likely Democratic electoral votes, and creates a perfectly logical reason for every superdelegate to support Sen. Sanders.
Of course, with a race this close, a logical case for Bernie can likely be made regardless of how June 7 plays out. But that's another argument. As is the discussion of how it will likely be up to the superdelegates to not only reveal the true face of the Democratic Party, but determine whether the party flourishes or wains.
Comments
This is an interesting analysis
I sometimes think all bets are off in this election cycle, in a historical sense. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens. This whole spectacle sometimes seems so absurd to me, that I have trouble deciphering between reality and fantasy, and what is possible from what is unattainable.
How many of those 26 has Bernie won or is winning?
Is there a list of those 26 states and the voting results to date?
Of the 26 states,
22 have been decided. It stands 11 to 11. Although all states are not created equal, in terms of electoral votes, which accounts for HRC's lead.
Bernie: Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.
HRC: Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
To be determined: California, New Jersey, New Mexico and Oregon.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
Bernie won West Virginia yesterday. Count us too!
"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey
Absolutely!
And of the 24 states I relegated to "reliably Republican," West Virginia is the most likely to go for a Dem (5 times in 10 years). But it has gone GOP in four straight elections, which is why I labeled it a Republican state, in terms of electoral votes.
That being said, West Virginia has gone to the Democrats more times in the last 10 elections than states like Colorado (3 times), Nevada (4) and Virginia (2). The difference is in recent trends. All three of those states went for the Democrat in the last two elections, while Colorado has in 3 of the last 6, and Nevada has in 4 of the last 6.
It's all debatable. I was certainly gratified to see a big victory in West Virginia.
Interesting, isn't it, that the "scoreboard" showing a 15-point Bernie win is conspicuously absent from CNN's web page, when it's been a fixture following primaries all season. And if you read their coverage, they never once mention the margin of victory. Just a coincidence, I'm sure.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
Yeah the NYT article was subtly nasty too
The last paragraph was classic NYT editing:
Wonder what they meant by that?
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Maybe NYT is saying Bernie is too white
haired?
I won't even bother to read that rag anymore
either. I cancelled my subscription to them due to the shilling, and said so when I did it to the guy on the phone - particularly Krugman and even Charles Blow with all that 'unrealistic' shit. I scan the headlines now sometimes and I did see one today about Sanders "forcing" her to continue. Sickening the pandering over there. Hardly should be a surprise but it always somehow still is for me. Naivete I guess, thinking people WILL pull their head out before they go off the cliff....
Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur
For decades, we (West Virginia) were a state that went Dem.
Contrary to what some others believe, it was a liberal, FDR Democratic state, not ConservaDem, (although there were some). Hell, we went for Dukakis in 1988. The Dems held BOTH houses of the WV legislature for over 75 straight years. We got rid of the death penalty in the early 1960s. My late father was in the legislature in the early 1960s when WV was ahead of the federal govt with some of our civil rights legislation. Oh, we had it our way for a long, long time.
But. Over the last 15 or so years, the Rethugs have chipped away and chipped away. The unions, especially the rock solid UMW, have shrunk in size. What's worse, many of them have chosen to simply support the expected winner. Fuck, the UMW endorsed Jim Justice for governor when they could have endorsed a moderate (Goodwin) or a progressive (Kessler). They actually endorsed a billionaire coal baron, for God's sake.
The 'Thugs finally got both Houses and didn't waste any time this year. Right to work? Passed. Ending prevailing wage? Passed. They had an anti-LGBT bill that would have passed had the WV Chamber Of Commerce not explained to the Rethug Senate President that it would kill tourism, etc.
But yes, jim, it was very, very gratifying to see Bernie get a 15%+ win here. And screw the Hillary cheerleaders in the MSM for giving his win almost zero coverage. And GO BERNIE, GO!
"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey
I've been wondering
if West Virginia's recent turn to the right had much to do with the fact that it's given up on Democrats because they've abandoned populist positions and embraced the Third Way, etc.
I'm aware of West Virginia's relatively progressive history. I would think there would have been backlash when the Democratic Party lurched to the right. I imagine it's no different than the way I feel: If the Party doesn't want Bernie, I want nothing to do with the Party.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
It's truly an olio of shit that's caused the decline (demise?)
of the Democratic Party here in WV. And like you, I believe that if the Dems would get back to their FDR roots, they would do much better here. Interestingly, there are 1.2 million registered voters in WV. There are 578,000 Dems. 375,000. Repubs. And 255,000 No Party Affiliation. That's incredible in this state. If I was in charge of the state Dem party or the national party (yeah, like Debbie Downer Wasserman Schultz cares), THIS is a number that would concern me. I'd ask myself "Why do so many voters refuse to identify with our party?"
"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey
My guess is
that nationally, about 15% of people who call themselves Democrats will be jumping ship if HRC is foisted upon us. I'm one of 'em.
Sounds like it's West Virginia writ large.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
It would be difficult for me to jump,
for personal reasons. But if they shit on Bernie and his millions of supporters (of which, I am one) at the Democratic National Convention, I might just walk.
"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey
I'm not leaving...
...somebody has to stay behind to scream, "I FUCKING TOLD YOU SO!!!" after every Clinton betrayal. (And I imagine my voice will grow quite hoarse quite quickly...)
I want my two dollars!
I'm done
with the dem party. Right now I've got both feet out the door and walking off the porch. I can put up with a lot of shit but not election fraud. The dnc and state parties have handed clinton the nomination in the worst possible way. The fix was in from the beginning and if folks don't see it they haven't been paying attention. This is why I'm not optimistic about California. The wife has been phone banking and way over 50% of her calls are for Bernie all the way. But I've got a bad feeling after what we've seen in NY and others. The first election I voted in was McGovern vs nixon and I've been a dem that long. No more.
WV is classic KochBros work.
WV is classic KochBros work. First, kill the Unions. Then kill any "workers rights." Then... then... Then pour a $h!t ton of money into the race to defeat the Dem candidate for Gov. Then... then... before you know it they've flipped the state.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
It makes me sick, Wink.
As I put in my post above, they started by killing off the unions. Then they went after the teachers. 75 years of (almost) solid blue. Now we're considered a red state by most. Sickening.
"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey
Noticed the same thing
As soon as I saw the primary called for Bernie, went to see what the percentages were, as it would give me an idea of how the delegates would be awarded, but came up with zero,zip,nada, on that info. WTF MSM? The voting democratic public is being totally hosed when it comes to any results regarding Senator Sanders primary victories. This country is REALLY starting to scare me.
There's definitely
some Third World shit going on.
We have every right to be scared of what's happening.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
Brazil R Us
They're just a bit ahead of us on Deadman's Curve....
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
NJ and CA? Ouch.
California is possible but I'm worried about NJ.
Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.
Historical/numerically-based handicapping
must have its uses, but here and elsewhere, wherever deployed, ignores several things.
1) The human element. Voters are more than widgets.
2) The uncommon is not the same as the impossible. For example, if the diary is accurate, "reliably" Republican states have gone Democratic 13% of the time in the past 4 decades (including BTW in electing Barack Obama.) Eight of these "reliably" Republican states have gone Democratic more than once. (And BTW why, specifically, compare 40 years? A lot has changed since 1986. Why not compare 36 or 32 or 48? It's arbitrary.)
3) Each election is unique. (But if I had to make a comparison with T-Rump and a past opponent, it would be Reagan...another consummate showman whose public utterances had a purely casual relationship with reality. Did the Democratic-party-as-usual do well?)
4) Over and over, Bernie polls significantly better than Hillary against T-Rump. The folks over at TOP have declared this irrelevant. However, Sanders inspires voters the way Barack Obama did. He and we can do this. Go Bernie!
BTW, would encourage everyone here to rush out immediately
and read Thomas Frank's Listen, Liberal despite its poorly chosen title and repellent dust jacket. Frank gives eloquent expression to why this country is dying from leaders who can't see beyond the bubble of "expertise." This type of horse-race analysis, while it no doubt has its place in the discussion, can become another set of blinders, inevitably concealing things that are critical to understand and supporting the "traditional" truisms. And is exactly the type of thing Hillary & Co. will rely upon, even unto national disaster.
Euterpe2
Sigh.
What you dismiss as horse-race analysis does not pretend to be anything but. Elections matter. That's why we count the votes.
Your point #2: You ask, "Why compare 40 years?" and state "A lot has changed since 1986." Well, 40 years actually takes us back to 1976, for starters. Choosing a 40-year window is decidedly arbitrary. However, going back even further, as you suggest, makes no sense, as you show with your own argument. If you think altering the window will have a profound difference, I invite you to actually look at the data and form a real conclusion, rather than offer an off-hand opinion.
You also state, "The uncommon is not impossible." While that sounds incredibly profound, it has little meaning in actual practice. 13% equates to about a 1 in 8 chance. Would you rather have a 1 in 8 chance of winning a lottery, or a 7 in 8 chance?
States with about a 13% chance of going Dem (based on past performance) include Alabama, Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas. The most likely of those states to go for a Democrat (North Carolina) has done so twice in 40 years (in 1976 and 2008). If you want to look at that track record and say past performance doesn't matter, I'd love to have you sit in on my next poker game.
The entire purpose of my diary was to look at the race (because that's what it is) unburdened by the "inevitable Hillary" meme. When you do so, and look at data rather than simply rely on images conjured from warm fuzzies, an entirely different picture comes into focus.
One can certainly use intangibles to augment the argument for Bernie, as I state near the end. But the point is, you don't need to. The race in states that actually matter in terms of electing a Democratic president is still up for grabs.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
I'm suggesting it may be even more
"up for grabs" than such handicapping suggests.
Euterpe2
there will be the loaded dice as usual
and so far it has been reflected in crooked Democratic primaries, by studying exit poll numbers as supplied by Richard Charnin. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/
It's impressive and goes far beyond what Bev Harris has done at this point at blackboxvoting.com
His recent (5 May 2016) data shows only 4 states out of 25 listed, where there were somewhat legitimate results, given a probability of election fraud number coming in at 55% or less: NH, VT, OK and MD.
But the average for those 25 states is 97%, those 4 'clean' states cited above, aren't doing anything to normalize the margin of errors for the 'dirty' states. This is staggering and suggests a level of massive caucus election fraud within the Democratic Party hierarchy, in support of HIllary for 2016,
Talk about bold in-your-face lying! I'll keep this in mind when she's ready for some regime-changing, on the pretext of any so-called 'undemocratic' countries which supposedly have rigged their own elections.
I'm calling her out on the hypocrisy now and for the future of any honest political system in the world, whether or not it is allied to this loathsome machine here in the USA. Evil will flourish when good people remain silent.
good post
I don't like her policy positions, her lies, her lousy judgement. What is ultimately unforgivable to me though is the voter disenfranchisement and the election tampering.
Bernie made me feel as though my primary vote counted (CT) and I'm eternally grateful to him for that. I've voted most of my adult life, but this year in November, if HRH is the nominee I'll sit this one out. The down ticket races (CT senate-Blumenthal) is not worth my time. My locals might get me to the polls. Not sure yet. I cannot vote for someone who has willingly corrupted the voting and vote-counting process.
Don't believe everything you think.
How about your Representative?
My Senate "choice" in Arizona is John McCain. But my Representative, Raul Grijalva, is a true progressive and a Bernie Sanders supporter. I must vote for him if for no one else.
Fun NY Post cover today
(I can post the link, can't figure how to get the pic up)
http://nypost.com/covers/
Stop the Coronation!
Hahaha. Nice find Julia.
Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.
What, no Steve Harvey? eom :)
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
O.K., it may be the “The Onion,” but it’s still eerily accurate
http://www.theonion.com/article/hillary-clinton-to-nation-do-not-fuck-th...
One of the signs of the end times is when the Onion seems real
I've noticed over the last few years that "real" headlines seem like they should be from the Onion, and there's plenty of Onion headlines that seem totally legit.
I thought that was when
a comedian pretending to be a newscaster became the most trusted name in news.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
I have worried about the Onion for some time
This flat earth has gotten so screwy of late, I cannot imagine the stress on their creative staff to keep ahead of reality.
Just remember
https://theintercept.com/2016/01/26/ha-ha-hillary-clintons-top-financial...
Yep, and Jeff Bezos (Darth Lord Amazon) owns the Washington Post
Here, a Washington Post writer says it’s our own fault the economy’s lousy — we’re saving too much and not being good consumers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-economys-real-drag-us/2016/0...
It’s a reprise of the theme of last year’s Wall Street Journal “letter to the American consumer”:
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/06/02/grand-central-a-letter-to-stin...
Another find that just shows how far gone the D party is
"A Corporate Convention: "Comcast Presents ... The Democratic Party. Welcome to Philadelphia."
"Banks, cable companies (like Comcast, which as you'll see has a special seat at this year's well-bought table), health insurance companies, fracking companies, airlines and lobbying firms — all are in all likelihood all lined up to foot the bill for the Establishment-run Democratic Convention. The Party fêtes its patrons. The patrons smile down at the Party." - See more at: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2016/05/a-corporate-convention-comca...
It's a world where everything is for sale.
Including, apparently, the government.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
Why buy a mutual fund when a congress critter is
so much better an investment?
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020
Yeah, the government
Resembles a perpetual yard sale/flea market with greedy corporate special interests rummaging through the latest politicians to see which ones are the best bargains to bring home and brag to their neighbors about what a great deal that politician was.
The convention will be Comcastic!
Anyone else remember that ad campaign? They should hang that banner high.
NJ is difficult
The machine is strong like in NY and it is a closed primary. Nader made a good argument yesterday on democracy now against closed primaries by saying citizens pay for primary elections not parties and therefore all citizens should have the opportunity to vote. The election fraud data seems pretty convincing to me also. We know the DNC has their hand on the scale as well. I'm with Bernie all the way and am still hopeful.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
We should be hopeful.
As I alluded, even if Jersey and California don't go the way we want, a strong fact-based argument can be made for Bernie.
This is still a contest, and there's plenty of room to debate which is the desired outcome. Which is exactly the opposite of what The Media and The Money want you to believe.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
I agree w/you mostly, but with one large caveat
The electoral landscape is different right now than it has been, b/c the overwhelming political belief in America right now is that the system is corrupt and screws the little guy. Faith in both the parties and the process is at an all-time low. This can manifest in one of three ways: cratering voter turnout, rallying to a Nazi-like figure like Trump who blames it all on a series of scapegoats while railing against corruption in the abstract, or rallying to a left-wing populist like Bernie.
The specific way this is manifesting right now is that 43% of the electorate is currently independent, or no party affiliation. These people trend so strongly for Bernie that it's become a feature of this election cycle for Clinton advocates to boast about upcoming closed primaries as a problem for Bernie--which, indeed, they are. Hybrid or open primaries he tends to do very well in. Why? Because independents hate Clinton. She stands at 20% approval with them.
His rallies, though not a scientific data point, are also interesting, as I don't know when the last time was that any Democratic candidate could rally thousands of people in places like Kansas, Idaho, Indiana, and other reliably Republican states, many of which haven't gone Democratic since at least 1976, if not earlier.
What I'm getting at here is that you should not underestimate the power of independents, who, as far as I can see, hate Clinton more than just about any other candidate. They are more likely to sit it out or vote for Trump than they are to vote for Clinton. Therefore, if Clinton is the only alternative to Trump, that's what's likely going to happen--unless some serious organizing takes place where independents decide to vote as a block for some third alternative.
What this does to your metric of the likely Republican state is: everything will go basically as you say--if Clinton is the only alternative to Trump. If Bernie is also an alternative? Or is the alternative instead of Clinton? The entire dynamic changes. Bernie vs Trump puts states in play for the Democratic party that haven't gone Democratic since 1964.
This more than anything reveals the lie that the Democratic party wants to beat Republicans. If they wanted to beat Republicans, they would seize the opportunity to reclaim large swaths of Republican territory--territory that has, in some cases, been Republican since before I was born. Include the fact that an inspiring candidate usually provides good coattails for down-ballot races, and you have a way of reversing the party losses that have been going on for the past 20 years.
But, sadly, the Democratic party is not interested in beating Republicans. Where would they be without them? There's literally no reason to vote for Hillary Clinton other than the fact that she's running against Donald Trump. The Democratic neolibs need, not just Republicans, but the very most outrageous, crazy Republicans they can get to force enough voters to hold their nose and go to the polls and provide a cover story for the fact that we're no longer living in a republic at all.
The Democratic party's *real* job over the past 25 years, has been to prevent the policies Bernie espouses from ever taking effect. They are there to be a giant sinkhole down which progressives dump their hopes, their labor, their money, and their time. And now they think they've pushed the Republicans far enough right--via triangulation--that they'll be able to use fear of Trump to usher Republican voters into Hillary's waiting arms. That's why they now actually WANT us to leave, to make room for the incoming Repubs and finish the realignment of American politics they began in the mid-80s. Anton Bursch from GOS said as much to me a couple years ago.
That's why what Bernie's doing is important--and irritating to them. It's pushing back against the despair doctrine a Hillary candidacy implicitly relies on. It's preventing the Overton window from moving as she (and her backers) want. But it has to go somewhere, and I hope Bernie has something in mind other than a speech at the convention. If he doesn't the work is going to be much, much harder.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
All excellent points.
I wish I could rec more than once.
I agree wholeheartedly. I too believe that all bets are off if Bernie were to become the nominee. No doubt several additional states would suddenly come into play.
And I think you're not only spot on regarding the way independents view HRC, but (as I said elsewhere) as much as 15% of the Democratic Party may walk if she becomes the nominee. That's the level of disgust with the status quo.
And you're absolutely correct that the Clintons are once gain pushing the party further to the right. They'd rather have Republicans who won't vote for Trump than progressives who won't back bullshit. They have Republicans in the same boat progressives have been in: where else are they gonna go?
If the Democrats go for HRC over Bernie, that's their right. It's my right to walk away and look for a political organization I can support. That's a part of "Bernie or bust" the establishment can't seem to get its head around. It's not disappointment because my candidate didn't win. It's refusal to be associated with a party that prefers HRC over Bernie.
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
Exactly
You have articulated very well why Democratic Party insiders are willing to lose an election rather than have Bernie as their candidate. This primary campaign has exposed the corruption of the Democrats as nothing else could. I see no alternative to starting a third party if Bernie is railroaded out. Thanks for this well written essay.
-Greed is not a virtue.
-Socialism: the radical idea of sharing.
-Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
John F. Kennedy, In a speech at the White House, 1962
Interesting post and commentary at Naked Capitalism
on Clinton, and possible "events" that would change the landscape:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/as-clinton-looks-vulnerable-event...
Great link. eom
"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"
If NJ
would give us a close race, Bernie will probably be all right.
Everyone has a spreadsheet and mine calls for 48+% for Bernie. More would be better, of course.
Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.