I'm assuming that the missing totals might be people who declined to answer the various demographic questions (for example income only totals up to 86%, so possibly 14% said, "Nunofyerfuggingbusiness how much I make, pally") but would have been nice to see that acknowledged.

by about 14% from what would be expected. so if you combine the two

Older Women vs younger voters

well that is a +7 for Bernie and a -7 for clinton right there. I am telling you, the polls are nothing but attempts to drown out momentum. Just like they were for Michigan when they were coming out with clinton at +23 just a few days before the election.

pure lies and propaganda.

PEOPLE THE PHONES!!!

with the boundary at the outer western suburbs, I think. So a huge underweigh. Albany is upstate, but the most machine-connected I think. I got my first Bernie call!!!!!

reps, who ignore my emails, endorsed the machine) on Saturday. A good thing because although the area is getting younger, richer, and more progressive its still a sunday-go-to-church neighborhood and those older folks could really use some talking to. Hopefully they found some sympathetic listeners.

Hey, I'm feeling the Bern, and have high hopes for NY next week.

But I'm also fact-based so here are some facts about New York. NYC is roughly 40% of the State population, and when you include the suburbs, it's about 60% of the State population.

When you so confidently state "the emphasis is on New York City. It is a big portion of New York, but 50% I do not think so." it completely discounts all your other arguments.

Is NYC 50%? Apparently not, but 40% isn't that far off from this poll. Including the suburbs at 70% isn't too bad considering it's about 60%.

Perhaps you could tone down that emphasis on criticizing the poll due to it's high favoritism of NYC and suburbs. It's hurting your argument.

Although there may be more people upstate than this poll suggests, there aren't necessarily more Democrats. There will be higher representation in the Dem polls of groups that traditionally veer Dem. NYC being 50% of the Dem primary vote is not out of the question.

The age factor is what's very off in this poll. They're probably matching their turnout model to 2008's where only 22% of the turnout was under 44. In 2008, NY was uncontested and turnout was very low compared to other states.

In Michigan and Wisconsin this year, Under 44 was 45% and 43% of the population. Age is a more dramatic factor than race this cycle. What Bernie's doing with the rallies not only helps his margins among young people (which are already absurd, literally 70 point spreads) but it ensures that the voter comparison on election day includes more of them. Hillary's most favorable group, AA's support her by between 35 and 40 points in northern cities but Bernie has made serious outreach in NY and perhaps more importantly, turnout is pretty low with AA's overall. Even if she wins AA's by 35 points, the effect on the overall total is mitigated when so few come to the polls. Only 16% of the Dem primary voters in 2008 was AA, to vote for OBAMA. Clinton is far less inspirational there. She's very "meh" and of course she and Bill have been digging up old wounds with their politically inept missteps this week.

If turnout his high among the young, the race will end up very close. The Wisconsin RCP average was 2.5 Bernie and he outperformed that by 11 points because the polls were similarly underestimating young turnout. Those same errors show why he could easily overperform again. And she has no early voting to count on so her supporters who don't care that much either way aren't going to stand in line for her coronation that they think she's already going to win anyway.

Bernie is a MOVEMENT candidate. I expect very high turnout in NY and very high youth turnout.