Something rotten stinks in Denmark (New York polling results)
Folks this is great news, please read and share with others.
The following is the latest cross tab from the Siena College poll, please tell me what is wrong with this picture
Look at the demographics of the voters surveyed for this poll. See the under representation of younger voters- 50% of those that took the poll are 55 or older, no offence but that is a terrible under representation the voters on election day. Moreover, the emphasis is on New York City. It is a big portion of New York, but 50%, it is like 43%. Moreover, the ethnicity break down is not a true representation of New York state.
Therefore, this is a type of poll that heavily favors Clinton, as a matter of fact it is tailored made for her. Therefore, what is the point- this is great news. We are only down by 10 in a bias poll with only 6 days to go. Keep the faith and keep up the great work.
Update
For additional background information regarding this matter I posted the link to the poll and reference information. I could have missed something, so feel free to check my work.
https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/bernie-narrows-gap-hillary-sti...
Another update to this essay- some people pointed out difference in the numbers. But guess what this is a poorly done poll that is the point. If I turned in this assignment at my work they would laugh me out of the room and it would hurt my career. Using data (that is incorrect even if it is only 5% to 7% in just a few spots) and claiming the race is a 10 point difference is laughable that is my point. So question everything and do not take it on face value and finally spread the word. Because this race is close and the results will shock everyone.
Comments
Some of the numbers don't add up
I'm assuming that the missing totals might be people who declined to answer the various demographic questions (for example income only totals up to 86%, so possibly 14% said, "Nunofyerfuggingbusiness how much I make, pally") but would have been nice to see that acknowledged.
I've been looking at the NY polls, too......
They didn't make a lot of sense to me either. Bernie is a native son, even if he moved to Vermont, Hillary is a Carpetbagger by any definition of the term. Why the sudden downturn for Bernie, while Hillary's numbers held? Has there been a lot of dirty advertising about Bernie that is getting some traction in the state?
Here are some numbers to chew on:
"JUNE 25, 2015 — Millennials, or America’s youth born between 1982 and 2000, now number 83.1 million and represent more than one quarter of the nation’s population. Their size exceeds that of the 75.4 million baby boomers, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates released today. Overall, millennials are more diverse than the generations that preceded them, with 44.2 percent being part of a minority race or ethnic group (that is, a group other than non-Hispanic, single-race white)."
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-113.html
So, from the get go, the poll is skewed heavily to older people, mostly women (I guess they would be the ones answering the phone). It would appear that Millennials are under represented by at least 35% which would change the numbers dramatically. Was this a test? Do I win anything?
For example,
Per Wisconsin exit polls, 57% of the voters were women. This is 60%. This also isn't the 1st ny poll to have women at 60%.
It takes that many of us to make up for
seventy-nine cents.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
You win the award for being aware (most people are asleep)
Besides that positive note and feedback that is the best I can do for you.
I cross posted this with a
I cross posted this with a reference to you at KossacksforSanders. Let's diffuse this as much as possible.
Chomsky said "The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum...." This spectrum now is "HRC will finally win" That's keeps us passive. Some of the polls are part of this game. Our reaction should be: Let's phonebank and canvass as if our life depends on it.
The establishment is powerful. If we want to change this world, we have to unite first. El pueblo unido jamas sera vencido.
Thank you!
I like that quote by Chomsky, I looked him up, seems like in a interesting and engaging person- thank you for sharing.
I agree 10000% we need to fight the passive information and data.
Well, data show that younger voters don't turn out as much
The percentage of the vote from younger folks is in the teens or 20s. Older folks turn out more. It doesn't matter if millennials are the largest bloc if they don't show up and vote.
True and good point
I guess we need to hold an election and see what happens.....wait a minute. So instead of bias polling how about if we let people (everyone) vote. I guess you are not a Clinton fan
It is after lunch on the west coast, so I can get a little sarky.
Far from a Hillary fan.
I'd love it if more young folks voted. It's Bernie or Bust for me.
So true
Bernie or Bust for me as well. Plus my 3 sons (18, 20 & 22). I am here and involved for them and all the other young people.
Ditto here
Two seniors and a millennial who just mailed her absentee ballot for Bernie. No more voting against the other guy. With Sanders all the way, come what may.
"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." --Jiddu Krishnamurti
also more women
by about 14% from what would be expected. so if you combine the two
Older Women vs younger voters
well that is a +7 for Bernie and a -7 for clinton right there. I am telling you, the polls are nothing but attempts to drown out momentum. Just like they were for Michigan when they were coming out with clinton at +23 just a few days before the election.
pure lies and propaganda.
PEOPLE THE PHONES!!!
If you do not understand that being part of the "establishment" is a slur in the minds of 99% of the U.S. population then you are completely out of touch and probably are one.
I agree
This poll is pure propaganda. Please share the news.
Upstate is 50% of the population
with the boundary at the outer western suburbs, I think. So a huge underweigh. Albany is upstate, but the most machine-connected I think. I got my first Bernie call!!!!!
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
According to the numbers on Wikipedia
NYC is approximately 43% of the population. So the city is slightly overrepresented. It's the age breakdown that is the big problem with this poll, as has intentionally been the case in so many polls.
Great point- thanks
Good inputs and feedback. I thought upstate had more voters, but at work so I did not have time to comb thru census information, post comments, and do my job.
If this is right this is
If this is right this is YUUUUGE news. It would mean that Bernie is closing on HRC.
Is it possible to estimate out of this data what the real Bernie-HRC difference would be?
The establishment is powerful. If we want to change this world, we have to unite first. El pueblo unido jamas sera vencido.
cnn had a scroll running across the bottom of the screen
yesterday quoting the clinton campaign as saying the margin of victory in ny might not be as great as predicted...so maybe their internals are telling them the same thing.
I added
a link to the poll and cross tabs to this essay for your viewing pleasure.
The Bernie kids were out in Clinton Hill, Brooklyn (where our
reps, who ignore my emails, endorsed the machine) on Saturday. A good thing because although the area is getting younger, richer, and more progressive its still a sunday-go-to-church neighborhood and those older folks could really use some talking to. Hopefully they found some sympathetic listeners.
good to hear!
go bernie! on to the convention
Reality Check
Hey, I'm feeling the Bern, and have high hopes for NY next week.
But I'm also fact-based so here are some facts about New York. NYC is roughly 40% of the State population, and when you include the suburbs, it's about 60% of the State population.
When you so confidently state "the emphasis is on New York City. It is a big portion of New York, but 50% I do not think so." it completely discounts all your other arguments.
Is NYC 50%? Apparently not, but 40% isn't that far off from this poll. Including the suburbs at 70% isn't too bad considering it's about 60%.
Perhaps you could tone down that emphasis on criticizing the poll due to it's high favoritism of NYC and suburbs. It's hurting your argument.
Reality is reality.
Indeed, NYC & suburbs are well over half of NY's population at 64%, per Wikipedia. As for racial demographics, NY's significantly whiter than the 60% given in the poll's weighting, but the Democratic Party's propensity to attract nonwhite voters complicates the question. Certainly, I don't have much trouble believing that the white vote in the primary will be less than 60%.
The two areas I'd have trouble with the poll are in the age and income-bracket weighting: Not even NYC has 30% of its population above the $100k line, far less the whole State (and the Democratic Party doesn't disproportionately attract rich people...). Also, assuming that a full 50% of the electorate will be over 55 looks off to me, somehow.
If the Siena poll falls over, it will be on those grounds, not on the racial/geographical weightings.
Self-exiled from DKos, ahead of the arrival of the Clinton Thought Police.
Markos' transition from gatecrasher to gate-polisher is now complete.
Things to keep in mind
Although there may be more people upstate than this poll suggests, there aren't necessarily more Democrats. There will be higher representation in the Dem polls of groups that traditionally veer Dem. NYC being 50% of the Dem primary vote is not out of the question.
The age factor is what's very off in this poll. They're probably matching their turnout model to 2008's where only 22% of the turnout was under 44. In 2008, NY was uncontested and turnout was very low compared to other states.
In Michigan and Wisconsin this year, Under 44 was 45% and 43% of the population. Age is a more dramatic factor than race this cycle. What Bernie's doing with the rallies not only helps his margins among young people (which are already absurd, literally 70 point spreads) but it ensures that the voter comparison on election day includes more of them. Hillary's most favorable group, AA's support her by between 35 and 40 points in northern cities but Bernie has made serious outreach in NY and perhaps more importantly, turnout is pretty low with AA's overall. Even if she wins AA's by 35 points, the effect on the overall total is mitigated when so few come to the polls. Only 16% of the Dem primary voters in 2008 was AA, to vote for OBAMA. Clinton is far less inspirational there. She's very "meh" and of course she and Bill have been digging up old wounds with their politically inept missteps this week.
If turnout his high among the young, the race will end up very close. The Wisconsin RCP average was 2.5 Bernie and he outperformed that by 11 points because the polls were similarly underestimating young turnout. Those same errors show why he could easily overperform again. And she has no early voting to count on so her supporters who don't care that much either way aren't going to stand in line for her coronation that they think she's already going to win anyway.
Bernie is a MOVEMENT candidate. I expect very high turnout in NY and very high youth turnout.