The economy is expected to crash this fall
This CNBC 'apocalypse' headline was renamed to be less scary. The previous headline was 'tsunami of evictions'.
In fact, between March 25 and April 10 of this year, nearly half of renters aged 18 to 64 reported that they were having trouble paying their rent or utilities, were food insecure or couldn’t afford needed medical care, according to the Urban Institute.
Thousands of tenants have been missing rent payments over the past few months...To keep people in their homes, the federal government banned evictions in federally assisted properties through July 25, and some cities and states, including Massachusetts, New York and Michigan, put their own temporary eviction moratoriums in place. But many of those bans begin expiring this month depending on the state...
Plus, the extra $600 per week in federal unemployment benefits is set to expire at the end of July.
One fifth of adults polled in May said they had slight or no confidence they would be able to pay their rent or mortgage due in June, and that's before the federal support is ended.
The scary part is that this is only the first stage of the crisis.
Here's Buzzfead:
The US economy right now is like a jumbo jet that’s in a steady glide after both its engines flamed out. In about six weeks, it will likely crash into the side of a mountain...
As millions of people experience a sudden collapse of their income at the very moment their landlords are allowed to start kicking them out, other bills will also come due. Payments on millions of paused student loans will begin again at the beginning of October; the more than 4 million homeowners who received a six-month pause on their mortgage after April’s mass layoffs will need to start making payments again at the end of October...
By some estimates, more than 40% of all the job losses of the last few months could be permanent, not temporary.
So reality starts returning in a couple weeks, and fully returns in October.
Then the fallout starts happening.
This is the Atlantic:
banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so. As a result, we could be on the precipice of another crash, one different from 2008 less in kind than in degree. This one could be worse...
After the housing crisis, subprime CDOs naturally fell out of favor. Demand shifted to a similar—and similarly risky—instrument, one that even has a similar name: the CLO, or collateralized loan obligation. A CLO walks and talks like a CDO, but in place of loans made to home buyers are loans made to businesses—specifically, troubled businesses. CLOs bundle together so-called leveraged loans, the subprime mortgages of the corporate world. These are loans made to companies that have maxed out their borrowing and can no longer sell bonds directly to investors or qualify for a traditional bank loan. There are more than $1 trillion worth of leveraged loans currently outstanding. The majority are held in CLOs.
The Bank for International Settlements, which helps central banks pursue financial stability, has estimated the overall size of the CDO market in 2007 at $640 billion; it estimated the overall size of the CLO market in 2018 at $750 billion. More than $130 billion worth of CLOs have been created since then, some even in recent months.
...The Bank for International Settlements estimates that, across the globe, banks held at least $250 billion worth of CLOs at the end of 2018.
But in December, the Financial Stability Board estimated that, for the 30 “global systemically important banks,” the average exposure to leveraged loans and CLOs was roughly 60 percent of capital on hand.
So over and above the consumer getting wiped out, the CLO market is about to crash because businesses can go bankrupt easier than consumers can.
This will blow up some banks.
This headline is Bloomberg:
Covid-19, and the economic crisis it has triggered, is stretching this tension between saving and the current-account to the breaking point. The culprit: exploding government budget deficits. According to the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit is likely to soar to a peacetime record of 17.9% of gross domestic product in 2020 before hopefully receding to 9.8% in 2021...
Compared with the situation during the global financial crisis, when domestic saving was a net negative for the first time on record, averaging -1.8% of national income from the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2010, a much sharper drop into negative territory is now likely, possibly plunging into the unheard of -5% to -10% zone.
...It will be inflationary — a welcome short-term buffer against deflation but, in conjunction with what is likely to be a weak post-Covid economic recovery, yet another reason to worry about an onset of stagflation — the tough combination of weak economic growth and rising inflation that wreaks havoc on financial markets.
This last scenario may not happen, but the first 3 are baked in.
Comments
Someone should post this at the CHAZ
and throughout the Movement for a People's Party...
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
Why the CHAZ?
Why not?
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
Oh, wow, "stagflation"
When was the last time that was a thing? The Carter years???
I've heard it suggested that Donald Trump is stuck in the Jimmy Carter position as grand political cyles go - might this be proof?
Maybe not, if the only alternative is (once again) the worst of all available opposition candidates...
...or maybe this is the year of the third-party miracle?
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
You can bet your sweet ass
that the dems are absolutely giddy about the economy crashing.
Trump may be walking dead and biden will anoint the next vice who will replace him post haste.
Through the eye of a needle.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Until they're blamed --
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
Will “Jubilee” enter
mainstream politics? And if so who exactly would start this talk, and when?
There simply is no alternative. That is, good ones. The slide we’re on would certainly be good news for the usual suspects.
Orwell: Where's the omelette?
I first learned about Jubilee in the mid-late '000s
The only way for its popularity NOT to just keep gaining steam among people my age is if the debt-pandemic clears up some other way - and even then, maybe someone should give us an incentive to actually support the idea of eternal debt.
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
Stock market running on Federal reserve bailouts
“There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue”
- Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury. September 1929
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
So many thanks
This is the moment that many realized they were bamboozeled.
"We need to look forward."
[video:https://youtu.be/0K27oIJlAlA]
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Not so sure
about the middle one--the CLOs. If the banks only have $1 trillion total invested in such things globally, that seems small enough for the Fed to just release another $1 trillion in funding and have it go away suddenly, no?
The state of denial about this economic disaster is weird.
Not only are these lame stimulus subsidies and protections going to expire soon, hardly anybody in the opinion mongering trade acknowledges that this "money" being handed out so stupidly is yet another unknown variable. With more "greenbacks" created while productive activity remains diminished, you will have more dollars chasing fewer goods -- stagflation. Am I nuts or shouldn't that be the FIRST thing to become obvious in this unprecedented economic calamity?
There will be weird dislocations and specific hyper-profit opportunities (like Zoom, Amazon and Fed Ex) that will obscure traditional economic measurements. While real estate prices will probably collapse, the price of coffee, donuts and foodstuff that deliver protein will probably go through the roof. So the talking heads will be able to say that "overall" inflation is under control.
Three months in, and now it starting to reach at least an internet level of discussion. We are so screwed.
I am turning grouchy for the first time in decades as I see the end of pretty much everything I have known to be "reality." Luckily, we all have not been killed by the Asteroid Virus so that we can watch the end of civilization in relatively good health!
I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.
The Weimar republic had a weird economic theory.
That said that inflation was caused by not enough currency in circulation. Everyone knows how that worked out.
The "Chicago school" has an equally daft theory that private monopolies can do anything better than government agencies and laisez-faire will save the day - with tax money handed to the God-like job creators who sole interest in life is providing gainful employment to anyone.
That will end like the Weimar fallacy.
NOTE:
The spellchecker wanted to change misspelled laiisez-faire to "malaise-faire".
I think that's a good name!
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
The national debt is now $26 trillion
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
Hey guys did you hear the latest news on BlackRock?
Trumps labor secretary Scalia just let them have control over peoples 401k accounts. This way they can divert them into high risk funds or just skim off the top in fees. Common Dreams has the story on this. How much longer till they get their hands on social security? Well whatever is left of it after it gets gutted from Bipartisan legislation that is. 30 dempublicans just signed a letter to go after it because congress gave away all our money to rich people. Swell country where we just watch as everything is stolen from us. This pot of water is almost boiling. Will we jump out of it any time soon?
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
link or reference?
that sounds dicey. it's someone's interpretation.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Sound dicey because it is dicey
I think this might be it, TVITW:
Leading US Retirees 'Like Lambs to the Slaughter,' Trump Labor Dept. Quietly Offers Up 401k Plans to Private Equity Vultures
"Private equity firms will now be allowed to access—and skim fees off of—the $9 trillion in 100 million workers' 401(k) plans and IRAs."
More from Edward Siedle at Forbes, June 13:
Trump DOL Throws 401k Investors To The Wolves
Welcome to the casino.
Thought it might be something like that.
It allows private equity. it doesn't transfer anything.
Two things have to happen.
1. your company invites the wolves to feast on you.
2. You sign up for the wolves, either knowingly out of greed or as a lamb to the slaughter not knowing what you are doing. IMHO ONLY bond funds and S&P 500 funds belong in 401k's. If you want to speculate with funky stuff (and I have) do it in a private account, not your retirement account.
Make no mistake, many workers will be fleeced as a result of this. You can't cure dumb and greedy.
And, to quote the Eli wallach character in The Magnificent Seven, "If God didn't want them shorn, why did he make them sheep?"
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Roll the dice, get out the shears.
I think you're pretty much on target with your two bullet points. That was my takeaway also.
Doubtless, language will be used to cover the fact that people's retirement funds will have been provided to ruthless casino gamblers, with that option was shown only as another slightly riskier path in your 401k choices.
I also agree that there will be plenty of sheep shorn.