US/UK seem determined to cause their own demise

The political and military leaders of Ukraine seem as worried about their allies as they are about Russia.

A key Ukrainian national security official sat down today and told the country’s allies what they could do to help: please, calm down.
...
Reznikov, the defense official, told the BBC that he did not regard the collection of Russian forces stationed along the Ukrainian border as enough to stage an invasion.
“This is their territory, and they have the right to move to the left, and to the right,” he said. “Is it unpleasant for us? Yes, it’s unpleasant, but it’s not news to us.”

Ukraine President Zelensky said the decision by the United States and United Kingdom to withdraw some staff from their embassies in Kyiv was a “mistake.” He also said that he is ready to meet with President Putin and that the "sanctions are not designed for our country to help our country."
But the really big statement Zelensky made that barely got noticed was this:

Zelensky was also blunt about NATO's role in the crisis, declaring (in a line that Vladimir Putin would also agree with): "Tell us openly we will never get into NATO."

Russia would stand down if NATO would simply do that.
The warmongers that dominate the media in Washington and London have absolutely no intention of calming down. Their eyes are focused squarely on the thing that is closest to their hearts - carnage. Lots and lots of other people's bloodshed. Poor people's bloodshed.

However, no matter how much they might want to, they can't just start carpet bombing Russian cities. This isn't Serbia, Syria, or Iraq. Russia can fight back.
Thus the warmongers have to go through the steps before. One of the most important steps is economic sanctions. Fortunately, for them the sanctions step is already largely exhausted. There is really only two sanctions still available.

#1 Sanction Putin personally

Joe Biden has said he will consider personal sanctions against Vladimir Putin if Russia invades Ukraine, as western leaders step up military preparations and make plans to shield Europe from Russian gas being cut off.

The downside of this would mean that it would effectively kill all diplomacy with Russia. If you wanted a war, this would be the way to go about it.
But it's #2 that is getting the most attention.

#2 Cut Russia off from SWIFT

London (CNN Business)Some are calling it the "nuclear option."

That is literally the first sentence.
Here's a Pro Tip - If you were ever considered a foreign policy action with a major nuclear power, and the action had the nickname of the "nuclear option." Then it's a bad idea.

As Western governments threaten Russia with a package of unprecedented sanctions aimed at deterring President Vladimir Putin from ordering an invasion of Ukraine, there's one measure in particular that appears to strike fear at the heart of the Kremlin: cutting the country off from the global banking system.
US lawmakers have suggested in recent weeks that Russia could be removed from SWIFT, a high security network that connect thousands of financial institutions around the world.

This sanction would indeed cause a great deal of pain in Russia, but it wouldn't destroy Russia. It would have an immediate reaction.

Senior Russian lawmakers have responded by saying that shipments of oil, gas and metals to Europe would stop if that happened.

"If Russia is disconnected from SWIFT, then we will not receive [foreign] currency, but buyers, European countries in the first place, will not receive our goods — oil, gas, metals and other important components," Nikolai Zhuravlev, vice speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament, said Tuesday, according to state media outlet TASS.

That's not 100% true, but it's mostly true, and that means incredible suffering in Europe as well.
Russia supplies around 40% of Europe's gas, and this couldn't come at a worse time.

As of December 2021, storage levels are below the minimum volume recorded for this time of the year in any of the previous five years. In mid-December 2021, Europe had 690 TWh of gas in storage. On average from 2016 to 2020, it took until the third week of January for reserves to drop this low...
European gas production has decreased in the last few years because of the closure of gas fields.

Without SWIFT it would be difficult for any country to buy Russian goods. America is trying to organize natgas exporters to meet this shortfall, but it is a doomed effort. There simply isn't enough infrastructure to switch from pipeline to ship.
Even if there was enough infrastructure, natgas being shipped halfway around the world is going to cost significantly higher. So cutting Russia off of SWIFT is going to cause almost immediate suffering in Europe, and that's only the short-term.

Of course it will also cause immediate suffering in Russia.

"The cutoff would terminate all international transactions, trigger currency volatility, and cause massive capital outflows," Maria Shagina, a visiting fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, wrote in a paper last year for Carnegie Moscow Center. Excluding Russia from SWIFT would cause its economy to shrink by 5%, former finance minister Alexei Kudrin estimated in 2014.
...
There is precedent for removing a country from SWIFT.
SWIFT unplugged Iranian banks in 2012 after they were sanctioned by the European Union over the country's nuclear program. Iran lost almost half of its oil export revenue and 30% of foreign trade following the disconnection, according to Shagina.

So there will be short-term pain all around, including in the U.S because German and American banks are the most frequent SWIFT users to work with Russian banks.

After the short-term pain is over, the real consequences begin.
Russia has been planning this for eight years.

Russia has taken steps in recent years to blunt the trauma should it be removed from SWIFT.
Moscow established its own payment system, SPFS, after it was hit by Western sanctions in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea early that year. SPFS now has around 400 users, according to Russia's central bank. Twenty percent of domestic transfers are currently done through SPFS, according to Shagina, but the size of messages are limited and operations are limited to weekday hours.
China's fledgling Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, may provide another alternative to SWIFT.

Russia has also managed to eliminate U.S. dollars from their economy. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Russia reached an all time high in December of 2021.
While also eliminating dollars from their arms export deals.

The Economist was very clear about the danger of this move.

America’s foes would rush to alternatives, hastening its financial decline

Recall that the EU created INSTEX when Iran was kicked off of SWIFT. So while the EU didn't really use it (except as a test) the mechanism already exist to get around the U.S. sanctions.

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Shahryar's picture

sorry, I don't have a document saying "Joe, do this to boost your ratings" but I bet there's an audio tape somewhere.

And what's worse is that it won't do that at all. It'll sink him lower. Because it's a sham!!!

And stupid, too.

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QMS's picture

why the US military regime can not see this coming is beyond understanding

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question everything

about cutting off Russian fuel to Europe is that our government seems unconcerned about the enormous cost to Europe of transporting it from distant sources in the West or the Gulf or wherever. And that makes me think they're planning for the American taxpayer to cover it. I don't think that's a far-fetched bribe scenario. We do subsidize the LNG industry, don't we? We do have an unlimited money printing press for evil, don't we?

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Also known as propaganda

The White House in recent weeks publicized what it said was a developing Russian “false-flag” operation to create pretext for an invasion. Britain named specific Ukrainians it accused of having ties to Russian intelligence officers plotting to overthrow President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The U.S. also released a map of Russian military positions and detailed how officials believe Russia will try to attack Ukraine with as many as 175,000 troops.

Experts credit the White House for declassifying intelligence and moving to rebut false claims before they’re made — a so-called “prebuttal” that undercuts their effectiveness better than an after-the-fact explanation.
...
The State Department recently published a fact sheet listing and rejecting several Russian claims. And the Treasury Department sanctioned four men accused of ties to influence operations intended to set the pretext in Ukraine for a new invasion.
...Moscow continues to make demands that NATO not accept Ukraine or further expand to any other countries. And after British intelligence accused him of being a possible Russia-backed candidate for president, Ukrainian politician Yevheniy Murayev denied the claim and told the AP that it “looks ridiculous and funny.”

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@gjohnsit It's not just Democrats

Night after night, the host of the top-rated show on Fox News repeats Vladimir Putin’s talking points justifying aggression against Ukraine and opposing U.S. aid to that threatened sovereign country. Tucker Carlson’s influence is felt across right-wing social media, where it is amplified by figures such as Steve Bannon, Mike Cernovich, Glenn Greenwald, and Mollie Hemingway. A highly visible coterie of socially conservative intellectuals also argues the case against helping Ukraine.

Meanwhile, day after day, Republican officeholders in the House and the Senate urge more support for Ukraine. That list includes not only traditionalists such as Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, but also many legislators who got close to former President Donald Trump, such as Senators Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, and Lindsey Graham.

Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in the Senate, has backed the Biden administration’s approach, as have the top Republicans on the House Intelligence and Armed Services Committees. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has blasted Joe Biden’s Ukraine policy as too weak on Russia, not too strong.
...Conversely, some conservative talking heads have embraced the politicians’ pro-Ukraine position. National Review editorialized in favor of aid to Ukraine, for example. The right-leaning Commentary has published important Ukraine statements too. The Wall Street Journal editorial board has also written forcefully for deterrence of Russian aggression.

But broadly, Republican elected officials and the think tanks that advise them are staunchly pro-Ukraine; conservative talkers (especially on TV and social media) are varying degrees of anti-Ukraine.

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@gjohnsit https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/why-washington-will-soon-dump-ukra...

Our "encircle our enemies plan" never seems to understand that the way may not be through.

Or Over, as Cheney used to brag. He meant drones. Over Baghdad's walls.

The Way may be an entirely new way. Cyber.perhaps

Hypersonic low-flying missles that can encircle the earth and we cannot stop them. China has these.

Our Plans are ways to Boost our Military Budget and Spending without doing a thing as far as---wait for it---Keeping Us Safe.

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NYCVG

@NYCVG Never mind my comment.

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NYCVG

@NYCVG

discussed at MoA today in any or all threads because there is a lot there! Many subjects, including the one you just cited.

Sadly, the ways our foreign policy can go wrong are nearly infinite.

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@NYCVG
MoA linked to this article, which I really liked.

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@gjohnsit @gjohnsit

From the article:

...Worse than that, throughout the year Zelenskiy has been forced to devote significant time and attention to an attempt by the radical part of the security community, close to Poroshenko, to launch an impeachment process through the so-called Wagnergate affair. They claimed that Zelenskiy committed an act of treason through a last-minute cancellation of a madcap plan, hatched by Ukrainian military intelligence, which envisaged the forced landing of a civilian Turkish plane carrying mercenaries from the infamous Russian Wagner group. The affair resulted in an open rebellion by the military intelligence chief, which Zelenskiy had to put down in September.

By the time the US went into red alert mode over “imminent” Russian aggression, Zelenskiy was clearly more preoccupied with domestic politics and the threat of a coup. His messaging became confused as he tried to link his foes, such as oligarch Rinat Akhmetov and ex-president Poroshenko to Russia, while it was clear that if any great power were behind them, then it would be the United States of America.

Akhmetov is one of the top sponsors of the Atlantic Council. The militant street movement, which backs Poroshenko and keeps the threat of a new Maidan alive, is run by Andriy Levus, an activist and former security official directly linked to diaspora organisations created by Nazi collaborators who found refuge in North America under the auspices of the CIA.

I've wondered about this so-called "Wagner Group," often described as a Russian mercenary group, that so often gets Russia into trouble. Is this the first clear indication that it is a CIA false flag unit?

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@Linda Wood
If the old Ukraine president had been re-elected then this war would have already begun.
I'm going to pray for Zelenskiy's health tonight, and that he stays away from helicopters and airplanes.

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we've seen this all before

Condemning Buchanan's version of “America First” foreign policy — which caused the former Nixon White House aide to become one of the most vocal opponents of the new war which Frum and his neocon comrades were desperate to send mostly working-class American families to go fight — Frum condemned these anti-war conservatives of being guilty of every bigotry he could think of: racism, anti-Hispanic animus, and anti-Semitism. He concluded his lengthy accusatory screed with rhetoric that should sound very familiar to anyone who has heard Frum cast similar aspersions over the last five years toward anyone not as obsessed with Trump as he is, or more recently, not as eager as he is to send other people's kids or American resources to fight Russia:

They began by hating the neoconservatives. They came to hate their party and this president. They have finished by hating their country.

War is a great clarifier. It forces people to take sides. The paleoconservatives have chosen — and the rest of us must choose too. In a time of danger, they have turned their backs on their country. Now we turn our backs on them

This rhetorical tactic — impugning the patriotism and loyalty of one's opponents — is now the dominant theme in American liberalism precisely because liberals are now led by neocons. Under this rubric, anyone (on the right or the left) who opposed Hillary Clinton and then Joe Biden during the Trump years was deemed not just wrong but treasonous: a Kremlin agent. That included Bernie Sanders, Jill Stein, WikiLeaks, leftist critics of Democrats, right-wing critics of Democrats, and in general anyone who echoed President Obama's long-standing view that Russia did not pose a serious threat to the U.S. I cannot count the number of times I have been accused of being a Kremlin agent or asset not by random social media trolls but by prominent Democratic Party and liberal media and political figures for expressing those views.

That is now, by far, the favorite attack against anyone who believes that Ukrainian borders are not important enough to U.S. interests to involve the U.S. in a war. The most vocal media opponent of U.S. involvement in Ukraine has been Fox News’ Tucker Carlson (though, as usual these days, war skepticism is also found on many Fox shows, including Laura Ingraham's, where I recently appeared to make that case, but almost never on CNN or MSNBC).

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comments today at MoA is this one, coinciding somewhat with gjohnsit's concerns about Zelensky's future:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/why-washington-will-soon-dump-ukra...

After reading b's analysis, I had the same thought as a couple of other commentators...what if Zelinsky turns to Russia for help? I don't think that he is either a fanatic or stupid, so to me he has three options at the moment:
1. Launch the attack that US/UK really want and have his troops and possibly his country destroyed by Russia;
2. Refuse to launch the attack and be arrested or assassinated, and then whoever is picked to launch it will force thousands of Ukrainians to die; or
3. Sign a CSTO type agreement with Russia and have Russian/Belarusian help to have the Nazis removed from power and NATO troops chased out of the country.

Posted by: Victor | Jan 28 2022 20:32 utc | 52

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@Linda Wood
I have been thinking about that. Ukraine's biggest problem is the neonazis empowered by the US, and now the US neocons wanting a war with Russia. When Ukrainian blood flows in the streets the neocons get to use this in their endless propoganda against Russia. On the other hand, there is no other nation that would work for Ukraine as much as Russia. They are brothers, sisters and cousins. Real help for Ukraine is as close as Moscow. Russia would turn over heaven and hell to help a friendly Ukraine. That's the real long term solution. The present Ukraine is a monster created by the US and their close nazi friends from Western Ukraine. Also I'd like to point out that it is extremely unlikely that Russia would start a bloody offensive against Ukraine for the reasons that I mentioned.

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Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

I suggest you mute the video and engage "CC"

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCt-khoYgKw&t=230s]

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It is one thing to do public displays of chest pounding, but it is another to believe your own bullshit. And I think many of those running the foreign policy and military believe their bullshit. After not visiting TOP for a while I was wondering what the dem party riff raff was thinking. My gawd. Should have known better. Read only two anti-war posters. Complained about the lust for war. And that is what the elites with the admin and lackies in the media and think tanks want. War.

I have been taken aback how utterly unhinged has been the rhetoric. Biden is warning Zelensky that Kiev will be "sacked"? Like this about the Vandals sacking Rome? Gold fillings taken off dead bodies, women raped, iPhones stolen, and on and on.

As for sanctions, it will be the proverbial cut off your nose to spite your face. Like take the US attempting to export to Europe natural gas from US and Middle East. One pundit noted that let's say it can be done. Problem is natural gas is used in the production of fertilizer. Now gas will be diverted to keep EU warm, and fertilizer production is greatly reduced. And by the way, Russia is the leading exporting of fertilizer. And at least with American producers of LNG, they will rip Europe blind the cost will be so high.

One of the problems is that these elected officials, State department, think tankers, etc is that truly believe that Russia is what McCain called them--a gas station pretending to be a country. The cliches spewed by the elites and their sheep at places like TOP is disassociated from reality. (BTW let me bring in Joe Rogan. View past clips the guy is an utter Russophobe.)

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Ukraine not feeling it

Britain’s politicians and intelligence chiefs have stepped up warnings about the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine over the past week, yet it is not clear, despite a drumbeat of activity, that a military attack is any more certain.

That drumbeat has been matched in Washington, but, significantly, the concern is not shared in Kyiv. As Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said on Friday, high tensions with Russia are not new “We have been in the situation for eight years,” he said.

The analysis in Ukraine diverges from the west’s assessment of the crisis as primarily a military one. The belief in Kyiv is that Vladimir Putin’s goal is the long-term destabilisation of Ukraine, and that the Russian leader may have other objectives than invasion.
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Nevertheless, senior officials in Kyiv believe that the latest signals from Moscow suggest the Kremlin may be moving away from a military confrontation next month.

Speaking at a wreath-laying ceremony on Sunday, Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s security council, was dismissive. “Today, they’re saying that Russia is threatening Ukraine. This is absolutely ridiculous. There is no threat,” he said.

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