The Unraveling of the Democratic "Blue Wall"

Routine Maintenance.

Routine Maintenance is what keeps things running. It is what prevents more expensive problems, further on down the line.

The Democratic Party has forgotten that principle, especially when it comes the lives and the livelihoods of the blue collar workers, so callously discarded in a seemingly never-ending series of Trade Deals (designed for the top one percent) ...

Donald Trump won the presidency by turning the Rust Belt red.

On Tuesday night, he swept Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin — states that voted twice for Barack Obama and that rank near the top in manufacturing jobs. Although his promise to restore the glory days of building cars and pouring steel sometimes made him sound like a guy who learned about past-their-prime factory towns by watching “Roger & Me” and listening to “Born in the U.S.A.,” he tapped into a still-strong nostalgia for a time when a young man could go straight from high school to an industrial job that paid enough to support a family.
[...]

Clinton, on the other hand, seemed to take the Upper Midwest for granted, never campaigning in Wisconsin and finally making a panicky visit to Detroit on the Friday before the election. In the 1980s, Michigan was the forging ground of the Reagan Democrats: hawkish, socially conservative, suburban, blue-collar workers who ignored the United Auto Workers’ entreaties to vote for Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale.
[...]

Trump promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was signed by Bill Clinton in 1993 over the objection of organized labor and has since been blamed for the loss of manufacturing jobs to Third World countries with lower wage and labor standards. Nowhere is that a sorer point than in Flint. In 1980, GM employed 80,000 in the Flint area; today, it employs 7,200. Flint’s decline began a decade before NAFTA, but the trade deal was seen as just another kick at the auto industry. In 1999, GM closed Buick City, a Flint assembly plant that once provided a living to 28,000 workers. Since its demolition, the site has gone the way of all Flint, with poplars and yarrow pushing through cracks in the asphalt.

The Rust Belt was turning red already. Donald Trump just pushed it along.
by Edward McClelland -- November 9, 2016

Dems, by callously pursuing the promises of The Job Exporter and Chief, to enact yet another Trade Policy (the TPP), written by corporate lawyers, in secret -- perhaps sealed their own fate, and precipitated their own "undoing", in the ripple-like crumbling of their infamous Blue Wall of the upper Midwest.

Nobody likes to be taken for granted; least of all hardworking folks cast aside for the sake of quick and easy profits for CEO and Stockholders, far removed from the craftsmanship and toil of the daily grind.

Union-made label loses its appeal, if that "Union" is that of ultra-cheap labor of unregulated sweatshops, springing up like greed-laden Money-trees, in so many far off-distant lands.

[...]
Instead, those who did vote stampeded to Trump in insurmountable numbers. In particular, Trump beat Clinton among white voters without a college education by an astonishing 39 percentage pointsa margin larger than Ronald Reagan’s against Walter Mondale in his 1984 landslide. Trump not only beat her by nearly 50 points among blue-collar white men, but by almost 30 points among non-college-educated white women. (Trump is president largely because white working-class women gave him double-digit margins in key states — a development that may occupy gender studies scholars for years.) Similarly, Trump captured more than three-fifths of rural voters nationwide; in the decisive Rustbelt states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Michigan [... and Ohio ...]

By dislodging Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and possibly Michigan, Trump shattered the blue wall — the 18 states (plus the District of Columbia) with 242 Electoral College votes that had voted Democratic in at least each election since 1992. If Clinton had defended the blue wall through the Rustbelt, she would have won, because the four diverse Sunbelt battlegrounds (Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada) that she captured would have pushed her past an Electoral College majority. Yet even with her wins in those four states, Clinton ultimately stumbled between the party’s past and future: While Trump toppled heavily blue-collar Rustbelt states that stand as the last monuments to the Democrats’ earlier working-class-based coalition, Tuesday made clear the party’s new coalition of minorities and white-collar whites has not yet grown large enough to reliably hold behemoth Sunbelt battlegrounds such as Florida and North Carolina (much less Arizona or Georgia), especially against a Republican surge in those states’ own substantial blue-collar and non-urban populations.

The result is a genuine hinge point in American history, as consequential as it was unanticipated. [...]

How the Rustbelt Paved Trump's Road to Victory
by Ronald Brownstein, theatlantic.com -- Nov 10, 2016

This time the long-suffering, long-neglected Blue-collar workers (of the Blue Wall) made their Voices heard. They Voted, en-mass. And they believed the "promises" of the Candidate who at least recognized their Downsizing Plight. Their on-going lost of economic hope ...

They turned away from the Candidate who couldn't even be bother to "show up" in there, in foundation-bare towns and burbs.

Nobody likes being "taken for granted." Eventually everyone reaches their breaking point -- and SO the Dem's once-solid wall of Labor-party principles, crumbles.   Like so many politician promises, never kept.  Or worse yet, betrayed.



Is this a permanent realignment, or merely flirting with the celebrity?   Time will tell.

Many of these blue-collar working stiffs were willing to vote for Bernie Sanders (anyone recall the Michigan Primary?) ... too bad the DNC pawn-brokers failed to read the signs, that were blaring in their faces.

Too bad they just took, the Midwestern Blue Wall for granted.  THAT was the true cause of their undoing.  They let that essential "tune-up" lapse, just one year too many.

They let their think-tank-driven Electoral sedan, break-down on the side of the road, like the over-used Jalopy it really was ... Maybe someone in the DNC should have paid attention to that early "Engine Warning" light. And not put that signal on hold for "some other day, 'after they Win'."  Maybe next time the Dems will actually put forward a Candidate, who put the Voices of the Workers miles ahead, of the knowing nods of the deep-pocket Bankers ...?

Live and learn they say.  The principle of Routine Maintenance is definitely one worth following, in Life and in Politics -- the alternative of waiting for the "inevitable breakdown", can really hinder one's forward progress.   Indeed, Everyone's forward progress.

====== Personal aside =========

Being from that Midwest rusty region myself, it is truly sad to see the Democratic Party so pragmatically, so blithely, cast aside the "Made in America" Union label.  For so many pieces of Lobbyist's Gold.

They are NOT the same Party that I grew up with, that I defended, ever since I cast my first Vote for Carter (so many toil-filled decades ago).  Having two voices, two opinions -- one for private negotiations and one for public consumption -- is NOT what the Democratic Party, used to stand for.

IOW, the DNC hacks only have themselves to blame ... though they probably never will ... (they have fallen too far for that, to ever admit fault.)  Greed is not a substitute for Votes, however.  Having reliable steadfast Values, is ...

Keeping your word, fulfilling your promises AFTER the Election, is ...

Duplicity -- is NOT the Answer ...

to any serious question a Blue Collar Worker ever asked.

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jamess's picture

Born in the U.S.A.

https://youtu.be/OuJUq58VQXQ

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jamess's picture

Be a ... Simple (kind of) Man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMmTkKz60W8

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is that back then, WJC was allowed to campaign as a populist who opposed NAFTA even though I'm sure he had already guaranteed the money people that he would push it through.

Now, Democrats are not even allowed to fake being a populist. It might give us plebes ideas.

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jamess's picture

I remember

being at first confused, and ultimately disappointed,

by the chasm between Bill's Campaign rhetoric and his eventual waffling to so many conservative concessions.

And the hard-sell on NAFTA was the start of it.

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jamess's picture

turning Welfare into cheap labor,
turning the Mentally Afflicted into the streets,

and turning our competitive and free-speech media,
into profit-driven Mega-Conglomeration.

Dismantling Glass-Steagall safeguards, finally revealed Bill's true colors.

ie. Money Green

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Your were, are, and always will be, my heart.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

jamess's picture

I've been on hiatus,
regathering my mental balance.

Re-exploring some long-neglected creative hobbies.
Doing some hiking too.

All things in Moderation ...

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jamess's picture

.

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Forgot.
Anybody taking me as their own is taking me at their peril.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

ZimInSeattle's picture

The neoliberalcons got what they deserved.

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"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020

jamess's picture

Who interests are neoliberalcons really working for.

Someday they need to do that soul-searching,

and let the rest of us, naive Voters know.  If they dare ...

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They should have considered that, but ("Where are they going to go?"), thank goodness they didn't - no nuclear war this year!

I've been a Democrat all my life, and done a lot of campaign work for them, but never again. Never. The primary showed us that they're actually more corrupt than the GOP.

The truth of "crooked Hillsry" didn't help her, either. Or the TPP waffling. Or generally hiding out. Or all the people dead at her instigation.

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Makes me so angry, Robert Reich had warned about exactly this. The economy wasn't sound for most Americans, the trade deals were dumb. Yet the DNC and establishment Dems continued to drink the Wall Street, free trade Kool-Aid. They blew off the New Deal working class union voter coalition thinking the urban hipster and minority coalition would be enough to overcome it. What's worse, they blew off the union voters for no damn good reason. WTF would the country gain with the TPP? With kissing up even more to Wall Street? Bernie Sanders got what Reich was saying and he tried to get the message to the DNC. Bernie knew he probably wouldn't win it but he hoped to at least get the message through the dense skulls of the establishment. They didn't listen. And President Trump is the result.

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jamess's picture

you summarize their tone-deafness very well with your comments.

One of the links I had in the post, paints the duplicitous deafness very well too:

Why Hillary Clinton’s Wall Street speeches don’t matter

What is that old saying again, about "Assumptions"
and the pundits that make them ...

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He said she was the only realistic choice for America to make. How'd that work out again, Professor?

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Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.

mouselander's picture

...simply found themselves consigned to the neoliberals "basket of expendables." In the brave new world of economic globalism, it just didn't make sense to pretend that people without college diplomas and highly specialized skills deserved to be paid anything more than slave wages.

What I guess they didn't count on is the fact that blue collar voters would subsequently conclude that "Third Way" Democrats like Hillary deserved to be consigned to the "basket of expendables" as well.

Now really - who could possibly have seen that coming?

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inactive account

Most of the white collar jobs are going down the tubes, too. New college grads are waiting table, and middle class people who get downsized can't find anything anywhere near comparable. For one class, IT jobs are being off shored, too. Benefits are a thing of the past.

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Rebuilding the Blue Wall will create jobs. Or maybe creating jobs will rebuild the Blue Wall.

All I know is President Obama saved the auto industry by cutting wages, and he stayed the hell away from Wisconsin when he was most needed. Hillary promised more of the same. What happened to the Green Economy promises of 2008?

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"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."

Roger Fox's picture

Theres a rule in campaigns, you have to ask them for their votes. Hillary just didn't do that, I'm not sure but she may have not even visited Wisconsin.

For me the over arching concept is if you run an establishment candidate in a anti-establishment election, you're probably going to lose.

But hey.. right now at this second, Bernie Sanders is the most important and powerful "Democrat" in Washington DC.

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

jamess's picture

First Rule of "Vote Club" ...

is to 'talk about' Vote Club!

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And, right, she didn't visit Wisconsin after April, though we got Bernie pushing her.

"Where are they going to go?" Surprise!

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Roger Fox's picture

Nice bro....

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

jamess's picture

appreciate that.

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First, most excellent post. Stepping back Hillary and her circle knew she was going to run for president. So what did she do between leaving State and her official announcement? She campaigned with the people she thought were her base--rich and powerful corporate interests. And she personally made more money than any average American will ever see or ever hope for. I did searches to see if in her 2 years of becoming personally rich if she ever reached out for no fees labor unions, advocacy groups, etc. None that I could find. Maybe, but I didn't find any.

She neglected basically white working class men and women, who as the figures now indicate, voted for Obama previously. They were never part of coalition her base. She replicated by her actions when Bush called rich people, his base. And in those speeches as revealed by Wikileaks we see a republican corporate insider supporting fracking, supporting Simpson-Bowles, Wall Street deregulation, etc.

Given what I saw, read, and heard as a Bernie supporter, identity politics was one of the critical attack modes against Sander and and his supporters. If TOPS is representative of many Clinton activists, they believed they could alienate various segments that put Obama over the top, and believed that electorally, their numbers were not needed. That white votes did not matter. That liberal female voters and people of color win alone could win it for Clinton. Did this disastrous thinking filter up form the TOPs of the world into the campaign?

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jamess's picture

and analysis, MrWebster. And thanks for the feedback.

Treating Voters as a last minute "chore" to be handled,
will not win earn them solid support,
when all the while the real priority is to cater to their Corporate base,
in secret pay-to-play meetings.

I think TOP was following "The Clinton Machine's" lead,
not the other way around. And look at how well that turned out.
Fake sincerity will burn em everytime.

Most people can smell Authenticity (or the lack thereof)
from a mile away usually.

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GreatLakeSailor's picture

meant to build on your excellent comment.
--I see the term "white working class" all the time, but in my rustbelt hamlet it is at least as much "working class" as it is "white working class". In the local watering hole it is primarily European-American, but there are plenty of African Americans and Hispanic-Americans. There's a few old geezers that'll get drunk and let nigger or spic fly once in a while, and it creates a moment of dead-air - that's not OK, but we ain't gonna throw an old guy out on his ass for that - primarily because in practice the older folks are just as likely to stand outside and smoke a cig with AA's or HA's and bitch about the woes of the day.
--The Clintonians thought they could win without working class voters. Unsaid but glaringly obvious in that is they didn't give a shit about working class voters' quality of life. It never even occurred to them - simply: "can we win with/without their votes?"
--To be "proudly Dem" in this area is to be a fucking chump. No one believes the R's ain't liars too, but the trade scams of the Dems are a raw and open wound. Open because the top Dem in the country (Obama) continued to try to chump us. How big a fuckin' fool you gotta be to fall for the same scam again!?!?!?

Bernie woulda cleaned Trump's clock. Feingold woulda won. Fuck.

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Compensated Spokes Model for Big Poor.

great points.

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GreatLakeSailor's picture

Just thought I'd add my 2¢ to the convo...

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Compensated Spokes Model for Big Poor.

Benny's picture

From guest author Anthony Parisi, Forbes:

Democrats should see that the centrist way of life is no longer a viable option. Democrats must become more progressive (look towards Senators Sanders and Warren). They must fight hard on all issues important to liberals. Issues like the environment, student loan debt, Black Lives Matter, food safety and, most importantly, the economy.

Democrats must force the move forward; they cannot get stuck up on the present and look to the future. They must stop the attacks on James Comey (he did Clinton no favors, but it was her flaws the lost the race). They cannot stay in the center and hope for“Reagan Democrats” and Paul Ryan-types of Republicans; they won’t vote for them ever. If centrist Republicans didn’t vote Democrat now, they never will. The Democratic Party also can’t become more polarized and only focus on minorities and those in the inner cities. That would only anger the Trump supporters and continue to divide the nation even more.

I believe that if the entire Democrat party doesn’t move to the left, we will begin to see a three-party system. The Left (Sanders, Warren), the Center (Bush family and Clinton family) and the Right (Trump, Alt Right Movement).

It appears that Bernie is trying to be the Phoenix in picking up the pieces of the Dems. I'm wondering why he wants to do that, considering the Establishment knives are already after him (mainly from the Rethug side, but some on the Dem side too). To me, he has a great opportunity to start a new party. But I guess I will see what develops. I'm an Indie and will be in that middle for now.

Nice essay, Jamess

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One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will. To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--Tennyson

jamess's picture

Bernie is trying to pick up the pieces,

because he perceives it as "the Right Thing to Do."

thanks Benny for the comments and feedback.

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Benny's picture

From the NYT:

I am saddened, but not surprised, by the outcome. It is no shock to me that millions of people who voted for Mr. Trump did so because they are sick and tired of the economic, political and media status quo.

Working families watch as politicians get campaign financial support from billionaires and corporate interests — and then ignore the needs of ordinary Americans. Over the last 30 years, too many Americans were sold out by their corporate bosses. They work longer hours for lower wages as they see decent paying jobs go to China, Mexico or some other low-wage country. They are tired of having chief executives make 300 times what they do, while 52 percent of all new income goes to the top 1 percent. Many of their once beautiful rural towns have depopulated, their downtown stores are shuttered, and their kids are leaving home because there are no jobs — all while corporations suck the wealth out of their communities and stuff them into offshore accounts.

His prescription:

In the coming days, I will also provide a series of reforms to reinvigorate the Democratic Party. I believe strongly that the party must break loose from its corporate establishment ties and, once again, become a grass-roots party of working people, the elderly and the poor. We must open the doors of the party to welcome in the idealism and energy of young people and all Americans who are fighting for economic, social, racial and environmental justice.

I'm glad to see the leash is gone and no longer is he in debt to the principessa. It'll be interesting to see how far he will get with his ideas.

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One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will. To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--Tennyson

Although they may lie to us more. Almost all the elected Democrats have to go, along with almost all of the DNC. Won't happen. It needs to be destroyed before anything can be rebuilt.

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jamess's picture

In my Life -- Barclay James Harvest

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvQ6CWeF4FU&list=RDyvQ6CWeF4FU&index=1

... might be needing it again very soon here.

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Thank you jamess.

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riverlover's picture

Out of the ashes there arose a phoenix. From the flames. We who have seen any fire have seen the phoenix.

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

k9disc's picture

The Rust Belt is past. It's worthless. It's selling the region very, very short.

That area is the nation's Water Basin. 1/5 of the world's fresh water, right there, in one spot.

I believe the Rust Belt framing is not only about manufacturing, but it's a pejorative to make people think that the region is wasted and worthless. My people up there are being bankrupted and brutalized so we'll give up our water.

Michigan, in particular, is ground zero of our Domestic Colonial future. Across the nation, they (Republicans and Democrats) are going to sell our natural resources to the most connected bidders.

They will install a local strong man to keep the rabble down, bring in the shock troops and extract our vast natural resources just as fast as they can.

People who think we're looking at a neofeudal future are kidding themselves. The future is neocolonial, and it starts in the Great Lakes region.

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu