UK Election--A Possible Positive View

Two items from yesterday's UK elections that have the ability to really shake things up over there:

First, in Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) went from 35 seats to 48 seats in the 59 seat country. As pointed out in today's Evening Blues, the Scots have already started motion on a new independence resolution, and there is a very good chance this will succeed. The Scots in general are *not* in favor of Brexit, and now with the Conservative win making Brexit a certainty, Scotland has incentive to break off from the rest of the UK and save their economy. Conservative leader Boris Johnson is using Scottish fishing areas as a bribe to get more favorable treatment from the EU for Brexit (basically, giving the rights to fish in those areas to the EU, and taking them away from Scotland). If Scotland breaks off from the UK and remains in the EU, that will give Scots the right to continue fishing off their shores. (Fishing is big in the Scottish economy.)

Scottish Results

Second, in Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lost two seats, effectively handing a majority of seats to three other parties (Sinn Fein being the largest) who favor reunification of Northern Ireland with Ireland. Now that Conservatives have an vast majority, they will likely eject DUP from their alliance (DUP helped them achieve a majority previously).

Northern Ireland Results

We will see over the next year or so whether Scotland and Northern Ireland try to break away and what happens if they do try. It's at least within the realm of possibility that the UK will not include those two populations soon. However, I would not doubt that England/Wales will resort to drastic measures to make sure that does not happen.

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Honestly, I'd love to see the UK break apart peacefully. It would reduce their influence, which with the current Conservative government, would be very welcome.

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Advocating a break up of the US because of Trump.

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@davidgmillsatty

Advocating a break up of the UK because of Boris would be like advocating a break up of the US because of Trump.

capitalization adjusted for format change

apenultimate isn't advocating breaking up the UK; (s)he's predicting it. A prediction that is quite reasonable when one considers Scotland has resisted English hegemony and rule since long before the Tudors got onto the English Throne. The government and Crown of England have always viewed Scotland as problematic to them, and they would be correct to do so. The disagreement over the EU may well be enough to kick the continually-extant independence movement into high gear.....

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"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

TheOtherMaven's picture

@thanatokephaloides

Scotland and England were ever united at all was that the King of Scotland was first heir in line when the last Tudor (Elizabeth I) died. So in a sense it was Scotland that grabbed off England rather than the reverse - but they have regretted it ever since.

Or at least since the early 1700s, when some unwise colonial investments trashed the Scottish economy and allowed the English to get back on top.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

would be a non-starter after Brexit. It would require a hard border between England and Scotland for a start. A soft border with free passage and no customs controls would effectively leave England in the EU. The disruption would be unimaginable. New financial institutions would have to be created and disentangled from those of the (dis)United Kingdom. The problems associated with the Irish backstop would pale in comparison with a Scottish backstop.

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lotlizard's picture

Hard to see how a Scotland within the E.U. but whose currency was still tied to the Bank of England could possibly work.

Can Scotland do a Catalonia and hold a second independence referendum without central government approval?

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@lotlizard

Independent Scotland: join the euro or remain tied to sterling?

Hard to see how a Scotland within the E.U. but whose currency was still tied to the Bank of England could possibly work.

The Scots would solve their currency question handily, take it to the bank (!). Hell, with all the USA Dollars the place is awash in because of us North American Scots going back to the "auld countrie" to visit, Scotland could use that currency for awhile while figuring it out!

Can Scotland do a Catalonia and hold a second independence referendum without central government approval?

Count on it! The Scots will do it if they want, English opinion be damned!

As I said above, Scotland's always been trouble....

Wink

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"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

lotlizard's picture

Rallying Scotland’s anatine son and fabled financial genius to the Auld Country in her hour of need . . .

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I intend to talk politics with all the wait staff, and hope to pull the tour director off to the side, see what the public really wants.
It will be nice to get their news from local sources.
I can't wait!

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