Tulsi Ups and Downs: Late Update!!!

Late Breaking: 174 New Donors Away from 100,000!!!

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Well, Tulsi was getting 2%-3% in recent polls that don't qualify for the September debates, and she had moved up to 1% in mainstream media polls that do qualify--but, two recent mainstream polls are not good.

NBC News/Wall St. Journal had a national poll, and FOX had a South Carolina poll late in this past week where Tulsi polled at 0%. These, of course, are debate qualifying polls. So, despite the visits to SC and the billboards and everything, and despite her 3% polling in fellow-southern-state Texas, it seems there is little love for Tulsi in SC, which saddens me.

On the flip side, Tulsi is nearing the 100,000 mark in unique donors (she has to reach 130,000 by Aug. 28 to qualify for the Sept. and Oct. debates). I just received an email that she currently has 98,901, so she is 1,099 short of the weekend goal of 100,000. She will undoubtedly reach that goal by Monday at the latest.

Just a little projection here: At her current rate of unique donor gain, she will likely be at around 110,000 by the July 30/31 debates. Her previous debate saw her spike 12,000 new donors in a week, so assuming nothing disasterous, and assuming a similar spike, she is on track to reach the 130,000 unique donor goal by Aug. 28 as long as she can get 8,000 or so additional unique donors in the 2.5 weeks before that date.

But, the polling requirement might be the tough part. She has actually gained in the polls on average after the first debate, but she needs a similar or better gain in the polls after the second debate to make the cut.

In other news, I think Gravel made the stage for the second debate (July 30/31) as well. At least he now has 65,000 unique donors. If they allow him in, he may possibly endorse Tulsi at the debate, which would be quite the thing for an audience to see (someone endorsing someone else on stage). Just something to keep track of there. I'm not sure if there was a date cutoff for that goal, however.

Forward . . .

Edit to add: It looks like Tulsi's sister, Vrindavan, posted a Tweet late yesterday stating that she only had 800-some donors needed to reach the 100,000 mark:

Tulsi Sister Tweet

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Azazello's picture

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@Azazello

It looks like according to that page, Gravel WILL make the second debate. Let's see what he does there!

Yes, Tulsi reaching the donor threshold should be doable (although very tight). She is averaging about 500 new donors per day, between now and Aug. 28 that rate will give her 23,000 new donors, which will leave her 8,000 short. Her July 30/31 debate performance needs to persuade 8,000 new donors (above the average rate) to donate to her. She actually did accomplish that with her first debate (she gained about 8,500 above her normal average gain in the week following that debate).

Very tight, though!

If by chance Gravel does endorse her on stage, I could see several thousand of his supporters suddenly donating to her. Let's see what happens!

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Alligator Ed's picture

@apenultimate

In other news, I think Gravel made the stage for the second debate (July 30/31) as well. At least he now has 65,000 unique donors. If they allow him in, he may possibly endorse Tulsi at the debate, which would be quite the thing for an audience to see (someone endorsing someone else on stage).

This would be Elizabeth Warren turned on her head for not endorsing Bernie during the MA primary.

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Alligator Ed's picture

@gjohnsit When Ds do polling, you can be sure it's rigged. Look no further than 2016 when Bernie's numbers wilted like an Iceman in a Phoenix summer. Yeah, the the great, semi-immortal, incredibly omniscient Nate Silver had HRC with >90% chance of winning the week before the election. So, realistically, it won't surprise me when Tulsi gets shafted--in my mind (tiny as it is) the question is how many debates will Tulsi be permitted to appear in before her whole campaign goes the way of Bernie '16?

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Lookout's picture

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Unabashed Liberal's picture

MTP, pretty certain that it'll be TG, if any Dem, who runs as an Independent/Third Party candidate.

(Not that I would hold my breath, or anything. Smile )

Mollie

“Dogs have given us their absolute all. We are the center of their universe. We are the focus of their love and faith and trust. They serve us in return for scraps. It is without a doubt the best deal man has ever made.
~~Roger Caras

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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.

Alligator Ed's picture

@Unabashed Liberal In so doing, Tulsi will leave the D party with no semblance of sanity (save Bernie and Gravel). With Nervous Nancy pulling one way and the Squad pulling another way, the Ds big tent will come crashing down like an asteroid causing the fourth extinction. This extinction will be the D party, from whose ashes, a new political beast will arise.

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