The Trouble With Treasuries

It's necessary to understand the importance of the treasury market to the U.S. economy.
For instance, to the financial markets a treasury bond is the equivalent of cash. Think of that $20 bill in your pocket as twenty dollars in treasuries (but without any yields).
Another way to think of treasuries is the same as holding a share of stocks in the U.S. economy.
Finally, it's important to understand that the only thing backing any paper currency in the world is the sovereign debt of that nation, and it's ability to pay back that debt. In the U.S. that debt is issued in the form of treasuries. With that in mind, you should have an idea of why any problems in the treasury market are serious.

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Everywhere you turn, the biggest players in the $23.7 trillion US Treasuries market are in retreat.

From Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banks, where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt, most have now stepped away. And then of course there’s the Federal Reserve, which a few weeks ago upped the pace that it plans to offload Treasuries from its balance sheet to $60 billion a month.

If one or two of these usually steadfast sources of demand were bailing, the impact, while noticeable, would likely be little cause for alarm. But for every one of them, all at once, to pull back is an undeniable source of concern, especially coming on the heels of the unprecedented volatility, deteriorating liquidity and weak auctions of recent months.

Let's start with illiquidity. It's an intentionally confusing term that generally means that the price of an asset has diverged from it's fundamental demand. In this case, treasuries became vastly overvalued.

The Fed, unsurprisingly, represents the largest loss of demand. The central bank more than doubled it’s debt portfolio in the two years through early 2022, to in excess of $8 trillion.

The Federal Reserve printed more than $4 Trillion out of thin air to buy treasury bonds, in effect they monetized our national debt. Monetizing debt is a perfectly fine monetary policy if your objective is to cause inflation. This policy artificially inflated the value of Treasuries. So when the Fed stopped buying treasuries they discovered that no one wanted them.
Who do I mean by "no one"? That would be east Asia.

Selling of U.S. Treasury bonds is increasing worldwide. The amount already exceeded US$200 billion this year and major countries’ current U.S. Treasury holdings are close to the 2018 level. For example, the net selling by Japan and China, the two biggest holders, is US$69.7 billion and US$98.7 billion this year, respectively. That of South Korea is approximately US$18.9 billion.

According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, major countries’ holdings totaled US$3.9427 trillion at the end of July, the lowest since November 2018.

Japan and Korea have their own reasons for selling treasuries, but China's reason for selling is more clearly because of trade and political/military disputes with the U.S. China's treasury holding are now at their lowest level since May 2010.
Probably the biggest factor in the lack of treasury buyers is, ironically, the surging U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve is virtually alone in dramatically raising interest rates, which has caused the dollar to rise in value against almost every other nation. If central banks in other countries buy our treasuries, it'll cause their currencies to fall even faster. This is the primary reason why Japan isn't buying.

Hedging costs have surged in tandem with the dollar, which has climbed more than 25% this year versus the yen, the most in Bloomberg data going back to 1972.

As the Fed has continued to boost rates to tame inflation in excess of 8%, Japan in September intervened to support its currency for the first time since 1998, raising speculation the country may need to actually start selling its hoard of Treasuries to further prop up the yen.

And it’s not just Japan. Countries around the world have been running down their foreign-exchange reserves to defend their currencies against the surging dollar in recent months.

Europe is in even worse shape than Japan. Their ageing population, and the lack of consumer demand that this implies, prevents them from raising interest rates to defend their currency. Otherwise the rising rates will cause a recession. However, inflation is causing chaos in their economy.

Energy prices, which rose at an annual rate of 40.8 percent in the eurozone in September, were the main contributor to the accelerating inflation, driven higher by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Food prices rose 11.8 percent in September, from 10.6 percent in August.

Of the 19 eurozone countries, 10 recorded double-digit overall inflation, including the largest economy, Germany, which released its own inflation result the day before — 10.9 percent. That was the highest rate of inflation that Germany had seen since 1951, well before the reunification of the former East and West...Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia all registered inflation rates above 22 percent...The Netherlands, at 17.1 percent in September, up from below 14 percent the previous month, and Slovakia, at 13.6 percent, were also in the unfortunate group of nations with higher-than-average rates.

With inflation running between 6% and 22%, while European bond yields at maybe 1%, this is not sustainable. On the other hand, the lack of energy in countries like Germany, is causing entire industries to shut down, which appears to be a bad time to hike interest rates.
Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Another typical major buyer of treasuries is commercial banks, but lately they haven't stepped up either.

In the second quarter, banks purchased the least amount of Treasuries since the final three months of 2020, Barry wrote in a report last month.

“The drop in bank demand has been stunning,” he noted. “As deposit growth has slowed sharply, this has reduced bank demand for Treasuries, particularly as the duration of their assets have extended sharply this year.”

The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Total Return Index has lost about 13% this year, almost four times as much as in 2009, the worst full year result on record for the gauge since its 1973 inception.

So what does this all mean? Some are pointing towards the world's reserve currency before the U.S. dollar achieved global hegemony - the U.K. Pound.

Cabana argues that the danger of a US Treasury market “breakdown” has grown due to a “demand vacuum” and subsequent deterioration in liquidity, with order book depth across two year notes at the lowest level since March 2020 (we’re not going to patronise anyone by explaining the significance of that month)...Policy makers assume the UST market will always be liquid, it won’t; liquidity is a privilege, not a right.

This dynamic leaves the US bond market vulnerable to a “market functioning breakdown” similar to what the UK suffered this week, he argues.

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that would string along foreign investors long enough for us to actualize some pipe dream plot to rule the world through a magical world wide US Dollar Digital Currency, or perhaps handing over our thoroughly ruined global economy through a partnership with WEF mavens and their long planned Great Reset scam.

Time to either pay the piper or join the third world as a has-been Empire. That wouldn’t be as difficult for me to accept an off-ramp from the now clearly flailing US proxy war in Ukraine, complete with mushrooms sprouting on the horizon. I don’t see much of a future in that exit strategy.

Perhaps my pessimism is getting the better of my meager optimism. We only need to find a gullible new buyer with north of 25T$ to roll over our treasury obligations. That shouldn’t be so difficult. /s

Anybody have a better idea?

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11 users have voted.

Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will somehow work for the benefit of all."
- John Maynard Keynes

@ovals49
What other choice does the rest of the world have?
China? Their currency doesn't float and they have serious demographic and environmental problems.
Europe? Their demographic problems are so serious that some cities and regions in Italy are willing to pay you to move there. And right now they fiscal and monetary situation is horrendous.
Japan? The worst demographic problems on the planet.
Britain? They almost had a currency/sovereign debt meltdown this past month.
Latin America? A long history of reasons why not to trust them.

Ironically, Russia has probably the best fiscal and trade surplus situation of any major nation in the world. That's probably a big reason why we are trying to crush their economy right now. You couldn't invest in Russia now even if you wanted to.

There is precious metals. But the market is so tiny compared to the global debt markets that if even 1% of the world's money tried to get into PMs the market would probably freeze and/or the governments would make it illegal.

That leaves the U.S. as the cleanest dirty shirt.

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10 users have voted.

@gjohnsit

Ironically, Russia has probably the best fiscal and trade surplus situation of any major nation in the world. That's probably a big reason why we are trying to crush their economy right now. You couldn't invest in Russia now even if you wanted to.

My savings will likely wither in the bank due to rampant inflation. I couldn’t find any publicly traded companies that were both reliably profitable and ethical. I have to admit I’m pretty fussy, and I also never expected to live high on the hog or to hob-knob with the rich and famous.

Our government ought to ask for its money back from Rand think tank. Russia looks like the main beneficiary from the ill advised Russian sanctions they reccomended. The winner-loser list on the sanctions makes it look like the collective West either has a financial death wish or is clearing the deck for Klaus and the trans human horde to remake our world.

I would prefer living in a country that didn’t think itself exceptional and entitled to rule by threat and force of arms. I don’t have the energy to go ex-pat at my age, and this is the only place that feels like home, for better or for worse.

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13 users have voted.

Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will somehow work for the benefit of all."
- John Maynard Keynes

snoopydawg's picture

You weren’t supposed to see that

I’m going to tell you a quick story in the order in which it happened. You were there. You will be familiar with the sequence of these events. But you may not have reached the shocking conclusion that I have. At least not yet. Wait for it…
Our story begins in 2019…
It was the best of times, it was the best of times. The tail end of a decade of uninterrupted asset price appreciation for the top decile of American households who own 89% of the US stock market and 70% of all of the wealth. Not only did they ride this wave higher, they even figured out a way to have their cake and eat it too – a way to not even have to sell any of their assets to maintain the costs of a top ten-percenter lifestyle. Securities based lending. A silver bullet.
The banks were more than happy to arrange a loan against any stock, bond or building in their clients’ portfolios. And why not? This way, no one had to sell and pay taxes while the money under management remained sticky and eligible for fees forever. You could be rich, stay rich, borrow at will, never come out of pocket, never give up your piece of the pie and yet still be able to pay for whatever you wanted. Clients loved it, banks loved it, financial advisors and fund managers loved it.
It was a win-win engineered by the cleverest of the clever on Wall Street and a decade of ultra-low interest rates courtesy of the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world. Stock market volatility was minimal, taxes were low and borrowing costs were so slight they may as well have not even existed. Never before was it so easy to finance, accumulate and maintain a portfolio of real and financial assets – from private real estate to startup shares to public stocks to fixed income of every sort and stripe. The upper class was floating away on an endless river of cashflows and capital gains. Meanwhile, prices and costs in the real economy barely budged. Income and wealth inequality soared but it was hard to say the “winners” were directly hurting anyone or causing any harm to any other group. It’s just that they were noticeably pulling ahead of everyone else at faster rates. But everyone was advancing to some degree, so, whatever. Life went on.
So long as inflation remained in check, the Fed could more or less manage the stock market with occasional quarter-point rate hikes or rate cuts and a smattering of speeches here and there.
And it worked beautifully – here are the annual inflation rates (as measured by CPI) for the years leading up to this ecstatic moment in the history of American-style capitalism:

2015: .12%
2016: 1.26%
2017: 2.13%
2018: 2.44%
2019: 1.81%

Most economic stuff goes over my head, but I thought this makes sense.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

earthling1's picture

@snoopydawg
the CPI books have been cooked for a while now.
Those rates are not trustworthy.

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4 users have voted.

Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

ggersh's picture

@earthling1 "voodoo economics" and turned it into reality.

https://nypost.com/2019/05/15/why-former-fed-chair-alan-greenspan-is-wro...

Here are three tricks I explained in that column:

Hedonics, which claims something can go up in price and not be inflationary if the quality of the product improves. The trouble is, the price is still higher. People still have to pay more.

Geometric weighting
, which says that if something goes up too much in price, people will switch to a cheaper alternative.

Owner equivalent rent
, which is a cute way that the government keeps the cost of homes lower than they actually are.

Instead of determining that a house’s price actually rose, which you do by looking at comparable listings of houses that sold, the government calculates what it would cost for you to rent your own home.

These three tricks are all nonsense intended to make inflation seem less troublesome than it actually is. And the government pulls these magic tricks because, when inflation is kept low, Washington has to pay less in cost-of-living adjustments on things like Social Security.

And as for the treasuries/debt, if anyone thinks that the $31tril+ deficit will ever be
payed back, come on over and lets play us some poker

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5 users have voted.

I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

@ggersh

COLA has not kept up with inflation for ever. Some administrations just ignored it (Obama and
Bush II) I think. The inflationary gap between social security benefits will doubtfully ever catch
up to the real cost of living.

The 60', 70's and 80's dollar values paid into the FICA funds are now paying out at about 30% of
their original value (napkin scribbling math). So a 5% bump up here and there means little.

What a scam.

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6 users have voted.
ggersh's picture

@QMS

COLA has not kept up with inflation for ever.

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5 users have voted.

I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

The Liberal Moonbat's picture

What connection is being drawn, and what would it mean for us?

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4 users have voted.

In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!