Some Encouragement for Tomorrow - "Here Comes Bernie!"
Submitted by Gerrit on Mon, 03/14/2016 - 11:40am
On the night of the Iowa primary back some 1,000 or so years ago, over at TYT, Cenk lost his mind repeatedly as Bernie closed the gap. He would suddenly holler, with great joy, "Here Comes Bernie!" Five Thirty Eight ate some humble pie in Michigan last week and here we are again. The predictions at 538 are grim, all based on polling aggregates. Yet...check out this extract from an article at HuffPo
Now Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, having been among the first -- days before Michigan -- to suggest that that state's primary could be far closer than anticipated, is telling the media that Clinton may well lose Ohio, Missouri,and Illinois. Yet Nate Silver and his crew still show Clinton beating Sanders in those states with odds of (respectively) 98%, 80% and 95%. What does Mook know -- and what does the Sanders campaign know -- that Silver and Five Thirty Eight do not? Are we headed for another Super Tuesday in which the pundits, beforehand, suggest that Sanders has no shot to do well, only to reveal, thereafter, that all the polling was "wrong" and in fact the information coming out of both the Clinton and Sanders campaigns was correct?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/more-shocking-upsets-in-s_b_...
Prepare to be surprised by joy 
Start practicing dance moves. "Tomorrow, tomorrow, is only a day awaaaaaaaaaay!"
Go Bernie! Go Badger! Go Hufflepuff!
Comments
Here's hoping. I did my part
by phone banking this weekend. Hope he pulls it out.
Don't believe everything you think.
Nate's methodology has been off more than once already
As always with Bernie, high turnout means a win. I've already put an hour and a half phonebanking in this morning. Hoping to hit six hours for the day.
“I'll show you politics in America. Here it is, right here. 'I think the puppet on the right shares my beliefs.' 'I think the puppet on the left is more to my liking.' 'Hey, wait a minute, there's one guy holding out both puppets!'”- Bill Hicks
Its largely due to outdated polling methodology
Nate bases his work on poll data, but he can't control poll data. Polling companies call people mostly on landlines. Now, who is going to 1. have a landline? and 2. Answer it if its an unknown number?
If you said your Grandma, you are correct.
Polling data is scewed heavily to older Americans, and even within that group to more conservative older Americans. My parents ditched their landline, and are into computers (although they are still RWNJs) but imagine the people who are taking these calls.
I know they have expanded somewhat into cellphone polling - but again - do you answer strange numbers?
So, I think the more we see young voter turnout, the more off the polls are going to continue to be.
Agreed and thanks, Haikukitty. I checked the realclearpolitics
poll averages this morning and it's looking good in IL, OH, and MO, NC looks like he might lose with a small margin, but FL looks a goner - 65-35ish. Anything better would be a victory. Do you see things similarly for tomorrow?
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
I'm struggling to keep my hopes out of it
But I still think we could win 3, and I really hope so, but I'm pretty sure we can count on 1, at the least.
I can't quite tell if my 3 wins are just wishful thinking or if there really is a chance the polls are off - especially if we can get high turnout among younger voters again.
Should be interesting...
Oh, and yeah - Florida. I expect that's a fairly big loss, and like you said - if we managed to keep it in 20 points it would be a miracle. Floida is always a pain in everyone's butt by nature.
Or maybe me...
I think it was the 2008 cycle, I was getting polled all the time. I'm a registered green in a rural area of a swing state with a land line, so I think I pushed lots of demographic buttons. I was getting polled 3-4 times per week by different outfits. I got so that I recognized PPP's calling number (always took their calls). If you wonder why the polling was off that year, because 1% of it was me!
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Given that Nate bases his work on poll data,
his results are inherently static -- they don't reflect even the possibility of dynamics. (It's conceivable that he could attempt time-series analysis, but as far as I know he does not, and it would be foolish to try.)
That's fine as far as it goes, but it means that neither he nor anybody at his company should ever indulge in political analysis, because political analysis is not what they do. Silver's results are semantics-free -- the data could come from anywhere and represent anything, and the predictions would be exactly the same.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
what I can tell you about polling
more and more, the better pollsters are using 3 ways of doing this sort of thing
1. Land lines - the traditional way
2. Cell phones - yes, it's true!
3. Online - because they have access to demographic info for email addresses
However....!!! They seem to be doing less polling now and I believe they're missing trends. If they poll 2 weeks apart and then the final one 2 days before the primary they miss what's going on. They can think the last poll is accurate but if they were polling every day they'd know that the numbers were still in flux.
Too many times this year we've asked "why isn't there more polling?" There really should be, since I could do the crosstab work, or if someone else did it that would mean they couldn't do the business crosstabs and then I could do those!
PPP Poll
The latest PPP Poll indicates the Midwestern states are too close to call. I predict Bernie wins because he's got the momentum.
OH Clinton 46-41
IL Clinton 48-45
MO Sanders 47-46
Hillary will win the last two southern states, Florida and North Carolina. After tomorrow, Bernie will start catching up in the delegate count.
"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."
Thanks, RM, for the PPP numbers. If the MI pattern holds,
Bernie should gain enough today and overnight that he would win IL, OH, and MO. If he wins three, keeps NC close and FL beats expectations, it sets him up for the long run. That's my upper range hopes for tomorrow, but I'd be disappointed if he loses any of the three.
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Not even a 5 pt lead, I was wrong--
a 4-pt lead! So its 4 pts in one state and w/in margin of error for other two, and they're counting it as 80%, 90% chance?
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Awesome!
I'm doing a happy dance reminding myself Bernie Sanders has only been campaigning for about 10 months, against the biggest, most well funded political machine in the country today, with the most entrenched ( scared to do otherwise!) endorsements from Democrats who want to keep their jobs, their access to power, money, and the status quo.
DAMN - I'm happy, so damn proud of and grateful for Bernie and Jane Sanders. They're doing this for the good of the country and the people, not for personal power or monetary gain. Haven't been this hopeful since RFK, 1968.
Fingers crossed, and prayers for this one too!
President Sanders: an idea whose time has come
OK, so in those states
the widest margin is 5% pts. It goes from Hillary up 5 to Bernie up 2.
So where the hell are the 80% and 90% figures coming from?
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
They come from the confidence intervals associated
with the aggregated statistics.
People tend to seriously abuse the concept of "margin of error". If I present you a statistical result -- for example, that HRC will receive 53%, with a "margin of error" of 5 percentage points, it means (approximately) that there is a 95% chance that HRC will receive between 48% and 58% of the vote, and only 2.5% chance that she will receive less than 48% of the vote.
Three important things to understand:
A. The choice of 95% as the magic number is wholly arbitrary, and universally understood. If statisticians and scientists had, for whatever reason, decided that the confidence defining the margin of error should be 99%, then the reported margins of error on these polls would be a lot bigger. If they had decided on 90%, the margins of error would be smaller.
B. The margins of error themselves have margins of error, an interesting bit of meta that nobody ever addresses.
C. The margins of error assume that the model parameters are valid. For example, that the likely voter model actually predicts likely voters.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Mook's Motive for saying anything?
Why would Mook say anything? Seems suspicious to me. Is he setting it up so they can GUSH ( that open mouthed OH I AM SO SURPRISED SQUAWK, SQUAWK She does pretending to recognize someone)and act suprised - lowering expectations purposely?
Naw, don't trust a word, a squawk that comes out of that campaign.
I want them to be GONE. BE GONE. Anybody got a magic wand handy?
President Sanders: an idea whose time has come
I've never read the Art of War, but I hope it makes
clear that it is always a fool's game to attach any meaning to the public statements of one's enemies.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
He didn't touch on propaganda of the enemy much.
It was pretty much assumed at the time that was written that anything the enemy said was full of crap.
However, when talking about those that showed up to spy on YOU...
It is essential to seek out enemy agents who have come to conduct espionage against you and to bribe them to serve you. Give them instructions and care for them. Thus doubled agents are recruited and used
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
I still can't make myself believe that he can pull off
the three-state upset.
And even if he does, we all know the arguments with which Team HRC will respond: Yeah, but he still can't win the nomination, because even if he wins all the remaining states by the same margin he won Ohio, he won't catch up in the delegate count.
Some of them are so stupid that they believe this to be an irrefutable statement.
The rest are so disingenuous that they will abuse such community as "we" offer them, out of shared interest in the eventual November electoral results, and pretend to believe that Sanders cannot defeat HRC, in the hopes of making their fantasy reality. Such people are wicked enemies of democracy. Anybody whose political strategy is founded upon undercutting voters' hopes so as to depress turnout is an enemy of democracy.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
I use the Clinton campaigns comments
to gauge what will happen. It's the only time they are honest, and let's just say, no one can poll like them. They are the best, not 538.
Tomorrow will be another nerving day... go Bernie!
Progressive to the bone.