Socialists win in Ecuador

It wasn't a landslide, but it's still a decisive victory for the leftist candidate over the neoliberal one.

Leftist economist Andres Arauz claimed "a resounding victory" as exit polls predicted he would face right-wing ex-banker Guillermo Lasso in a runoff after polls closed Sunday in Ecuador's general election.
The vote was marred by long lines of people waiting to cast ballots as coronavirus restrictions caused chaos.

Two exit polls showed Arauz had topped the vote with 34.9 to 36.2 percent ahead of Lasso on 21 to 21.7 percent.

To win outright, a candidate needs 50 percent plus one vote or 40 percent and a 10-point lead over the nearest rival.

this is excellent news, although the presidential election will still go to a runoff in April.

update: it appears that Lasso, the neoliberal banker candidate, may not even make the runoff. Instead Perez, the indigenous environmentalist candidate, has tied and may even pass Lasso.

So I didn't want to stop there. I wanted to see how the American media was going to portray this.
Here are a few examples.

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thinks that everything is solely about them. And what they call their "interests."

For those of us whose interest is in a better world for all of us, we can celebrate this good news from Ecuador.

Thanks for your coverage, gjohnsit

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NYCVG

@NYCVG the same way Britain used to view India… As a colony.
So when they do something that is in their own interests, it's naturally not in our interests. Here's one of the articles that I list above:

Alejandro Werner, the top International Monetary Fund (IMF) official in charge of Latin American affairs, did not go so far as to predict a rise of the left in Latin America when I interviewed him recently. But he told me that the upcoming election cycle is creating political “uncertainty” in the region, which could inhibit private investments and slow growth.

Other regional watchers are more explicit. They say that the ongoing economic recession because of the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed millions of people into poverty. That, in turn, will translate into an anti-establishment sentiment that will hurt ruling centrist and right-of-center parties in several countries.

Latin America’s economy fell by an average of 8.1 percent last year, more than that of any other region in the world. It is projected to grow by only 3.6 percent this year, according to the IMF.

Daniel Kerner, head of the Latin American department of Eurasia Group, a New York-based political-risk consulting firm, says the current political climate in Chile, Peru and Ecuador will help anti-establishment candidates.

“Since there was a kind of shift to the right in recent years, we may now see voters shifting to the left,” Kerner told me.

Likewise, Marta Lagos, head of the Santiago, Chile-based Latinobarómetro polling firm, told me that this year’s elections will be fertile ground for “populist, anti-establishment candidates.”

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lotlizard's picture

@gjohnsit  
of the how and why. Despite the Monroe Doctrine, the U.S. was unable to prevent European imperial-colonial powers from establishing and, for many human lifetimes, keeping hold of British Honduras (now Belize), British Guiana (now Guyana), Dutch Guiana (now Surinam), and French Guiana (to this day, still officially claimed to be an integral part of France!).

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Raggedy Ann's picture

The Ecuadorian leftists are gonna ruin Jomentia's plans for them! Ensure the neoliberal wins in April! Oh, noes! Shok

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

I am so happy for that country!
The way it was going on my first trip there, middle/lower class raved about Socialism, and the tour director, a man of at least some wealth, railed against it. Same thing on my second trip, except the wealthier people were extremely smug about their position in society. Nothing brings out ass holishness like money in an investment account!

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Columbia. And not just a little bit, not just subtly, not allegedly, but blatantly.

The American embassy in Bogotá has warned Colombian politicians to “avoid getting involved” in the US election, amid a growing row over allegations that far-right lawmakers from the South American country are campaigning in support of Donald Trump.

At least three senior Colombian politicians have been accused of acting as Trump surrogates in Florida, a pivotal battleground state which has been flooded with political advertising and fake news aimed at Latino voters.

Senators María Fernanda Cabal and Carlos Felipe Mejía, and congressman Juan David Vélez, all members of the hard-right ruling Democratic Centre party, have endorsed Trump and regularly promote him on Twitter.

Francisco Santos, Colombia’s ambassador to the United States, has also been accused by opposition lawmakers of privately coordinating with the Trump campaign. Santos did not respond to requests for comment.

On Monday, the US ambassador, Philip S Goldberg, took the unusual step of issuing a warning to Colombian lawmakers.

so what about that hard right ruling party in Columbia? What's their story?

The apparent misrule of Colombia’s President Ivan Duque has further escalated violence, according to the war crimes tribunal, and created the “perfect storm” for “a river of blood,” a conflict analyst said Tuesday.

The Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP) issued an alert in which it said to have registered 14 combat situations, 14 assassinations of and 13 death threats against human rights defenders or community leaders, six massacres and the assassination of five demobilized FARC guerrillas.

The report was released hours after the death of Defense Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo, whose 2019 appointment was succeeded by a surge in massacres and the persistent assassinations of social leaders and former rebels taking part in the peace process.

According to the JEP, the beginning of this year again saw a rise in massacres. One social leader is allegedly assassinated every 41 hours and every five days a former FARC guerrilla suffers the same fate.

Ah yes. Rivers of blood. That sounds like the kind of guys that we usually call allies in Latin America.

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vtcc73's picture

in the media up north, huh? OOOO! "political instability", AAAHHHH!!! "Socialism".... "Biden's plans for the region"? What the sweet fuck? Biden's plans won't be any different than any other president's plans have been since the Monroe Doctrine got pulled out of James' tightly puckered ass. How about trying exploit, interfere, and plunder for more accuracy with our buzzwords. And maybe the native's aren't playing the game the way we want them to. Boo fuckin' hoo.

The people of Ecuador could teach the US far more about democracy, capitalism, activism, civic spirit, entrepreneurship, very outspoken, and so much more than they could learn from the US. There are plenty of big problems here but things like this election are showing that a small country of about 17.5 million people, many poor and poorly educated, are fully capable of self determination and self government. They are deadly serious about building a great place to live for everyone and not rolling over for big money interests or the US.

Everyone between 18 and 65 plus those over 65 who choose to, some 16-18 year old kids, as well as anybody who has legally lived here 5 years and chose to went to the polls today. Some will have walked for as many as a couple of days for the privilege and obligation. The polls closed at 7:00 but by 8:00 there was enough hard evidence to declare that a runoff on April 11th would be required as it has been the past many elections.

The preliminary results: Arauz 35-36%, Lasso 21-22%, Yaku 16-17%, and Hervas 13%. Their leanings: Left, neoliberal & serial bankster, indigenous environmentalist, who cares. We'll have more accurate numbers soon but that is unlikely to change the result of a runoff between Arauz and Lasso. The legislature mix is going to be the important result in the near term. Those seats will determine how effectively the president will be able to lead. The numbers will probably tell the tale of what sort of coalition might emerge to win the runoff and then govern in very difficult circumstances.

The first world might like to toss the scary socialist label about freely but it doesn't come close to describing the people here. Hell, yes, they care about social living but are fierce, innovative entrepreneurs. The sense of family goes beyond blood to neighborhood and beyond. Most couldn't care less about religion, race, or any of the other dividers we're used to to the point of not even realizing how toxic that thinking is in the US. People find ways to get along, live happy, and just get by any way they can think of. They don't usually allow circumstances determine their happiness or sense of self worth.

And, of course, there are a bunch who would fit into the disfunction up north quite well. Thankfully they're a minority. Plus only ~22% bought into the con of a bankster with a history of fraud. That's far better than almost 50% of the electorate who couldn't see a fraud and conman after four years of sucking his....exhaust.

It's really hard to describe what I've come to know about Ecuadorians in four short years, three living here. Political instability as in that's how democracy works, messy as fuck and quarrelsome, is accurate enough. Socialist as in "we are all together in this life, let's make the best of it" is about right too. This is a social democracy in the European sense that is still trying to get past a long nasty history of colonialism that lingers. And as far as giving a hoot about what the US or Biden wants, thinks, or does? Most will just point to the last four years and look painfully sad and confused. It's like the big brother you looked up to all your life until his slow motion train wreck of a crack addiction made him its bitch. Now, he's finally strung together 3 hours sober and telling you what a big mess your life is. That look.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

snoopydawg's picture

@vtcc73

Biden's plans won't be any different than any other president's plans have been since the Monroe Doctrine got pulled out of James' tightly puckered ass.

I have looked up the Monroe doctrine and have only learned our talking points on it. I know Monroe did the deed, but not the backstory.

Thanks.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

@snoopydawg
are you asking for a detailed description of Monroe's tightly puckered ass in the method in which he pulled is doctrine out? Wink

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vtcc73's picture

@snoopydawg Cartoons of the era, 1820s, show the Caribean, Latin America, and South America as an American lake and America's bitch. The Western Hemisphere was essentially claimed as under the protection and influence of the US. European powers were being warned away. The history of the big majority of US lead, supported, and/or influenced government overthrows are in the western hemisphere. The neoliberal destruction of economies and governments in South America in the 1990s was a US op enabled by the World Bank and IMF, US chartered entities.

Ecuador only dug itself out of depression by defaulting, going to the US dollar as its currency, and tossing out the US. Correa had a big part in that success for Ecuador. His VP, now soon to be former president Morreno, reversed course as soon as he took office in 2017. Lately he's been snuggling up with Pence and gotten fast tracked IMF and World Bank loans (with real people economy crushing conditions) that signal round two if this election goes to Lasso. The news of Lasso's failure wasn't even out when the US press is telling us how scary all this is. We've been conditioned as Americans to fervently believe we have a right to choose how Latin America governs itself. That's James' doing.

The idea that the US has any say in Ecuador or the rest of Latin America is firmly based on the Monroe Doctrine.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

janis b's picture

@vtcc73

That’s quite a fevered rant. I hope you’ll keep us informed of the coalition possibilities and how you anticipate them working.

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vtcc73's picture

@janis b With something like ~40 lists (parties) a fella can't tell the players without a scorecard. Like in politics everywhere there are what seem to be natural allies that can't get past old injuries and hurt feelings. Then there are deals to be made and betrayals yet to come. I can't pretend to understand what's possible.

Here's an opinion piece from Thursday with hints of the intrigue: Leftists see Ecuador’s Sunday election as decisive in reshaping the geopolitical map of Latin America

Just because I like Robert's writing and life perspective I'll offer the following. It was a nice read to start my morning yesterday. A Letter to My Sister

It's so refreshing that the election season is only permitted for two weeks here. I can deal with than pretty well. Even though there will be a repeat in late March.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

janis b's picture

@vtcc73

would make an ideal coalition, or at least as ideal as politics permits. Hopefully certain intentions will prevail.

Limiting campaigning time and expense would make a huge difference in America.

That was a very beautiful letter.

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wendy davis's picture

@vtcc73

indeed. and the art work? magnificent!

now i just looked at around for more on the election, including telesur english, mision verdad english, but when i got to the orinoco tribune, this stopped me short. it's long, by a gringo i haven't always cared for, but see if you believe he makes the case he claims. imo, he does, and with documentation.

How Ecuador’s US-backed, Coup-Supporting ‘Ecosocialist’ Candidate Aids the Right-Wing’, February 7, 2021 Ben Norton, orinocotribune.com

Ecuador’s third-place presidential candidate Yaku Pérez and his US-backed party Pachakutik supported coups in Bolivia, Brazil, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. His supposedly “left-wing” environmentalist campaign is being promoted by right-wing corporate lobbyists.

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vtcc73's picture

@wendy davis if there is any validity to this or have any knowledge of such accusations being made here.

There was talk of Arauz and Yaku joining forces early in the process to crush Lasso. Together they were seen as unstoppable. The differences that prevented the alliance aren't completely clear in my memory. I seem to have read there were several little things among Yaku's followers that made it impossible. None of them that I remember was an incompatibility between the two candidates or a rift based on ego. There was a lot of intrigue in CNE, the body charged with certifying lists (parties) and candidates. Many of the decisions seemed political with thin legal basis and/or completely arbitrary. The charges of the right packing CNE that are surfacing make sense on that level though I have seen nothing in print of public charges here that can't also be chalked up to sour grapes. The effect was to ban several lists and candidates and force the reorganization of other lists. Strange that all of the adverse decisions happened to discomfit Correistas. I do remember CNE decisions being a factor in Arauz and Yaku going separate ways.

Yaku was effective as Prefect in Cuenca. The city mayor and he worked well together during the COVID emergency declaration and six months of heavy restrictions. They took some severe hits from business as would be expected. The long delayed tram, Tranvia, has gone shockingly well to the considerable dismay of bus owners and several loudmouth expats. The referendum in Azuay Province, Cuenca and surroundings, banning large scale mining passed with 80% of the vote. Yaku was a lead proponent before resigning as Prefect to stand for president. The only local negatives I've heard about him are from his natural opponents on environmental, indigenous, and big business interests.

It's always possible that the claims in your article are a disinformation campaign. The simpler explanation that any "truth" will be complicated and elusive. As a presidential candidate he's probably had to talk with right wing opponents that the purists hate as much as those wrecking the environment. Unless you're trump, a politician doesn't get into offic without at least listening and being cordial with the opposition. Or it could be true and Yaku is a big money backed mole intending to pull a Morreno. Who knows? For what it's worth I'd go with someone settling a slight. It's a data point waiting for further information to evaluate validity.

Here is the latest on the election from this morning: https://cuencahighlife.com/presidential-race-headed-to-an-april-11-runoff-with-arauz-facing-either-perez-or-lasso/

All of the claims of politicized decisions of the CNE seem to have been for naught. But what surprises me most is the lack of whining trumpistas in the comments. It's still early.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

wendy davis's picture

@vtcc73

i'd thought he'd documented it well, although i don't know spanish, but i assume you do?

ben norton of the grayzone would hardly have a dog in this fight, though. and i'll assume you'd read it all. i was rather shocked, to say the truth.

'facing either perez or lasso in the april run-offs', lol. time MAY tell, eh?

best to you,
wd

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snoopydawg's picture

@janis b

ass of James. But this answers my inquiry.

The Western Hemisphere was essentially claimed as under the protection and influence of the US. European powers were being warned away. The history of the big majority of US lead, supported, and/or influenced government overthrows are in the western hemisphere. The neoliberal destruction of economies and governments in South America in the 1990s was a US op enabled by the World Bank and IMF, US chartered entities.

Was that before or after Monroe's tenure? If after then what did he pull out? Love this metaphor.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

vtcc73's picture

@snoopydawg @snoopydawg were the fledgling countries to do with as the pleased. It was a statement against colonialism while at the same time a declaration that this was our territory to use as we wish. So typical of the US it denounced colonialism while claiming the right to determine what happens in the western hemisphere as our right. Colonialism by any other name without outright occupation of territory and all of the accompanying messiness. We could claim the high ground but be on the down low in reality.

I’d love to say all of this was Monroe’s brilliance but it was only a twist in an old and very successful British colonial technique of conquering territory. It’s still used today by the US but was first used by Thomas Jefferson himself.

Following the Lewis and Clark expedition Clark became the head of Indian affairs. His most important job was managing industries. Industries would be better understood as trading posts. Sell useful stuff like metal tools, seeds, grain, and modern products to farm the land at high prices and easy credit. Build up a huge debt that could have never been paid back in hard currency. When the debtor can’t pay the lender agrees to take land in exchange. A couple decades saw the land between the Appalachians and the Mississippi River go to white settlers and native Americans get pushed west into the Louisiana Purchase where they were finished off by the turn of the 20th century. Very effective.

The 20th saw some of the same ending with the 1990s in South America. The IMF and World Bank became tools of raw material grabs and political change through the same methods. What more can we ask than to steal raw materials for far below their value and get rid of governments we oppose ideologically or only need a compliant puppet.

Charmers Johnson wrote the first book of what would be called the Blowback trilogy in 1999, I think. He is thought by some to have more or less predicted 9/11 in Blowback. The two that followed though are more important works as they explain and quantity the US empire militarily and economically through the 2000s. I knew the military side quite well but was shocked by how much more effective the economic tools of empire were. That’s where the connection to Jefferson and industries first came to me. Nothing quite like progress is there?

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

snoopydawg's picture

@vtcc73

I may have known this once, but I sure don’t remember it now. Guess I can do my own digging for stuff I don’t know. Except how do I know what I don’t know?

See how often we use the know word as it’s written, but said as the no itself does. Yeah I’m stoned but it’s still interesting.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

@vtcc73 because it's looking like Perez is going to be in the runoff and not Lasso.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecuador-election/arauz-advances-to-ec...

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@gjohnsit Which of the two ( Lasso or Perez ) will start with their Juan Guaido impersonation?

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vtcc73's picture

@gjohnsit In many ways I lean towards Yaku as the more likely genuine leader. The indigenous movement has organized well and seems to have become a real power. He is a charismatic leader and is obviously pretty sharp. I don’t know if either has what it takes to navigate the hazards of running this government in these tough times. Both will face a unified front of opposition from monied interests.

All of those words is my way of saying that I don’t know enough about either of Yaku or Arauz to be comfortable saying which would be better. I only hope this is the choice that presents itself. These two are the only ones that I have any doubt are not only in this for what they can grab. It looks like I need to do some research. I have well informed long term residents/citizens who support one or the other to ask.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

Lookout's picture

@gjohnsit

Ecuador’s third-place presidential candidate Yaku Pérez and his US-backed party Pachakutik supported coups in Bolivia, Brazil, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. His supposedly “left-wing” environmentalist campaign is being promoted by right-wing corporate lobbyists.
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/06/yaku-perez-pachakutik-ecuador-us-coup/

Plus other articles...
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/06/ecuador-election-citizens-revolution/
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/03/ecuador-election-exit-polls-cedatos-l...
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/03/ecuador-guayaquil-citizens-revolution...

I think Ben lives in Nicaragua, and is currently in Ecuador.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

wendy davis's picture

@Lookout

journalist, much like Zeese (RIP) and flowers, abby martin eva barlett, raul diego (iirc) and goes where he thinks he can commit journalism by digging beneath the surface. his home website says:

https://bennorton.com/

Ben has reported from numerous countries, including Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Honduras, Colombia, and more.

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vtcc73's picture

@Lookout that I've had with Wendy upthread. If not you can see what I had to say which was not much of substance. This was the first I've heard these accusations.

Today I spoke with two longtime resident expats about Yaku. One is a citizen and I don't know about the other. When I asked about the accusations both expressed serious doubt there is anything to the claims. One read the link Wendy offered and replied, "It is absurd. But it must be true. It is on the internet." An opinion, no more. The other person was no less certain the claims are not reliable and make zero sense. I agree that the story makes no sense without further evidence. For me, I can't believe if there is something this powerful to use against Yaku that it isn't being screamed to the heavens. The concern trolling and mud coming from the US is building. I read repeats of crap spewed by former US investment bankers and government trolls in The Guardian today too. If there's something there it will surface everywhere like turds in a pool. Still, it's data for possible future developments.

Yaku has a long well respected history of service in Cuenca. He and Hervas both killed it in Azuay province/Cuenca each beating Arauz significantly. So, those opinions are not unexpected.

I am by nature and long practice slow to buy random stuff floating among the intertubes. I can remember the likes of Rachel Maddow at Air America, Media Matters, TOP, and so, so many more who were only selling stuff to push narratives to make lots of bucks and a name that makes more bucks. None of them are in my bookmarks any more. Every single one of them showed that they were untrustworthy or got bought up when they had made a name for themselves and moved on and up. That's an important point. Every single one was selling something - themselves usually. That is always the tell.

Charles Pierce's Three Great Premises are a very reliable lens to judge someone's content. I don't know what Ben's selling (Premise #1) but I have my suspicions. I don't know his track record for finding news worthy information or how accurate is his reporting. I do know how often someone like him has remained on my reliable source list. Right now, he's just some guy posting stuff on the net. If he and what he has to say is worthy then he'll get noticed. Until then I'll use my time doing something useful not watching/reading titilating reports of unknowable accuracy.

It's not been so long since I bought the GameStop story without my usual caution only to find that the narrative was not what was really happening. Skepticism and letting news age are real good tools for sorting accurate stories from BS. So let's wait and see if Ben's dirt on Yaku has any legs before getting excited.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

Lookout's picture

@vtcc73

of the report, but I find the grayzone fairly reliable. Max Blumenthal, His wife, Anya, Ben, and Aaron Mate' are the primary reporters with others like Dan Cohen on occasion.

Take it for whatever you feel it is worth. Hope all is well with you and yours in the far south!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

vtcc73's picture

@Lookout Nothing else matters.

This story from the Guardian today serves as an example of the BS floating out there in the ether. Yeah, I know it's the Guardian.

The purpose of every site is to sell something not distribute "truth". We have different standards for evaluating information. Ben's story may or may not have credibility. I don't know. Let's see if it has legs. I sincerely doubt it will but can easily be wrong. It's data. Period. Without additional and independent support, evidence, and attribution it's nothing but a story.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

wendy davis's picture

@vtcc73

against my better instincts i can't just bow out of this discussion and stfu. i'd clicked into your cuenca site and today had found news of '13 million questionable ballots' to be reviewed later, Isabel __'s request to the the OAS (the American part is the key), and also this:

"On Monday, both Pérez and Lasso expressed confidence that they would face Arauz in the runoff. Pérez, however, suggested that there were “players,” including Lasso, former Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot and former president Rafael Correa who are working to overturn his lead. He also questioned results in several provinces, claiming that his vote was under-counted. Lasso, on the other hand, said it was “a time to remain calm,” as he expressed confidence in the election process."

yeah, well we might want to hear from rafael correa, no? how? didn't he have to flee to belgium? aha! yes, i dug out his post-presidential twitter account and found a few things of interest, at least to me.

ooopsie; i've lost track as to what this retweet contains:

but i did put a couple of Mashi's retweets thru the Bing translator:

Yaku completely aligns with the OAS' international right-wing narrative.
"Aráuz is the Maduro of Ecuador," he says, accusing the Venezuelan government of authoritarianism and suggesting intervention in Venezuela.

What's the name of the play?

The "environmentalist" candidate @yakuperezg
echoes a crude lie of the @RevistaSemana
Colombia that attributes links to @ecuarauz
with the ELN, q would have been produced alongside @ProgIntl_ES
At the Progressive International we have demented this infamy, but 'Yaku' uses it.

referring to this exposé at the guardian which Mashi had tweeted:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/09/ecuador-bird-fake-video-co...

yes, quite a mess.

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vtcc73's picture

@wendy davis Sorry, that's a bit harsh but anyone wanting to find stupid stuff on CHL has a lot of low hanging fruit. It is a news aggregator. Nothing more. It has a wide range of stories pulled from around the world, opinion pieces (some incredibly offensive on rare occasions - you won't find them because the editors pulled them after being called out), pieces by local writers, and an endless stream of good and bad comment contributions by the expat community in Ecuador. There is no truth dispensed at CHL. Just a lot of stuff to take or leave. It's a decent way to get a hint for further research.

That is how I tend to use the web. I try to filter everything through my bullshit detector. Sometimes I'm right in my evaluation and sometimes I'm wrong. The rights tend to maintain a majority but I have no investment in being right. When I allow myself to get into an argument about how right I am, that's when I know I'm off the rails. I have no interest in always being right or being a dispenser of truth. I say what I think and pass on information as I see it.

You and I have different standards for evaluating news items. Neither is right for anybody but ourselves. You are rather prolific in your writing here. Good. You always make me think. I have a very good body of data to understand what will get your interest enough to post and how you will see it. Things like Ben's story instantly lit up my bullshit detector and I said so. It looks like a hit piece. It just doesn't make sense from my perspective and experience. That said, I'm swimming in a new culture and political system that I do not understand. I only know enough to know that I don't really understand much and that my way of understanding politics in Ecuador isn't calibrated properly. In particular the interrelationships are much more entwined as one would expect with 40-some parties. This story didn't make sense to two people who I know here with more experience living in Ecuador. (One has 29 years and is married to an Ecuadorian.) Neither aligns well with my politics but I've come to respect their instincts almost as well as I trust mine.

For the record neither of them has anything good to say about Correa who is unlikely to think much of Yaku. I'm on the fence about Correa the more I learn about his presidency. He did lots of good but his record is mixed on some other important things like corruption. There are reasonable claims that Correa "fleeing" was due to a political prosecution. There is proven evidence of bribes in his administration but different opinions of what, if any, involvement he had. Like I said several times in several places here, it was not possible to put Yaku's movement together with Arauz's. There's bad blood. Bad blood usually results in all sorts of crazy shit flying around. What is true and what isn't is well beyond your or my ability to know. The Ben story you posted smells like more of the same. All of us could be wrong and Ben could be spot on. I'm fine with that.

You're apparently not. Ben and his website are trustworthy in your opinion. I'm perfectly OK with that too. I don't know what to think about him or his story. You know my initial thoughts. More will be revealed, or not, but I expect this story will just disappear down the internet drain. I have no intention of digging deeper without additional independent verification of the story. Please feel free to proceed as you wish.

I'm sorry that you're upset with the discussion. I really don't have any problems with differences of opinion and perspective.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

wendy davis's picture

@vtcc73

'against my better judgment'.

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The Latin American and Caribbean Election Observers Network Sunday denounced the Ecuadorean authorities' lack of foresight and planning for the voting process the country is undergoing this February 7.

"The election day has passed amid agglomerations and lack of control," the organization tweeted as it held the National Electoral Council (CNE) responsible for the long lines that many citizens were making outside polling stations.

Videos spread on social networks showed hundreds of voters waiting hours in long lines under the sun and without respecting social distancing.

Sixty-three percent of the nearly 12.7 million citizens summoned to the polls voted before 12h00 local time. The massive turnout and the lack of organization caused the country to report 1,200 agglomerations since the beginning of Election Day.

The Observers Network also criticized the CNE's decision of not allowing citizens to vote after 17h00, despite the long lines that were taking place outside the polling stations.

Irregularities were also registered in the election process abroad. On Sunday, former president Rafael Correa warned that Ecuador's consul in Brussels evicted that country's migrants who were in line to cast their vote at the embassy.

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vtcc73's picture

@humphrey were very localized. I'm not sure how widespread the problems were but the feeling I get from scattered reports are that the problems were isolated. As I've said many times, Cuenca is an oasis. It's sometimes easy to forget that it's not representative of all of Ecuador. I don't remember the exact numbers but the local CNE added over 50% more polling places and was more strict with biosecurity measures.

I think there is some legality about the poll closing times. I also seem to remember reading about localities remaining open anyway. Lots of reports are flying around but little solid information. There is no sense of how widespread any of these problems were. I imagine that information will be public in due time. I'm sure the voting was far from perfect or without some ratfuckery. This is politics not a bridge tournament.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

The Liberal Moonbat's picture

In a pinch, I can think of worse places to immigrate to than Latin America; Heaven knows they've got their problems, but it does seem that much of it is presently better-poised for a rise than a fall.

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In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!

vtcc73's picture

@The Liberal Moonbat may well be appearance only. The people of South America are revolutionaries at heart. They often win at the ballot box but face strong opposition from big money and have little power to effect real change.

Ecuador is a good example. It would appear that the left has a terrific victory in this election. Left leaning candidates won 3 of the 4 top spots with about 70% of the vote. A leftist will be president. The reality is that they may hold the presidency with a huge mandate but are faced with insurmountable budget limitations and can afford to do squat all. Ecuador needs investment but investment always has strings that favor big money. What the Morreno government agreed to for loans from the IMF and World Bank are economy stranglers but make elites rich. Morreno will be gone to suffer with offshore accounts to sooth his pain of failure if claims are accurate. It will be up to the new president to sort out an impossible task left for him without rejecting the conditions and possibly defaulting.

Ecuador needs a tough anticorruption government as much or more than it needs investment. Lasso should be in jail for his bank failures and offshore accounts used to evade taxes. There are lots of examples of money for investments into infrastructure just walking away.

On example I'm familiar with came from a friend. We traveled with him and his wife to one of his business locations in the high Amazon. He has production, research, and retail operations as well as a 4000 hectare botanical garden primarily focused on trees under development. We spent two nights at his house there. By air the trip is not far although crossing 14,000' mountains is an issue. (He wanted to talk to me about an airplane to ease his travel and use for ecotourism.) The drive is spectacular and long. Less than 100 miles by air is 3 1/2 hours by car. Much of the highway is excellent and relatively new. It was a $5 million infrastructure project to support a Canadian run copper mine. I say much of it because we would come around a bend or to a mountain stream crossing only to be in dirt and some gravel areas with dump truck size pot holes for a few hundred meters up to several kilometers. Three Bailey bridges crossed deep gorges because the Chinese company building the highway finally gave up $17 million into the project. Suppliers would be contracted and paid but never show up and just disappear. The highway is good enough to support car, bus, and truck traffic so in typical Ecuadorian fashion they make it work. The Chinese now run the copper mine because the Canadian company gave up as well. The story of the mine is similar to the road. Solve the corruption drains on the economy and many of Ecuador's problems solve themselves. Solving the corruption though requires starting at the very top of the food chain by going after the big guys. I'm not holding my breath.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."