No Donald. It's barely even begun

Our ADD President doesn't understand that something as subtle as long-term strategy and goals is a thing. The same applies to his fan base.

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Iran's missile attack was weak, but Iran's primary goal isn't quick revenge.

Khamenei said the U.S. should leave the region, adding, “Military action like this is not sufficient. What is important is ending the corrupting presence of America in the region,” Reuters reported.

Making America leave the region is probably out of Iran's control. However, making America leave Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria is doable.
In fact, it's quietly begun in Syria.

The United States evacuated one of its military bases in the Syrian province of Hasakeh, in the northeast corner of this country, media reported today.
...
Syrian media reported that the US military also began the evacuation of its two bases in the al-Omar oil field and the Conoco gas plant, in the northeast of the province of Deir Ezzor.

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Not coincidentally, that very same oil field that Conoco just fled came under mortar attack from Iranian forces just days ago.
Interestingly, the article ended with this.

An Omani envoy who visited Iran was told that Tehran is not interested in any mediation and left without meeting with officials on Saturday, according to Al Mayadeen.

The time for talking has ended. Diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran is not possible.
The only question is the best way to get America to leave.

When it comes to getting us to leave Syria and Afghanistan, the answer is force.
They need to make us bleed, and they will.
This may go on for a long time.

Iraq, OTOH, requires a more delicate touch. Because of that, it is unlikely that Iran will launch a major offensive in Iraq.
Instead they will only do enough to make it clear to Baghdad that you must kick out the U.S. or Iran will make Iraq a warzone.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper has pointed out that Iraq’s government has made no formal request that American forces leave its country. Only making a nonbinding vote Sunday to expel U.S. troops.

Esper also criticized the nature of the Iraqi vote Sunday, which saw dozens of that country's lawmakers decline to participate in protest. Most Kurdish and Sunni members of parliament did not vote, he said. He also claimed many of the Shiite lawmakers voted to expel American troops “at threat of their own lives” from powerful Iran-backed militias in Iraq.

Even if the Iraqis do ask the United States to leave their country, Esper added, it would require "procedural mechanisms and hurdles," and it would be unlikely that American troops would leave immediately after such a request.

The first part of that statement is true.
The Kurds don't want us to leave because they never wanted to be part of Iraq in the first place.
The Sunnis trust neither Baghdad nor America.
However, Esper's last point about "procedural mechanisms and hurdles" is pure bullsh*t.

Constitutionally, draft laws that do not originate in the Iraqi cabinet are non-binding, even if they are approved by parliament.

As such, the decision to expel foreign troops from Iraq would rest with the executive, specifically the cabinet of Adel Abdul Mahdi, who has backed the parliamentary vote.

The current government is officially a caretaker government, after Abdul Mahdi announced his resignation in December following pressure from anti-government protests. This limits the actual powers the government has to enact legislation.

However, the original invitation in 2014 for coalition forces to aid Iraq in fighting the Islamic State (IS) group was not based on parliament-approved legislation, but rather on an exchange of diplomatic letters between the Iraqi foreign minister and foreign officials.

The decision to remove the forces would not require the government to draft legislation for parliament and the government could potentially withdraw the invitation unilaterally.

Sajad Jiyad, managing director of the Bayan Centre, told Middle East Eye that, therefore, if Abdul Mahdi wanted to immediately action the vote taken in parliament, he could do so.

“It would just be an exchange of notes from Iraq’s foreign ministry to the foreign ministries of other countries and it could be just a quick process,” he explained.

Just like that. It could happen tomorrow.
The vote by parliament already gave them political cover.
So what's the hold up?
A lot of internal groups are going to need to be consulted with and reassured.
That will take some time. Plus, Trump is probably applying immense pressure against it.
Expect China, Russia, and India to play some small roles.

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Raggedy Ann's picture

on the EB that explains a lot about this.

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“The trouble [with injustice] is that once you see it, you can’t unsee it. And once you’ve seen it, keeping quiet, saying nothing, becomes as political an act as speaking out. There is no innocence. Either way, you’re accountable.”
-- Arundhati Roy

this could spread

Taliban commanders have traditionally been allied to Riyadh due to the Sunni-Wahhabi ideology they share with Saudi monarchs.

But the influence of both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on the Islamist group has been substantially reduced in the past few years. Tehran has made inroads in the region, and security analysts say it could complicate matters for US President Donald Trump's administration, which has been trying to finalize a peace deal with the Taliban for a respectable departure from the war-torn country.
...
Shiite-majority Iran is wary of Islamabad's alleged support for various Sunni militant groups, which have been involved in launching attacks in Iran's eastern areas, and massacring Shiite citizens inside Pakistan.

Supporting the US on Iran "would be a tough decision for the Pakistani government," Hasil Bezenjo, an opposition politician in Islamabad, told DW.

"Pakistan has a large Shiite population and if Islamabad sides with Washington, it would unleash a sectarian war in the country."

At the same time, Pakistan cannot afford to go against the US and Saudi Arabia, as its economy is heavily dependent on the two countries.

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CB's picture

@gjohnsit
China is now Pakistan's most important economic partner.

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middle east.
end of problem.
how to do?
strike against the military infrastructure
within the states
picket military contractors
in each state
declare peace

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May we be united and strong -- laurel

@QMS , it's very simple:

U.S. OUT of M.E.

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CB's picture

and restraint in NOT inflicting casualties at the two bases they struck.

Satellite images show MINOR but PINPOINT damage to US-Iraqi bases from Iranian missile attack, suggesting limited show of force

Commercial satellite imagery of military bases in Iraq targeted by Iranian missile strikes show only minor damage, bolstering theories that Tehran was aiming for a flashy show of force rather than to actually kill US troops.

The Ain Al-Asad military base in Iraq’s Anbar province, as well as another facility outside Erbil, in the Iraqi Kurdistan, found themselves under fire by two volleys of ballistic missiles, fired from inside Iran during the night between Tuesday and Wednesday. Satellite imagery released on Wednesday by the private US company Planet Labs shows only minor damage in both places, mostly to warehouses and equipment storage facilities rather than barracks.
...

Iran didn’t want to kill US troops with its strike, it wanted to make point to Trump about its missile tech & resolve. It did that

Iran’s anticipated retaliation for the US assassination of Qassem Suleimani sent a clear signal to Donald Trump that while the current round of violence may be over, Iran stands ready to respond to any future US provocation.
...
Showing off its new-gen ballistic missiles

But the most important aspect of Iran’s actions was the way its missiles were targeted. For years now, Iran has made significant strides in terms of the reliability, range and accuracy of its ballistic missile force. Gone are the days when Iran arsenal consisted solely of inaccurate Soviet-era SCUD missiles.
...

Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr says crisis over, after Trump & Iran speak

Influential Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has declared the “crisis” between the US and Iran over, following statements from the two countries’ leaders in the wake of Tuesday’s Iranian strikes on US bases in Iraq.

Al-Sadr made his pronouncement on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump gave a relatively subdued speech praising Iran’s restraint. Rather than call for retaliation against Iran over a strike that didn’t kill any Americans, Trump merely vowed to impose even more sanctions on the Islamic Republic “until Iran changes its behavior.”
...

Maybe it's time for America to change IT'S behavior.

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earthling1's picture

showed pinpoint targeting as revealed by the three buildings being hit directly in the middle of the center building destroying it completely and damaging both the outside buildings.
Also note 7 military helocopters parked on the tarmac near the targeted buildings. Five appear to be Blackhawks and two Chinooks. Apparently, the troops had to leave in a real hurry. Like, with only a few minutes warning.

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After six years, still getting robo-calls from Marriot Hotels.
They're like herpes.

CB's picture

to provide off ramp options to Iran & USA

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This column appeared today in the Louisville Courier Journal. It was written by a man who is running for the Democratic party's answer to Mitch McConnell. We now have three primary candidates, but this guy is also pro-choice, anti-charter schools and pretty much in line with Bernie's platform. His name is Mike Broihier (pronounced Broy-er). If there are readers here from KY, please pay attention to Mike.

This op-ed is awesome.

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/opinion/2020/01/09/war-still-racke...

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin