Nevada Caucus Summery (In First Comment)

          Grounded in a myriad of polls, sampling, and statistical techniques various individuals, organizations, and pundits have been leaking predictions from the wee hours of the day. As you all know I am a cranky old scientist and damn proud of it. I don't give much credence to such nonsense. I, on the other hand, thrive on data, modeling, and (most of all) clear thinking.

          So, here are some Nevada Democratic Results, reported from actual caucus tally sheets and displayed at www.npr.org (caution link opens in new window). Let us all hope this information is more in touch with reality than the insanity generated by the Iowa democratic (Idiocracy !) establishment.

Captured 16:34 PST 22 Feb 2020

Captured 18:31 PST 22 Feb 2020

Captured 19:33 PST 22 Feb 2020

Captured 20:06 PST 22 Feb 2020

Captured 21:17 PST 22 Feb 2020

Captured 21:49 PST 22 Feb 2020

Captured 05:53 PST 23 Feb 2020

Captured 15:56 PST 23 Feb 2020

Captured 10:38 PST 24 Feb 2020

Captured 12:38 PST 24 Feb 2020

A Plot for your Viewing Pleasure

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PriceRip's picture

          As a, non-blogger, cranky old scientist I prefer to leave the comments until after the data is in an analyzable state. I suppose, if I do this again, I will not bother to "publish" until I plot all of the data stream I can capture. I thought it was interesting to see how it was being reported "on the fly", knowing full well that any analysis "on the fly" was, for the most part, a waste of time. Far too many here don't share my point of view.

          The "R-value" is the square of the correlation coefficient or "r2", indicates an interesting consistency as the data was accumulated. The anomalous drops in certain totals at 05:53 PST 23 Feb 2020 do not instill confidence in this observer.

          From the NPR web site a footnote suggested now the percent of CC delegates were calculated. "Source: AP (as of 12:38 a.m. PT on Feb. 24, 2020) *CCD = County Convention Delegates. Raw votes in the Nevada Democratic precinct caucuses are used to calculate how many delegates a candidate will receive at county party conventions, the next step in the state's nominating process."

          Of the 14479 CCDs they were allotted as indicated below. I would have written the percentages a little differently:

Sanders Biden Buttigieg Warren Steyer Klobuchar
6788 2927 2073 1406 682 603
0.4688169072 0.2021548449 0.1431728711 0.0971061537 0.0471027005 0.0416465225
46.9 %
20.2 %
14.3 %
9.7 %
4.7 %
4.2 %

          I am disappointed that they didn't see fit to summarize the caucus vote count in the same manner:

          Of the 101051 caucus participants statewide the final alignments were as indicated below:

Sanders Biden Buttigieg Warren Steyer Klobuchar
41075 19179 17598 11703 4120 7376
0.4064779171 0.1897952519 0.1741496868 0.1158128074 0.0407714916 0.0729928452
40.6 %
19.0 %
17.4 %
11.6 %
4.1 %
7.3 %

RIP

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"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
Robert J. McCloskey, U.S. State Department spokesman. From a press briefing during the Vietnam war.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@PriceRip

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

magiamma's picture

For my viewing pleasure. I await.

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Stop Climate Change Silence - Start the Conversation

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PriceRip's picture

@magiamma

          This Hot Link will take you to the plot for your viewing pleasure. If you cannot see it then your device is not capable of seeing Portable Network Graphics, and that would be an unfortunate property of your device. The target site is secure.

RIP, an old hacker.

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"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
Robert J. McCloskey, U.S. State Department spokesman. From a press briefing during the Vietnam war.

magiamma's picture

@PriceRip

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Stop Climate Change Silence - Start the Conversation

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PriceRip's picture

@magiamma

          is short for "Thank you very much - no/thanks" ?

          So, have a good day.

RIP

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"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
Robert J. McCloskey, U.S. State Department spokesman. From a press briefing during the Vietnam war.

Bisbonian's picture

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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

snoopydawg's picture

It's kinda about the Nevada caucus.

The planes make a nice touch to it.

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America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

PriceRip's picture

@snoopydawg

          I want this to happen at every primary and every caucus.

          Then for the general election I want Trump to be forced to be on stage with Bernie.

RIP

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5 users have voted.

"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
Robert J. McCloskey, U.S. State Department spokesman. From a press briefing during the Vietnam war.

@snoopydawg

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@snoopydawg

"They're gonna kill him but they might not stop him?"

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2 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

snoopydawg's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

I've been asking why Williams thought it was okay to say that about a candidate that is pissing off the establishment. We know the history of what happened to others who did.

Matthews is not the only one who owes an apology.

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2 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

is where they stopped reporting just in time for the Sunday news show cycle.

It's also where Buttigieg's numbers are best and where everyone else takes a dip off their trendline.

Hmmmmm.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

PriceRip's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

RIP

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2 users have voted.

"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
Robert J. McCloskey, U.S. State Department spokesman. From a press briefing during the Vietnam war.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

why the heck aren't they cheating?!

Is it just that Bernie provided his peeps with a way to record votes independently?

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1 user has voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem