NBC Marist Poll shows 7 point Clinton Lead among Registered Dems
I posted earlier about how the "likely primary" voter category necessarily excludes many younger voters.
Interestingly, the just released NBC Marist poll that shows Clinton up by 14 points (+/- 4.2%) in NY among likely primary voters does not show the age breakdowns.
However, it DOES show male vs. female polled
Since women vote for Hillary more often, this 8 point differential shows significant poll bias. Even with a moderate (2%) Sanders' favorable among men this will create a 6 point swing in Sanders' favor (3 for sanders, -3 for Clinton).
Also of note, the differential among likely primary voters (often excluding younger voters) The differential between Clinton and Sanders falls from +14 to +7.
The NBC Marist Poll is well known to miss younger and first time voters. For instance in Michigan, they missed the results by 20 points (favoring Clinton). note: in this poll, the democratic party electorate (not likely primary voters) favored Clinton by only 8 points (meaning they missed the results by only 11 points!!!)
If anything, this poll shows that NBC Marist is a junk poll, the average poll miss in northern states falls between 4 and 18 points in Sanders' favor. So it is really all about getting out the vote.
Prior Marist poll results show that this race is DEAD EVEN.
Comments
Hoping for a movement
It is all about GOTV. Help if you can. We still have a path.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Past performance
Polls only tell you about the past. If that.
Humans like to think they can predict the future, and part of the success of science has been identifying situations where this can be done reliably. But there are scientists like physicist Lee Smolin who argue that we live in a dynamic universe where the laws of physics may change over time or new laws may emerge for new situations.
This is controversial in physics, but human systems are well known for being highly chaotic and unpredictable (this is why playing the market is so hard). So remember what Aslan said:
So let's not worry so much and instead find out what will happen.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
I saw this bias
Thank you for pointing this out. Also, what does the "Landline frame" mean at the top of the poll? Does that mean only landline phones were used in this poll?
I really feel good about this poll because when you look at the data points, it is garbage.
These polls are always going to be biased
to older Americans (or business people) who feel the need to answer unfamiliar numbers. I'm in my 40s now, but I will never answer a number I don't recognize, and so I never get polled.
I think polls are going to continue to be more and more wrong as long as they are using an outdated methodology. There's no reason they couldn't get an authentic poll on the internet, allowing one vote per IP address or something, and get a much more representational poll.
But for now, their methodology is hurting their accuracy.
I suspect most polling outfits are OK with that right now, as the PTB want people to think the Queen is inevitable.
We're an entire generation older than you and don't answer
unknown nos. and, if we happen to pick up the phone for a survey, we give this reply and hang up: "This household does not participate in marketing or any other kind of survey. Thank you."
We're seniors who have cell phones but use a VOIP home phone--not a formal land line. We're also Bernie or Bust voters who wouldn't vote for HRC for anything.
"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." --Jiddu Krishnamurti
I have a cynical view of polls.
I think it is just the media having fun with the voters by manipulating their emotions (propaganda technique). I often doubt they have done any polling at all and just shove some numbers out to get people to click on their sites or to influence the vote (kind of like calling the election early)
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
I handle polls for a living....some minor interesting stuff
more and more of the polling is done online by email invitation. Email addresses are now part of the voter database so when people answer the questions on their computer screen all the demographic info becomes part of the survey data.
At this point, generally, we're at about 30% online, 70% phones (and of that there's a decent percentage of cell phones, the rest landline).
The thing that fascinates me is that demographic stuff. Existing databases are so chock full of information. When you get called (or when you answer online) they already know your gender, age, whether you own or rent, your ethnicity, how often you vote, your political party. They don't have to ask you for that. They've already got it!
I suspected about that database depth
I am effectively unlisted in the white pages, phone is still in deceased husband's name. Which is not my surname, never was. My weak attempt to fly under the radar.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
Polls this cycle are bullshit anyway,
regardless of sources--and I have said that about the ones that favor Bernie, too. So please, stop focusing so much on them and GOTV!