Is it time for the center-right to collapse?

The center-left has been collapsing across the western world for about a decade now. In many European nation, the center-left has largely ceased to exist. It even has a name: Pasokification.
centerleft.png
europe.PNG
Until now this collapse has been to the advantage of the center-right, although it has increasingly helped both the far-right and far-left. In the short-run, centrists that often voted for the neoliberal center-left simply moved to the neoliberal center-right.

This trend may be about to end.

After the center left suffered a working-class revolt against globalization and austerity, the mainstream pro-European center right is being shredded by voters demanding tougher action against migration.

Battered by a growing assault from the Euroskeptic populist right, moderate conservatives from Berlin to Paris and Rome are torn between trying to outbid their tormentors with anti-immigration rhetoric or sticking to a more liberal, pro-European message.
...
In Italy, veteran center-right billionaire Silvio Berlusconi thought he could tame the extreme right by forging an electoral alliance with Matteo Salvini’s anti-immigrant League and the post-fascist Brothers of Italy. Instead, his Forza Italia party was outpolled, then sidelined as Salvini joined forces with the anti-establishment 5Star Movement to form a government of populists.

In Germany, Merkel’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), fears losing its absolute majority in Bavaria in October due to the rise of the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany. German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, the CSU’s leader, is demanding that border police refuse entry to asylum seekers registered in another EU country.

Much of the focus has been on Merkel's increasingly fragile coalition in Germany.
However, it is happening in all the major nations of Europe.

In France, Macron's neoliberal austerity policies have gotten so unpopular that after France won the World Cup, Macron's ratings actually fell.
Now the mainstream conservatives are pushing for a no-confidence vote, which could trigger a new election.

France’s conservative Les Républicains party on Tuesday announced plans for a motion of no confidence in Emmanuel Macron’s government, which has been under pressure since footage emerged of the president’s top bodyguard assaulting a protester.

“The government has failed,” Christian Jacob, leader of the Les Républicains’ lawmakers in the lower house of parliament, told reporters. “There is a real drift at the highest levels of the government and the government allowed this [to happen], even though it was responsible for stopping it — and we want an explanation.”

The leftist France Insoumise (France Unbowed) party is best positioned to take on Macron.

In Britain, the center-right Tories are threatening to implode over the failure to properly handle Brexit. In response, PM Theresa May will be taking personal charge of the Brexit negotiations herself.
This in no way inspires confidence.

Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans to leave the European Union are overwhelmingly opposed by the British public and more than a third of voters would support a new right-wing political party committed to quitting the bloc, according to a new poll.

If/When the Tory government collapses, the newly socialist UK Labour Party is well positioned to sweep to victory.

Labour has opened up its biggest lead over the Tories since the general election, according to polls carried out after the prime minister unveiled her Brexit plans.

The fallout from the controversial Chequers summit appears to have caused a drop in support for the Conservatives and a revival of fortunes for UKIP.

A poll carried out for the Observer by Opinium on 10 July puts the Tories on 36 per cent, a fall of six points since June, while Labour remained on 40 per cent. UKIP rose by five points to eight per cent.

If the results were repeated at a general election, the Tories would lose around 50 seats and Labour would be the largest party, albeit 26 seats short of a majority.

For now the GOP is holding together, but I expect the right to turn on each other the moment the economy goes south. Their implosion might be even more spectacular than the Democrats implosion under Obama.

Share
up
0 users have voted.

Comments

up
0 users have voted.
arendt's picture

up
0 users have voted.
Bollox Ref's picture

@gjohnsit
Must surely excite the 'yoof' of today.

What's not to like about a couple of old prunes shuffling into the future.

Go Team Dem.... if hip replacements allow.

up
0 users have voted.

Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.

up
0 users have voted.

Please help support caucus99percent!

definitions, "center right" means members of the right who (a) self-identify as Democrats or unaffiliated; and who (b) are (sometimes) are more politically correct, at least verbally, than some of their fellow rightists who self-identify as Republicans.

I don't know if the center has collapsed, but I believe it is under attack as more and more of us wake up and stop ooh-ing and ah-ing over the New Democrat* Emperors' new duds. And, for that, I am grateful.

As a tangentially-related aside, today, I watched a bit of The Royal House of Windsor (Netflix). One of the narrators made the point that the British royals, while still known by the German name of Saxe-Coburg Gotha, realized during World War I that, as a constitutional monarchy, their existence depended not upon the second class, but on what some might call the lower classes, aka the hoi polloi (Greece), the rabble (the Founders, esp. Madison), the lumpenproletariat (guess who), etc. So, they changed their name to Windsor (after the castle!) to seem more British.

Very obviously, the name change did not alter their DNA, but nonetheless somehow made them more acceptable to British survivors of the Gotha bombings of England that had killed so many English children and adults. (Earl Spencer's eulogy of Princess Diana described her as a "very British girl," which was widely perceived as an oblique, snarky reference to her in-laws' Germanic heritage.)

Kind of reminded me of those whose DNA is Republican, but who use the name name "New Democrats" so as to seem more acceptable to Democrats who had become Democrats because of certain perceptions abou t FDR, HST, LBJ, etc.**

OK, not the most apt analogy in the world, but that's what I thought as I watched.

*Despite all the brouhaha about the adjective "Democrat" versus "Democratic," New Democrats themselves use "Democrat" as an adjective, as in New Democrat Coalition. https://newdemocratcoalition-himes.house.gov/

**https://caucus99percent.com/comment/359373#comment-359373

up
0 users have voted.
Bollox Ref's picture

@HenryAWallace

I'm flying the state flag of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha today.

up
0 users have voted.

Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.

@Bollox Ref

your post is priceless.

up
0 users have voted.

@Bollox Ref That lovely old King Leopold surely appreciates the remembrance.

up
0 users have voted.

Please help support caucus99percent!

Bollox Ref's picture

@Dallasdoc
Family members hail from that part of Germany.

up
0 users have voted.

Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.

EdMass's picture

@Bollox Ref

You surfaced Dallasdoc.

Some good blogging there.

up
0 users have voted.

Prof: Nancy! I’m going to Greece!
Nancy: And swim the English Channel?
Prof: No. No. To ancient Greece where burning Sapho stood beside the wine dark sea. Wa de do da! Nancy, I’ve invented a time machine!

Firesign Theater

Stop the War!

I think that's the common explanation behind the collapse of the center-left and the impending collapse of the center-right. Lefties got sick and tired of the neo-liberals first, but now nativists are starting to figure out that the capitalists are not on their side. Even mouth breathers on the right will eventually figure it out if they've gotten screwed hard enough and long enough.

If Labor or France Insoumise wins a general election, the Empire Strikes Back reaction from the oligarchs is going to be fierce. Leftists better be ready to fight just as hard, and to warn the rich that they have a hell of a lot more to lose than the followers of the left ruling parties. And they better be ready to hit hard and fast. The Democrats here are no threat to their paymasters, alas.

up
0 users have voted.

Please help support caucus99percent!

lotlizard's picture

@Dallasdoc  
a movement opposed to the European single currency, the euro — neo-liberals’ crowning achievement.

Under Angela Merkel’s endless reign, all of Germany’s major parties became de facto neo-liberal.

The trouble is that, as presently constituted, the E.U. and the ideas that guide its elite are neo-liberal through and through, and all established parties back the E.U.

Once it became clear that in the E.U., as in America, only the top “N” percent were benefiting while everyone else was stagnating or losing ground, the rise of the AfD and other right-wing populist parties was inevitable.

On paper, the E.U. had a principle called “subsidiarity” which said that decisions should to be made on as local a level as possible. That’s not the way things have worked out. The E.U.’s vision seems to be something more and more like the U.S. federal government, with more and more power and authority arrogated to, and centralized in, itself.

European neo-liberals want to “educate” everyone to perceive residual regionalism and nationalism as the equivalent of “states’ rights” in the U.S. — backward, racist, deplorable, something to be eradicated. German, Italian, Polish, Czech: someday it’ll all be as meaningless and interchangeable as historical differences between New Jersey, Delaware, and Pennsylvania.

The joke may be on AfD voters, though. Though they may think they’re voting for neo-mercantilism along the lines of Trump, there is reason to believe that the AfD, if it were ever in government, on economic issues would end up neo-liberal too, only slightly more nationalist rather than thorough-going globalist.

up
0 users have voted.

@Dallasdoc So good to see you around again Doc, I will literally rec anything you write.

Don't blame you for taking a break, but it's always great to hear from you.

up
0 users have voted.

Is that Pelosi, Schumer, and most of the rest have kitchen table that prob. costs more than we make in a year, set by kitchen staff and eat food prepared by a hired cook. This is what happens if you "make it". They need people to tell them what to be concerned about, read the polls, unless something pops into their field of vision that offends them. They don't live in our world anymore, if they ever did. I was going to say that European governments appear to be more nimble than in the US, but the republicans seem prepared from day one to start their implementing their agenda. No rule or dept. too small to alter to their ideology. The democrats seem disorganized, unprepared on which special interest voting group to pander to first. They just stroll along bickering about what's really important and celebrating the most minor victory as if it was a major win.

up
0 users have voted.

@Snode
He probably never stood in a checkout line in his life.

up
0 users have voted.

I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

lotlizard's picture

@Snode  
https://www.countrysideamishfurniture.com/products/leg-tables

How about the “Cypress Creek” dining table on that page? Reasonably priced, I’m sure — they’re Amish, after all — starting at $3,023.

Or here, the top of the line one that prices out at $8,205:

https://www.erikorganic.com/dining-room/dining-table-round-craftsman.shtml

up
0 users have voted.
Cassiodorus's picture

from "Right" to "Left," was based upon the seating arrangement of the Estates-General, that assembly of nobles, clergy, and commoners that the French Kings could call upon when they were in trouble, as King Louis XVI was when France was bankrupt.

It no longer applies. "Center-right" and "Center-left" are mere names for the parties of capital, the "Center-left" a bit nicer on the social issues than the "Center-right." "Left" and "Right" imply parties of capital with extra foot-stamping.

There are, of course, groups of people in the world who want to end the rule of capital. I suppose we should call them "utopians," since there is no solid plan at present and since the rest of the world seems happy to coast along with the rule of capital until climate change disasters or some version of social chaos interrupts everyone's regularly scheduled program. The world's most powerful social forces, after all, are the US military and the world's trust in the value of money.

up
0 users have voted.

"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

k9disc's picture

I have not heard much from the WSF or the Left of Central and South America these days, but Mexico just had a tremor in the capitalist framework.

After I realized that the EU was a neoliberal project to "compete" with America and China, the WSF and the Global South were kind of the last hope from outside the West.

They keep getting smashed and regime changed though... fancy that. I wonder how that happens. Maybe we should ask Brennan, Clapper, or Woolsey. I'm sure they know, and we can trust them.

I'm anticipating the good old fashioned Russian terrorist ploy. Same as it ever was... Wink /snark

@Cassiodorus

up
0 users have voted.

“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

@k9disc
Just like the newly independent American colonies found that separate state currencies and a crazy quilt of tariffs and regulations didn't make sense. Which is why the new more centralized Constitution gave power over the coinage and interstate commerce to Congress instead of the states. At that time the European countries (the larger ones anyway) were big enough to have independent economies. Not any longer. Technology and the scale of manufacturing have made continental economic union necessary. Here too. Only in North America one country is so large it dominates the others. There should be a common currency and interstate commerce rules here too. And as for defense, does anyone doubt that Mexico and Canada rely on the USA to push back any serious invasion? The concept of NAFTA was good. The implementation of NAFTA was not. NAFTA should be renegotiated but not Trump's way, nor Clinton's.

But back on the main subject, I think there was too much thought of "United States of Europe" in the EU concept stage. Separate languages and centuries of warfare made Europe a much different situation than the 1780's United Colonies who had a mostly common ethnicity and language (ex-Pennsylvania) and no history of serious warfare between themselves. Nevertheless even they were deeply suspicious of each other and historians can see the seeds of the Civil war already sprouting.

up
0 users have voted.

I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

Cassiodorus's picture

@k9disc the Zapatistas, or the Kurds of Syria, or the nice people of Cheran in the state of Jalisco who have kicked the politicians out. They are marginal, but that's why they are allowed to survive in a political era when all the parties are parties of capital. These entities will not be regime changed because they are not playing any games of follow-the-leader. They could be smashed, though.

up
0 users have voted.

"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

k9disc's picture

those holdouts are going to get tied to "Putin Terrorists". I'd bet on the term being a hot item before 2020.

@Cassiodorus

up
0 users have voted.

“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu