Something to keep in mind…

At 4°C of warming, would a billion people survive? What scientists say.

Climate Code Red 8-18-19

The 4°C story goes like this:

• On the present path, we may well exceed 4°C this century. At the moment Earth appears to be heading towards 1.5°C by 2030 and 2°C before 2050, and if the feedbacks kick in, 4°C some 30-50 years after that.


• Whilst it would take several centuries to a millenia or so to melt all the ice, sea levels could be up by 2–3 metres by 2100 …

• Ocean acidification renders many calcium-shelled organisms at the base of the ocean food chain artefacts of history. There would be no coral reefs of note. Ocean ecosystems and food chains collapse. …

• Warmer ocean waters decrease the photosynthetic productivity of phytoplankton, and a warm ocean surface layer stays unmixed with the cooler, nutrient-rich waters below, severely reducing the algae population. Algae, which comprise most of the ocean’s plant life, are the world’s greatest carbon dioxide sink, pumping down the gas, as well as contributing to cloud cover by releasing dimethyl sulphide (DMS) into the atmosphere, a gas connected with the formation of clouds, so that warmer seas and less algae will likely reduce cloud formation and further enhance positive feedback. Severe disruption of the algae/DMS relation would signal spiralling and irreversible climate change.


• Hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon locked up in Arctic permafrost – particularly in Siberia – enter the melt zone, releasing globally warming …

• Aridification emerges over more than 30 percent of the world’s land surface. …

• Vince Gaia in his Guardian article reports: “A wide equatorial belt of high humidity will cause intolerable heat stress across most of tropical Asia, Africa, Australia and the Americas, rendering them uninhabitable for much of the year…

• Food production tumbles as a consequence of a greater than one-fifth decline in crop yields, a decline in the nutritional content of food crops, a catastrophic decline in insect populations, desertification, monsoon failure and chronic water shortages, and conditions too hot for human habitation in significant food-growing regions.


• The destabilisation of the Jet Stream very significantly affects the intensity and geographical distribution of the Asian and West African monsoons and, together with the further slowing of the Gulf Stream, impinges on life support systems in Europe …

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HOT AIR NEWS ROUNDUP

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This Week’s Highlights
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Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows
NYT 10-29-19

[Researchers] developed a more accurate way of calculating land elevation based on satellite readings, a standard way of estimating the effects of sea level rise over large areas, and found that the previous numbers were far too optimistic. The new research shows that some 150 million people are now living on land that will be below the high-tide line by midcentury. … The projections don’t account for future population growth or land lost to coastal erosion. Standard elevation measurements using satellites struggle to differentiate the true ground level from the tops of trees or buildings, ... So [the researchers] used artificial intelligence to determine the error rate and correct for it. … But even if that investment happens, defensive measures can go only so far. … “How deep a bowl do we want to live in”?

The coming electric vehicle transformation
Science 10-25-19

How far electrification will go depends primarily on a single factor—battery technology. In comparing electric with gasoline vehicles, all the downsides for electric arise from the battery. Purchase price, range, charging time, lifetime, and safety are all battery-driven handicaps. ... There is now an intense drive to develop lithium metal anodes and solid-state electrolytes spanning academic, government, and industrial laboratories. … The combination of lithium metal anodes with solid-state electrolytes would mark the first disruptive step in lithium-ion battery development, breaking a three-decade pattern of steady incremental advances in performance and cost. … Batteries and their supply chains are the new oil; leadership in the battery and electric vehicle market requires strategically securing not only battery technology but also the battery materials supply chain.

Greta Thunberg will quit Facebook if it doesn't curb hate speech and conspiracy theories: 'The lack of taking responsibility is very disturbing'
meaww 10-25-19

Climate activist Greta Thunberg has considered quitting Facebook, as she finds the social media platform's "lack of taking responsibility very disturbing". She cited that it takes negligible interest in curbing the massive amounts of hate speech, conspiracy theories and lack of fact-checking that reigns on the forum. Sharing her sentiments on a Facebook post to her 2.6 million followers, the 16-year-old wrote on Wednesday, October 23: "I am, like many others, questioning whether I should keep using Facebook or not." "Allowing hate speech, the lack of fact-checking and, of course, the issues of interfering with democracy... are among many, many other things that are very upsetting," she wrote. "The constant lies and conspiracy theories about me and countless others, of course, result in hate, death threats and ultimately violence. This could easily be stopped if Facebook wanted to. I find the lack of taking responsibility very disturbing," she added. In conclusion, she noted: "But I'm sure that if they are challenged and if enough of us demand change — then change will come."

Key Question as Exxon Climate Trial Begins: What Did Investors Believe?
Inside Climate News 10-26-19

As the trial got underway this week, the New York Attorney General's Office called that former manager, Guy Powell, to the stand to explain. The notes had been attached to a presentation about how Exxon estimated the future financial impact of government climate policies. The company had two sets of estimates at the time: one that was shared with investors and another that was used only internally. The public estimate, which Exxon referred to as its "proxy cost," was higher, suggesting a future with stricter limits on emissions. The internal figures, which it called a "greenhouse gas cost," were lower. Powell and his manager Mark Shores, who actually gave the presentation, were preparing to recommend to Exxon executives that the company align these two costs. The notes said that the company had incorrectly "implied" to investors in recent reports that it was using the higher public estimate in its internal calculations.

Senate Hearing Calls out the Influence of Dark Money in Blocking Climate Action
Desmog 10-29-19

Today Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) led a hearing of Senate Democrats’ Special Committee on the Climate Crisis, which examined “Dark Money and Barriers to Climate Action.” The testimony of the expert panel and the questions and observations from senators reinforced the overwhelming influence of money — and specifically untraceable donations known as “dark money” — working against action on climate change. Sen. Whitehouse called out the considerable investment by the fossil fuel industry and dark money interests in the Republican Party, which has gained a reputation as the party of climate science denial. “Much of it was used to impose climate denial orthodoxy on the Republican party,” said Whitehouse. “And why not spend a few billion dollars? Buying or renting the Republican Party or seizing it in a hostile takeover … was a total bargain.”

Good opinion piece…

What didn’t get discussed when PG&E turned out the lights, and what must change
CAL MATTERS 10-24-19

But here’s the thing. We’re missing the bigger picture about the climate crisis. The PG&E power shut off is a story about the climate crisis and corporate greed.  It is a story about how California is unprepared for the massive change we need to make in order to cope with what’s happening. PG&E is but one example of how the climate crisis is affecting our state. Californians have already lost their homes to fire and mudslides. Cities are contending with extreme heat and flooding.  Refugees are seeking refuge from across the border. These are all loud, flashing warning signs that the effects of climate change have begun. We are faced with something unprecedented. To deal with the climate crisis, we are going to have to radically transform our economy, our infrastructure, our housing, our way of life. Everything.

Kyarr Nears Cat 5 Strength in Arabian Sea; Pablo a Hurricane; California Faces Hellish Sunday of Fire
Category Siz 10-17-19

Spinning west of India, Super Cyclonic Storm Kyarr rocketed to high-end Category 4 strength this weekend, becoming the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea behind only Gonu in 2007. … Against all odds, and expectations, tiny Tropical Storm Pablo became a hurricane on Sunday in the northeast Atlantic after moving through the southeastern Azores. … A powerful upper-level storm pivoting across California pushed high winds southward across much of the state from Saturday night into Sunday, aggravating an already volatile situation. Wind gusted to 103 mph near Alpine Meadows in the Sierra Nevada, with powerful gusts fanning the Kincade Fire north of San Francisco near Geyserville (more than 30,000 acres burned as of Sunday). … The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center has flagged the potential for “extremely critical” fire weather—its highest-concern outlook—for parts of the North Bay on Sunday and for parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Monday. A statewide emergency has been declared by California Governor Gavin Newsom.

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LEGISLATION, ELECTIONS & POLICY
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Excellent read…

Trump Admin Proposes New Rule to Allow Shipping Flammable LNG by Rail
Desmog 10-25-19

However, the proposed rule does not include any new safety regulations or require any safety testing for moving large quantities of this flammable cargo. Instead, the rule, coming from the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) and Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), would allow the rail industry to move LNG in rail tank cars, labeled DOT-113, currently used to ship small quantities of other flammable gases super-cooled into liquid form.

15 Canadian Kids Sue Their Government for Failing to Address Climate Change
Inside Climate News 10-25-19

Fifteen children and teenagers from across Canada sued their government on Friday for supporting fossil fuels that drive climate change, which they say is jeopardizing their rights as Canadian citizens. The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Vancouver, is the latest from young climate advocates around the globe who are increasingly leading public protests and filing legal challenges to make their concerns about their future in a warming world heard. "The federal government is knowingly contributing to the climate crisis by continuing to support and promote fossil fuels and through that they are violating our charter rights,"

Google Spends Millions On Climate Denial
Clean Technica 10-23-19

“The Competitive Enterprise Institute was founded in 1984 and describes itself as ‘a non-profit public policy organization dedicated to advancing the principles of limited government, free enterprise, and individual liberty.’” Do those words sound familiar to you? They should. They are the guiding principles of Charles Koch, who has profited handsomely from government regulation while steadfastly campaigning — in secret — to destroy all government regulations. … ExxonMobil has been one of CEI’s top funders, contributing at least $2.1 million since 1997. Donors Trust, a creation of Charles Koch’s never ending campaign to subvert the US government, donated over $4 million to CEI as of 2013. Donors Trust has been described as the “dark money ATM of the conservative movement” … What it comes down to is this. In the space of less than 20 years, Google has gone from game-changing upstart to a mainstream, risk adverse major American corporation interested primarily in preserving its hegemony over the tech world at all costs. And if that means crawling into bed with some of the worst climate deniers, so be it, just so long as government doesn’t do anything to interrupt the flow of cash into its corporate coffers. Profits first. Principles? Who needs them? They are just something the company can trot out now and then when it’s convenient to do so. “Don’t be evil” has been forever banished from Google’s thinking.

Four States, Led by New York, Challenge Trump Admin Over Oil Train Safety Rule
Desmog 10-29-19

n other words, the same natural gas liquids that make the oil more dangerous to move by rail also make it more valuable. That issue is at the heart of why longer, heavier trains loaded with volatile crude oil continue rolling through cities and towns across North America. … As we have noted repeatedly at DeSmog, when an actual oil scientist is asked about this issue, there is no ambiguity about how to reduce the volatility, and risk, of Bakken oil. … “The notion that this requires significant research and development is a bunch of BS,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Houston, told Al Jazeera in 2015. “The science behind this has been revealed over 80 years ago, and developing a simple spreadsheet to calculate risk based on composition and vapor pressure is trivial. This can be done today.”  Nevertheless, the oil industry and its supporters in the North Dakota government seem set on casting doubt on the science of oil volatility while pushing for the Trump administration to overrule state safety regulations focused on protecting residents. After the Federal Railroad Administration's decision to pre-empt state rules requiring two-person crews on freight trains, Nevada’s Attorney General Aaron Ford filed a petition in July challenging the move.

Supreme Court permits Baltimore suit against energy companies to continue
Grist 10-27-19

A court case between the city of Baltimore and a group of energy companies will be permitted to continue after the Supreme Court earlier this week rejected the latter’s attempt to freeze the case. The litigation, which the city initiated in 2018, alleges that the energy companies are liable “for their direct emissions of greenhouse gases” and the damages they’ve caused the city and its residents. No explanation accompanied the Supreme Court rejection, but Baltimore is considering it a victory, since its case against companies including BP, Exxon Mobil, Shell, and Citgo can now continue. Though the ultimate decision of where the case should be heard may end up being more significant than the high court ruling. The energy companies’ request to halt the case is part of their broader legal fight to move the case from state to federal court. The companies hope to establish a precedent in which climate cases are largely heard by federal courts, where “climate-related cases have been largely decided in the companies’ favor,” reports Climate Liability News.

GM, Chrysler and Toyota side with Trump in emissions fight with California
LA Times 10-28-19

General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota and many others in the auto industry are siding with the Trump administration in a lawsuit over whether California has the right to set its own greenhouse gas emissions and fuel economy standards. The three companies, plus a trade association called the Association of Global Automakers, said Monday they plan to intervene in a lawsuit filed by the Environmental Defense Fund against the administration, which is planning to roll back national pollution and gas mileage standards enacted under the Obama administration.

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THE FIRES
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Climate change is contributing to California’s fires
National Geographic 10-25-19

Over the past century, California has warmed by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit, more than the global average of about one degree Fahrenheit. Hotter air draws water out of plants and soils more efficiently than cool, leaving the trees, shrubs, and rolling grasslands of the state dry and primed to burn. Crucially, that effect increases exponentially with every degree of warming, … That means that today’s hotter, climate-changed air is much more effective at drying vegetation to a crackle than it was 100 years ago. … Summertime air temperatures in California have warmed by over 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 1800s, and that summer warming is particularly impactful, new research shows. The area burned across California during the summertime is about eight times higher today than it was only in the 1970s. … Climate change may have already affected the characteristic autumn winds that have so often contributed to spreading fires across large swaths of the state. In the fall and winter, east-to-west (“offshore”) winds often flow across the state, with warm, dry air cascading down the western side of big mountain ranges like the Sierras. As the air flows downwards, it can get channeled into canyons or valleys, speeding as it falls. Gusts can reach 70 or 80 miles per hour.

This is an example of the cost of not fixing climate change…

Another Rising Cost of Climate Change: PG&E's Blackouts, Now Needed to Prevent Wildfires
Inside Climate News 10-29-19

Shutting down the power has become PG&E's primary defense to keep its troubled power lines from sparking wildfires in the dry landscape, as happened in 2017 and 2018 to deadly effect. It also vividly illustrates how the costs of failing to address climate change reach far wider than just property lost to the flames. The blackouts, while likely saving homes and lives, mean many businesses and industries can't operate, schools can't open, and gas stations remain shuttered. For small businesses, several days without power or customers could be devastating. Just the blackouts alone could cost the state billions. "This is an example of the cost of not fixing climate change," said Scott Denning, a climate scientist and professor of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State University. "People talk about the trillions of dollars it will cost to do something like the Green New Deal. But how many trillions does it cost when millions of people in the world's fifth largest economy are stuck without power?" One researcher estimated the costs from PG&E's first blackout earlier this month at about $2.5 billion.

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THE ARCTIC
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Ancient soil from secret Greenland base suggests Earth could lose a lot of ice
Science 10-29-19

In one of the Cold War’s oddest experiments, the United States dug a 300-meter-long military base called Camp Century into the ice of northwest Greenland in the early 1960s, powered it with a nuclear reactor, and set out to test the feasibility of shuttling nuclear missiles beneath the ice. A constant struggle against intruding snow doomed the base, which was abandoned in 1966. But Camp Century has left a lasting, entirely nonmilitary legacy: a 1.3-kilometer-long ice core drilled at the site. The core, extracted by a team that included glaciologist Chester Langway, yielded a record of past temperatures that helped kick off studies of Earth’s ancient climate. And last week, dozens of scientists met here at the University of Vermont (UVM) to take stock of another gift from the core: mud from Greenland’s ancient land surface, serendipitously discovered in archived samples. New analyses of the mud suggest Greenland’s massive ice sheet was largely absent in a warm period during the past million years when the global climate was much like today’s.

Reframing Antarctica's meltwater pond dangers to ice shelves and sea level
EurekAlert 10-25-19

Dangers to ancient Antarctic ice portend a future of rapidly rising seas, but a new study may relieve one nagging fear: that ponds of meltwater fracturing the ice below them could cause protracted chain reactions that unexpectedly collapse floating ice shelves. Though pooled meltwater does fracture ice, ensuing chain reactions appear short-ranged. Still, massive increases in surface melting due to unusually warm weather can trigger catastrophic ice shelf collapses like that of the iconic shelf "Larsen B," which shattered in 2002. Now, a study led by a researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology has modeled fracture chain reactions and how much water it would take for a repeat of that rare, epic collapse. Larsen B's disintegration was preceded by an atypical heatwave that riddled it with meltwater ponds, focusing researchers' attention on pond fracturing, also called hydrofracturing. They discovered that a melt pond hydrofracturing the ice shelf can prompt neighboring ponds to do the same. Concerns grew of possible extensive chain reactions, which the new study addressed.

Glacial rivers absorb carbon faster than rainforests, scientists find
The Guardian 10-25-19

The research team discovered the effect of chemical weathering in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere extended as far away as 26 miles (42km) from the headwaters of the river. This means that during high melt periods, glacial river water will absorb 40 times as much carbon as the Amazon rainforest. “On a per-metre-squared basis, these rivers can consume a phenomenal amount of carbon dioxide,” said St Pierre. But their limited size means on a gross scale, they pull in far less than the sprawling Amazon. The team plan on sampling meltwaters in the Canadian Rockies, and expect to find similar results.

Why Rising Acidification Poses a Special Peril for Warming Arctic Waters
Yale Environment 360 10-24-19

From the deck of a Norwegian research ship, the ravages of climate change in the Arctic are readily apparent. In the Fram Strait, the ocean passageway between Norway’s Arctic islands and the east coast of Greenland, seas that should be ice-covered in early September shimmer in the sunlight. Glaciers that muscled across mountains a decade ago are now in rapid retreat, leaving behind walls of glacial till. Rivers of meltwater gush off the Greenland Ice Sheet. But some of the biggest changes taking place in these polar seas are invisible. Under disappearing ice cover, these waters are rapidly growing more acidic as decades of soaking up humanity’s carbon emissions take their toll on ocean chemistry. That tipping point involves certain carbonate minerals that are essential to shell-building organisms. Carbonate ions, normally present at high, or “saturated,” concentrations in seawater, help buffer the acid produced when carbon dioxide reacts with water. But as marine carbon levels climb, more and more carbonate ions are being used up, lowering the ocean’s ability to buffer, and causing acidity — measured as a drop in pH — to rise. Those same carbonate ions are needed by creatures like starfish and clams, whose shells or skeletons are made of the calcium carbonate minerals aragonite or calcite.

Arctic expedition to investigate 'epicenter of climate change'
Reuters 10-20-19

Scientists from 19 countries are preparing to embark on a year-long expedition to the Arctic, the longest project of its kind, to better understand global climate change. The icebreaker Polarstern is preparing to set sail from Tromsoe in northern Norway, allowing hundreds of rotating researchers to spend the next year close to the north pole. “We want to go to the Arctic because it’s the epicenter of climate change,” … The expedition, called Mosaic, is the first opportunity climate researchers have had to study the Arctic during the winter season as it has lacked necessary icebreaker equipment.

The study for this article is below in the Climate Studies section…

New study: Antarctica’s tipping point is closer than we thought
Grist 10-24-19

The scientists behind the new study in Scientific Reports were able to reconstruct a 6,250-year record of how fast Antarctic glaciers slipped into the sea. They did this by drilling the bottom of the Southern Ocean between Antarctica and Tierra del Fuego and analyzing the layers of mud they pulled up. The story this mud tells between 4300 B.C. and 300 A.D. is uneventful. But around 1400, the skeletons of diatoms — ubiquitous, jewel-like sea creatures often used for dating ocean sediments — suggest that the weather became warmer. More oxygen isotopes that come from fresh (as opposed to saltwater) started showing up, meaning the glaciers were melting. Then around 1706, the ice began to melt even faster than before. So natural climate change had cued up the massive Antarctic ice shelves to collapse before human-caused climate change turned up the heat. A random shift in wind patterns has been melting the ice caps for the last 300 years, the scientists wrote, “potentially predisposing them to collapse under intensified anthropogenic warming.”

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FOSSIL FUELS
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As Drillers Continue Poor Financial Performance, Shale Insight Hosts Trump Speech Touting Fossil Energy Future
Desmog 10-24-19

To be sure, Chesapeake had been dogged by financial scandals long before Trump announced his candidacy. What about EQT, which grew from the third-ranked gas producer to the single largest producer of American gas during Trump’s time in office? A share of stock in EQT would have run you $34.22 on inauguration day. Yesterday, EQT traded at $9.62. One share of Range Resources stock would have cost you $34.54 on January 20, 2017. Yesterday, Range traded at $3.84 a share. It’s little secret that shale drilling companies have disappointed investors again and again. “The shale gas revolution has frankly been an unmitigated disaster for any buy-and-hold investor in the shale gas industry with very few limited exceptions,” former EQT CEO Steve Schlotterbeck told a petrochemical conference at the same convention center in Pittsburgh earlier this year. “The fact is that every time they put the drill bit to the ground, they erode the value of the billions of dollars of previous investments they have made.”

‘Like a Death in the Family’: Texas coal companies are leaving behind contaminated land. The state is letting them.
Grist 10-30-19

n the late 1970s, at the tail end of a sweeping push to bring electricity to rural Texas, Alonzo Peeler Jr. struck a series of deals with three electric cooperatives: They could build a coal-fired power plant on the sprawling Atascosa County ranch where his family had run cattle for more than a century. And they could mine the abundant lignite, or “brown coal,” from underneath the property to feed the plant. To Peeler, now 79, it made sense for a multitude of reasons. Not only would it bring more power generation to the farming and ranching region south of San Antonio, but it would boost the local tax base and bring additional income to his family. “Looking back,” Peeler says now, “I made a big mistake.”

Coca-Cola Named Most Polluting Brand in Global Audit of Plastic Waste
The Intercept 10-23-19

Coca-Cola was found for the second year in a row to be the most polluting brand in a global audit of plastic trash conducted by the Break Free From Plastic global movement. The giant soda company was responsible for more plastic litter than the next top three polluters combined. More than 72,000 volunteers fanned out onto beaches, paddled along waterways, and walked along streets near their offices and homes picking up plastic bottles, cups, wrappers, bags, and scraps for the one-day cleanup in September that was the basis for the audit. Sorting through the mounds of garbage, they found that the plastic represented 50 different types and could be traced back to almost 8,000 brands. Coke was responsible for 11,732 pieces of plastic litter found in 37 countries on four continents. After Coca-Cola, the next biggest contributors to the plastic pollution in the audit were Nestle, PepsiCo, Mondelez International — purveyor of snack brands like Oreo, Ritz, Nabisco, and Nutter Butter — and Unilever.

River of Trash
How Plastic Pollution Is Making Central American Communities Uninhabitable
The Intercept 10-27-19

Worldwide, an estimated 80 percent of ocean plastic comes from land as “mismanaged waste.” Indeed, in Guatemala, there are almost no properly managed landfills and virtually no public water treatment plants. The result is a noxious chowder of sewage, industrial and agricultural runoff, and an ever-replenished flotilla of plastic trash, churning out from the river mouth toward the massive Mesoamerican reef, which has long supported rich biodiversity and fishing communities from Cancún to Nicaragua. Now, the beaches here and in neighboring Honduras are regularly buried in artificial tidewrack of toothbrushes, makeup containers, old syringes and bottles of IV fluid, action figures, streamers of plastic film, and foil chip bags. … Since the first synthetic plastic appeared in 1907, we’ve made 8.3 billion tons of the stuff, 5 billion of which is still sloshing around the world, no longer in use but not going away anytime soon. Worldwide, countries with developing economies like Guatemala account for the main source of ocean plastic. Although high-income countries like the U.S. consume at a higher rate — and therefore throw away much more plastic per capita — less developed nations often lack infrastructure for proper recycling or disposal of waste, meaning that much more of their trash ends up in the ocean. In 2017, researchers found that 90 percent of the marine plastic washed out of just 10 rivers, including the Yangtze, the Nile, and the Ganges.

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WEATHER
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Why the ‘extreme red flag’ winds hitting L.A. region are especially dangerous
LA Times 10-30-19

“There’s actually record cold air mass right now over the Rockies and the Great Basin,” said Daniel Swain, climate scientist with UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. In Boulder, Colo., there’s a foot of snow on the ground and the temperature is 9 degrees — in October. “This extremely cold air mass directly from the Arctic is sitting just to the east of California. And that is obviously a great contrast with the not-so-frigid air over California, and especially as you get closer to the ocean,” Swain said. “That thermal contrast is setting up that strong pressure contrast, which is in turn driving these very strong winds.” While temperatures along the California coast are close to average for this time of year, they’re well below average to the state’s east — an extreme difference that’s driving the winds, Swain said. The air mass “dropped straight down southward out of the Arctic over the Rockies because there’s such a big mass of high pressure over Alaska right now, where they have been experiencing record warmth on a recurring basis, and where there is effectively no sea ice on the Arctic Ocean coast for the first time in recorded history in October.” The warm mass of air over Alaska, as a result, has had the effect of placing “a big blob of cold air over the Rockies, which is creating this extreme contrast that’s generating the winds in California,” Swain said.

Climate change is affecting the way Europe floods, experts warn
PHYS ORG 10-25-19

Climate change is disrupting the rhythms of spring growing and river flooding across Europe, which could pose new problems for biodiversity and food security in floodplains, scientists say. New analysis of five decades of European flood and temperature data, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, demonstrates for the first time an increasing overlap between the onset of spring and the highest points of seasonal flooding. … They found the thermal growing season—defined as periods where the temperature rose consistently above 5°C, encouraging plants and trees to begin to grow—has been consistently starting earlier in the year, bringing it closer to the periods where the highest river floods occur, which have begun to happen later in the year in Central and Eastern Europe.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr: The Arabian Sea’s 2nd Strongest Storm on Record
Scientific American 10-28-19

Spectacular Tropical Cyclone Kyarr peaked on Sunday, October 27, 2019 in the waters west of India as a category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. This made Kyarr the second most intense tropical cyclone on record in the Northern Indian Ocean’s Arabian Sea, … Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Arabian Sea have been boosted for months by one of the strongest positive modes on record of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD is an irregular natural oscillation of SSTs in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean. A positive IOD brings warmer-than-average SSTs to the Arabian Sea cooler-than-average SSTs near Indonesia. The current positive IOD event is the strongest in at least 60 years and has boosted SSTs in the region where Kyarr rapidly intensified by about 1°C (1.8°F). There is no long-term trend in the IOD, and it is uncertain how climate change may affect it.

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HEALTH
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Climate Change is not an ‘Equal Opportunity’ Crisis
The Health Care Blog 10-28-19

Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as an “equal opportunity” disaster. Yes, climate change poses an existential threat to us all, but not on equal terms. When nature strikes, it has always been the poor and historically underserved who are most vulnerable to its wrath. Hurricane Katrina provides an example of how natural disasters target their victims along racial and socioeconomic lines even in the wealthiest nations. Writes TalkPoverty.org, “A black homeowner in New Orleans was more than three times as likely to have been flooded as a white homeowner.

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ADAPTION AND RESILIENCE

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‘When are they going to ensure the polluter pays?’: proposed B.C. mining reforms don’t go far enough
The Narwhal 10-25-19

That’s because the proposed mining reforms, released last month and now open for public comment, deal only with the Mines Act and not the Mineral Tenure Act, which allows mining claims to be staked by nearly anyone in the world who has access to a computer, even if those claims lie within Indigenous traditional territory or sensitive ecosystems.  The suggested changes also don’t address ballooning liabilities associated with mining operations. The Environmental Law Centre has pegged the liability costs for old mines in B.C. at $1 billion, while a report from watchdog group MiningWatch Canada estimated the figure to be closer to $3 billion. “You need to have a guarantee that, when the mine closes up, it’s not going to leave the long-term problems that we’ve seen all over the province,” Sandborn told The Narwhal.

Dutch inventor unveils device to scoop plastic out of rivers
PHYS ORG10-25-19

A young Dutch inventor is widening his effort to clean up floating plastic from the Pacific Ocean by moving into rivers, too, using a new floating device to catch garbage before it reaches the seas. The 25-year-old university dropout Boyan Slat founded The Ocean Cleanup to develop and deploy a system he invented when he was 18 that catches plastic waste floating in the ocean. On Saturday he unveiled the next step in his fight: A floating solar-powered device that he calls the "Interceptor" that scoops plastic out of rivers as it drifts past.

MIT engineers develop a new way to remove carbon dioxide from air
EurekAlert 10-25-19

A new way of removing carbon dioxide from a stream of air could provide a significant tool in the battle against climate change. The new system can work on the gas at virtually any concentration level, even down to the roughly 400 parts per million currently found in the atmosphere. … The device is essentially a large, specialized battery that absorbs carbon dioxide from the air (or other gas stream) passing over its electrodes as it is being charged up, and then releases the gas as it is being discharged. In operation, the device would simply alternate between charging and discharging, with fresh air or feed gas being blown through the system during the charging cycle, and then the pure, concentrated carbon dioxide being blown out during the discharging.

Stanford study casts doubt on carbon capture
EurekAlert 10-25-19

"All sorts of scenarios have been developed under the assumption that carbon capture actually reduces substantial amounts of carbon. However, this research finds that it reduces only a small fraction of carbon emissions, and it usually increases air pollution," said Jacobson, who is a professor of civil and environmental engineering. "Even if you have 100 percent capture from the capture equipment, it is still worse, from a social cost perspective, than replacing a coal or gas plant with a wind farm because carbon capture never reduces air pollution and always has a capture equipment cost. Wind replacing fossil fuels always reduces air pollution and never has a capture equipment cost."

UN Scientists Say There Is A Way To Delay Climate Change For 20 Years For Pocket Change
Clean Technia 1-25-19

“We have lost the biological function of soils. We have got to reverse that,” Orr tells Bloomberg News. “If we do it, we are turning the land into the big part of the solution for climate change.” Rene Castro Salazar, an assistant director general at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, tells Time that almost half of the 5 billion acres of land around the world that have been degraded by misuse, overgrazing, deforestation, and other human factors could be restored at a cost of $300 billion. At least a third of the world’s land has been degraded to some extent, directly affecting the lives of 2 billion people, says Eduardo Mansur, director of the land and water division at the FAO. Assuming that happened, the restored soil could capture enough carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to keep average global temperatures from spiraling out of control. It’s not a permanent cure — more like a surgical dressing that protects the body and gives a wound time to heal.

Workshops help marginalized Louisiana residents become climate leaders
Yale Climate Connections 10-23-19

From the 9th ward of New Orleans to towns along the bayous, low-income communities of color face some of the greatest threats, but they are often excluded from conversations about climate policy. … The foundation offers a leadership development program called LEAD the Coast. Participants learn the science of global warming and how it is having local impacts. They discuss how race, power, and privilege influence policy, and they join a supportive community of new leaders. “It offers them a space to share information, sharpen skills, exchange knowledge, and build pathways to leadership roles and positions,” Chester says.

Nuclear Faces Climate-Fight Irrelevance Without Lower Cost
Bloomberg 10-7-19

“Any solution that saves less greenhouse gas emission per dollar, or does so slower, than it could have will stabilize the Earth’s climate less and later than it should have,” the report read. “Costly and slow options avoid less carbon per dollar and per year than cheaper and faster options could have, and thus make climate change worse than it should have been.” Nuclear power currently displaces one or two gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent a year that would be generated from natural gas or coal, according to Liu Zhenmin, a top United Nations official dealing with economic affairs. The trouble is that about two-thirds of those units are operating in industrial economies and are approaching the end of their lives, he said. “The cost competitiveness of nuclear power will remain an issue as renewable power has become increasingly more cost competitive,”

Nutritious foods have lower environmental impact than unhealthy foods
Science Daily 10-28-19

Widespread adaptation of healthier diets would markedly reduce the environmental impact of agriculture and food production. For the first time, researchers have tied the health impacts of foods to their overall environmental impact.

What Do Evangelical Christians Really think About Climate Change?
Newsweek 9-19-19

aAsubset of evangelicals are concerned about the environment, and are actively campaigning to protect it. By looking at the intersection of religion and politics, Wilkinson, found members of what is known as the 'care movement' believe humans are custodians of the planet—and it is our duty to protect God's creation. … Evangelical Christians uniformly believe that they should care for the environment and be good stewards. But for them that was really disconnected from concern about climate change. And I think that politics has a lot to do with it.

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WILDLIFE & THE ENVIRONMENT

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Daylight not rain most important for Africa 'green-up' phenomenon
PHYS ORG 10-25-19

New research shows that the amount of daylight plants receive is the biggest contributing factor to starting the iconic 'green-up' phenomenon in Africa—where the continent's plants and trees grow their leaves. … The research shows that preseason rainfall had no significant effect on the start of vegetation growth—with the exception of grasslands. This finding is backed up by other evidence that shows plants and trees across Africa greening ahead of rainfall. However, multiple factors influence the onset of dormancy at the end of the growth season. In addition to the length of daylight, factors such as temperature are key with higher temperatures postponing the onset of dormancy of some plants and trees.

Farmer experiments with more climate-friendly rice cultivation
Yale Climate Connections 10-24-19

Rice is often grown in flooded fields called paddies. When it’s farmed this way, it uses more water than any other crop in the world. But rice plants do not need to be submerged in water all season long. “If you keep rice watered at certain periods, then you don’t have to flood the field,” says Nazirahk Amen, an organic farmer in Takoma Park, Maryland. His rice grows much like a conventional vegetable crop: in rows, with drip irrigation. He says the goal is to keep the field saturated when the plants need the water the most. “And with that, we’ve been able to produce rice with about a third of the water that’s used in paddy production,” Amen says.

Theory explains biological reasons that force fish to move poleward
Science Daily 10-28-19

[The paper] explains that warming waters have less oxygen and, therefore, fish have difficulties breathing in such environments. In a catch 22-type situation, such warming, low-oxygen waters also increase fish's oxygen demands because their metabolism speeds up. So, what to do? Move to waters whose temperatures resemble those of their original habitats and that satisfy fish's oxygen needs. As the global sea surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.13°C per decade over the past 100 years, 'suitable' waters are more and more found towards the poles and at greater depths. This is how it works: fish's gills extract oxygen from the water to sustain the animal's body functions. As fish grow into adulthood their demand for oxygen increases because their body mass becomes larger. However, the surface area of the gills does not grow at the same pace as the rest of the body because it is two-dimensional, while the rest of the body is three-dimensional. The larger the fish, the smaller its surface area relative to the volume of its body.

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PROTESTS • EXTINCTION REBELLION • RESISTANCE

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Fridays for Future
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Demanding Seat at the Table, Youth Organizers Announce New Wave of Climate Strikes Ahead of UN Talks in Chile
Common Dreams 10-29-19

The next series of strikes will be held on Nov. 29—the day after Thanksgiving, known as Black Friday—and Dec 6. The goal of the actions is to influence those attending the 2019 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 25) from Dec. 2 to Dec. 13. Political figures will gather at the conference in Chile to negotiate the implementation of the 2015 Paris climate accord, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Every country on Earth except the United States is committed to the agreement; mere months after taking office in 2017, President Donald Trump vowed to ditch the deal as soon as he can. In a statement announcing the new strikes, Sophie Anderson, co-national coordinator of Extinction Rebellion Youth U.S., noted that "the United States is on track to be the only country not in the Paris agreement." "To protect our future," Anderson said, "we need the U.S. and youth to have a seat at the international table to ensure the climate crisis is addressed through ambitious solutions."

Three young black climate activists in Africa trying to save the world
Greenpeace 10-28-19

n 2016, when Elizabeth was 21, she decided to found the Green Generation Initiative. Her organisation nurtures young environmental enthusiasts by greening schools, delivering environmental education and running an “adopt a tree” campaign. “We have planted over 30,000 trees since we started this campaign in 2016 … Oladosu grew up in Nigeria, where she is a country ambassador for Fridays for Future, Earth Uprising and African Youth Climate Hub. “My journey into the environmental movement started when I gained admission to study agricultural economics. Though I had heard about climate change before, I only realised that we were living through a climate crisis when I started studying in an area which is one of the most vulnerable to climate change in Nigeria. … “I saw farmers and herdsmen fighting because their land is becoming more arid. It took me an extra year to finish studying because of the fighting. I saw communities who had never faced flooding having their farm lands swept away, and I lost my puppies during a heatwave unlike anyone had experienced before. … Vanessa grew up in Kampala, and got involved in activism in December 2018 after being bothered by the unusually high temperatures in her country. “I asked my uncle to tell me how hot it was 20 years earlier. He told me he thought it was much hotter now. “So I read more, and decided to go on strike in January 2019. It took me some days to build up the courage because I never went on strike for anything before No other students would join me because many were too afraid, so I asked my siblings. We made signs and striked together.” Vanessa thinks that we all have a responsibility to help our planet, and fight for our future.

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Greta Thunberg
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'The climate doesn't need awards': Greta Thunberg declines environmental prize: The teen activist implored politicians and people in power to ‘listen to the best available science’ in an Instagram post
The Guardian 10-29-19

he Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg has refused to accept an environmental award, saying the climate movement needed people in power to start to “listen” to “science” and not awards. The young climate activist, who has rallied millions to her “Fridays for Future” movement, was honoured at a Stockholm ceremony held by the Nordic Council, a regional body for inter-parliamentary cooperation. She had been nominated for her efforts by both Sweden and Norway and won the organisation’s annual environment prize. But after it was announced, a representative for Thunberg told the audience that she would not accept the award or the prize sum of 350,000 Danish kroner (about $52,000 or €46,800), the TT news agency reported. She addressed the decision in a post on Instagram from the United States.

Greta Thunberg Warns Vancouver: ‘Change Is Coming — Whether You Like It Or Not’
Daily Caller 10-25-19

Thunberg brought her growing celebrity to Vancouver — where debate continues over whether the Trans-Mountain pipeline that is supposed to bring petroleum from Alberta to the West Coast should be constructed. The teenage climate change promoter addressed a crowd of about 6,000 people in front of the Vancouver Art Gallery. Before she spoke, a number of First Nations activists addressed the crowd, attempting to link Native land claims with global warming anxiety. “The people in power are still acting as if there was no tomorrow,”

School strike week 62 Vancouver, BC. With Severn Cullis-Suzuki!
Police say 15 000 people. #climatestrike #fridaysforfuture #schoolstrike4climate pic.twitter.com/9gg3E17HLF

— Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) October 25, 2019


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Robbie Williams condemns Greta Thunberg critics: 'Let her be'
Independent10-28-19

“No matter what you think of Greta or her speech, her tone or her facial expressions, her anger, her passion, she should be allowed to do that without reproach,” Williams told the magazine. “And comments from unempathetic c***s are not going to help the young girl’s psyche, whichever way you lean on the climate.”

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Extinction Rebellion
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JOIN XR USA: on their website
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XR NEWSLETTERS & EVENTS: on their website
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XR USA: on YOUTUBE
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NEW XR TRUTH TELLER SITE: on TRUTH TELLER.LIFE
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“Calling all concerned Citizens: Tell the world what you know”

Humanity has the know-how to avert catastrophic climate and ecological breakdown. Yet we're failing to heed the scientific warnings and put them in place. Why aren't we adopting emergency measures the world over? And what are the near-term consequences of inaction? Do you know something that would help reveal what's really going on?



Extinction Rebellion: Man climbs on top of plane in climate protest
BBC 10-10-19

James Brown, who is visually impaired, filmed himself clinging to the fuselage as he streamed a live message online. Metropolitan Police Commissioner Dame Cressida Dick described the action as "reckless, stupid and dangerous". About 50 arrests were made at the airport. Another man refused to sit in his seat, delaying a flight by nearly two hours. Both men had bought flight tickets and passed through airport security. On the fourth day of climate change protests, disruption in the UK centred on London City Airport.

Excellent read…

Extinction Rebellion’s car-free streets showcase the possibility of a beautiful, safe and green future
The Conversation 10-16-19

There are over 9,000 extra deaths a year in London due to illegal air toxicity, much of which is from road transport. But some cities have created more car-free, healthy and safe places. Copenhagen and Amsterdam are known for their amazing cycling culture. Curitiba, in Brazil, has an amazing bus transit system that functions like a subway network. Helsinki has committed to going car-free as soon as possible. Tokyo has some of the lowest levels of car ownership in the world. And Venice hasn’t seen a car in its history. … Once public transport was working properly, diesel and petrol cars were banned in urban areas. The UK went from a car owning nation, with about 40m cars, to around a million – in just five years. The old ones were sent back to the corporations that made them under new circular economy legislation. Free electric shared taxis were introduced for people with mobility issues and shared electric mini-buses for long distances or rural connections.

Extinction Rebellion protests cost Met police £37m so far
The Guardian 10-22-19

At a press briefing, Dick said the force was so stretched officers did not see their families for days. About 21,000 officers had been placed on 12-hour shifts, and one had told the commissioner they worked 45 hours over three days. Extinction Rebellion has said it is carrying out a campaign of civil disobedience to force radical reforms to address the climate emergency, with actions including prolonged disruption at multiple sites across the capital. Dick said: “We are certainly at a point where I would say to Extinction Rebellion, this is placing a horrendous strain on London and on the Met. “We have to, whatever the cause, stop very serious disruption when it is unlawful, which it most patently is.”

'I gave up a six-figure salary to join Extinction Rebellion'
BBC 10-25-19

Andrew Medhurst was a high-flyer. He earned a six-figure salary and had worked all over the world for the likes of Lloyds Bank and HSBC. But he gave it all up to join Extinction Rebellion. It was around Christmas last year when he suddenly snapped. He was designing pension plan policies aimed at encouraging young people to put money away for the future. But after reading up on climate change, and as he reflected on the scorching summer of 2018, the 53-year-old came to the conclusion that pension schemes "looked almost fraudulent" because the effects of global warming threatened the future those young people were saving for.

Extinction Rebellion Is Creating a New Narrative of the Climate Crisis
NYT 10-28-19

The movement’s first demand — to declare a climate emergency — was met by the British Parliament on May 1, and by 261 local councils to date. Extinction Rebellion has stimulated a debate about climate chaos and wildlife destruction that for decades was pushed back on the political agenda. But it is one thing to formally declare an emergency, and quite another to do something about it. In 2008, watching a series of “peak oil” documentary films, I had what writer Rob Hopkins calls “The End of Suburbia” moment. I woke up to see that everything, including the toothbrush I used and the clothes I wore, was made of oil. I realized I knew nothing about energy extraction, financial markets or industrial agriculture. I had only learned a narrow history of civilization, not the consequences it brought in its wake, nor the mechanics beneath its glamorous surface. … Nonviolent direct action is effective because you are showing that you are willing to put your body and your liberty on the line. You are standing by your words. Who you are matters, what you say matters. And you are not alone in saying it.

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CLIMATE STUDIES

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Old but very relevant…

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming
Science Mag 11-9-16

Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

Enhanced glacial discharge from the eastern Antarctic Peninsula since the 1700s associated with a positive Southern Annular Mode
Nature 10-24-19

The Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet is currently experiencing sustained and accelerating loss of ice. Determining when these changes were initiated and identifying the main drivers is hampered by the short instrumental record (1992 to present). Here we present a 6,250 year record of glacial discharge based on the oxygen isotope composition of diatoms. … We argue that a positive SAM drove stronger westerly winds, atmospheric warming and surface ablation on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula whilst simultaneously entraining more warm water into the Weddell Gyre, potentially increasing melting on the undersides of ice shelves. A possible implication of our data is that ice shelves in this region have been thinning for at least ~300 years, potentially predisposing them to collapse under intensified anthropogenic warming.

New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding
Nature 10-29-10

Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA’s SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show – employing CoastalDEM—that 190 M people (150–250 M, 90% CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 250 M below 1 m.

Extent of human encroachment into world's protected areas revealed
Science Daily 10-28-19

The largest study yet to compare protected with 'matched' unprotected land finds 'significantly higher' increases in human pressure -- primarily through agriculture -- in protected areas across the tropics. Researchers argue that efforts to increase coverage may not help save wildlife unless protecting land 'on paper' is backed up by funding and local community engagement.

Rapid Sea-Level Rise “Threat Multipliers” to Coastlines, Nuclear Power Plants, and Mega-Cities
Paul Beckwith 10-29-19

The military worries about rapid climate system change as being a “threat multiplier”. As climate caused catastrophes worsen, risks to nuclear power plants, spent radioactive fuel storage, and the power grid proportionately increase. • We’ve already had nuclear power plants narrowly missing direct hits by massive hurricanes, specifically in Florida in the last few years. • We had to throttle down power output from nuclear plants using river cooling water during heat waves, due to high water temperatures, or low water levels. The biggest risk going forward is to coastal nuclear plants being swamped by rapid sea level rise.


[video: https://youtu.be/W4XYX17qSGE]
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Global Warnings

QMS: Time to disconnect greed from the welfare of earth, if survival means anything. I like trees.

Paul Beckwith: "I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions."

Kevin Hester: "There is no past analogue for the rapidity of what we are baring witness to. There has been a flood of articles ... 2C is no longer attainable and that we are heading for dangerous climate change"

Magi Amma: We need to turn on a dime at mach nine!

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Equivalencies:
• 1 gigatonne = 1 billion tons
• 1 gigatonne Carbon = 3.67 gigatonnes CO2
• 1 part per million (ppm) of atmospheric CO2 = 7.81 gigatonnes CO2
• 1 part per million of atmospheric carbon = 2.13 gigatonnes of carbon

Enjoy!