As a heat wave grips the west --

This diary was prompted by a Grist piece: As heat wave grips Western states, officials warn of blackouts.

So okay let's dig in:

California has already seen historical heat this week, fueling wildfires that have spurred evacuations and closed a section of Interstate 5. Temperatures are expected to hit 115 degrees Fahrenheit across the southern part of the state this weekend, breaking record temperatures. According to the National Weather Service, excessive heat warnings are already in effect in central Great Basin states such as California, Utah, and Idaho. California Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s electric grid, said it will likely see the most demand for power on Labor Day and is asking residents to conserve energy to prevent more drastic measures like rotating blackouts.

“Consumers are urged to reduce energy use from 4-9 p.m. when the system is most stressed because demand for electricity remains high and there is less solar energy available,” the operator said in a statement. It’s also asking residents not to charge electric vehicles, which are growing in popularity as the state phases out gas-powered cars, during peak hours.

1) First off, it's kind of amusing that there's a brush fire around Castaic. I had no idea there was still brush out that way, Castaic being at the north end of Los Angeles County in California (Google Maps should tell you more). The standard for the global warming West (outside of coastal areas from the Monterey Bay northward) is the Lower Desert. As massive metropoli continue to steal water from increasingly endangered sources, the landscapes are all going to end up looking like the Chocolate Mountains or some approximation thereof. I doubt this transformation of California, at least, will put any sort of dent in ever-escalating real estate prices. At some point the water supplies will dry up altogether and portions of the inland Southwest will merely have to leave. Maybe that will make housing cheaper.

Now, where it's still green, you've got the Rum Creek Fire, which burns in a nice wilderness area and which spreads smoke across Josephine and Jackson counties in Oregon. I am currently "out of town" for the health of my lungs.

2) Secondly, the big California news is that the California legislature has passed "climate change legislation." The whole thing will fail because it is, essentially, bourgeois. They're going to maintain an exploitative economy while making their energy infrastructure "eco-friendly." That's very California. You have a bunch of people whose main concern in life is that their 3bd 2ba is worth $1.1 million "taking the lead" on climate change. We will at least need a shut-off point for the world's oil and coal industries. But even despite this you have to love the petroleum industry's response to the California legislation:

Slagle, of the Western States Petroleum Association, said the governor’s approach was flawed and ignores the reality of the grid’s volatile reliability.

“The governor’s ‘climate package’ depends on energy reliability, so it is inconsistent that on one hand he is aggressively gutting energy reliability and affordability in California and on the other he is pushing actions like this to help try to maintain the grid,” he added.

Not to worry, though. Thanks to climate change, energy reliability and affordability will be destroyed long before "eco-friendly" measures do anything harmful to them. If they're asking people not to charge their electric vehicles during peak usage hours, what was the point again?

3) 115 is painfully hot. But we're just getting started. I remember, in a long-ago search of the literature, a piece in Nature magazine, "The Projected Timing of Climate Departure from Recent Variability." You really have to search hard to find out about this stuff, including using Sci-Hub and Z-Library. When you actually find it you'll see that the wording of this piece is somewhat opaque. But, as far as I can decipher it, the point of the article, Mora et al. (2013), is that at some point the seasons will cease to matter because it will just be hot all the time, and the trick is in predicting that point. Sure, there have been refinements between 2013 and now. But the main question to be answered is still the same: "you okay with that, dog?"

BONUS COVERAGE: from the Facebook page of Jeffrey St Clair, from Wednesday:

305400332_10160671168196518_6870759736575599673_n_0.jpg

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usefewersyllables's picture

@humphrey

when we had the ability and means to travel more, my wife and I found ourselves in the Valley of the Kings in Egypt, on a July day when it officially hit 55degC/133degF (2012, about a year after the Tahrir Square Revolution).

Seriously: it was so far beyond painful that I can't even begin to describe it. I hope that that is the last time I ever have to experience it... 50degC is skin-burn temperature, and you couldn't touch any metal in the sun without getting second-degree burns. Even the street vendors had taken cover from the heat- and *nothing* stops them.

What is coming for us is not going to be pleasant.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaHEusBG20c width:400 height:300]

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Twice bitten, permanently shy.

Everyone is bundled up

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Cassiodorus's picture

@gjohnsit how to explain Las Vegas and Phoenix?

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'French theory is a product of US cultural imperialism." -- Gabriel Rockhill

usefewersyllables's picture

@Cassiodorus

they aren’t very good at it? Just spitballing here, mind you…

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Twice bitten, permanently shy.