This has never happened before in the history of America

It seems amazing that such a disliked candidate can be dominating the polls.
By winning South Carolina and New Hampshire, and leading in all Super Tuesday states, it appears that Trump will be the GOP nominee.

But it isn't just Trump. Hillary is the leading Democratic candidate, and her favorability rating isn't much better.
That's only a couple points difference from Trump and going the wrong way.

Yes, Hillary is liked by Democrats, but independents hate her guts.

Between March 2015 and December, Clinton's net favorability -- those viewing her favorably minus those viewing her unfavorably -- sank from plus-3 among all voters to negative-8, an 11-point change. But among independents, that figure went from +4 to -27, a swing of 31 points.

With Democratic turnout down by a third from 2008, the loss of the independents is a big deal.
And less face it, 6 months of Republican attack ads coming up pretty much preclude Hillary from changing these numbers much.

It occurred to me that unless Sanders really picks up momentum starting March 2, that the November election will feature two candidates that a vast majority of people dislike. So I was wondering, has any president ever started out with a negative favorability rating on Day One?

You know what the answer is: No. It's never happened before.
At least not since modern polling started right after WWII.
It probably happened in the late 19th Century, but there were no polls to back up that opinion.

So here is the Gallup polls. You'll notice that Ike seems to be an exception, but according to Pew (and all of the rest of Ike's Gallup polls) that one can be dismissed as an outlier.

You have to ask an important: what does it mean to American democracy that the top two candidates are so disliked?
You generally only see this in 3rd world countries with corrupt oligarchies.
It's a sign of a democracy in trouble. It's a sign of a broken political system.
It is usually followed by extremely low voter turnout, and then eventually political violence.

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Unabashed Liberal's picture

a broken political system (but that's a topic for another day).

Seriously, from all that we've heard since Trump won SC, we're convinced that NOW the Republican Establishment will step in to stop his march to the nomination.

As I've mentioned earlier, the mainstream print media has (as a proxy) been trying to accomplish this since late summer--and they are very candid about it on 'satellite' radio. (I'm not sure that they can be that frank on Cable News Channels, though.)

Anyhoo, on all the network Sunday Talk Shows that I've heard today, the talking heads mostly agreed that the Republican Establishment will finally act, even if it means a brokered convention. Listening to a political program that airs out of Chicago a while ago, they seem to buy into this theory, as well. They're even placing their bets that 'the Donald' might opt to make a third party run, if Repubs scr*w him over, somehow. (I'm not so sure I believe that he wants the job that much, frankly. But, who knows?)

Your post echos what I've been hearing about FSC's weakness (this time around) with Independent voters.

Whether or not she can win (against Trump or Rubio or Kasich) may partly depend upon 'how turned off' the majority of Bernie supporters are by her, in general. I expect there to be some success at persuading younger voters (millennials) to stay in the fold, if Bernie doesn't get the nomination, and throws his support to FSC.

Older activists--well, that's anybody's guess. Suspect some will go Green, while others will 'hold their noses,' and vote for her.

Hey, nice graphics. I always enjoy the horse race, when the contests start getting close.


"If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went."--Will Rogers
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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.


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Moments after the first evidence of Bush’s dismal finish began trickling in, however, Iraqis roared with glee as spontaneous festivities erupted across the country.

Observers were stunned to see Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds dancing together in the streets, putting aside their enmity to celebrate an outcome that they never dreamed possible.

“You must understand, we Iraqis have been living with the fear of a third Bush Presidency for months now,” Sabah al-Alousi, a Baghdad shoemaker, said. “Now we can begin to think about a future, for ourselves and our families.”

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shaharazade's picture

I was cooking dinner and listening to election results on npr, which I can't stand but was the only radio coverage available. I laughed out loud when some Republican who worked on Jeb's campaign got all tragic because Jeb is such a brilliant intellectual with such a beautiful brain. Then they broadcast Jeb's dropping out speech. That was hilarious also. Unlike the Iraqis however I can't begin to think of a future for me or my family other laying low and hoping the by-partisan rat bastards don't really screw us and we can keep our house, my granddaughter can be spared indentured servitude via being in school and we all stay healthy or die quick if we get sick. Then there is the environment which even in supposedly green Democratic Oregon is really messed up.

Too bad for the Iraqis that HRC is a bad ass psycho killer or that Trump is so crazy that god knows what he would do to entertain himself. The electoral political system is rigged and both sides do not bother to even create the illusion of democratic elections. If it's down to HRC or Trump I'd be hard pressed as to which I would vote for. Write in Bernie? It's not like the down ticket Democrat's in my state are any better, they are as corrupt, corporate and as arrogant as HRC. I will however vote as not voting is exactly what they thrive on.

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