Guy McPherson and Near Term Extinction

Sorry that I have not been around. I am battling a severe episode of ME/CFS.

This won't be much of an essay, but I have discovered another climate scientist who is stating that we have passed the point of no return. I have been noticing that I discover a new scientist/activist who explains we are past the point of controlling climate change about every eight weeks.

I am wondering it any of you know about Guy McPherson, formerly of the University of Arizona. If so, chime in with your information/impressions.

Here is the thing: until now I have not found someone who is willing to put a date on collapse/human extinction.

I’m not suggesting all humans will die within days after the ongoing collapse of industrial civilization is complete. Rather, that process is likely to require months, or perhaps a few years. But it’s difficult for me to envision Earth with humans in 2030, notwithstanding the IPCC’s fantasy technology./blockquote>

http://guymcpherson.com/2015/07/near-term-habitat-loss-for-humans/

Of the new things I've learned from McPherson's writing, this is what sticks in my mind: if industrialized civilization were to cease tomorrow morning, global warming would accelerate because the particulate cover in the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning is creating a cooling canopy. Once that canopy is removed, the heating will accelerate more rapidly.

I have not had time to study his website or essays as I normally would, so please forgive me.

He does not project defeatism, but rather repeats that we all must live as ethically as possible no matter what the projected results, something I have no difficulty with as I assimilated this notion a long time ago.

Fifteen years left. No one has had the courage to say that quite so bluntly. It isn't in his headlines. I had to dig around for it.

15

I am most interested in what all of you think about what he has to say.

EDIT

I've checked my raw diary and the blockquote ends after the two sentences ending in "fantasy technology" so I don't know why my part is still inside the blue box quote.

Anyway, my shock/realization is not about the notion that we are beyond the tipping point; it is about the 15 short years to human extinction.

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I have been enjoying my own neurological relapse of late, so you have my understanding as well as sympathies.

Wendy Davis has recently both blessed as well as innundated us with a long and tremendously dense three-part series on climate change in which - somewhere - the issue you have brought up is covered. If you have the energy, you may peruse her essays for further confirmation that we have indeed already passed the climate change tipping point no matter what we do.

The link below is to Part I of her series:

http://caucus99percent.com/content/climate-change-tipping-point-realitie...

dancingrabbit

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Blue Dragon's picture

I read them. Of course my brain is terribly foggy from CFS, but I got the overall drift.

Still, my surprise was the 15 year extinction point. I really thought this was going to take a bit longer. . .

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May the dolphins, whales and furry things inherit the world. Humans, unless we do an about face, have just about proven we don't deserve this beautiful planet.

Cassiodorus's picture

Guy McPherson is an overreaction to the climate scientists' lack of interest in real society. Instead of asking "what form would world society have to take in order to survive climate change?", climate scientists have so far asked "how little do I have to ask of the Powers That Be before we can get some climate legislation that looks good enough to make people suspect it might do something?" This has caused the climate scientists to "bridge the gap" (in Sense-Making terms) by underestimating the extent and power of climate change while at the same time engaging some sort of groupthink about fashionable solutions to the problem. The Guy McPhersons of the world see this garbage and tell us, "we're doomed." A better way is to critique science in the way that has been done by the philosopher Isabelle Stengers. Her most recent one, "In Catastrophic Times," is pretty good, although dense reading. Stengers has been inspired by Gilles Deleuze and Bruno Latour, so there's a style situation with her writing.

Naomi Klein is an improvement upon the Guy McPherson overreaction. Klein's inspiration is to argue that "we need a popular movement to deal with climate change, one which will finger capitalism as the culprit in the whole affair." Unfortunately, Klein doesn't go much further than this inspiration. Perhaps the scientists and the movement can join forces?

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

Blue Dragon's picture

On the contrary, he is of the mind 'you can do little, but do it' (can't remember original version, but we all know it subconsciously).

My shock/realization was not that we have passed point of no return, but the 15 years he suggests till the end of humans. That's not the beginning of the end. Rather it is the extinction point.

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May the dolphins, whales and furry things inherit the world. Humans, unless we do an about face, have just about proven we don't deserve this beautiful planet.

Cassiodorus's picture

= "we're doomed."

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

Blue Dragon's picture

McPherson himself is still trying to communicate and spread awareness.

And he states we all should do the same.

So are you reacting to my imprecise language or what?

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Cassiodorus's picture

How would you do it?

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

Blue Dragon's picture

I posted this to see what you guys thought.

It seems to me that he is not alone as I click around in his sources.

I was assuming the predictions for mid 21st century were relatively accurate.

He has a lot of info supporting his conclusions.

And one if his main points is that a. science is inherently conservative and b. those who agree with him cannot break through the media machine

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May the dolphins, whales and furry things inherit the world. Humans, unless we do an about face, have just about proven we don't deserve this beautiful planet.

Cassiodorus's picture

The climate scientists have completely miscarried the debate about climate change. The problem is not that they've assembled a lot of facts -- but rather that the same knowledge that could extrapolate climate change from Antarctic ice cores isn't what tells capitalist world-society what to do about its own fossil-fueled energy consumption habits. People treat these guys like gods because they have half the picture.

http://monthlyreview.org/2013/02/01/james-hansen-and-the-climate-change-...

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

Blue Dragon's picture

I will read the review, but not tonight.

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wendy davis's picture

...that "we need a popular movement to deal with climate change, one which will finger capitalism as the culprit in the whole affair." She couched her words quite carefully, as far as I can tell, for instance here:

"Third, at numerous
points in Klein’s book the root issue is not capitalism as such nor an extractivist
ideology but rather capitalism’s latest, neo-liberal variant, characterized by
extreme wealth polarization and extensive deregulation.
The blurred character of this diagnosis is, I submit, a critical weakness in
Klein’s argument, because each of these three diagnoses points to different
remedies. If the root issue is neo-liberalism, the solution is surely a reassertion
of intelligent government regulation. If the problem is extractivism, some kind
of cultural transformation is needed. If the problem is the basic structure of
capitalism itself, a far more radical change is called for. Indeed, in this case, reli-
ance on the more moderate, reformist strategy focused on regulation or culture
would be highly irresponsible, as time is so terribly short if we want to avoid
the 2°Celsius tipping point’.”

Wish I had anything to add, blue dragon, but opinions and timing are varied, but at this point we have to factor in the hideous methane coming from Porter Ranch. Some say that methane is 85 more potent than CO2 in terms of GHGes.

I dunno. for the time being the largest danger seems to be the rise of oceans. Next, I dunno. But I'm more concerned about your neurological condition, and may update my 'spices as medicines' section of my recent food post to give a few natural ideas you might weigh. I'm swamped at eh moment trying to finish my part II compromised NGOs and brands, and may divert to a recent anti-Russian psyop. best, wd

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Blue Dragon's picture

Klein is coming back here (my university) in two months. I am angling for some time semi alone with her, but while for the last visit, I was the core organizer, for this visit, we are in the depths of bureaucratic hell and those bureaucrats don't seem to believe I/we have a relationship with her that she will remember.

I have often wondered if she is anticapitalist at core. Her parents are. I thought of her work in The Shock Doctrine as carefully limited to appeal to the widest audience and point out the deepest devils.

Brain fog is a major symptom of CFS. I compensate quite well with my extra brain cells except when in a extreme flare up like right now. I believe spices are healing.

I haven't read her new book although it has been sitting on my shelf for over a year. I will need to before she comes or at least scan. There is a matching film already.

I like McPherson the more I look at his stuff. No quitter. He repeats and repeats the value of each life and the miracle that life is for each organism.

He also hasn't slept in over a decade, i.e. since he realized that the biosphere is about to die within his lifetime.

He left his high paid professorship and moved to the edges of civilization, setting up an off the grid lifestyle.

I think many of us with environmental illnesses and immune system problems are simply reflecting the state of mother earth. We are canaries but still ignored.

A spiritual friend insists that when the world changes, I will be far, far better physically.

As a young radical, I never would have believed we would ruin the biosphere absent nuclear war. I am a baby boomer, Cold War nightmares were the staple of my youth. To have lived to see something conceivably worse. . .well, I just was too much of a natural optimist.

15 years!!! I have been worried about surviving extreme capitalism into old age. I need not have if this is true.

Capitalism certainly can't be redeemed. McPherson sees civilization itself as the culprit, not that he absolves capitalism, but civilization has lead us here one way or another.

I have often thought 7 billion people just cooking their supper should be enough to devastate ecosystem.

BD

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Pluto's Republic's picture

The first time I was exposed to the idea of climate science, a friend had loaned me a copy of Gaia by James Locklove. As far as I know, his may have been the first scientist to popularize the topic, some 50 years ago. Lovelock is a scientist/philosopher, which is a perspective that resonates with me. He introduced into the earth sciences the concept of Gaia — a theory that the planet is a giant, self-regulating, self-healing, and evolving organism. All life in this region of space, lives, evolves, and becomes extinct on the Gaia host organism.

My brain says Gaia is a very powerful theory. Every piece of evidence that science has about the physical history of the planet supports it. Gaia gets catastrophically damaged; Gaia heals itself; species including hominoids, come and go over time.

Homo sapiens is a physically evolving species, but the species is not yet consciously sentient and cannot adapt/evolve collectively. The leading cause of extinction is the failure to quickly adapt/evolve to a changing environment.

A good example of a highly adaptive hominoid species is Homo erectus. They stood as tall as modern Homo sapiens with similar proportions and large brains. They used technologies, such as fire, and built complex tools. It appears that they migrated through much of the world and developed cultures that cooperated and showed empathy.

We know Homo erectus evolved rapidly as a species because they thrived for at least two million years, all the while adapting to some horrific environmental changes. They only disappeared about 50,000 years ago, when Homo sapiens were just beginning to walk out of Africa. For a time, both species shared the planet, but Home erectus already had colonized themselves elsewhere on the planet.

The point is Homo erectus had an extraordinarily long run as a species :: two million years adapting through some horrific environmental changes. That's ten times longer than Homo sapiens have existed, yet they may have already inflicted global-level environmental chaos upon themselves due to the species unevolved awareness.

Anyway….. I digress.

My thinking is aligned to that of James Locklove. Ny only question when I finished Gaia was :: "Which parts of earth offer the best chance for adaptive survival?" and "Let's get there before the gates slam shut."

Now, 96 years old, Lovelock still says the deadline is between 2030 and 2040. At that point, the de-population will begin. He has always thought recycling and greening was a good thing to do, but it would not change the outcome of warming. The tipping had already passed before he brought climate change into public awareness.

He often appears to be a critic of climate change remedies, but to me he is giving the best advice possible based on practical reality :: adapt or die. In a recent interview, he clarified yet again:

"After all this trying and failing [at climate change policies], perhaps it is time to consider that global warming is The Plan. It really doesn't matter what the cause is. (The big fight over whether climate change is caused by human activity is ultimately irrelevant. Some want settled science to declare it human-caused, because that suggests it can be "human-fixed. That's unlikely with available technologies. Others believe that ambitious environmental remedies will bring little but ongoing economic hardship to the table. In any event, no one will live long enough to see the outcome.) Is there a better approach?"

James Lovelock, the environmentalist and scientist who dedicated his life to climate change, gave us the Gaia hypothesis in the 1970s. He takes a long view of Earth's future, and sees the planet as not just a rock, but a complex, self-regulating organism geared to the long-term sustenance of life. Thus, if there are too many people for the Earth to support, which forces the very rapid extinction of other planetary species, Gaia – Earth – will find a way to get rid of the excess, and carry on.

That's the way nature works. Preserving the diversity of life is the first priority because diversity is the talent pool of mutations necessary for life to adapt, survive, and evolve into a state of sentience that is useful to the Universe.

Decades ago, Lovelock predicted that billions would be wiped out by floods, drought and famine by 2040. He is more circumspect about that date these days, but he has not changed his underlying belief that the consequences of global warming will catch up with us eventually. His conviction that humans are incapable of reversing them – and that it is in any case too late to try – is also unaltered.

Lovelock's concern is less with the survival of humanity than with the continuation of life itself. Against that imperative, the decimation of nations is almost inconsequential to him. "You know, I look with a great deal of equanimity on some sort of happening – not too rapid – that reduces our population down to about a billion," he says, five minutes into our meeting. "I think the Earth would be happier ... A population in England of five or 10 million? Yes, I think that sounds about right." To him, even the prospect of nuclear holocaust has its upside. "The civilisations of the northern hemisphere would be utterly destroyed, no doubt about it," he says, "but it would give life elsewhere a chance to recover. I think actually that Gaia might heave a sigh of relief."

There's a lot to regret. Lovelock says the vast sums of money being invested in renewable energy would be much better spent on strategies designed to help us migrate and survive. Critical amounts of time have been wasted, while adaptive strategies have not even been addressed, due to hubris, greed, and denial. So goeth Homo sapiens, along with their status quo.

He contends that the end of the world as we know it began in 1712, the year the Devonshire blacksmith Thomas Newcomen invented the coal-powered steam engine. It was the first time that stored solar energy had been harnessed in any serious way, with effects that now "grip us and our world in a series of unstoppable events. We are like the sorcerer's apprentice, trapped in the consequences of our meddling". Newcomen's discovery set in train more than just the era of industrial development. It also marked the start of a new geological epoch, the "Anthropocene", the most significant characteristic of which, Lovelock believes, has been the emergence of "an entirely new form of evolution" that is one million times faster than the old process of Darwinian natural selection.

He suggests now that we embrace the ongoing global shift towards urban living, which futurist architects like Paolo Soleri promote as the ideal earth-sharing set-up. Lovelock says moving humans to high density zones allows Gaia to heal the environment more efficiently. High density zones are far more efficient, generally, they offer survival when the full impact of global warming hits. The regions beyond the cities, rural areas, would then be left to Gaia to regulate for herself. It is far easier to regulate the climate of cities, Lovelock insists, than our current strategy of attempting to control the temperature of an entire planet. Homo sapiens have not developed planetary-level technologies, in any event. They are still fully invested at the "weapons" stage of scientific thinking.

___________________________
http://www.livescience.com/41048-facts-about-homo-erectus.html

http://europe.newsweek.com/james-lovelock-saving-planet-foolish-romantic...

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The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Blue Dragon's picture

I've been reading Lovelock since the beginning. His last book is around my house somewhere. One of my signatures at orange satan used the term, Gaia, for which I got some negative feedback.

I was truly surprised by the 2030 date from McPherson, not as a beginning, but as an end point for humans and not because we can't adapt in some way but because the life we depend on cannot.

As an alternative to the reality in Cameron's Avatar, human extinction is not the worst thing I have ever heard of. Imagine neoliberalism colonizing space as much of our science fiction does? That is definitely a worse outcome. First killing Gaia, then moving off to other habitable planets and killing them. Horror of horrors.

Can the dolphins and whales survive +4C? Not if the oceans can't.

Gaia is real to me. Lovelock's concept is not mystical as I am sure you know, but Gaia's investment in herself, in life of some sort, is clear. Human life=civilization looks like a failed experiment.

Gaia, to me, has a mystical element in the sense that her consciousness is not human consciousness but it 'works' for lack of a better word. For me, there is something beyond human consciousness, i.e. the rational self.

Mass extinction means a huge blow to diversity. Gaia could have done fine without just one species: the human one.

Killing the biosphere is as serious as it gets, but you and Lovelock are right: if Gaia reduces/eliminates us, she may be able to heal. Other creatures may be able to live here. They would be forever changed by the mass extinction.

You would have thought we could have learned from the reality of dinosaurs.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6l0ey0fxHE]

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wendy davis's picture

I updated the 'spices as medicines' section with you in mind. It's about four paragraphs from the top in this food diary i'd posted a bit ago. you might just want to googledy/bing any combination of terms that makes sense to you, see what might help. best, wd

oh, and can you tell me what 'messages' are? i saw a thingie in the upper right page corner noting that for the first time this a.m., and i don't have a clue what to do about the messages (assuming they're for me).

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are our private messaging system. Click the "Message" link in the banner and it will take you to your private message queue, select the message you want to read by clicking the "Subject" link, you can also reply to the message. You can also send a private message to any member.

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Blue Dragon's picture

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May the dolphins, whales and furry things inherit the world. Humans, unless we do an about face, have just about proven we don't deserve this beautiful planet.

Blue Dragon's picture

Scientists are self censoring their data to remove the worst of their findings.

[video:https://youtu.be/NmL4t8TclGU]

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Pluto's Republic's picture

…for inconvenient truths, HERE.

Dying on a cross for someone else's sins is the dumbest thing an enlightened being can do.

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____________________

The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
hecate's picture

true creator of the Gaia hypothesis was Lynn Margulis. James Lovelock then jumped on the bandwagon, and he hasn't seemed since been able to even once shut his mouth.

Interestingly, Margulis, who first understood the planet as a single, living, breathing, conscious organism, never had a doom-out frenzy (which, in these Science Man days, is simply a barely less knuckle-dragging version of when the regligiosities said "god" would imminently wreck the world).

What Margulis understood—and Lovelock, especially as he moves into his advanced age, does not—is that Gaia is beyond the understanding of human beings. And that, therefore, even such well-meaning efforts as tracing and tracking and screaming about climate change, is to, Gaia, but amusement. She'll do what she wilt. And nothing you, human, can or will do, will stop her.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Du9pCalSCU]

As for "industrial civilization," of course it is over. Money, cities, jobs—the three pillars of wrongness, they are all, as we speak, collapsing. This is all to the good.

The future humans, they are laughing, in a compassionate way, as they view back in time to the near-our-time woman, standing on the rubble of New York City, holding a thin gold bar, beseechingly, upraised, in her hands.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzvylMnCe3k]

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