Hey! Good Evening!

This evening's music features blues guitarist and harmonica player Kenny Neal. Enjoy!

“I never yet saw an instance of one of two disputants convincing the other by argument.”

-- Thomas Jefferson

News and Opinion

US National Security Experts: Give Peace in Ukraine a Chance

On May 16, 2023, TheNew York Times published a full-page advertisement signed by 15 U.S. national security experts about the war in Ukraine. It was headed “The U.S. Should Be a Force for Peace in the World,” and was drafted by the Eisenhower Media Network.

While condemning Russia’s invasion, the statement provides a more objective account of the crisis in Ukraine than the U.S. government or The New York Times has previously presented to the public, including the disastrous U.S. role in NATO expansion, the warnings ignored by successive U.S. administrations, and the escalating tensions that ultimately led to war.

The statement calls the war an “unmitigated disaster,” and urges President Joe Biden and Congress “to end the war speedily through diplomacy, especially given the dangers of military escalation that could spiral out of control.”

This call for diplomacy by wise, experienced former insiders—U.S. diplomats, military officers, and civilian officials—would have been a welcome intervention on any one of the past 442 days of this war. Yet their appeal now comes at an especially critical moment in the war.

On May 10, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he is delaying Ukraine’s long-awaited “spring offensive” to avoid “unacceptable” losses to Ukrainian forces. Western policy has repeatedly put Zelenskyy in near-impossible positions, caught between the need to show signs of progress on the battlefield to justify further Western support and arms deliveries and, on the other hand, the shocking human cost of continued war represented by the fresh graveyards where tens of thousands of Ukrainians now lie buried.

It is not clear how a delay in the planned Ukrainian counter-attack would prevent it leading to unacceptable Ukrainian losses when it finally occurs, unless the delay in fact leads to scaling back and calling off many of the operations that have been planned. Zelenskyy appears to be reaching a limit in terms of how many more of his people he is willing to sacrifice to satisfy Western demands for signs of military progress to hold together the Western alliance and maintain the flow of weapons and money to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy’s predicament is certainly the fault of Russia’s invasion, but also of his April 2022 deal with the devil in the shape of then-U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Johnson promised Zelenskyy that the U.K. and the “collective West” were “in it for the long run” and would back him to recover all of Ukraine’s former territory, just as long as Ukraine stopped negotiating with Russia.

Johnson was never in a position to fulfill that promise and, since he was forced to resign as prime minister, he has endorsed a Russian withdrawal only from the territory it invaded since February 2022, not a return to pre-2014 borders. Yet that compromise was exactly what he talked Zelenskyy out of agreeing to in April 2022, when most of the war’s dead were still alive and the framework of a peace agreement was on the table at diplomatic talks in Turkey.

Zelenskyy has tried desperately to hold his Western backers to Johnson’s overblown promise. But short of direct U.S. and NATO military intervention, it seems that no quantity of Western weapons can decisively break the stalemate in what has degenerated into a brutal war of attrition, fought mainly by artillery and trench and urban warfare.

An American general bragged that the West has supplied Ukraine with 600 different weapons systems, but this itself creates problems. For example, the different 105 mm guns sent by the U.K., France, Germany, and the U.S. all use different shells. And each time heavy losses force Ukraine to re-form survivors into new units, many of them have to be retrained on weapons and equipment they’ve never used before.

Despite U.S. deliveries of at least six types of anti-aircraft missiles—Stinger, NASAMS, Hawk, Rim-7, Avenger, and at least one Patriot missile battery—a leaked Pentagon document revealed that Ukraine’s Russian-built S-300 and Buk anti-aircraft systems still make up almost 90% of its main air defenses. NATO countries have searched their weapons stockpiles for all the missiles they can provide for those systems, but Ukraine has nearly exhausted those supplies, leaving its forces newly vulnerable to Russian air strikes just as it prepares to launch its new counter-attack.

Since at least June 2022, Biden and other U.S. officials have acknowledged that the war must end in a diplomatic settlement, and have insisted that they are arming Ukraine to put it “in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.” Until now, they have claimed that each new weapons system they have sent and each Ukrainian counter-offensive have contributed to that goal and left Ukraine in a stronger position.

But the leaked Pentagon documents and recent statements by U.S. and Ukrainian officials make it clear that Ukraine’s planned spring offensive, already delayed into summer, would lack the previous element of surprise and encounter stronger Russian defenses than the offensives that recovered some of its lost territory last fall.

One leaked Pentagon document warned that “enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive,” concluding that it would probably make smaller territorial gains than the fall offensives did.

How can a new offensive with mixed results and higher casualties put Ukraine in a stronger position at a currently non-existent negotiating table? If the offensive reveals that even huge quantities of Western military aid have failed to give Ukraine military superiority or reduce its casualties to a sustainable level, it could very well leave Ukraine in a weaker negotiating position, instead of a stronger one.

Meanwhile, offers to mediate peace talks have been pouring in from countries all over the world, from the Vatican to China to Brazil. It has been six months since the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley suggested publicly, after Ukraine’s military gains last fall, that the moment had come to negotiate from a position of strength. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” he said.

It would be doubly or triply tragic if, on top of the diplomatic failures that led to the war in the first place and the U.S. and U.K. undermining peace negotiations in April 2022, the chance for diplomacy that General Milley wanted to seize is lost in the forlorn hope of attaining an even stronger negotiating position that is not really achievable.

If the U.S. persists in backing the plan for a Ukrainian offensive, instead of encouraging Zelenskyy to seize the moment for diplomacy, it will share considerable responsibility for the failure to seize the chance for peace, and for the appalling and ever-rising human costs of this war.

The experts who signed The New York Times statement recalled that, in 1997, 50 senior U.S. foreign policy experts warned President Bill Clinton that expanding NATO was a “policy error of historic proportions” and that, unfortunately, Clinton chose to ignore the warning. Biden, who is now pursuing his own policy error of historic proportions by prolonging this war, would do well to take the advice of today’s policy experts by helping to forge a diplomatic settlement and making the United States a force for peace in the world.

Russia Claims Patriot Destroyed, Fighting Bakhmut Edge; Chinese, African Peace Missions, F16 Split

Loud explosions heard throughout Ukraine as Russia steps up air strikes

Beijing tells foreign embassies to remove ‘politicised propaganda’

Foreign embassies in Beijing have been asked to remove “politicised propaganda” from their buildings, apparently a reference to the Ukrainian flags that many missions have displayed on their exterior since the Russian invasion.

The notice from China’s foreign ministry, sent earlier this month, said: “Do not use the building facilities’ exterior walls to display politicised propaganda to avoid inciting disputes between countries,” according to Reuters.

Four Beijing-based diplomats interviewed by the news agency said “politicised propaganda” was a reference to the Ukrainian flag. The notice was addressed to “all embassies, and international organisations’ China representative offices”.

The UK, Canadian, US and EU missions in Beijing, as well as other embassies, have displayed the Ukrainian flag outside their buildings in a show of solidarity. Embassies often display other banners to show support for countries or groups, such as the Pride flag of the LGBTQ+ community.

One diplomat said their mission did not intend to comply with the request.

From Waterboarding to Rape, Abu Zubaydah Depicts Torture at Black Sites & Gitmo in Graphic Sketches

Ecuador’s embattled president dissolves congress in bid to avoid impeachment

Ecuador’s embattled president, Guillermo Lasso, has dissolved congress in an attempt to escape impeachment – a radical maneuver that comes amid a backdrop of wider democratic backsliding and political turbulence across Latin America.

Lasso announced the dramatic move on Wednesday morning, a day after the start of an impeachment trial that seemed likely to lead to his removal from power in the coming days.

“Ecuadorian women and men: this is the best decision to find a constitutional way out of the political crisis … and give the people of Ecuador the chance to decide their future at the next elections,” tweeted the 67-year-old conservative businessman, who was elected in April 2021 after defeating the leftist economist Andrés Arauz.

Lasso’s decision to trigger a constitutional “mutual-death” clause dissolving his country’s 137-member national assembly will allow him to govern without the legislature until fresh elections are held. Some observers believe it could benefit the president, who will be allowed to stand in that contest. ...

Lasso survived the opposition’s first attempt to impeach him, in June last year, but looked set to be removed from office later this week after the start of an impeachment hearing based on embezzlement accusations which he disputes. His decree means those proceedings will end.

Ecuador’s president dissolves congress amid impeachment trial

New York law aims to stop funding of illegal Israeli settlements in West Bank

New York’s state assembly is to consider legislation to stop registered charities from sending tens of millions of dollars a year to fund illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. State assembly member Zohran Mamdani has introduced the “Not on our dime!: Ending New York funding of Israeli settler violence” act to prohibit tax-deductible donations from being used to expel Palestinians from their land and other activities widely regarded as war crimes under the Geneva conventions.

The United Nations security council has called Israeli settlement construction “a flagrant violation under international law”.

“This legislation makes it clear that New York will no longer effectively subsidise war crimes and the flouting of international law,” Mamdani told the Guardian. “What we have is a number of New York state-registered charities that are sending at least $60m a year to Israeli settlement organisations which then use that funding to continue the history of expulsion and dispossession of Palestinians in the occupied territories that has been going on for decades.”

The bill was denounced by some other members of the legislature who characterised it as an attack on charities that provide care for victims of terrorism and clothe orphans. “The bill is a ploy to demonise Jewish charities with connection to Israel. It was only introduced to antagonise pro-Israel New Yorkers and sow divisions within the Democratic party,” they said in a statement that did not make mention of settlements.

The legislation is backed by the Center for Constitutional Rights (CCR), the US Campaign for Palestinian Rights and Jewish Voice for Peace among others. Vince Warren, CCR’s director, said: “Aiding and abetting war crimes is not charitable, period. This bill goes a long way toward ensuring that New York is not inadvertently subsidising war crimes, but rather creating paths for accountability.”

Peace Talks Are A Bad Thing! Says Dem Senator Jacky Rosen

NYT Fearmongers Over Debt as GOP Holds Economy Hostage

In a recent op-ed for the New York Times (3/10/23), the economist and longtime Times columnist Paul Krugman gave readers “a pro tip”:

Anyone who makes alarmist claims about debt by talking about trillions of dollars as opposed to, say, percentages of gross domestic product, is engaged in scare tactics, not serious discussion.

It would be great if his own paper would listen to him.

Instead, the Times has been engaged in outright fearmongering over the size of the US federal debt over the past several months. This at the same time that the Republican Party has taken the economy hostage, in order to exact wildly unpopular cuts to government programs.

In a rerun of Obama-era fights, Republicans are using their majority in the House to refuse to raise the debt ceiling. As the Times (5/2/23) has acknowledged:

Lifting the debt limit does not actually authorize any new spending—in fact, it simply allows the United States to spend money on programs that have already been authorized by Congress.

Failing to raise the ceiling risks default, which could potentially bring economic disaster, and also appears to directly violate the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, which states, “The validity of the public debt of the United States…shall not be questioned.”

In the midst of this political battle, with one party using unconstitutional methods and the threat of economic catastrophe to try to kick people off social programs, a responsible paper of record might want to avoid mindlessly promoting a key premise of the economic terrorists: that government debt is a serious problem that we should be very concerned about.

But who said the Times was responsible? In April, over a third of the articles that the paper ran as part of its coverage of the political battle over the debt limit featured the scary raw number for the US federal debt: $31 trillion. Only one included reference to debt as a percentage of GDP. The story was similar in March, when five of 14 articles referenced the raw number or projections for that number, and only two articles mentioned the debt-to-GDP figure, or projections for that figure.

Some pieces that did not include the $31 trillion number nevertheless repeatedly alluded to the addition of trillions to the debt. In one case, the Times (3/9/23) described Biden as

cast[ing] himself as a new-generation Franklin D. Roosevelt pressing for a modern-day New Deal, with large-scale spending on climate change, social welfare programs and student debt relief that will add trillions of dollars to the national debt in years to come.

In another (3/31/23), it referenced

the tax cuts signed by President Donald J. Trump in 2017, which his administration said would pay for themselves, but which independent evidence showed added trillions to the national debt.

No context was provided for what “trillions” more in debt actually means. Basically all the reader gets is, That’s a lot of money, huh?–plus the insinuation, Probably not great, don’t you think? This approach may balance both sides—Hey, they’re both blowing a hole in the budget!—but it’s far from Krugman’s benchmark for responsible reporting.

The piece, by Jonathan Weisman, was littered with debt-scolding, with the subhead reading, “After a decade of rising deficits and soaring debt, the top White House contenders, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, show little interest in battling over the nation’s finances.” It quoted fiscal hawks, who variously lamented that “there is no good, hard governance anymore,” and that “it’s clearly good politics to recast yourself as the defender of Social Security and Medicare. It’s just bad for the country.”

Curiously, no policy expert opposed to gutting the federal budget made an appearance.

Even in the one April article (4/21/23) that discussed debt as a percentage of GDP, the framing was designed to stoke fear:

Even if the entire estimated savings from the [Republican spending] plan came to pass, it would still leave the nation a decade from now with total debt that was larger than the annual output of the economy—a level that [House Speaker Kevin] McCarthy and other Republicans have frequently labeled a crisis.

Whether that level of debt is actually a crisis was not up for discussion. Maybe the Times thinks that’s besides the point. But without such a discussion, readers can easily leave with the assumption that government debt is a serious problem, and with the notion that something drastic must be done, and soon.

As Krugman (5/4/23) has put it, though, “What’s odd about this potential crisis is that it has nothing to do with excessive debt.” In the same op-ed (3/10/23) cited above, he elaborated:

If we do look at debt as a percentage of GDP, it’s indeed high, but not outside ranges that other countries have managed without crisis…. Britain spent large parts of both the 19th and 20th centuries with debt well above current US levels, but without experiencing a severe debt crisis.

Likewise, if we look at American public debt over time, we see that it is still below the record levels it reached in the 1940s. It’s projected to bump past the domestic record by 2028, but there’s little reason to think that will lead to a crisis, besides one ginned up by the right for obviously political reasons. Writing in February (Project Syndicate, 2/9/23) of the projected rise in debt levels over the next decade, Barry Eichengreen, a Berkeley economist who recently co-authored the book In Defense of Public Debt, observed:

This increase is by no means catastrophic…. Cutting essential public programs now to address a debt problem that won’t even begin to materialize for a decade would be shooting ourselves in the foot.

In any case, the debt-to-GDP ratio could easily be stabilized or reduced by raising taxes and controlling healthcare costs, as Krugman recommends.

[More at the link. -js]

Biden ‘confident’ of reaching deal with McCarthy to avoid US debt default

Joe Biden and the Republican speaker of the US House, Kevin McCarthy, said on Wednesday they thought a deal to avoid a US debt default was in reach. Speaking at the White House, Biden said: “I’m confident that we’ll get the agreement on the budget, that America will not default.

“We’re going to come together because there’s no alternative way to do the right thing for the country. We have to move on.” On Tuesday, Biden and McCarthy met for an hour at the White House, a meeting the president called productive.

Biden, who has faced some criticism for his handling of the issue, is due to travel to the G7 summit in Japan but has cut the trip short to pursue a debt ceiling deal. Plans to visit Papua New Guinea and Australia were postponed.

On Wednesday, the president said: “I’ll be in constant contact with my team while I’m at the G7 and be in close touch with speaker McCarthy and other leaders as well.

“What I have done in anticipation that we won’t get it all done till I get back is, I’ve cut my trip short in order to be [here] for the final negotiations and sign the deal with the majority leader.”

White House debt limit talks: A manufactured, bipartisan conspiracy to make workers pay for war

On Tuesday, the stage-managed discussions between the White House and Congress on the debt limit and budget reached a new stage, with each side emerging from a meeting between Biden and top congressional leaders of both parties to praise progress toward a deal that will brutally slash social spending. In the guise of averting what Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen again on Tuesday called the “catastrophe” of a default on US debt obligations as soon as June 1, the two big business parties are conspiring to impose a multi-year cap on non-discretionary social spending that will deprive millions of people of health coverage, food assistance, rent support and other necessities. Also under discussion are new or heightened work requirements for Medicaid and food stamps that will condemn low-wage and unemployed workers to homelessness and hunger.

The “crisis” over the debt limit has a thoroughly contrived character, with the participation of both political parties and the media. According to the unchallenged narrative, the world will come to an end and everything will be lost if the two capitalist parties aren’t able to come to agreement to slash social spending within the next several weeks.

No one in the media cares to mention the origins of the massive levels of debt accumulated by the American government, which have been built up primarily as a result of trillions of dollars in military expenditures combined with the bailout of the banks and tax cuts for the rich.

In 2022 alone, Congress approved $113 billion in aid to Ukraine, part of more than $1 trillion in overall military spending. Only a few months ago, the Biden administration, with the support of both parties, organized the rapid bailout of a whole series of banks, guaranteeing the deposits of the wealthy. ...

The bipartisan assault on US workers’ social rights follows the precedent set by the Obama administration, which responded to the 2008 subprime mortgage financial collapse by organizing a multi-trillion-dollar bailout of Wall Street and the corporate elite. That was followed by the bankruptcy restructuring of the US auto industry based on the imposition of tiers, pay cuts and attacks on pensions and health benefits. In 2011, the Obama-Biden administration established the precedent for the current debt-ceiling operation, agreeing to cap federal discretionary spending for five years by imposing massive social cuts. Biden led the negotiations with the Republicans. This turn to austerity was bound up with the turn toward war with Russia and China. Obama oversaw the 2014 Maidan coup, which initiated the events that culminated in the escalating US-NATO war against Russia.

FBI Whistleblowers Testify At Jim Jordan's Weaponization Cmte Hearing

Krystal Ball’s Garbage RFK Jr. Smear Job CALLED OUT By Her Own Viewers!

CIA Whistleblower John Kiriakou: Giuliani Aide Told Me Presidential Pardon Would Cost Me $2 Million

World likely to breach 1.5C climate threshold by 2027, scientists warn

The world is almost certain to experience new record temperatures in the next five years, and temperatures are likely to rise by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, scientists have warned. The breaching of the crucial 1.5C threshold, which scientists have warned could have dire consequences, should be only temporary, according to research from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

However, it would represent a marked acceleration of human impacts on the global climate system, and send the world into “uncharted territory”, the UN agency warned.

Countries have pledged, under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, to try to hold global temperatures to no higher than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, after scientific advice that heating beyond that level would unleash a cascade of increasingly catastrophic and potentially irreversible impacts.

Prof Petteri Taalas, the secretary general of the WMO, said: “This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5C specified in the Paris agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”

Global average surface temperatures have never before breached the 1.5C threshold. The highest average in previous years was 1.28C above pre-industrial levels.

Climate breakdown made southern Asia heatwave at least 2C hotter, study finds

A searing heatwave in parts of southern Asia in April was made at least 30 times more likely by climate breakdown, according to a study by international scientists. Unusually high temperatures of up to 45C (113F) were recorded last month in monitoring stations in parts of India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Laos.

The heat caused deaths and widespread hospitalisations, damaged roads, sparked fires and led to school closures in the region, the study by the World Weather Attribution group found. In Thailand, high temperatures mixed with humidity meant some parts of the country felt above 50C (122F). In India, several regions were affected and 13 people died due to the heat at a public event outside Mumbai. The eastern Indian state of West Bengal closed all schools and colleges for a week.

The study found that temperatures were at least 2C (3.6F) hotter in the region because of climate breakdown. ...

“We see again and again that climate change dramatically increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, one of the deadliest weather events there are,” said Friederike Otto, a senior climate scientist at Imperial College London and one of the study’s authors.

Also of Interest

Here are some articles of interest, some which defied fair-use abstraction.

This 9/11 suspect and ‘torture prop’ has spent 20 years in Guantánamo. Is he nearing a deal with the US?

China and the Axis of the Sanctioned

A Minus And Plus For The Debt Ceiling Crisis

Ukraine’s Neoliberalism on Steroids, Europe’s Economic Suicide

Eight Takeaways From the Durham Report

Durham Report Reveals the Real Threat to “Democracy” – The FBI Weaponized by Democrat Party Affiliated Elites

A precious resource: how Israel uses water to control the West Bank

Working Longer 'Not a Viable Solution' to US Retirement Crisis, Economists Say

A Little Night Music

Kenny Neal - Blues Keep Chasing Me

Kenny Neal - Gonna Put You Out Of My Misery

Kenny Neal - Any Fool Will Do

Kenny Neal - Things Got To Get Better

Billy Branch & Kenny Neal - My Babe / Little Red Rooster

Kenny Neal - I Smell Smoke

Kenny Neal & The Neal Blues Brothers - Blues Stew

Kenny Neal - I'll Play the Blues for You

Kenny Neal - Bio On The Bayou