The Democratic Party has never represented its voters less

The Democrats abandoned the working class decades ago. Of that there is no doubt.
But it's only since 2016 when the divide between the party leadership and the base gotten so large and obvious that it can be measured.

For starters, let's look at what has changed with the voters.

According to Pew data, 46 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters now identify as liberal—up from 28 percent 10 years ago. Meanwhile, the percentage who say they’re moderates has dropped from 44 to 37. The number of conservatives continues to drop, too.
...
On economics, three-quarters of Democrats say that the government doesn’t do enough to help poor people, up from half in 1994. Two-thirds say that government should regulate business more, again up from half in 1994. Conversely, in 1994, two-thirds of Democrats believed that people could get ahead if they were willing to work hard. Now only half do. The percentage of Democrats who believe that corporations make too much money is up 12 points. But the movement is not uniform. While the portion of Democrats who say that the government should do more to help the poor, even if it requires taking on debt, rose from 58 percent in 1994 to 71 percent in 2017, it is still below the peak of 77 percent, in 2007.

The poll also shows how the base has shifted left on social issues, but since these issues don't cost anything monetarily, the Dem leadership actually tries to represent on these issues.

Now let's look at the candidates.

In the most competitive House races, particularly in districts that lean toward Republicans, researchers at the Brookings Institution ran the numbers and concluded that Democrats are relying more on moderate candidates in those districts over self-identified progressives.
“The steady success of establishment candidates calls into question whether the Democrats are being pulled to the left,” researchers Elaine Kamarck and Alexander Podkul wrote.

A different data set points to the same conclusion: In the 69 most competitive House districts, only 15 Democratic candidates have endorsed Medicare-for-all, the policy pillar of the left’s enthusiasm, according to an analysis by Forbes-Tate, a DC-based lobbying firm.

The neoliberal centrism is even more pronounced in the Senate.

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) ran a recent radio spot that says, “Claire’s not one of those crazy Democrats. She works right in the middle and finds compromise.”
Sen. Joe Manchin was the only Democrat to vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court (though he wasn’t the deciding vote) and looks like he looks like nearly a lock for reelection going into Election Day.
Democrats have an unexpected chance to win a Senate seat in Tennessee thanks to the state’s lingering fondness for moderate ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat who cut Medicaid as governor and who says he would have voted for Kavanaugh’s confirmation if he had been in the Senate.
Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema is playing to the middle for retiring Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat — in spite of some well-documented flirtations with the left — in her Senate campaign against Republican Martha McSally. She’s highlighted that she voted with Trump 60 percent of the time, one of the highest rankings among House Democrats.

More incumbent Democrats faced primaries—45 percent, up from fewer than 28 percent in 2014. Most of these challengers were progressives.
Almost all of the challengers lost. Part of the reason for the lack of success is things all challengers face, such as lack of name recognition.
A bigger reason is that the progressive insurgents didn't take corporate money, and thus were overwhelmed by cash.
And then, of course, there was the establishment advantage.

The Democratic establishment may think they've won something by defeating the progressives this time around, but what sort of political party feels good about silencing and disenfranchising their own voters?
That's a political party headed for oblivion.

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I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

@The Voice In the Wilderness
From what I understand:

too young
not a citizen
trapped in the prison-industrial-complex

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@gjohnsit voters.

It seems a little strange to consider whether little kids are voting.

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I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

The Democratic establishment may think they've won something by defeating the progressives this time around, but what sort of political party feels good about silencing and disenfranchising their own voters?
That's a political party headed for oblivion.

Demexit is real and still growing. Every time the leadership punches down on its base, it loses that many more former Dem loyalists.

Yet the failure to account for Demexit has the distorting effect of making the Dem poll numbers look better than they are, because the remaining Demenders are the hardcore loyalists most supportive of the party line.

So take Demender intensity and extrapolate that across turnout for all registered Democrats (including Berniecrats) and you get a rosy scenario that smells all the sweeter the more the flower dies.

Progressive polling analyst Richard Charnin* has been all over Silver for his prognostications:

[G]iven the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.86-47.14%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.

So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

Silver ignores this disenchantment of the disenfranchised during the primaries and assumes they'll still come flocking back to the Dems during the general. In 2016, much to his chagrin, that didn't happen. Given that the Dems continue their party pogrom against anything remotely Bernie, no reason to believe 2018 will be any different.

*Charnin is predicting the Goopers keep the House 230-205. Gonna be interesting to whether he or Nate ends up closer to the actual result.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger

is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

I'd bet good money against that.

However, the Democratic motivation edge might not be enough to overcome GOP voter suppression + gerrymandering.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit

the Democratic motivation edge might not be enough to overcome GOP voter suppression + gerrymandering

.

When California finally gets around to counting the 1.2 million provisional ballots from the 2016 primary, or New York State finally gets around to investigating the stripping of Berniecrat registrations in the NYC burroughs, then maybe I'll entertain that the Goopers get a cheaters' edge.

Heck, I grew up in Chicago. I don't think I ever voted in an honestly run election in all the time I lived there.

Both corrupt parties cheat badly. Blaming one side or the other just obscures the real reasons for the Dems' demise.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger
Democrats suppress voters in safe-blue districts.
Republicans suppress votes in battleground districts.

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@gjohnsit Democrats basically and first most cheat each other in primaries. They are more focused on keeping their own parochial power. The gop sees elections more nationally.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit

Democrats suppress voters in safe-blue districts.

So you're OK with Democrats actively suppressing Progressive voters?

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger
I'm just pointing out that it is different.

GOP vote suppression happens in general elections.
Dem vote suppression happens in primaries.

Both of them look to suppress votes on their left.
It's important to note because it shows who they think their enemies really are.
For Dems, it's leftists. For Repubs, it's liberals.
Dems do such a good job at suppressing leftists that they are irrelevant to Repubs.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit @gjohnsit

GOP vote suppression happens in general elections.
Dem vote suppression happens in primaries.

If you suppress Progressive votes in the primaries then you ensure a Corporate Dem candidate in the general.

In my book, the effect of a Progressive candidate not being allowed to even compete in a general election is a lot worse than whoever rigs a general between two corporate toadies.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@gjohnsit
that candidates in solid blue districts could benefit from Democratic motivation but Republicans not suffer from it. Remember that Hillary won the popular vote overwhelmingly in LA, but lost almost everywhere else. In reality no one will care that Nancy Pelosi beat the Republican by 55,000 votes in San Francisco.

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On to Biden since 1973

@Not Henry Kissinger When Jane Byrne beat Bilandic in the 1979 Democratic mayoral primary. I think the party forgot to cheat.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@MrWebster @MrWebster @MrWebster

and a lot of pissed off garbage handlers to carry Chicago, the all weather beacon for elections fair and honest, through its finest Democratic hour, by electing an insider in a Dem primary supported by a rebel faction of City Council Alderman gunning for the ghost of Daley Sr's chair.

Byrne's campaign, launched after she was fired from a City Hall job by Bilandic, was dismissed at first as a bid for retribution. But events buried Bilandic.Two huge snowstorms dumped more than 35 inches of snow on Chicago in little more than two weeks, and the city's handling of the blizzards was a disaster. Streets were not plowed, garbage was not collected and mass transit was staggered. Chicago was the city that could not get to work. By Election Day, many voters who had been faithful to the machine were ready to dump Bilandic.

Byrne splits the white vote by posing as a not-white-male anti-Machine Progressive and actively courts anti-machine black voters (sound familiar?). The unions, tired of being jerked around by the Daleys, pick an opportune moment to all get the flu and the city grinds to a halt for a month.

Because of lack of snow plowing, turnout is low in machine friendly white areas where more voters drive (or get free rides) to polling places and high where white progressives in Gold Coast highrises and black voters in the projects walk to their polling places.

So with all that: people digging out from the second of two biblical snowstorms, rotting garbage filling up every alleyway in every neighborhood, trains barely running and the buses not at all, emergency services non-existent, and a nice sunny day to bring out the occasional but very pissed off leaners who cant get to work...

Byrne wins the race by two measly points.

Sorry, but if that's your idea of a victory for honest elections, all I can say is it sure doesn't come easy.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

dervish's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger It's amazing how powerful a grip these criminals can have.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Mark from Queens's picture

But Cenk sees an internal Democratic civil war that the Progs are going to win:

He also thinks there's going to be a massive Blue Wave. Not so sure.

But it is the same repeat story every time, historically, with the midterms, isn't it? The party not in power always seems to get back some. Then we all breathlessly talk about our sports teams, while hope springs eternal, and prognostications fly from highly-paid partisan pundits on the partisan networks - but NOTHING CHANGES. Not a fucking thing.

Not having to run on any actual popular platforms (taxing the rich, ending corruption/Money In Politics, free healthcare/college, et) is another in a whole slew of disasters stemming from $hillary having Her Turn (and colluding heavily to cheat Bernie, who would have destroyed Drumpf) and losing to the other worst candidate ever. Being an "oppositional" party requires nothing in this case except, "look over there....Fear, Fear, Fear."

They've dug their grave, maybe just kicking the can down the road a little more until then, for not standing up and doing the right thing by the citizens still in the throes of an Economic Terrorist of Wall St Hijacking.

They could so easily have catapulted to power if they had stopped taking corporate cash and vowing to pass any of the aforementioned popular ideas people are clamoring for. The whole thing is pure sinister dystopia.

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"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:

THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"

- Kurt Vonnegut

dance you monster's picture

. . . and I am pretty damn sure that Bredesen will lose, possibly badly. Of course, the words "Senator Marsha Blackburn" is about as badly as anything gets.

Saw the ads, the painting of Bredesen as a blinkered liberal favoring opening the doors to every furrin criminal ('cuz what other kind of furriner is there?), and Bredesen's subsequent failure to stand up for his own beliefs. Woosy doesn't play well in TN. And then there were the signs, the biggest damned yard signs on earth, the size of a car, and everywhere. Even in blue Nashville, Marsha's outnumbered Phil's by a long shot, and outside Nashville, well . . . .

So the Senate looks like it will remain as it is, just considerably loopier.

Back here in PA, I told y'all what happened in the primaries, where Dems do their dirty work, so it will be pick and choose and leaving several slots blank tomorrow. I still go to the polls, I want them to know I go, and that I can discern what's happening and choose to, or not to, vote on any line of the ballot accordingly. If others are as pissed off as I am, the House won't go blue, either.

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The 18 year olds who voted when President Hope got elected got a crash course in the 21st century democratic party. I think a lot of them stayed home when HER ran. Many saw their families trashed in the economic melt down. Disappointment runs deeper than any loyalty they might have felt. If something starts to jell, 3rd party, major faction inside the democratic party, anything, it'll come from them. Too much time was spent telling them how important this all is, only to ultimately show them how unimportant their concerns are.

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