COVID-19 March 7th update, number 2

Physicians have implemented a program called CME--continuing medical education. This is required on an annual basis by many state licensing boards, including my beloved CA. Here we are required annually to get 25 credit CME hours, issued by certified educational providers for this purpose. The intense exercise here at c99 alone is giving me a very deep and broad understanding of a narrow yet crucial medical issue, or issues if you wish to subdivide this pending epidemic. I am learning a lot. If this business failed to educate me, then I should no longer call myself a physician despite 50+ years dedicated to medicine. But I am learning. I am grateful to the communitarians contributing, even those with whom I disagree. Too much is unknown.

Today, I have learned that I could obtain excellent COVID-19 coverage, from of all places, an investment/financial blog. This would be Peak Prosperity. Thank you to those recommending it.

Has any one failed to notice the rapidity at which this story is unfolding. The shroud of mystery, secrecy, and outright lying is being rapidly dissipated as if by a hurricane. Almost hourly, new and more precise information is emerging.

Presented here are screen shots from multiple sources, accompanied by comments.

Sheer stupidity and or cravenness of the public health people responsible. In my own county, Public Health Authorities will not authorize tests unless stringent conditions exist--these conditions ensure that only symptomatic people will qualify for testing.

R0 between 3 and 6.7. I have my doubts. In the US not enough people including Class B individuals have been tested.

Incubation period as long as 27 days? If so, current quarantine, whether self-imposed or externally-imposed are too brief.

Inaccurate testing--as of March 6 the CDC is making available a highly specific and sensitive 3 biomarker test kit. Even if a test is positive for a single marker, that person is certain to be virus infected.

Surface persistence for 9 days? Whoa. That is horrible if true. So, even with extended quarantine, thorough disinfection is necessary.

Still unanswered is what percentage of Class B patients are infectious? 2%? 10%? more?

Stringent but excellent advice. Follow it.

Walking the walk, not just talking the talk

In the past 3 days, starting March 5, I began social distancing. If either I become symptomatic, including unusual fatigue OR fever OR cough--or I contact someone known to be a COVID-19 contact (not simply a person with confirmed disease), I will self-quarantine. I am prepared for this contingency. Are you?

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RantingRooster's picture

With these puppies as plan B, I ain't worried about shit!planB.jpg

Well, except who will take care of Gigi...
20170706_185439.jpg
Such is the life of kitty furniture!

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C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote

WoodsDweller's picture

Surface persistence for 9 days? Whoa. That is horrible if true.

Does this mean what I think it means? I'm on the way to town tomorrow to pick up some supplies. Sounds like anything that has been handled in the last 9 days (in other words, anything on the shelves) could potentially be contaminated, even if the local area hasn't been compromised yet. I suppose I could avoid re-touching them after I put them away for 9 days. If kept in the basement away from UV is 9 days still valid? Or is it just about exposure to oxygen?

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Alligator Ed's picture

@WoodsDweller I wish I had the answer.

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I had a good discussion this morning with my wife. We are both over 60 and regularly are exposed to many places and people, ugh. We can't take the attitude that it is all just random chance so just go on life as usual. On the other hand we don't want to self isolate without some specific cause, but with this virus we don't know if we have been directly exposed. We have a large store of food, hand sanitizer, face masks and disinfectants.
I think I'll take a variable approach. Avoid all places with large groups of people and sanitize my hands often, for now. Should I take public transportation or drive? Lots of questions like that. I think that I will watch the situation in MA and if I see clusters of infections growing and a large delta I will move to the next level of caution. What do others here think about this?

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Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

Lookout's picture

@The Wizard

There is a case in nearby Rome, GA. We discussed a break in our weekly music session on Fridays, but decided to see how things progress over the next couple of weeks and cancel if we see spread in our community.

Dr Campbell suggest UV and sunlight will kill the virus. A helpful tip. We still hang our laundry to dry in the sun so that should help too.

Beefing up your Vit C and D (Mg and Zn too) is I think a good idea just to boost your immunity. Take care and be well!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

mimi's picture

@The Wizard @The Wizard
we have drive through testing facilities, whereby people get the swap and remain sitting in their cars for it. I found that a reasonable effort. You can sanitize your car often and wear masks outside, as long as you don't know if you have been infected. You can then wait til you get the results of the test may be two weeks later dependent on how it's organized in your area.

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Alligator Ed's picture

@mimi [video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKm_SdWak9A]

For dich, gnädige mimi, aus der Rockpalast.

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mimi's picture

@Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed (added something)
sigh ...
Blush
PS: 'gnädige' and 'mimi' fits like "die Faust aufs Auge", ie not at all (literally 'like a fist on one's eye')

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Alligator Ed's picture

@The Wizard I'll let you know how I am handling this. Over 65 (by quite a bit--but I can still run up a flight of stairs without getting winded) and possessing a risk factor (other than being a hunted reptile), I am social isolating. I will be self-quarantining if I feel ill or if anyone with whom I contact is either sick or contacted someone likely to be infected.

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TheOtherMaven's picture

Coincidence? Or scare tactics to sabotage Sanders? You decide....

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

mimi's picture

@TheOtherMaven

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TheOtherMaven's picture

@mimi

Now that the Sunday "debate" will be a "town hall" with no audience? Now that the Mainstream Media Maniacs are starting to scream about

CANCELING THE REST OF THE PRIMARIES

BECAUSE COVID-19?

The US was NEVER a democracy, but we used to have a figleaf pretense of "representative government". Now even that is gone, and the naked truth is very, very ugly.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

mimi's picture

@TheOtherMaven @TheOtherMaven
as much as saying the Corona Virus was developed and released into the public ON PURPOSE.
That is bad and more than silly. And if I had not misread the meaning of some commentator here that said it, then I would like to know, what is the reaosn and the facts proving such a statement.

The bug/buck stops here. And that the US is not a very good Democracy is known since decades.

PS. Our CDU (equals christian conservative party) Parteitag (party convention or party conference) had just been cancelled as well. See, wo we are in the same boat, aren't we?

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mimi's picture

@mimi @mimi
why I am not so happy about the thought that the corona-virus issue is used as a political weapon that is borderline to CT statements ...
because I am close to some who lose their minds over this and I am out of wit how to help those, who can't handle the situation. I am no doctor or therapist, aside from the fact that even those are helpless at this point.
Just trying to make myself more clear. No offense.

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Alligator Ed's picture

@mimi @mimi Here is my theory of this sad state of affairs.
1. The virus may be native to bats or have been created in a biology lab in Wuhan
2. The virus was discovered within a week or two after the first human was affected
3. By accident a Chinese MD ophthalmogist Wen Liang suspected a bad bug was going around but didn't know which one
4. Dr. Wen unfortunately dies about two weeks after tending at least one COVID-19 patient
5. Concurrent to Dr. Wen's discovery of a bad bug, other medical scientists figured out this wasn't influenza but a new variation on a somewhat older theme, the small cluster of coronavirus species
6. These medical scientists then report the news to the Health Department, or whatever it's called
7. The Wuhan / Hubei province government leaders don't want the news getting out--bad for business and their careers
8. Being loyal Party members, news of the illness is delivered to the central office of the Health Department in Beijing or wherever
9. This is where politics is thickly injected. In order to protect their communities and their careers (although I cannot determine which these perfunctories served) put the lid on notification The cover-up begins
10. With the cover-up, politics always is involved.

I hope you were able to understand my version of history. Of course, I am often wrong, but I generally admit to any errors.

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mimi's picture

it I can't remember the ten points for longer than a couple of minutes. JtC might fix it to top of community news as well, imho.
Thanks, Doctor.

If the virus was created in a biology lab in Wuhan, why was it created, was it accidentically released or did the viruses excaped the lab on their own ... Jumping viruses ... have a mind of their own, it seems.

I hate to think about it.

There was one report on German TV (can't find it online) that said the scientists at the University of Lübeck are working on drug developments to kill some virus, which was very close to the COVAD one, since at least 7 years or may be more since 2003? It caught my attention. Just as an aside to that, the Lübeck University Biology Engineering lab had two Asian or Chinese lab assistants... and that plays fuzzy with my mind. I hate fuzzy stuff, unintended consequences and fatal accidents.

PS. Just saw a notification that all schools in Berlin, Germany, will be closed. Fucked Up Beyond All the Right Reasons. FUBARR! Grrrr...

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mimi's picture

@mimi
anymore your loved ones, who reside in nursing homes for the elderlies.

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Alligator Ed's picture

@mimi @mimi Apparently this is her version of Götterdämmerung. Or maybe der Führer's idea of taking Deutschland down with them when they reached the end. I don't know. Seems pretty damn lot like she is giving the finger to the Volk. What do you think?

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mimi's picture

@Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed (argh edited twice, edited again, now three times)
Belgium has closed the borders. Other than that, my mind is blank and I have nothing to say.

Germany has no border with Italy, it has borders with Austria and Switzerland. Austria has closed the borders to Italy. Switzerland I don't know, but I think if they haven't closed them yet, they will have to. Edited: Swotzerland has closed the borders to Italy. Sorry for that. Can't find the links as fast as I should. Sorry. Edited: Switzerland has closed nine border-crossing points and redirect traffic to larger ones. So, Switzerland has not closed the borders to Italy. I can't keep up with what I try to read.

My guess is that borders will be closed all over Europe. They won't be able to avoid
closing them. The question is when.

Ask me something easier next time, please, Merkel cares more for the people than others, imho. But I guess all our mileage varies and oscillates like a damn sinus curve.

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mimi's picture

@mimi
is this one:
here

If they just had the magic translation code with it and would publish the updated stuff in English as well. Arggh.

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Alligator Ed's picture

@mimi More properly my comment should have read that Angela is accepting traffic to and from Italy, mainly by air. I don't know if any highways or rail lines are closed in the E.U. Could not make out your Deutscher link. Sadly I lack the facility with your native language that you show with English (Amerikan version).

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mimi's picture

@Alligator Ed
to Germany from other countries. People are overfed with news (like I am) and don't want to hear them anymore, at least in the stores I was in today.

I let you know if I have news that I understood correctly. Let's hope that happens a bit more often in the future. Have a good weekend.
Bye

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Alligator Ed's picture

Wink

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