A contrarian view of the Syrian war escalation
Big Al just published a remarkable essay: about the fifth anniversary of the Syrian War. Not only is the essay itself quite good but most of the commentary is very informative. The variety of sources relied upon by the community is remarkable.
The prevailing interpretations in the essay and commentary is that this move ratchets up the U.S. involvement in the Syrian war. It is not, and has not been, civil as some have previously noted. It has always been about Sunni interference in a predominantly Shiite country both for religious reasons as well as for King Oil. The only foreign power actually invited into the conflict has been Russia, whose help was requested by Assad.
Yes, yes, yes. Assad is a murdering bastard. So were Gaddafi and Saddam; probably others as well (definitely including the House of Saud). Look at the benefit (/s) bequeathed by Neocon overthrow of these and other ME regimes. Hundreds of thousands killed, millions displaced, billions looted, trillions wasted. To what gain for humanity? I exclude the MIC/oligarchy/billionaires from humanity because they lack any semblance of empathy = sociopathy.
It is useful to examine the Syrian War tale. Let's start with the AUMF--or really the lack of one for our war in Syria. Spineless Barack Hussein Obama feebly tried to get an AUMF to attack Syria but he couldn't muster the legislative power to back him. So, he just said: "screw it, I'm going to do it anyway". The equally spineless Congress did nothing--nothing to help and certainly nothing to hinder.
Then the inevitable mission creep evolved. Right now this mission is having trouble because with Trump in office, there clearly is no mission. This is the focus of my essay as will be explained below.
Before the Trumposaurus could get in office, O'Bomber made the situation progressively worse. Red lines in the sand, gassing people with our own left over Sarin from Libya and other places, etc. Yes, killing in the name of peace!
First we must dispense with the hypocritical protestations against these hypocritical protestations against what I contend is really only a pseudo-provocation.
Here is where I am a contrarian. It is commonly accepted not only by the MSM, Dem establishment and even people here that Trump is stupid. This is false. He may be crazy. He may be inconsistent. He may be a liar. But he'd is not stupid. People who write him off as an idiot or buffoon, which no doubt he often does appear to be should be mindful of two things:
1. Trump overcame obstacles every bit as serious as those Bernie faced, and sadly failed to overcome. The MSM, who helped create this Frankenstein monster, was no longer to contain him. Medusa's "I'm not Trump" monotone campaign utterly failed (losing $ 1.4 B in the process). So, Trump, narcissist as he may be be, outwitted all the "smart people" including the Deep State.
Putin is not a nice fellow but he is a consummate politician. Were he not so, WW3 would already have been a reality. Had there been a Russian equivalent of the Evil Queen, we would all be glowing in the dark (to use Ted Cruz's descriptive phrase).
Why am I talking about Putin? That is to illustrate how Putin is carefully maneuvering through a sea of difficulties including international sanctions, depressed oil prices, NATO infringement on his borders, resurgent (Ukranian) Nazis, hard liners from Russia's own Deep State. As I said, Putin is doing a masterful job at preserving both himself and Mother Russia.
2. Quoting from Sun Tzu's Art of War: "Make the enemy think you are crazy". Trump is inconsistent, horrible, but not crazy.
Consider Trump's dilemmas, which basically are not too dissimilar to Putin's--except on perhaps a larger scale.
A. Deep State
B. "Resist" movement
C. Islamic jihadists (largely of our own making)
D. Xenophobia
E. Truly weak economic recovery with the 99% benefitting little, it at all
F. McCain-Graham wing of GOP
G. Rand Paul wing of GOP
H. Unsustainable military growth
I. Supine, spineless but noisy opposition party
J. NeoCons salivating with bloodlust
K. Desire to have better relations with Russia
In other words, he is facing the political equivalent of being draw-and-quartered. I contend that Trump, having little room for maneuver, has just played a brilliant political move.
1. He warned Putin in advance of the action
2. The Tomahawks did surprisingly little strategic damage
3. He has sucked in ISIS to take advantage of illusory gains in their favor
4. He has temporarily satiated the NeoCons
5. He throws a bone to the MIC
5 A. He gives the MIC a lot to worry about as to why the hit ratio was less than 50%.
6. He has committed no ground troops to Syria
7. He buys time for the Ricegate to gnaw his enemies to death
Comments
Another contrarian on escalation of the Syrian war
30 minutes after publishing this essay, I came across this video:
[video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o88f0rAVfwE]
Although he takes a somewhat differing viewpoint than mine, we both agree that this move was NOT an escalation. Here are some quotes from his video.
This "attack" just helps Trump maintain control.
Whatever "warning" this action
may have been intended to convey, I doubt that it affected the R+6 intentions and strategies much at all. If it accomplished anything, it could only have been to give Putin even more reason for augmenting and reinforcing Russia's military support of Assad.
The US lapdog media naturally blows this event way up out of proportion (while simultaneously getting the facts all wrong) and Trump gets to bask in the resulting accolades -- which he considers to be only his due. Militarily, the attack had little to no effect. It cost US taxpayers somewhere north of one hundred million dollars, but I guess that's chump change for our ultra-patriotic, and well-endowed masters of war.
native
Please explain R + 6.
Shorthand for Assad's allies contra jihadis & assorted rebels.
Primarily Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Hezbollah, maybe some Kurds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Syria%E2%80%93Iran%E2%80%93...
native
Thank you
They bug me too. Sorry to have used one.
native
Entirely plausible
I look for Putin to claim his missiles have a 98% kill rate. Then mic drop.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
I still think it was fat
I still think it was fat-headed, but since he warned Assad, I kinda wonder if he thought that this would get the neo-cons to back off a bit...
But is it true that 7 people died in the missile attack? So many different stories floating around...
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
From the US Empire's viewpoint
Sun Tzu: "underrate your enemy [is] to your peril."
@Alligator Ed
Personally, I generally try not step on ants. But then, I figure they have a right to be outside, running free, their antennae flowing in the breeze...
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
As long as they don't set up shop
on my doorstep. We have some pretty aggressive ants here in New Mexico.
native
@native
I see your point. And feel your pain, if bitten... Ours are mostly little and rarely seen indoors.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
thx, glad to read some words of clarity and if I just
had the nerves and capacity to read the legislative texts that are introduced in Congress. Thanks for the front page of the AUFM of 2013 too.
https://www.euronews.com/live
What most misunderestimate about Trump
Is that the guy is a classic carny conman type. He's not as smart as his bluster or supporters might want to make him seem, but he's crafty. Part of being crafty is letting others think you're the idiot. As you pointed out, he ran the boards on the GOP who clearly didn't take him seriously and then he did the same thing with the Democrats because they made the same mistake!
We can point and laugh and at his business and personal failings, but notice who always manages to come out on top in those dealings. This is what worries me ultimately. What is his goal? He always seems to get what he wants, usually personal or brand enrichment, at the cost of anyone stupid enough to enter a deal with him.
It almost makes me more nervous about this current military adventure because I think with anyone else, we could be confident it's the typical Deep State/MIC/petrochemical reasons for why now. Maybe so with Trump, but the guy functions to please only himself, so we'll only know long after the grift has happened. (Not like any reason is good, especially assuming all the evidence pointing towards this being false flag is true.)
Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.
As you indicate, Trump plays others for suckers
You say about Trump,
For me it seems his goal is business, deals, increased wealth, putting more Americans back to work in jobs paying enough so they can buy stuff, travel, go out to lavish parties and restaurants, play golf.
I have a hard time thinking his goal is to demonstrate the usefulness of nuclear weapons, Ashton Carter's goal. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter is a certified lunatic, a psychopath, a sociopath, an insane person. You'd have to be a sociopath to be a career nuclear weapons procurement specialist and to propose making nuclear weapons "more useful". He's sick. But he's not Trump.
What's scary is that Trump is surrounded by these mass murderers, CIA, Neocon, Council on Foreign Relations world war mass assassins in suits more expensive than Trump's. If he gets mesmerized by these killers, because they took him out to a good lunch, or because they project their other-worldly importance and deep knowledgeableness on him, he appears to have a tendency to be pulled around.
That's what scares me about Trump.
Although too soon to tell, I don't think is backtracking
Here's an interesting take
Trump is hillary in man's clothing, the CFR has it's paws
on everything.
http://www.defenddemocracy.press/third-world-war-the-beginning/
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
You linked an interesting analysis
I agree with the first part. But how is Crimea ours by any stretch of the imagination? Russia doesn't think so and have taken steps to prove that Crimea is not at our disposal. The Russians will not give up their main Black Sea port, their window to the Mediterranean. If they did, the country would shrivel and die--AND they know it as do we.
For my contrarian view (and I am not alone in this), it will be only a matter of weeks or 2 months before we find out. Watch for reactions from Putin, Assad, and even the feeble EU. For a useful weathervane at how things are going. If NYT and CNN are happy about what's going on then we are in deep trouble. When they start blasting Trump for being "too slow" to follow through, they will be mad--but the rest of us should feel relieved.
I still contend this action served to buy Trump time, mollify Neocons/deep state while waiting for Ricegate to start dragging down Deep State/Obama. If Congress (mainly the House) initiates hearing on Ricegate, powered by subpoenas and occurring under oath, then I will be more reassured as to which way this thing is going.
Good analysis
Something tells me that their is communication between the clintons/trumps going on
behind the scenes and your conclusion to watch CNN and NYT is spot on.
with hillary we would be saying "told you so", with trump we haven't a clue, but in
connecting dots, Ocare has been saved, North Korea has been warned and Assad you're
at the 2 minute warning? bad analogy, as of now we have hillary in trump clothing.
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
The author is Alexander Dugin
He's a Russian nut-job that has been labelled "Putin's brain". Contrary to western propaganda, Putin has never even met the man and history has proven he has never followed Dugin's advice. Some of his ideas are interesting but most are too far out in left field. I compare him to a rabid Russian neocon with religious fervor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
"How is Crimea ours"?
Pretty sure "oil" is the key word here
Putin wants it too. If there are no resources to exploit, there would be no death and destruction. I wish we could stop the reliance on oil, now.
Beware the bullshit factories.
resources aren't the whole story
I wish that were true. It isn't.
For example, there are no resources in Yemen, but plenty of death and destruction going on there.....
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
@thanatokephaloides
https://moraloutrage.wordpress.com/2010/01/20/why-the-u-s-interest-in-ye...
When they say they're 'bringing democracy' to the world, it's another example that words don't carry the same meaning for them... and neither does life itself.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Bringing Democracy to the world!?!
@Alligator Ed
I don't think I could handle the responsibility for this.
Not a huge Bee Gees fan but:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHTO_KGFlsQ
Bee Gees - I Started A Joke (Lyrics)
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
@Timmethy2.0
Well, as far as I recall, a Russian corporation was invited in; the US corporations/PTB can't have that!
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
When will the Hillarybots start
accusing Trump of being a traitor for giving Russia a warning ahead of the missiles? Maybe when they learn more than half of them were intercepted and destroyed by Russia? * the intercept is not a fact. Yet.*
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Something or somebody is going to have to explain to TPTB
@Alligator Ed
It does take a fair bot of skill to throw a Tomahawk.
I trust they didn't use the Boomerangs by mistake?
Edit: was going to fix a rather odd typo of what was supposed to be 'bit' above, but then realized that these would be tossed by a computerized program, making 'bot' rather appropriate, especially for the nation which has 17 spy agencies and what - thousands? - of private companies all busily spying on its own public in case someone powerful ever wants to 'adapt' something in their private conversation as an excuse for kidnapping them to be held incognito and indefinitely without trial - but possibly with torture used until the victims make up something the torturers think they can use to perhaps attack another country until they run out of fresh ones to ruin...
Lol, the US is so much worse than the old Soviets, how can anyone possibly think that pretending that they're still running Russia could possibly scare anyone?
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Regardless of why the Tomahawks failed, they failed!
@Alligator Ed
True.
But maybe the people actually launching them didn't want the terrorists to win?
Edit: actually, would it really be all that surprising if the MIC, like the financial industry, started selling the military smoke and mirrors, many of which vanish upon use, rather than real products? Or perhaps the missiles are outsourced to Malaysian or other slave labour sources where the workers are too miserable to care about quality, so that many come unstitched half-way out? You just can't get quaity anymore...
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Maybe they didn't launch
as many as they charged us for.
@Linda Wood
Lol, bet you're right. They probably sold/gifted most of them to the terrorists already.
Just wait, shortly the 'interesting times' we live in will be attributed to an old Chinese curse and termed 'an act of war meriting nuking'...
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Linda, my cynical thought was that the missiles were dumped
Watch the opinion polls turn around ...
as Democrats marvel at what a strong leader Trump has become.
I think you are correct.