A contrarian view of the Syrian war escalation

Big Al just published a remarkable essay: about the fifth anniversary of the Syrian War. Not only is the essay itself quite good but most of the commentary is very informative. The variety of sources relied upon by the community is remarkable.

The prevailing interpretations in the essay and commentary is that this move ratchets up the U.S. involvement in the Syrian war. It is not, and has not been, civil as some have previously noted. It has always been about Sunni interference in a predominantly Shiite country both for religious reasons as well as for King Oil. The only foreign power actually invited into the conflict has been Russia, whose help was requested by Assad.

Yes, yes, yes. Assad is a murdering bastard. So were Gaddafi and Saddam; probably others as well (definitely including the House of Saud). Look at the benefit (/s) bequeathed by Neocon overthrow of these and other ME regimes. Hundreds of thousands killed, millions displaced, billions looted, trillions wasted. To what gain for humanity? I exclude the MIC/oligarchy/billionaires from humanity because they lack any semblance of empathy = sociopathy.

It is useful to examine the Syrian War tale. Let's start with the AUMF--or really the lack of one for our war in Syria. Spineless Barack Hussein Obama feebly tried to get an AUMF to attack Syria but he couldn't muster the legislative power to back him. So, he just said: "screw it, I'm going to do it anyway". The equally spineless Congress did nothing--nothing to help and certainly nothing to hinder.

Then the inevitable mission creep evolved. Right now this mission is having trouble because with Trump in office, there clearly is no mission. This is the focus of my essay as will be explained below.

Before the Trumposaurus could get in office, O'Bomber made the situation progressively worse. Red lines in the sand, gassing people with our own left over Sarin from Libya and other places, etc. Yes, killing in the name of peace!

First we must dispense with the hypocritical protestations against these hypocritical protestations against what I contend is really only a pseudo-provocation.

Here is where I am a contrarian. It is commonly accepted not only by the MSM, Dem establishment and even people here that Trump is stupid. This is false. He may be crazy. He may be inconsistent. He may be a liar. But he'd is not stupid. People who write him off as an idiot or buffoon, which no doubt he often does appear to be should be mindful of two things:

1. Trump overcame obstacles every bit as serious as those Bernie faced, and sadly failed to overcome. The MSM, who helped create this Frankenstein monster, was no longer to contain him. Medusa's "I'm not Trump" monotone campaign utterly failed (losing $ 1.4 B in the process). So, Trump, narcissist as he may be be, outwitted all the "smart people" including the Deep State.

Putin is not a nice fellow but he is a consummate politician. Were he not so, WW3 would already have been a reality. Had there been a Russian equivalent of the Evil Queen, we would all be glowing in the dark (to use Ted Cruz's descriptive phrase).

Why am I talking about Putin? That is to illustrate how Putin is carefully maneuvering through a sea of difficulties including international sanctions, depressed oil prices, NATO infringement on his borders, resurgent (Ukranian) Nazis, hard liners from Russia's own Deep State. As I said, Putin is doing a masterful job at preserving both himself and Mother Russia.

2. Quoting from Sun Tzu's Art of War: "Make the enemy think you are crazy". Trump is inconsistent, horrible, but not crazy.

Consider Trump's dilemmas, which basically are not too dissimilar to Putin's--except on perhaps a larger scale.

A. Deep State
B. "Resist" movement
C. Islamic jihadists (largely of our own making)
D. Xenophobia
E. Truly weak economic recovery with the 99% benefitting little, it at all
F. McCain-Graham wing of GOP
G. Rand Paul wing of GOP
H. Unsustainable military growth
I. Supine, spineless but noisy opposition party
J. NeoCons salivating with bloodlust
K. Desire to have better relations with Russia

In other words, he is facing the political equivalent of being draw-and-quartered. I contend that Trump, having little room for maneuver, has just played a brilliant political move.

1. He warned Putin in advance of the action
2. The Tomahawks did surprisingly little strategic damage
3. He has sucked in ISIS to take advantage of illusory gains in their favor
4. He has temporarily satiated the NeoCons
5. He throws a bone to the MIC
5 A. He gives the MIC a lot to worry about as to why the hit ratio was less than 50%.
6. He has committed no ground troops to Syria
7. He buys time for the Ricegate to gnaw his enemies to death

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Alligator Ed's picture

30 minutes after publishing this essay, I came across this video:

[video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o88f0rAVfwE]

Although he takes a somewhat differing viewpoint than mine, we both agree that this move was NOT an escalation. Here are some quotes from his video.

This "attack" just helps Trump maintain control.

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@Alligator Ed
may have been intended to convey, I doubt that it affected the R+6 intentions and strategies much at all. If it accomplished anything, it could only have been to give Putin even more reason for augmenting and reinforcing Russia's military support of Assad.

The US lapdog media naturally blows this event way up out of proportion (while simultaneously getting the facts all wrong) and Trump gets to bask in the resulting accolades -- which he considers to be only his due. Militarily, the attack had little to no effect. It cost US taxpayers somewhere north of one hundred million dollars, but I guess that's chump change for our ultra-patriotic, and well-endowed masters of war.

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native

Alligator Ed's picture

@native

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@Alligator Ed

Primarily Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Hezbollah, maybe some Kurds.

"The Russia–Syria–Iran–Iraq coalition (RSII coalition), also referred to as 4+1 (in which the "plus one" refers to Hezbollah of Lebanon),[1] is a joint intelligence-sharing cooperation between opponents of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)[2] with operation rooms in Syria's Damascus and Iraq's Green Zone in Baghdad.[3][4] It was formed as a consequence of an agreement reached at the end of September 2015 between Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria to "help and cooperate in collecting information about the terrorist Daesh group" (ISIL) with a view to combatting the advances of the group, according to the statement issued by the Iraqi Joint Operations Command.[5][6][7] The statement also cited "the increasing concern from Russia about thousands of Russian terrorists committing criminal acts within ISIS."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Syria%E2%80%93Iran%E2%80%93...

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native

Alligator Ed's picture

@native These mind-numbing acronyms get to me.

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@Alligator Ed

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native

earthling1's picture

I look for Putin to claim his missiles have a 98% kill rate. Then mic drop.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

I still think it was fat-headed, but since he warned Assad, I kinda wonder if he thought that this would get the neo-cons to back off a bit...

But is it true that 7 people died in the missile attack? So many different stories floating around...

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

Alligator Ed's picture

@Ellen North killing 7 people is no more noticeable than stepping on an ant. Had he wanted, this so-called escalation could have begun with shock and awe. Of course that would immediately for the Bear to retaliate. Putin's too smart for this and so is Trump.

Sun Tzu: "underrate your enemy [is] to your peril."

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@Alligator Ed

Personally, I generally try not step on ants. But then, I figure they have a right to be outside, running free, their antennae flowing in the breeze...

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

@Ellen North

on my doorstep. We have some pretty aggressive ants here in New Mexico.

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native

@native

I see your point. And feel your pain, if bitten... Ours are mostly little and rarely seen indoors.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

mimi's picture

had the nerves and capacity to read the legislative texts that are introduced in Congress. Thanks for the front page of the AUFM of 2013 too.

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Is that the guy is a classic carny conman type. He's not as smart as his bluster or supporters might want to make him seem, but he's crafty. Part of being crafty is letting others think you're the idiot. As you pointed out, he ran the boards on the GOP who clearly didn't take him seriously and then he did the same thing with the Democrats because they made the same mistake!

We can point and laugh and at his business and personal failings, but notice who always manages to come out on top in those dealings. This is what worries me ultimately. What is his goal? He always seems to get what he wants, usually personal or brand enrichment, at the cost of anyone stupid enough to enter a deal with him.

It almost makes me more nervous about this current military adventure because I think with anyone else, we could be confident it's the typical Deep State/MIC/petrochemical reasons for why now. Maybe so with Trump, but the guy functions to please only himself, so we'll only know long after the grift has happened. (Not like any reason is good, especially assuming all the evidence pointing towards this being false flag is true.)

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Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.

Alligator Ed's picture

@Dr. John Carpenter not just the American people, but the Chinese and the Russians. And does he ever go after the Chinese who produce his clothing and finance some of his deals. This is classic. Hillary wishes she could be such a good bullshitter but most everyone can see through her crap. Half the country has caught on to Trump--give them time. In the meantime, he is initiating a fine job of splintering the Republican party, just as Medusa is doing with the Democrats. If, and this is a big IF, we survive that long, the 2018 elections may be transformative in the number and relative strengths of the then extant political parties.

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@Dr. John Carpenter

This is what worries me ultimately. What is his goal?

For me it seems his goal is business, deals, increased wealth, putting more Americans back to work in jobs paying enough so they can buy stuff, travel, go out to lavish parties and restaurants, play golf.

I have a hard time thinking his goal is to demonstrate the usefulness of nuclear weapons, Ashton Carter's goal. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter is a certified lunatic, a psychopath, a sociopath, an insane person. You'd have to be a sociopath to be a career nuclear weapons procurement specialist and to propose making nuclear weapons "more useful". He's sick. But he's not Trump.

What's scary is that Trump is surrounded by these mass murderers, CIA, Neocon, Council on Foreign Relations world war mass assassins in suits more expensive than Trump's. If he gets mesmerized by these killers, because they took him out to a good lunch, or because they project their other-worldly importance and deep knowledgeableness on him, he appears to have a tendency to be pulled around.

That's what scares me about Trump.

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Alligator Ed's picture

@Linda Wood on his no regime change promises. As I state in this essay, this maneuver has bought him some time for other things. Other contrarians have reach differing conclusions about what this all means, but they agree with my thesis that Trump is NOT going to escalate. New essay forthcoming.

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ggersh's picture

Trump is hillary in man's clothing, the CFR has it's paws
on everything.

http://www.defenddemocracy.press/third-world-war-the-beginning/

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I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

Alligator Ed's picture

@ggersh The author proposes a three-sided power structure ruling the U.S., and by extension, lots of the globe. The general supposition is that this is the beginning of a series of escalating events in Syria which foreseeably might lead to WW3. Thus, only time will tell.

If we retreat, the war has all the chances of ending quickly and with minimal losses. but this would mean our surrender with all the consequences. Not to mention Crimea, which is ours only as long as we are ourselves. We only have to back up a step for our solipsistic picture to collapse.

I agree with the first part. But how is Crimea ours by any stretch of the imagination? Russia doesn't think so and have taken steps to prove that Crimea is not at our disposal. The Russians will not give up their main Black Sea port, their window to the Mediterranean. If they did, the country would shrivel and die--AND they know it as do we.

For my contrarian view (and I am not alone in this), it will be only a matter of weeks or 2 months before we find out. Watch for reactions from Putin, Assad, and even the feeble EU. For a useful weathervane at how things are going. If NYT and CNN are happy about what's going on then we are in deep trouble. When they start blasting Trump for being "too slow" to follow through, they will be mad--but the rest of us should feel relieved.

I still contend this action served to buy Trump time, mollify Neocons/deep state while waiting for Ricegate to start dragging down Deep State/Obama. If Congress (mainly the House) initiates hearing on Ricegate, powered by subpoenas and occurring under oath, then I will be more reassured as to which way this thing is going.

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ggersh's picture

@Alligator Ed I'll always defer to animals of the swamp rather than the swamp drainers*pardon*

Something tells me that their is communication between the clintons/trumps going on
behind the scenes and your conclusion to watch CNN and NYT is spot on.

with hillary we would be saying "told you so", with trump we haven't a clue, but in
connecting dots, Ocare has been saved, North Korea has been warned and Assad you're
at the 2 minute warning? bad analogy, as of now we have hillary in trump clothing.

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I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

CB's picture

@Alligator Ed
He's a Russian nut-job that has been labelled "Putin's brain". Contrary to western propaganda, Putin has never even met the man and history has proven he has never followed Dugin's advice. Some of his ideas are interesting but most are too far out in left field. I compare him to a rabid Russian neocon with religious fervor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin

Aleksandr Gelyevich Dugin (Russian: Алекса́ндр Ге́льевич Ду́гин; born 7 January 1962) is a Russian political scientist known for his fascist views[4][5][6] who calls to hasten the "end of times" with all out war.[7][8][9][10][11] He has close ties with the Kremlin and the Russian military,[12][13] having "served as an advisor to State Duma speaker Gennadiy Seleznyov[14] and key member of the ruling United Russia party Sergei Naryshkin.[15] However, commentators dispute his influence: in the words of journalist Alexander Nevzorov, "if we had had Sergey Kurginyan and Dugin instead of Putin, there would have been hell for all of us to pay, they would have unleashed a European and World War without a shadow of a doubt, without considering consequences at all."[16] But "Dugin and Kurginyan do not have the slightest impact on what is going on in the Kremlin and do not even get coaching there".[16] Dugin was the leading organizer of the National Bolshevik Party, National Bolshevik Front, and Eurasia Party. He is the author of more than 30 books, among them Foundations of Geopolitics (1997) and The Fourth Political Theory (2009).
...
Loss of department headship

During the conflict in Ukraine, Dugin also lost his post as Head of the Department of Sociology of International Relations of Moscow State University.[38][64] In 2014, a petition entitled "We demand the dismissal of MSU Sociology Faculty Professor A. G. Dugin!" was signed by over 10,000 people and sent to the MSU rector Viktor Sadovnichiy.[65] The petition was started after Dugin in an interview expressed his opinion on how to deal with Ukrainians ("Kill them, kill them, kill them. There should not be any more conversations. As a professor, I consider it so.").[66] Dugin claimed to have been fired from this post; the university claimed the offer of a department chairmanship resulted from a technical error and that he would remain a professor under contract until September 2014.[38] Dugin wrote the statement of resignation from the faculty because it was necessary to be reappointed to the Moscow State University, but the appointment did not happen, so as a result he is no longer a staff member of the faculty and a staff member of the Moscow State University.[21]
...

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Big Al's picture

@Alligator Ed He's speaking as a Russian, from a Russian's viewpoint.

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Putin wants it too. If there are no resources to exploit, there would be no death and destruction. I wish we could stop the reliance on oil, now.

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Beware the bullshit factories.

thanatokephaloides's picture

@Timmethy2.0

If there are no resources to exploit, there would be no death and destruction.

I wish that were true. It isn't.

For example, there are no resources in Yemen, but plenty of death and destruction going on there.....

Sad

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

@thanatokephaloides

https://moraloutrage.wordpress.com/2010/01/20/why-the-u-s-interest-in-ye...

Why the U.S. interest in Yemen? Hint: Yemen is an Oil Chokepoint

The strategic significance of the region between Yemen and Somalia is a point of geopolitical interest.

It is the site of Bab el-Mandab, one of what the US Government lists as seven strategic world oil shipping chokepoints. The US Government Energy Information Agency states that “closure of the Bab el-Mandab could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal/Sumed pipeline complex, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa. The Strait of Bab el-Mandab is a chokepoint between the horn of Africa and the Middle East, and a strategic link between the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.”

Oil and other exports from the Persian Gulf must pass through Bab el-Mandab before entering the Suez Canal. In 2006, the Energy Department in Washington reported that an estimated 3.3 million barrels a day of oil flowed through this narrow waterway to Europe, the United States, and Asia.

An excuse for a US or NATO militarization of the waters around Bab el-Mandab would give Washington another major link in its pursuit of control of the seven most critical oil chokepoints around the world, a major part of any future US strategy aimed at denying oil flows to China, the EU or any region or country that opposes US policy.

Given that significant flows of Saudi oil pass through Bab el-Mandab, a US military control there would serve to deter the Saudi Kingdom from becoming serious about transacting future oil sales with China or others no longer in dollars, as was recently reported by UK Independent journalist Robert Fisk. It would also be in a position to threaten China’s oil transport from Port Sudan on the Red Sea just north of Bab el-Mandab, a major lifeline in China’s national energy needs.

In addition to its geopolitical position as a major global oil transit chokepoint, Yemen is reported to hold some of the world’s greatest untapped oil reserves. Perhaps there is more to Washington’s recent Yemen concern than a rag-tag al-Qaeda whose very existence as a global terror organization has been doubted by seasoned Islamic experts. ...

When they say they're 'bringing democracy' to the world, it's another example that words don't carry the same meaning for them... and neither does life itself.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

Alligator Ed's picture

@Ellen North You should post that as Joke of the Day.

Lol

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@Alligator Ed

I started a joke which started the whole world crying...

I don't think I could handle the responsibility for this.

Not a huge Bee Gees fan but:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHTO_KGFlsQ

Bee Gees - I Started A Joke (Lyrics)

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

@Timmethy2.0

Well, as far as I recall, a Russian corporation was invited in; the US corporations/PTB can't have that!

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

accusing Trump of being a traitor for giving Russia a warning ahead of the missiles? Maybe when they learn more than half of them were intercepted and destroyed by Russia? * the intercept is not a fact. Yet.*

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Alligator Ed's picture

@on the cusp why > 60% of the Tomahawks failed. I would think this will call for some serious soul-searching (if war mongers can be said to possess such) as to why such a major failure like that occurred. It just wasn't due to navigational failure. And even if it were, why?

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@Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed

It does take a fair bot of skill to throw a Tomahawk.

I trust they didn't use the Boomerangs by mistake?

Edit: was going to fix a rather odd typo of what was supposed to be 'bit' above, but then realized that these would be tossed by a computerized program, making 'bot' rather appropriate, especially for the nation which has 17 spy agencies and what - thousands? - of private companies all busily spying on its own public in case someone powerful ever wants to 'adapt' something in their private conversation as an excuse for kidnapping them to be held incognito and indefinitely without trial - but possibly with torture used until the victims make up something the torturers think they can use to perhaps attack another country until they run out of fresh ones to ruin...

Lol, the US is so much worse than the old Soviets, how can anyone possibly think that pretending that they're still running Russia could possibly scare anyone?

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

Alligator Ed's picture

@Ellen North Somebody at the Pentagram got some 'splainin' to do

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@Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed

True.

But maybe the people actually launching them didn't want the terrorists to win?

Edit: actually, would it really be all that surprising if the MIC, like the financial industry, started selling the military smoke and mirrors, many of which vanish upon use, rather than real products? Or perhaps the missiles are outsourced to Malaysian or other slave labour sources where the workers are too miserable to care about quality, so that many come unstitched half-way out? You just can't get quaity anymore...

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

@Ellen North
as many as they charged us for.

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@Linda Wood

Lol, bet you're right. They probably sold/gifted most of them to the terrorists already.

Just wait, shortly the 'interesting times' we live in will be attributed to an old Chinese curse and termed 'an act of war meriting nuking'...

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

Alligator Ed's picture

@Ellen North into the Mediterranean, so they could be replaced by newer, more expensive ones. And Ellen North has a good point, too, about exaggerating the number fired, so as to have more "arms for hostages" or some such.

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edg's picture

as Democrats marvel at what a strong leader Trump has become.

1muwyh.jpg

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Alligator Ed's picture

@edg Such a turnaround in opinion is exactly the thing with which Trump can buy some more time. I'll have another bowl of dirty Rice please.

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