A complete and utter disaster in the making

Climate change still being used as a political football even it is not a scientific one

In the remote reaches of Antarctica, the South Pole Observatory carbon dioxide observing station cleared 400 ppm on May 23, according to an announcement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Wednesday. That’s the first time it’s passed that level in 4 million years (no, that’s not a typo).
There’s a lag in how carbon dioxide moves around the atmosphere. Most carbon pollution originates in the northern hemisphere because that’s where most of the world’s population lives. That’s in part why carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hit the 400 ppm milestone earlier in the northern reaches of the world.

Squabbling over the demerits of Hillary and Trump seems almost irrelevant compared to the ogre in the room.

There has been a total political kicking the trash can down the road for at least thirty years, paperwork not withstanding.

Some Quotes from NASA scientists

Passing the 400 mark reminds me that we are on an inexorable march to 450 ppm and much higher levels. These were the targets for 'stabilization' suggested not too long ago. The world is quickening the rate of accumulation of CO2, and has shown no signs of slowing this down. It should be a psychological tripwire for everyone.

– Dr. Michael Gunson

Reaching 400pm is a stark reminder that the world is still not on a track to limit CO2 emissions and therefore climate impacts. We're still on the 'business-as-usual' path, and adding more and more CO2, which will impact the generations ahead of us. Passing this mark should motivate us to advocate for focused efforts to reduce emissions across the globe.

– Dr. Annmarie Eldering

Business as usual says it all really.

The last time we were at this level

The Pliocene is the geologic era between five million and three million years ago. Scientists have come to regard it as the most recent period in history when the atmosphere’s heat-trapping ability was as it is now and thus as our guide for things to come.

Recent estimates suggest CO2 levels reached as much as 415 parts per million (ppm) during the Pliocene. With that came global average temperatures that eventually reached 3 or 4 degrees C (5.4-7.2 degrees F) higher than today’s and as much as 10 degrees C (18 degrees F) warmer at the poles. Sea level ranged between five and 40 meters (16 to 131 feet) higher than today.

What that means is that Earth might react even more strongly to the increases in CO2 measured by the Keeling Curve. Several prominent questions remain to be answered, though, before accurate scenarios can be created. The extreme speed at which carbon dioxide concentrations are increasing is unprecedented. An increase of 10 parts per million might have needed 1,000 years or more to come to pass during ancient climate change events. Now the planet is poised to reach the 1,000 ppm level in only 100 years if emissions trajectories remain at their present level.

We are in unknown territory.

The is a global challenge and needs a global "space race" style programme.

The other questions that should be being posed are:
When my coastal city is underwater where do I go?
Wouldn't it be cheaper to do something now?

These are not questions relating to some distant future but are here and now.

Mass population exodus from low lying areas leading to riots and wars. [hundreds of millions of people]
Current major agricultural production zones now fallow, riots, rationing and starvation
The frequency of major weather events as every year goes by.
Mass species extinction event rates increasing, whole food webs destroyed.

The original article ends

“Just because we have an agreement doesn’t mean the problem (of climate change) is solved,” Tans said.

I would say that we have a piece of paper about as worthless as Neville Chamberlain's and as dangerous since many seem to claim/believe that it had already saved the planet.

“The hollow cheering of success at the end of the Paris Agreement proved yet again that people will hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. What they disregarded were the deadly flaws lying just beneath its veneer of success,” the academics write in the the letter, also signed by Dr Alan Gadian of the University of Leeds and Professor Paul Beckwith of the University of Ottowa in Canada.

What people wanted to hear was that an agreement had been reached on climate change that would save the world while leaving lifestyles and aspirations unchanged. The solution it proposes is not to agree on an urgent mechanism to ensure immediate cuts in emissions, but to kick the can down the road.

The authors don’t dispute the huge diplomatic achievement of the Paris Agreement – getting 195 world leaders to sign up to a global warming target of between 1.5C to 2C and pledging action to cut carbon emissions.

But they say the actions agreed are far too weak to get anywhere close to that target. Furthermore, the pledges countries have made to cut their carbon emissions are not sufficiently binding to ensure they are met, while the Paris Agreement will not force them to “rachet” them up as often as they need to.

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Pricknick's picture

was nothing more than a bullshit, feel good adventure from the start.
The only thing they accomplished was pulling the wool further over the eyes of the sheep.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Ken in MN's picture

..."Hey, it's a start!" The realist in me says, "Too bad it's also going to end there..."

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I want my two dollars!

Just like the ACA was a start.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

Greyhound's picture

conversation and reiterated that there is nothing to worry about, the adults are in charge. We passed the 400PPM milestone in March of 2015, and since then it has continued to climb because nobody has taken any action at all. They got together in Paris and congratulated each other on their back-slapping skills, and triggered another surge in CO2 emissions.

Another pretend solution brought to you by our pretend government. Now, get back to work and pretend that none of it really matters.

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Ken in MN's picture

...when he said he's going to build a wall and Mexico will pay for it. Anybody who's seen the film The Day After Tomorrow (based on the book The Coming Global Superstorm, by Art Bell and Whitley Strieber*) knows what I'm talking about...

(*Yes, I know that Bell and Strieber are considered to be crackpots by some, but their book is accurate in depicting what will happen when thermohaline circulation shuts down as a result of unchecked human activity...)

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I want my two dollars!

Cassiodorus's picture

and the "debate" between the Dems and the Reps was as regards how strong the fence is going to be. That debate was in 2011.

This is the thing, though. Nearly all of the substance surrounding "omigod Trump's a FASCIST!!!" is about stuff that's happening now or that's already happened. Oh, and Clinton's the complete opposite of Trump in climate change, right? Clinton's a Goldwater Girl who pretends to take climate change really seriously but who won't do anything about it and who's spent a fair part of her career promoting global fracking and taking money from the Saudis in quid-pro-quo arrangements, whereas Trump's a closet believer in climate change who proclaims himself a denier.

Meanwhile I"m stuck on Billy Preston:

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

MarilynW's picture

The fence is an environmental disaster.
Warnings from 2007 but who cared?

The Environmental Impacts of a Border Fence

A group of Arizona park and refuge managers, wildlife biologists, and conservationists has charged that building a wall along the US–Mexican border to keep illegal immigrants and drug smugglers out of the United States will fragment the Sonoran Desert ecosystem, damage the desert's plant and animal communities, and prevent the free movement of wildlife between the United States and Mexico. A border wall would affect any animal along the border that “walks, crawls, or slithers,” argues Brian Segee, a staff attorney with Washington, DC–based Defenders of Wildlife. “Anything that doesn't fly would find its routes blocked.”Actually, low-flying birds such as the cactus ferruginous pygmy owl might be affected as well.

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To thine own self be true.

Lookout's picture

We need a carbon tax yesterday, and the only real solution is "Leave It In The Ground"!

So many problems of the world could be solved with a global effort to slow climate change. Sadly the greed of the fuelish corporations will not allow this needed effort. Imagine if the world were to unite to fight against this common enemy. Someone recently said we need to approach climate change like WWIII and throw all our efforts in that direction. I guess we can hope and do what we can as individuals.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Hawkfish's picture

Check out I-732 for more information.

Oh, and guess who the opposition statement was written by? You might think it was Koch brothers' minions, but actually it is a bunch of local establishment Dems.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Cassiodorus's picture

is something I advocated back in 2009. I will have a paper out in April 2017 if not earlier that argues, among other things, that a carbon tax is practically insignificant as a measure for mitigating climate change. What's necessary is a makeover for the whole civilization, while a carbon tax is stuck in the whole mentality of "economic incentives" for people whose primary economic incentive is to run planet Earth into the ground.

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

To this market caused disaster.

The very notion of a carbon tax solution is just one more tool to keep our wrong headed energy extraction profiteering going swimmingly for a few more years. It's delusional.

The question is, can our collective Babel of governments step up and do what's necessary, because big business and the 1% sure as hell aren't going to.

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Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will somehow work for the benefit of all."
- John Maynard Keynes

Greyhound's picture

this notion that we can consume our way out of destroying the biosphere. The grand illusion they keep spinning serves only one purpose, to keep us from noticing who is doing all of these things.

>There's a class war, alright, and it's my class, the rich class that's waging it and we're winning. - Warren Buffett 1998

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Lookout's picture

The trick is how to deal with the corporate profit mongers. The oligarchy will fight tooth and nail.

I think so much of their fear is tied to the decentralized nature of home-made power. Like everyone having a solar hydrogen generator fueled by water and producing water upon burning. So you would have your own backyard H2 station. It frightens the profit mongers on many levels.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

As the earth warms, methane sequestered in the permafrost and in the oceans will be sent into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas on the order of 25X more potent than CO2 but doesn't stay in the atmosphere as long. Methane stays in the atmosphere long enough to do very much damage though.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

earthling1's picture

I can see a five year burst of extreme methane concentration destroying most life. Anyone able to control their own closed environment for that long would, essentially, inherits what's left.
Makes one wonder why the Billionaire class refuses to do anything about climate change.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

Haikukitty's picture

http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2008/02/26/ghg_lifetimes/

So while i know some rich are investing in luxury bunkers, I believe that's pretty short-sighted of them.

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According to IPCC (and every chemist), it's about 12 years.
See Table 1 here: https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/016.htm

That doesn't make it benign. Over a 20-year period, methane is 84-86x as potent a greenhouse gas as is carbon dioxide. So far, there is a lot less of it in the atmosphere. But warming is very likely going to change that. And it could be quite soon.

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EdMass's picture

3 to 5 million years ago?

Who says that?

Don't you know the earth was created 6 thousand years ago and we used to walk with Dinosaurs, just like Jurassic Park?

Let's keep up, shall we?

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Prof: Nancy! I’m going to Greece!
Nancy: And swim the English Channel?
Prof: No. No. To ancient Greece where burning Sapho stood beside the wine dark sea. Wa de do da! Nancy, I’ve invented a time machine!

Firesign Theater

Stop the War!

divineorder's picture

Jakkalbessie and I fly for our annual month of camping in Kruger National Park in order observe and photograph the disappearing wildlife here.

It's an addiction of sorts, and probably an admission that all is lost because of my individual and our collective inability to stop the whirlwind.

We have made some life changes back in the USSA, could do more. Turned 67 here in Kruger earlier this month and continue to be guilty of psychic numbing about current reality and the future.

The effects of the epic drought here over the last couple of years are not pretty, and layoffs in South Africa outside Kruger will surely lead to more poaching pressure. Overgrazing is evident even to our laypersons' eyes. At least the lions and hyenas are doing well, for now, but for how much longer?

IMG_2115.JPG

We have a magic time of it here, have sightings that many South Africans say are very rare. On this trip we have seen TWO black rhino of the very few left on the planet alive. Very close. Very thankful, wish could do more for them. Not sure how much longer that they disappear from the wild.

Another of the high points of the trips so far was when we were able to see some endangered cheetah up close. This photo is cropped, was early in the morning, but thought would share the drama of the scene.

IMG_0202.JPG

So much hangs in the balance....

Namaste.

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

Haikukitty's picture

every time I read about this issue, and the way we are NOT dealing with any of it.

It's crushing, and I can't think about it for long.

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divineorder's picture

We support the work of WildEarth Guardians, volunteer, plant trees, give some change to them. That keeps us sane because have to do something.

https://www.facebook.com/WildEarthGuardians/photos/a.133850599961310.237...

WildEarth Guardians
2 hrs ·

Join us next Thursday June 23 in Grand Junction, Colorado as we call on the Obama Administration to keep our coal in the ground and help western communities transition. Let's do this!

Read more, http://wg.convio.net/site/MessageViewer

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

divineorder's picture

We support the work of WildEarth Guardians, volunteer, plant trees, give some change to them. That keeps us sane because have to do something.

https://www.facebook.com/WildEarthGuardians/photos/a.133850599961310.237...

WildEarth Guardians
2 hrs ·

Join us next Thursday June 23 in Grand Junction, Colorado as we call on the Obama Administration to keep our coal in the ground and help western communities transition. Let's do this!

Read more, http://wg.convio.net/site/MessageViewer

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

I have not been back for a few years due to various wars in the area but every year you could see the increasing desertification.

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divineorder's picture

the flooding damage will be like. Lots going on in France just now, apparently.

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

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mimi's picture

your experience would be a valuable contribution, as you have a before and after kind of view.

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divineorder's picture

much longer it will be that we can do this. Will South Africa, Europe, or the US implode? Will the ecosystems in Kruger totally collapse in the next few months like appears possible? Standing by....

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

Ravensword's picture

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WoodsDweller's picture

Our civilization can only accommodate modest, incremental change that doesn't disrupt the status quo. If it doesn't make somebody rich, we can't do it.
Unfortunately, the window for that closed about 70 years ago. Collectively, humanity took the wrong path coming out of WW2. Widespread industrialization and unchecked population growth set up this catastrophe. Instead of America becoming a nation where everyone had a car and was able to live an hour's drive from where they worked, we needed to build a nation where nobody needs a car.
Rapid, radical, revolutionary change. Now. Not a few elections down the road.
It's going to take all the money there is (and that won't be enough), so forget about private wealth. It needs to the the first and last issue at every meeting, in every speech. Maybe we can walk and chew gum at the same time and address some other issues in addition to this, but nothing else can take precedence. Everything needs to be on the table, in particular capitalism and industrial civilization.
And what we need most of all is to buy time. Shut down fossil fuel production, transform agriculture so that we can feed people when conventional agriculture fails. Do everything we can to pull as many people through this as we can. The key question for every denier, everyone who has their pet issue which is oh so important is "what do you think you're going to eat?". Famine isn't just for anonymous brown people in far off lands. When drought and Death Valley heat waves hit even the billionaires will kill for a can of beans.
I'm sure Mr. Build the Wall or Ms. I Can Work With Republicans To Save Wall Street will be just the leaders we need.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Lily O Lady's picture

controlled greenhouses and control of all the fresh water they'll want. In their world bad things happen to other people. Except cancer. Gotta get right on that!

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"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

WoodsDweller's picture

are a hopeless cause. I'm sure many of them think exactly this, for example Larry Ellison's Lanai project. Unfortunately, it won't work. This isn't something that will just blow over, we need a solution to keep people alive for thousands of years while we sort this out and geoengineer the planet back to one that supports human life. Maintaining and expanding technical civilization over that time span takes hundreds of millions of people, not hundreds. Of course, the sociopaths in charge only care about a decade or two of their own comfort, and they can probably accomplish that, but no more.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Roy Blakeley's picture

in March and I have been a net electric power producer since then. I am not sure whether or not it will be a great investment, but it will likely be a better investment than contributions to the DNC.

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divineorder's picture

the solar grid tie was the first in the old west county seat town in TX and they had to create an ordinance to deal with it. Not near enough, would have been more efficient to have put in new windows and insulation etc but hey...

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

for a living 15-20 years ago. I remarked on forums even then about how the increasingly weird swings in temperature and "global warming" related composition were terrifying omens. I was often ridiculed for being alarmist. Well Ha Ha looks like I actually was right. Only it ain't funny. I laugh because it's a coping mechanism. We've known about this stuff for decades. The knuckle-draggers in this country resisting scientific evidence is one of the worst of their victories.

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in the 1960s and it was there that the feedback loop of decreased reflectivity in polar regions leading to warmer temperatures was first seriously studied. There were several international conferences on the problem that far back.

Congrats on being correct and voicing your findings. It's tough to be right and be ignored but there were(are) rich and powerful forces allied against science.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

Cassiodorus's picture

Moreover, it pushes culpability for the current crisis upon "humans" in general, when in fact the problem is capital -- the predominant form of power in our era. Confusing the problem further is that there's no consensus as to when the "anthropocene" began.

Capitalocene, not "anthropocene."

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

Cassiodorus's picture

Moreover, it pushes culpability for the current crisis upon "humans" in general, when in fact the problem is capital -- the predominant form of power in our era. Confusing the problem further is that there's no consensus as to when the "anthropocene" began.

Capitalocene, not "anthropocene."

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"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama

dewley notid's picture

Hillary's incremental steps, whatever they may be, might have helped if they'd been started during the Carter administration. And as we all know, most everything Hillary has touched since at least when Bill was elected has resulted in one step up and two steps back.

I'd have voted for Bernie (and hope to do so again) regardless but when he stated unequivocally that climate change is the most pressing issue we're all facing today, I decided it was Bernie or Bust. I know of no other office holder or candidate from either major party who has had the cajones to say that publicly. Even among those who do acknowledge that climate change is serious, they all seem to think like Hillary, that taking baby steps will save us. Whether they think this way because they just aren't able to understand, or because they're beholden to their owners is of no concern to me. They're screwing us all either way. Anything other than bold, mandatory and wildly-unpopular measures will have any meaningful affect at this point.

I'll turn 65 yrs. old in a couple of weeks. Though I didn't keep a log I can say without hesitation that I've spent more time outdoors than indoors during those 65 years. Except for a two-year stint at a printshop when I was fresh out of school every minute of my work career has been spent outdoors, and all my leisure-time pursuits likewise. I quipped to one denier recently that "I've slept outside more hours than you've BEEN outside." Few people from outside the state of Tennessee had even heard of Al Gore when I first started noticing that nature-related things were starting to go sideways, and it didn't take a rocket scientist to see that man was the cause. The ongoing scientific research and studies have now explained how things have already become worse than I could have imagined back then.

So what do we do? I'm out of ideas; I've been shouting from the rooftops for nearly 40 years, and it seems mostly I've wasted my breath. People nod their heads as if they agree with me, all the while having televisions on in three different rooms and nobody watching any of them. Running the washer and dryer for one item because they just have to wear that one shirt or blouse when they go out on the town. Automatic doors on our shopping malls and grocery stores which open when anyone comes near, letting the heat out during the winter and letting it back in during the summer. Driving the biggest Ford Expedition or Chevy Subdivision because they like the comfort and the room. And always driving 15 mph over the posted speed limit, because...well, just because. The list goes on and on; so much needless fossil fuel consumption it's sinful. We're a spoiled bunch, we "first-world" humans.

Do we wait for politicians to get wise? Not much chance of that. I sometimes wish I were a born-again Christian. Then I could say, as they do, that if "it" happens it'll be god's will and that's always a good thing.

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Nature is my religion; the earth is my temple.

Haikukitty's picture

I find myself wishing I was older than I am, so I'd live to see less of it.

It's not even the dying or the suffering that bothers me the most (though of course they do bother me), it's watching my beloved Nature deteriorate and species go extinct. It's too heartbreaking to bear.

Of course the planet as a whole will survive, and many species will survive as well. Life will go on, but not as we've known it unless we make drastic changes NOW.

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Greyhound's picture

than cockroaches. Planets come with a reset, life does not.

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Haikukitty's picture

I only meant the planet and some kind of life will survive, even if its microbiotic life. Eventually, given enough time, other creatures may evolve on the planet again.

But we won't be here to see it, and it won't be any life we'd recognize.

For a depressing but good book related to this topic, have you read Evolution by Stephen Baxter?
I both loved it and hated it, but it does a really good job of proving that we are not guaranteed to survive.

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Greyhound's picture

that reality isn't real. A former BIL worked at NOAA his entire career and we were talking about this when I was a teenager. Carl Sagan did a whole segment on this in the original Cosmos. Each time it has been brought up, we have chosen to listen to liars and thieves over the people that know.

It seems we prefer fantasy to reality, so as long as there is anyone willing to tell us what we want to hear, we will choose to follow them. Kind of counter-evolutionary, ain't it?

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WoodsDweller's picture

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

leonamarie's picture

The realization that we have truly tipped over the edge and that much of what I see as beautiful will be gone before I die breaks my heart. My son and I spent nine days touring the eastern half of my beloved Oregon in April. It was infuriating to see multi million dollar enclaves (sp?) above small towns that are collapsing, and lush ranches across the road from scorched earth former small farms. The Malheur Wildlife Refuge is so beautiful, but water levels are crushingly low and the wildfowl are suffering. We drove through miles and miles of beetle kill pine forest and douglas firs are beginning to show the damage. Sadly, I will live to know much more worldwide death and destruction of all species before my final breath.

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I no longer believe in the religion of progress

We had a national 55mph Maximum speed limit.....

a non enforceable 80F minimum air conditioning set temp....
and 55F heating set temp....

Cardigans in the Oval Office....
and solar hot water heaters on the WH roof.

Reagan and the RW knuckle draggers pissed it away. Carter was mocked for his cardigan.

Since then? Crickets and token gestures at best.

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Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will somehow work for the benefit of all."
- John Maynard Keynes

At least not until we the tax payers provided a profitable incentive for the greedy.

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Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.