Can Bernie Win? Several Democratic Insiders Think So
What was once considered virtually unthinkable may not necessarily be so. Clearly, many prognosticators were prematurely wrong in writing off Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic Primaries. With the Iowa Caucuses a bit over a month away, the reality is quite different.
Having the most donations, the largest number of donors, and tens of thousands of volunteers ready to spring into action can no longer be ignored. Bernie is a real threat to the Democratic Establishment.
What will they do to fend him off?
Sen. Bernie Sanders' recent surge in national and early-state polls, enthusiastic progressive base, and resilience in the aftermath of his heart attack have reportedly forced some within the Democratic establishment who were previously dismissive of the Vermont senator to concede—both in private and in public—that he could ultimately run away with the party's presidential nomination.
"For months the Vermont senator was written off by Democratic Party insiders as a candidate with a committed but ultimately narrow base who was too far left to win the primary," Politico reported Thursday. "But in the past few weeks, something has changed. In private conversations and on social media, Democratic officials, political operatives, and pundits are reconsidering Sanders' chances."...
"He has a very good shot of winning Iowa, a very good shot of winning New Hampshire, and other than Joe Biden, the best shot of winning Nevada," said Dan Pfeiffer, who served as an adviser to former President Barack Obama. "He could build a real head of steam heading into South Carolina and Super Tuesday."
Meanwhile, this editorial cartoon all's the rage on Reddit. Note Mayo Pete's predatory "McKinsey Look" on his face as Joe Biden's about to cut off his support for Medicare For All.
With fewer than 50 days until the Iowa Caucuses, the two central issues in the 2020 Democratic Primary are healthcare, and defeating President Donald Trump. The latter quite frankly goes without saying, since the whole idea of an opposition candidate in an election is to unseat the incumbent, so anyone who runs mainly on ousting the current President tacitly admits to standing for nothing beyond his or her own vacuous self-advancement.
As for healthcare, this issue has permeated the debate for two reasons: the ultimate ineffectiveness (if not outright failure) of the Affordable Care Act, and the self-described “revolutionary” campaign of Bernie Sanders. Sanders has made Medicare For All his signature policy this cycle, perhaps even eclipsing the broader remonstrations of wealth inequality that have formed the spine of his entire political career, and attacked the topic with his characteristic dogged relentlessness.
Thus, every other Democratic candidate has had to define themselves according to Sanders’ terms on the issue: the few who have agreed with his declaration that healthcare is a human right have generally reaped windfalls in polling and grassroots fundraising—at least up until they began to hedge, like Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris before her, whose once top-tier campaigns began their respective free-falls practically the moment each uttered the usual weasel-words of “access” and “affordable.”
It still remains to be seen if, like Harris, Warren’s decline is terminal.
Comments
"First They Ignore You... "
A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
Axelrod:
He says that like it's not intentional.
Like they just forgot about Bernie among all the other 'second tier' non-approved candidates and are now just discovering him.
So ridiculous.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Look at his political history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Axelrod_%28political_consultant%29
What in his background would prepare him for an honest man in politics?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
The Alternative
A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
Yes we can!
To coin a phrase.
I'm looking at three scenarios.
Low voter turnout looks like the top line polling, as the turnout consists of mainly 50+ aged voters. Biden wins the most delegates through the primaries and has either enough to win on the first ballot at the convention or enough for the super delegates to put him over the top. Even though Biden didn't steal the nomination, low turnout in the primary leads to low turnout in the general and Trump wins.
Medium voter turnout dilutes Biden's share and plays to Sanders' strength in the under-50 voters. Sanders wins the most delegates, but not enough to win on the first ballot. The super delegates give the nomination to second place Biden. Young voters see that their votes don't matter, that the system will install whoever it wants regardless. They tune out of politics for a generation, very low turnout in the general and Trump wins.
High voter turnout lets Sanders' dominant position in the under-50 group give him big wins in most contests. Biden runs out of money and can't compete effectively in the Super Tuesday states and drops out soon after. It comes down to Sanders and Bloomberg, and Bloomberg discovers that there's a pretty low ceiling of Democratic primary voters who are looking for a billionaire to represent them. Sanders rolls into the convention and wins on the first ballot. The under-50 voters see that their votes matter and are Fired Up, Ready to Go (to coin another phrase) for the general. Sanders beats Trump, Democrats expand their majority in the House, and maybe even take the Senate.
Unfortunately, I have no idea who is going to show up on election day. Neither does the media or the pollsters. We'll just have to have an election and count the votes.
EDIT: For what it's worth, I changed my registration so that I can vote for Bernie in the Colorado primary. Registered as a Democrat for the first time in my life. I feel so dirty...
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Scenario Three
Under 50 voters are fired up the impeachment has fired up Trump voters determined the Pelosi and "Comrade Bernie"(as they call him will not steal the election from their True King and Savior. You underestimate their hero worship and the self-loathing amongst the working class (who will not admit they are working class). Also the hornet's nest this contemptible impeachment has stirred up. I'm very disappointed that Bennie signed on.
EDIT:
The lesson drawn from this is (of course) that the Democratic Party must move Right. Do their handlers care if the the (D) party exists? Only as a foil in case the (R) party starts having crazy ideas like A.L. and T.R.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
I always
assume 100% turnout by Republicans. That's why I don't give a fig whether they're fired up or not. They ALWAYS turn out. The ONLY group that matters is the under-50 Democratic voters, existing and new. They stay home and the Republicans win. They turn out and the 100% Republican turnout isn't enough. It's impossible for Republicans to win, but it's easy for Democrats to lose.
And that's why impeachment is so effing brilliant that I can't believe the Democrats went through with it.
Peace be with you, Comrade, the utter collapse of the Republican Party is at hand. All will be cleansed in the fires of Revolution!
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Next December
we will know which of us was right.
But if Biden, Mayo Pete, Harris, Booker or some other garbage is the nominee, I hope you are wrong!
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
We'll have more data in a few days.
Specifically about finances. The campaigns will announce any good news they have by the first, FEC reports will be available 10+ days after that.
Unless Biden really took off after his poor 3rd quarter, he'll be flat broke and unable to compete on Super Tuesday. Name recognition and establishment support only goes so far. I have to think the reason Bloomberg entered the race is because he lost confidence in Biden. If he did, the other donors probably did too.
Harris is already gone. Booker was hanging on by the skin of his teeth a couple of months ago, he probably won't make it past Iowa. Buttigeig isn't really running for President this time, he's raising money for his Governor's run in Indiana in a couple years. Once the campaign burn rate exceeds his fundraising rate he'll drop out to conserve cash. One or two primaries is all he'll bother participating in to preserve options for the future. He's a young man, he has many election cycles ahead of him.
Sanders, Biden (if he finds the money), Warren (she may be below 15% by Iowa the way she's dropping), Steyer and Bloomberg (splitting the "Billionaires are people too" vote). Everyone else takes a Greyhound home.
EDIT: Oh, crap. There's another scenario. It doesn't end up as Sanders vs. Bloomberg. It's Sanders and Warren and Bloomberg. Warren stays in and grabs enough delegates to keep Sanders below 50%. On the second ballot the super delegates and DNC find a way to give the nomination to Bloomberg. Democratic turnout plummets to levels unseen since the Civil War. Fascists sweep into power and America goes dark.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
'Fascists sweep into power and America goes dark' which for
the DNC is still preferable to Bernie becoming President.
"I don't want you, but I need you."
You got me thinking.
And Smokey Robinson summed up my relationship with the Democratic Party
"I wanna leave you, don't wanna stay here Don't wanna spend another day here I wanna split now, I can't quit now You've really got a hold on me"
Is it okay to liken the DP-USA to an unfaithful woman?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
More like an abusive spouse :-P
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Yep
Complete with gaslighting.
This shit is bananas.
Dem voter turnout
was high in the 2018 midterms (ditto for Rs) in which Dems retook the House, and Ds had a very good showing in the various 2019 state/local elections. Very good portents for Ds. And Donald Trump will be on the ballot which will drive turnout to record highs. Very unlikely this will be a low-to-middling turnout year coming up.
Ds just need to at least match R turnout, and work to get more under-30 and AA and Latino voters to the polls. Oh, and have our D nominee show up a few times to campaign in places like WI, MI and PN. Trump's massive campaign warchest won't be enough to overcome voters' dislike and hatred of the wannabe American Mussolini.
From your lips
to Ceiling Cat's ears.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
If Bernie is the Nominee, He Could Win By a Landslide!
No matter how one looks at it, turnout was up substantially in the 2018 Elections -- by age, gender, race, education, etc. The most striking increase was, of course, in voters aged 18-29 years old. in 2020, youth turnout could be decisive!
If Bernie can inspire similar increases in youth turnout, he'll win the presidency. And I predict it won't even be close in both the electoral college and popular count.
Compared to previous elections, one can see the dramatic voting rise in 2018. There aren't enough Trump voters to overcome this advantage. It also means Bernie could have serious coattails and help lower-ballot candidates.
A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
Plus, quite a few orange blob voters indicated
their preference for the Bernster back in 2016. Don't rule them or the Indies out. I am hoping for record breaking turnouts a la 1964. That will be a big clog in the cheating wheel. Rec'd!!
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
@WoodsDweller " Registered as a
" Registered as a Democrat for the first time in my life. I feel so dirty..."
I hear you. Switched from Pacific (Green) Party in Oregon in 2011 to Republican to support Ron Paul - only to have the party establishment do everything to stomp out his candidacy and then have him withdraw from campaigning the day before the primary.
Watching the Dem establishment burn Bernie and diss Jim Webb (who was my first choice) was deja vu all over again.
The once-outstanding Oregon Democrats have become so slimy I hate to be associated with them but was planning to switch to be able to vote for Tulsi G.
Only to have my long (corporate) serving RINO Rep. suddenly announce his retirement.
So. *now* I can be more conflicted because switching back to D means I miss out on being able to vote on his successor.
Argh...
This is the Problem with Closed Primaries ...
… in the two-party system. Often, the key election that determines the eventual officeholder is the primary. Example: back in 2000, I wanted to support McCain over W for the R nomination (where the real contest was), but since I was a registered D here in MD my only choice was Gore vs Bradley. Of course, if you look at the results, McCain beat Bush in every open primary but lost in all the closed primary states (which is where the bulk of delegates are awarded).
Too bad, cuz if McCain had become Prez in 2001 instead of Bush I bet the whole Iraq/Afghanistan/War on Terror business would have played out a lot differently.
Different, yes. Better? No.
John McCain was a bloodthirsty, warmongering fool. With or without 9/11, McCain would have had the world covered in blood while singing his snappy signature tune: “bomb, bomb, bomb - bomb Iran.”
[video:https://youtu.be/y2kyXN4ZVQg]
—
This short video sums up his positions perfectly.
Thank the gods he was never president.
ETA: I completely agree with you about open primaries. I think it’s ridiculous that my taxes fund “public” elections that I’m not allowed to vote in. But I will not register myself as affiliated with any political party.
Because primaries are Party functions
Whereby parties select nominees. It was supposed to be an improvement over the convention system whereby party bosses and "fixers" bribed/threatened delegates into voting for the bosses' choices. Which pretty much demolishes the DNC's asserted legal right to run fixed elections with pre-chosen winners. Why let Republicans pick Dem candidates or vice versa?
What you want are multi-stage general elections which I prefer myself. My other preference is for "none of the above" as a choice in every election, no wins by plurality and if "none of the above" wins, those candidates are barred from future elections that cycle.
But what we want doesn't matter. Over here, all that matters is what the State Governor, the Speaker of the State Assembly, and the Mayor of Chicago want. They should just save money and have the three vote in a meeting and announce the results.
I know. I tried. I was part of a group trying to build an independent Suburban Democratic Party. We thought we had won with a coalition of 80 townships. The Chicago Machine blindsided us by running Republicans and using professional campaigners. We were broken and discarded. C'est la guerre.
EDIT: ???????? There are supposed to be two replies to this post but my browser doesn't show them. More problems with the website?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
A refresher on what happened at the Nevada caucuses
It was outright stolen from Bernie. And with the help from Barbara Boxer another DINO. What if they steal it again? Shades of the '68 convention?
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Same thing as last time.
If they cheat Bernie, the people will throw the election to Trump.
Again.
The Democrat Bosses should be notified about this quid pro quo in advance, so they understand the consequences, including no-votes for senate or congress unless candidates pledge to cut military spending. It's a political strike.
The Democrats believe that they will win the votes of moderate Republicans who are fed-up with Trump in the General Election. This, they believe, will carry their Centrist candidate to victory. But they are in denial about the health care movement.
For years and years, health care security has been the number one concern of the American People. They want a guarantee that they will get the best medical care in the world if a loved one is injured or falls ill, no matter how much money they have. This is a human right and the people want it now.
I think they finally know how the numbers work. The top 30 developed nations deliver world class medicine to their people. Their defense spending budgets averages 5 percent of GNP. Defense spending in the US is now at 57 percent. More than half the Federal revenues from taxpayers is transferred to the US war profiteers. A large portion of it will never be accounted for. This life and death uncertainty hangs over the heads of all Americans. We know this deadly insecurity makes people mentally ill, and is the root cause of American social misery. This mental illness produced a massive spike in Christmas Day family massacres and murder-suicides yesterday.
I think people know what is going on. But just in case, I intend to push this simple reality, relentlessly.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
@Pluto's Republic
Health care costs are about the biggest deterrent I have as an expat/exile/refugee to moving back to the "homeland".
Am agnostic about the ideal solution, but as you point out, the US can't afford the defense/surveillance/intelligence/police state and universal healthcare, too.
FWIW - Japan (where I'm at) covers a lot higher percentage of its population and with better outcomes at under 10% of GDP compared to the US' 16 or 17% (highest in the world, IIRC).
No way to afford a viable system if that is not addressed, too.
IIRC other states control their defense industries
meaning that they are driven by the private for profit wall street companies. I read an article that quoted Putin on this and he said that was why their defense ration was so low. On the eve of the last Russian election he asked what the high point of his tenure was and he said lifting so many out of poverty. On what the low point was he said that so many were still in poverty. And then he lowered the defense budget so he could lift more out of it. Which is a total opposition to what this country does. It keeps raising the amount of defense spending and watching as more and more Americans slip into poverty.
It should be a outright shame that over a half million Americans are homeless, but it is rarely addressed. Not one question was asked about what to do about the rising rate of homelessness here at any of the debates. Instead we get something about rising wealth inequality and Bernie does talk about how many billionaires aren't paying fair shares of taxes. And that over 100 corporations paid no taxes and still received tax refunds. Of course Warren might have a plan for that though. /s.
OF course this country could afford to give us single payer. It is just that they do not want to. Why spend money when it would literally come out of their pockets because their donors would stop bribing them to keep it from us?
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
A massive voter turnout, hopefully bigger
than the 1964 LBJ/Goldwater election, will nip a lot of the cheating, etc. horsecrap in the bud. I hear ya, PR.
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
In the 2016 Dem primary...
Bernie officially won 23 out of 55 primary contests (and actually won a bunch more than that) including MI, WI, & MN.
In his two previous Presidential attempts combined, Joe Biden only ever actually ran in one primary/caucus (Iowa 2008) and received .9% of the vote. Biden has never won any type of election outside his home state of Delaware and the last time he ran in a competitive contest there was 1972.
And yet they tell me Biden is the frontrunner....
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Of course he's the front-runner
He's taken more big donor cash than anyone else, and that's what counts, right? You don't think the DNC would actually allow the riff-raff to choose their nominee do you?
Watch what happens as either Bernie or Liz takes the nomination, the DNC will sabotage them, preferring Trump over either of them.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
Biden never made it out of Iowa the other 2 times he ran
and he dropped out early so why anyone thinks that the 3rd time is the charms tells me that they will rig it for him this time. Of course we saw state after state rigging for Her. Remember how the exit polls didn't match the vote tallies? The media first questioned what was going on until they got orders to not do exit polling anymore. I think it was Virginia the Bernie beat Her 44-36, but when they added in the delegates or SDs she came out the winner. If democrats planned on running a fair election they would get rid of the SDs. Pushing them to the second round just shows more plans to rig the primary.
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Onward, JnH, thank you.
So worth repeating:
That the so called adults keep taking about beating Trump like it’s something unique to whatever candidate they’re pushing drives me nuts. Also; “not Trump” didn’t win in 2016 and it won’t win in 2020.
Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.
Trump wasn't
the incumbent in 2016, and people looked at him more as a curiosity and question mark rather than the far-right authoritarian wannabe dictator he has shown himself to be.
This time therefore it will be easier for the D nominee -- people have already formed strong views about the danger of Trump continuing in office, and many will be voting out of fear. The D nominee just needs to be semi-coherent and competent and show up not drooling (this would probably exclude Biden). And no anti-Trump major 3d party contender too.
And since many have not experienced a catastrophe
and quite a few have 401K statements that look good, they may decide not to rock the boat with the Scary Socialist who (R)'s are already saying is a Communist who wants to turn the USA into Cuba or Zimbabwe or Venezuela. Also, I see people commenting that Bernie wants to nationalize the stock market and confiscate your IRA.
In 2016 the choice would have been between an established experience US Senator and TV clown. Now the TV clown is the the experienced President and the Senator has tremendous push-back from his own nominal Party and zero support from any TV network.
Then there is the all important Facebook ...
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
@The Voice In the Wilderness
The decades-long run of fiscal irresponsibility, central banks bailing out corporate pirates and screwing savers, off-shoring of manufacturing and such will likely turn the US into Zimbabwe-with-nukes soon enough without any help from Bernie...
Tell that to the sheeple!
Who supposedly blew an election because of 40 facebook ads.
Democracy is dead, but it was suicide, not murder, despite the murder attempts.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Many have indeed
experienced a catastrophe and its name is Donald Trump. This is so even for some of those who voted for him, even if still they are not quite yet ready to vote against him. And re those who would regard Bernie as a communist threat, these are far-right memes that would mostly be confined to that fringe group which is already in thrall to the Donald.
And if it was only a matter of the economy or one's 401k, then Hillary, coming off a good economy under Obama, would have won in both the PV and EC.
I don't share your optimism re. centrist candidates
I don't think a centrist candidate can beat Trump. I consider Warren a centrist and it seems she is dropping below the 15% threshold to pick up delegates, so her chances of being the nominee seem to be greatly diminished.
Edit/ fixed typos and adding: It perplexes me why people vote for candidates who clearly won't get the 15% of the state vote needed to be awarded delegates. I can relate to a protest vote but it still doesn't seem to accomplish anything re. the existential environmental crisis that imminently confronts us.
This article from June 2019 about an paper by economist Thomas Piketty popped up in my radar yesterday: "There is hard data that shows that a centrist Democrat would be a losing candidate / Economist Thomas Piketty wrote a paper about this in 2018, though the Democrats paid no attention"
Just a couple of snippets:
My father told me of this
He said back in the '30s both the Communists and the Bund were strong.
Some here have criticized FDR for saving capitalism, implying that the alternative would have been The Soviet Socialist States of America. But just as likely (more likely IMHO) would be the Aryan States of America. Jim crow would have been the order of the day and America might have attacked Canada as Hitler waged war on England. No cross-Atlantic convoys. U-boat refits in Portsmouth NH, pretty much sealing England's fate. True, Russia fought hard, but how far would they get with Germany having no need for an Atlantic Wall and no Murmansk runs?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
We are indeed at a pivotal moment in our history
I'm hoping (and trying to do what I can) for the best but preparing myself for the worst.
Solidarity or bust.
Bernie or dust.
EW has fallen to
the point of almost being beyond recovery, and so she might only be in the discussion for VP purposes. As to being a centrist, that is your opinion, which is not shared by the larger electorate which would easily consider someone calling for a wealth tax and something approaching M4A as a progressive. I understand your take on her, but it's just too extreme and cynical. Like some of the posters here who don't consider AOC a real progressive. Sorry, no sale.
As for real centrists or those who have at least one foot in the Wall St-friendly corpDem camp, I am not at all optimistic about Biden's GE chances due to a lack of enthusiasm he would receive from the progressive wing. Bootajudge would have trouble with the AA/Latino communities, and so his electability would be in serious question. Bloomberg is the opportunistic billionaire who would be least likely among these 3 centrists of generating great turnout among Ds, although he would do better among Indies -- just not nearly enough to overcome the loss of prog-lib Dems.
By process of elimination, Klobbachair remains as a possible centrist winner, and showed well in the last debate, like she could take the battle to the Donald. I think she would do better to nudge things slightly leftward re M4A or tax on the wealthy w/o going full prog, which she isn't. Anyway, among a group of uninspiring centrists, she would be the least objectionable for me and probably the one most likely to win the general. Still prefer the Bernmeister though.
This should ideally be a two-for election that not only removes the dangerous Trump, but also one which gives us a chance to enact bold progressive change, and not just 4-8 years of Obamaism.
Warren might trade her delegates to Biden for the VP slot
If she does, would you still insist she's not a centrist? I don't think a "capitalist to the bones," such as Warren has emphatically described herself, will even entertain the notion of such horsetrading with Bernie.
I've never felt in step with the "larger electorate" confined to those who typically settle on the nominees of either major party but I don't consider myself an extremist either. . . . I prefer to think of myself as a bit to the left of FDR, as someone who would have voted for Henry Wallace. Unlike some here, I do consider AOC "progressive" but I've previously noted my discomfort with the term. This insightful article about white collar "populism" goes a long way in explaining why I feel that way.
I think everybody but Bernie is a sure loser against Trump.
As long as we're
conjuring up hypotheticals, Warren might also throw her delegates to Bernie if he's in a virtual tie w/Biden or a very close second. I just see her differently -- she is definitely of the political Establishment but not quite as centrist-oriented as you see it.
I would put her as one foot firmly planted in the prog/lib reform wing, the other dipping some toes strategically in the centrist-Estab wing for political purposes and b/c she is not naturally a bomb-thrower type. Roughly in the FDR mold, or Ted Kennedy. As such, and all things otherwise being equal, I would think if presented with two roughly equal competing hypothetical situations involving favoring Bernie or Biden, that she would choose the Bernmeister. Obviously she would be making a careful political calculation, as all pols do, and would pick not just considering ideology but also based on which horse would actually give her the best chance to become VP.
I too am not exactly part of the "larger Dem electorate" but I do recognize that about half the party does not self-identify as prog-lib but rather moderate and even some on the conservative side. It's just acknowledging reality, and it's always helpful to remind ourselves that there's a bigger world out there beyond this board which may not see things as we do.
Finally, I've been trying to offer some pushback against what looks to be a majority mindset here of fearing the big bad Donald and overestimating his re-elect prospects. I think he's in trouble on this one, and I also think he knows it. If there's one thing I fear, it's what he will do to prevent being ousted from office. My leading scenarios have him ginning up a phony war against Iran just before the election, rally around the flag time, or his declaring the election outcome where he loses to be "rigged" and thereby he refuses to accept the results. That would make for civil war conditions.
We def don't agree about Warren in many respects
But, yea, we'll see.
I guess we agree about her being practical (I'd call it self-serving) and non-ideological, though. Hey, if you have a chance, do read that Jacobin article I linked above. It's lengthy but I think really good as is the pretty much and maybe all the current issue on "populism." I've subbed for about 3 years now and I think it's one of their best issues I've seen. I don't work for or have any affiliation or relationship other than subscriber with the publication.
Finally, it's difficult to engage in discussion here now coz it seems the replies to comments notifications are messed up, at least on my account. So pardon me if I miss a reply.
Bernie can certainly win the general, but the primary?
I took Obama and Clinton comments as giving permission of the democratic party federal and state apparatus to cheat Bernie. If Bernie has the most delegates but not enough to win the nomination outright, the super delegates will put Biden, Warren, or even give the nomination to Clinton with Biden and others (except Tulsi) giving their votes to Clinton.
I am still a registered democrat, and will vote Bernie (or secondarily Tulsi).
Of course, the establish democrats and their base will forever cripple the national party. 2020 will of be course the same as 2016 with a good part of the base not showing up. Only the democrats are talented enough to suppress good parts of their base. I can't see how younger Bernie supporters will fall in line in the general. Biden, Warren, and Hillary will win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College.
Bernie will be marginalized and become much like Dennis Kucinich forever ignored by main stream media and absolutely "digitally exiled" forever. He will also lose his young base of voters if he supports the democratic party back room chosen candidate.
Idiocracy and 1984
In some ways the world is very simple. That is, from a certain point of view, the obvious solutions are the most resilient solutions. I spent 35 years (in the company of a rather large group of activists) demonstrating this thesis. Better yet literature, theater, movies, and other popular fiction are replete with virtual tutorials on how to construct a truly just, and equitable society.
The problem is: It is far more interesting and fun to yell, shout epithets, and create divisiveness, strife, and tribalism. And we do all this so very well.
To actually solve problems requires "getting to the bottom" of the target problems. Start with fundamental truths and build rules, practices, and procedures upon the reality of those truths. Build in a bit of adaptability and surprise ! you have a functioning solution. This, we don't do so very well.
It is much easier to just talk in meta-language, truisms, and memes.
It is very clear the Democratic and the Republican Parties as corporate person-hoods have no interest in creating a fair and just society. In fact most (if not all) of the participants in these corporations do not understand that society is, in fact, a construct. Most (if not all) of the participants in these corporations don't understand that an economic structure being defined within a society is, in fact, a construct. These good corporate participants are unable to honestly address the relevant issues because they do not understand the fundamental issues.
Bernie is not a member of the above corporations. Many of us are not members of the above corporations. The "getting to the bottom" of problems is not really all that difficult, but most people don't really want to solve the problems at hand. I know many people who do want to solve problems, but for various reasons they get no traction.
If Bernie does not win we will continue our journey into the abyss.
RIP
Greetings PriceRip. Agree with your comment. Hope
you and yours are having a safe and enjoyable peaceful Holiday Season.
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
Warren might give her delegates to Biden to get the VP slot
duplicate removed
Yep. And there's no chance she'll give them to Bernie. In the
end rather than diluting Biden's stink, it will just get all over EW.